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Round 1 - Sifting through the tea leaves ....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by PHINANALYST, Apr 19, 2011.

  1. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    Thanks to Boom and the gang at Universal and some other sites, and sorting through both our needs and personal workouts - we 'should' be able to narrow down RD 1 choices to the following:

    G: Pouncey / Hudson, Rackley

    QB: Newton, Ponder, Mallett, Locker, and CKap

    RB: Ingram / LeShoure, Williams

    SOLB: Quinn, Smith

    WOLB: Miller

    NT: Luiget, Wilkerson

    We did not (to date) bring in any of the top WRs for a personal workout, neither did we bring in any of the top Ts.

    Of this list, i expect all 3 X LBs to be gone - along with Newton; but a QB run could change that. Quinn and Smith are wildcards ....

    Where we 'seem' to focused our efforts for early picks (RD1 & potentially 2): QB, RB, SOLB, G and NT ....

    I've said many times that i do not like these QBs in RD1, most noteably CKap - who i have been on record stating that this is the guy i like most, but have a hard time paying a high price for him. I wish Ponder was a little taller.

    I've also said that i wouldn't draft a RB in RD1 either - unless there was an unbelievable talent, which there isn't.

    One could also argue that Wilkerson or Pouncey @15 is too high.

    I still am convinced we will move down to the lower part of RD1, if given a partner -- and pick CKap, Ponder, Pouncey or Wilkerson ...

    I also believe that the lower rounds are easier to predict: 5-7 will be RB, CB/S and WR ... we've seemed to focus a lot of effort (multiple personal workouts) on later round picks in these categories.

    It's 2-4 that are the most cloudy: with QB (2-3), RB (2-3), OLB (2-3), G (2-4), C (4), TE (3) and NT (4) all possibilities.

    The biggest tease questions ... are the RD1 QB/RBs real or memorex ?? RB doesn't help us with any disinformation campaign - so that at least MUST be real.

    What i thought was a real possibility, but don't get that from everything being written -- is T as a potential priority. It doesn't seem likely that we'd draft a RT until later in the draft as a project -- if at all, which is surprising to me.

    Conventional wisdom says that we'll draft a RB in RD1, and again in RD5 ... unless we can recoup the RD2 pick, then i default back to the above -- with RB in RD2 and RD5.
     
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  2. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Add in the premium position concept and the pick is either a SOLB or a QB. Since they liked Misi's play (as far as I recall) they may look for an extra pass rusher in the later rounds of FA. Wild guess it's a durable QB, not one that has had his share of injuries. It's someone who can kill off of the play action and will push the ball. Ryan Mallet come on down.
     
  3. Shamboubou

    Shamboubou Well-Known Member

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    Thats why I dont really think there is any chance of us moving down. Just like you said, everybody thats going to be left there really is going to be taken to high for the talent. So there isn't much of a chance of getting a team to trade up for a player that most believe shouldn't be taken until the late 1st or 2nd round anyway.

    IMO...We have Henne, not that thats saying much, but we have him and he's shown he can be an NFL starting QB. Hasn't shown that he can be great by any means but he can play the position. What we dont have what so ever is a RB. So I'm going to say that we take Ingram with the #15 pick. I'm not going to be overly excited about the pick, but I wont be upset by it. The guy won the Heisman in the hardest NCAAF conference, he has skill. Lets just hope he can put on a repeat performance here in the NFL in a Dolphins Jersey and take a little pressure off Henne.
     
  4. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Here's a dark horse 1st round pick: CB Jimmy Smith. Top 10 talent <that we had a private with IIRC> whom we 'could' jump on if we feel his red flags are a thing of the past and he's matured & grown from them. According to Wes Bunting, scouts are seeing him as a legit mid-late 1st round pick.

    Since NE has Brady, Jets are developing Sanchez, and Buffalo likes to spread it out, it could make sense to bolster the secondary from a strategic stand point, especially if the Bills happen to take Gabbert.

    Plus, in 2011 we also play Houston, SD, Giants, Cowboys, Raiders, Broncos, and Eagles. (all total: we play 9 games vs an offense ranked top 11 passing YPG; 7 of our games are vs a top 10 offense in pass TDs; 9 games vs an offense ranked top 11 in 20+ yard pass plays; 9 games vs an offense ranked top 10 in 40+ yard pass plays).

    This is coming from a secondary that ranked: 30th & 20th the past 2 seasons in 20+ yard receptions allowed (57, 50); 32nd & 26th in 40+ yard receptions (17, 11); 32nd & 19th in yards per reception (8.2, 7.1); 25th & 25th in longest reception allowed (81 yard TD & 86 yard TD); 16th & 28th in INTs (15, 11); and 19th & 18th in passer rating allowed (87, 85). It's hard to have an elite defense in a passing league with numbers like these.

    Our secondary allowed too many big pass plays that impacted the outcome of games (Mike Wallace & Braylon Edwards come to mind, and Greg Jennings even though we overcame his TD). We allowed 7 TDs of 30+ yards to WRs. The Packers & Steelers, on the other hand, allowed only 4 combined. This could be the difference between us allowing 21 pts/game and GB & Pitt's 15. If we continue to play for FGs, we're gonna need those 6 points.

    I'm not saying this is my first choice, but it's something to consider when trying to establish an elite defense with the ranks of Pitt & GB.
     
  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Teams are saying the Redskins will go QB (probably Mallett over Locker) while also believing the Rams might be addressing their biggest need at Dline. If this happens, then a scenario exists where Julio Jones is sitting at 15.

    Would anyone like Julio, Taiwan Jones, and Virgil Green?
     
  6. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    I'm wondering. Why would any team NOT be leaking false info at this point in the draft? And why would anyone believe anything that's being rumored to happen a week before the draft? I'm just sayin.
     
  7. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    They might pick Julio based on his run-blocking and the interest they gave Dez Bryant last year (even after Marshall I think). I don't think the Redskins go with Mallet. They like mobility.
     
  8. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Sorry....... it's not coming from the actual team themselves but from what other teams seem to be speculating (according to National Football Post).
     
  9. SnakeoilSeller

    SnakeoilSeller New Member

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    Mallet does not fit Shanny's typical QB. He likes mobile QB's, Mallett certainly does not fit that description.
     
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  10. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's what I thought, but National Football Post said their "source" told them that Mallett may in fact be the target rather than Locker. I don't buy into this kind of stuff, but I don't entirely dismiss it either.
     
  11. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Given the Dolphins needs, I'd take Ingram over any WR in the draft.
     
  12. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'd take Green, Julio, and Little over Ingram.
     
  13. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    While I think the Dolphins would love to trade down to pick up a second round pick. This does not appear to be a draft where there are a lot of top caliber players other teams would want to trade up for at pick number 15. The Dolphins will probably be stuck with making a selection with this pick and will be forced to wait until round number three to make their next pick. I don't see this being a very productive draft for the Dolphins in regards to finding immediate help for the 2011 season. With no free agency and with them unable to pick up free agents from college until a new CBA is signed. I fear the Dolphins are for a long 2011 football season. It appears they will continue to fall behind the Patriots and Jets in the AFC East and they will be lucky next year to have a better record than the Bills. The only good that might come from the upcoming season is that the owner might finally wake up and get rid of Ireland and Sparano and actually bring in a GM and a head coach who can finally turn this organization around after a decade of seeing the Dolphins join the bottom feeders of the NFL.
     
  14. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    i'm not sure that's necessarily true ... given other teams interest in QB / T / DE ... there is reason to move up. Just, outside of QB -- and i even debate that one ... those are not immediate impact needs for us, thankfully.
     
  15. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    i don't buy the whole CB thing (even if we did bring in Smith for a PW) ... Davis, Carroll and Smith are a nice group to have (and who knows if Wallace will show back up) ... i do think we really like to have the chance to grab Wilson in the later rounds though, same thing for S and Sands ... i would go with Quinn or Smith at SOLB long before Smith at CB (i'm quite positive we'll draft a SOLB NLT RD4).

    i don't think we've brought in a RD1/2 TE for a PW ... and same for the top WRs ... but it would be interesting if Julio did just happen to be sitting there (i just don't think we give that much of a chance) - we've seemed to focus our efforts into later RD fast, quick STs type guys ....
     

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