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Rosen Returns

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Feb 19, 2020.

  1. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    PFT is reporting that the Dolphins are expected to retain Rosen in 2020. I think that the Dolphins are really putting effort in doing the right thing in terms of QB. Rosen is young and talented. I really do think that there is a chance that he could be a good QB in the future.

    I feel bad that this poor dude is in a different system every year.
     
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  2. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend Club Member

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    the next dimension
    Someone has to wash the toilets.
     
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  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    If the team ends up drafting a QB in the first round, I'll be hoping that Rosen just shows up in camp and totally outclasses him the whole month, earning the starting job and keeping the rookie on the bench. Very little would be sweeter.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think it's so obvious Rosen's a bust it's best to move on (seriously.. ONLY starting QB I can find since 1978 who hasn't even for ONE game played average statistically over his first 16 games!). But if he's going to be some 3rd string QB behind whoever we draft and Fitz and he's not eating up much cap, I guess it's not hurting us much.

    I don't like the decision though. I'd rather draft a 2nd QB in the 7th round and hope to win a lottery that way than stick with Rosen.
     
  5. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rosen is on a favorable contract. And I'm sure there's some GM out there who still thinks he can turn Rosen into a viable starter. There's always somebody who will claim, "he was a high pick for a reason". That has some value. Not a lot, but some. I would love to see Rosen light up some preseason defense and spur some team to trade for him. IMO it would be the best thing for him and for the Dolphins.
     
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  6. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    A trade seems to be the best for us, though I wouldn't be shocked if we tried to do it during the draft weekend, even if only for like a 6th. Hanging onto duds of first rounders is just a trap, cut your losses and move on.

    The original news imo smells like smoke, hoping to drive up minimal value for a guy who just doesn't look good at all.
     
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  7. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I hope it is for the trade bait, not any actual plan to put him on the field.

    Maybe he needs time and the right environment to blossom. I’d be happier to see another team take that gamble.
     
  8. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Yeah, there are plenty of XFL teams that could use him..
     
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  9. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Honestly he didnt play as poorly as some people here would have you believe.

    I have no issue retaining him and letting him compete fairly. He will only win if hes better.
     
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  10. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Naw very favorable contract with upside. Keep him as number 2 behind the starter and bring in an injured qb tua to ride the bench next year that’s what I think they are going to do
     
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  11. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I expected him to return but i have doubts he makes the team after the final week of preseason..

    he isnt the quarterback of this franchise... thats very clear..
     
  12. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rosen is two months younger than Joe Burrow. I'm not sure why anyone would think he cannot improve.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Of course he can improve. No one said he couldn't. I mean.. it's actually pretty hard to stay at the bottom consistently so sure if you kept playing him he'd at SOME point have a game with better than league average stats. And with new QB's constantly coming into the league he'd probably not keep his league worst ranking among starters like he had in 2018 (filter by rating to get only qualifying starters).
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/passing.htm

    He didn't qualify to be on that list in 2019, but he was certainly on track to be by FAR the worst QB statistically in 2019 lol.

    And the difference between Rosen and Burrow, Tua or any other college QB is that Rosen has now played a full season's worth in the NFL. So the uncertainty that surrounds these other college QB's isn't there with Rosen, which in this particular case works against him.

    Also, Rosen has the distinction of being the ONLY QB picked top 10 that was traded away after only ONE season lol (not counting QB's traded before their rookie season). Worse, the reason for the trade from Arizona's perspective was to find a better QB!

    Rosen = bust. Best to cut bad investments than hoping beyond hope there's some hidden gem in there.
     
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  14. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Also, don't we usually just keep 2 QB's during the season? Now, if we bring in a guy who forces us, through his play, to keep a 3rd, then I am all for it. Otherwise, we need to churn that slot just like we do at other positions, IMO.
     
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  15. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    In a post apocalyptic world, a little Jewish quarterback who feels that he never got his fair chance to prove himself, has his memory and DNA decoded and uploaded into a cyborg which then begins to take over, dominate and terrify the NFL. Come see the true story come to life on the big screen in the soon to be, blockbuster, hit movie of the summer, Rosen Returns.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2020
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  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I would argue until I'm blue in the face that if you put nearly any 21/22 year old QB into the situations that he was in with the Cardinals and Fins, that they would do little better.
     
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  17. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rosens first starts were better than Fitzs, the team was historically awful to start the year. They churned 25% of the roster the week before the season started. It doesn't matter if he develops enough to justify top 10 pick, Miami needs him to be a viable backup, he's not making much money. $2 Million, and the third qb roster spot, with the Dolohins cap situation, for a player with potential is not a very big investment. His issues seem mental and correctable. He can make any throw, and has a feel for the pocket. He has to improve with his reads and composure. Not insignificant things to be sure, but he just turned 23. He is still around year younger than Tannehill was his rookie season. Why wouldn't they try to develop that?
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Kyler Murray is 22 with Arizona, basically same team, and performed slightly below league average his rookie year, not bottom of the barrel. It's the QB, not the "situation", which btw is hard to independently observe anyway.

    And Murray isn't alone. Winston was 21 and played slightly below average statistically, same with Smith and Bledsoe as 22 year olds, and Stafford and Vick were playing at slightly above average levels at 22.

    Like I said in my first post, for the cap space he's taking away it's not that big of an issue, especially if he's just 3rd string. But if you already have evidence he'll never turn into anything more than average (if at all that), try developing someone NEW! I'd even be fine with an undrafted QB. At least there's greater chance you might uncover a hidden gem, you know like Warner, Moon or Romo.
     
  19. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Because people have this idea that once you've played in the NFL you are what you are. To them there is no such thing as working on your weaknesses or developing.

    Most guys do fail to become true impact players regardless of how much time they are given. That's just because the NFL is a tough league to play and succeed in, obviously. Doesnt mean some guys cant develop and turn the corner. It needs to be treated on a case by case basis.
     
  20. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's not about stats, its always been about what he's shown on film. Rosen was only better than Fitz statistically b/c he had several 50/50 balls go his way. He wasn't better on film. Reality is that despite how smart he's supposed to be, his reads and processing speed have always been slow. When somebody doesn't seem to progress over several years it's difficult to have faith he will progress in the future. From the reports I've heard, the coaching staff was shocked when he got to camp with how bad he was. He only got those starts b/c Ross and Marino bullied the coaches into "seeing what we've got". And when Fitz replaced Rosen the difference in that game was remarkable. It would be great for Miami if Rosen were actually developing, but my guess is that staff doesn't believe he will. His contract is cheap so I expect he'll stick around as the third guy just b/c of that or at least until/if they can get some other team to bank on the "he's young and may progress" angle.
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    People can of course disagree about how "the situation" should be measured, but it's the case that in 2019 the Dolphins were 0.89 standard deviations below the league mean in 2019 in points scored, and 1.77 standard deviations below the league mean in 2019 in points differential. Rosen's season passer rating (52) on the other hand was a whopping 2.89 standard deviations below the league mean in 2019 (minimum number of pass attempts = 100).
     
  22. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    The Dolphins in the first half of the season, with both Rosen and Beardo at QB, were completely awful. They were average the second half after they got their (stuff) together. Rosen didn't get to play once they did.
     
  23. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Which is telling, that in a "meaningless" season Rosen couldn't even get a shot.
     
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  24. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Its an X against the coaching staff, no question. And then Flores went and fired the OC that ran the system that worked so well in the second half of the year also. It certainly has me worried about him, and the direction that the team will be taking. The next few years could end up looking like one of the all time missed opprotunities by a NFL team.
     
  25. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    From memory, I can recall three TD passes Rosen threw that were dropped.

    Suppose they were caught, and his yardage was raised significantly because of them (Grant deep drops), his QB rating would be virtually identical to last year's stats.
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    lol.. so even IF you give him 3 extra TD's he's statistically the worst starting QB in the NFL (that's what he was in 2018).

    Either way, you don't remove dropped passes for one QB but not for all others when comparing.
     
  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    You can't just blindly look at stats to come up with an answer either. Everything is subjective.
     
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  28. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Again telling. (Plus, I don't know if it worked as well as we want to think. We employed one of the worst rushing attacks of all time.)


    When you are at the bottom of the barrel, it's not just random chance and happenstance.

    Rosen is just not very good.
     
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  29. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    The rushing attack did suck. We knew going in that we had the league's worst offensive line, and the runners weren't very good either. But the passing attack over the last half or so, both in style and in production, was the best we've had in a long, long time.
     
  30. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    That's not saying much to be frank. That said, it wasn't bad by any means, but I think we may be overrating what went on over a rather small stretch of time and ignoring some red flags. I have faith that Gailey and the rebuilt offensive staff can get points and yards, especially with general talent improvement. To circle back to the OP, I have 0 faith that Rosen is in any way a significant part of those plans. This just strikes me as a case of hanging onto the raw potential of a highly drafted prospect ... when the reality is that many prospects just never live up to the hype we build around them. Correct me if I am wrong, but you were a big Rosen guy coming out of college, yes? It's not a shock in such a case to hang onto hope for a guy you liked in that case (and is likely something we are all guilty of), but reality is bearing out differently for Rosen.

    I'm with CBrad on this one - unless Rosen shows SIGNIFICANT improvement to the staff early on, there is no reason to keep him and block a slot.
     
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Yes, I love Rosen. And he's gotten so little playing time, with such awful surroundings, and is still as young as many rookies, that I see absolutely zero reason to move on and/or not give him every chance to be the long term starter.
     
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  32. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    In Troy Aikman's rookie year, at age 23, his team lost all eleven of the games he started. He threw 9 TD passes vs 18 picks. His completion percentage was 52.9, and his rating was 55.7.

    In his second season, his team also had a losing record in his starts. He threw 11 TD passes vs 18 picks. His completion percentage was 56.6, and his rating was 66.6.

    Then after that, as the team got better around him and he gained more experience, his play of course improved and he went on to be a very good starting QB for a decade before injuries ended his career. Should Jimmy Johnson have pulled the plug on Aikman, who played like crap until he was almost 26 years old?
     
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  33. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    If they draft Tua, or even Love, you want those guys to sit and learn for AT LEAST half the NFL season -even all of 2020. That means you need a backup to Fitzmagic. If he goes down with a torn ACL in week one, or even week six, you DO NOT want to send Tua or Love out there.

    So, Rosen is cheap and a moderately experienced starter in the NFL. He already cost a second round pick, so why not get some value out of him by making him your #2 QB? Taking up an extra roster spot with three QBs is just part of the price of protecting your rookie QB until they are ready to play.

    Why all the worry about Rosen being a worse case scenario? Rosen tanks and we go 3-13? End up with the #1 or #2 pick in 2021? On the other hand, what if the light comes on for Rosen and we end up 8-8/9-7? So we let him battle Tua/Love in 2021 and trade away the loser of that battle for some picks.
     
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  34. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He also had clear drops of non 50/50 balls that didn't go his way. I'm not sure where you are getting that he hasn't progressed over several years, unless you think he is the same now as he was in college? I have far more faith in our coaching staff than to think reports that Marino and Ross bulling them could be accurate. A lot of people seem to have made up their minds about Rosen after a pretty limited body of work, and that's fine. I don't have my mind made up. If Flores and Co, drop him, then that's an indictment that I'd believe. I am not going to write off a 23 yr old kid, with his clear arm talent, when my standard is to improve enough to be a viable 3rd string QB, and show that he's improving enough to likely be a #2 in 2021. There hasn't been much hesitation to get rid of players.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    There's a ton of stuff that isn't subjective, and no one is blindly looking at stats. It's just that the statistical argument is real strong, especially the inability to perform at least average in the first 16 games. Not even Ryan Leaf was THAT bad.

    And as I pointed out before, Rosen's the ONLY top 10 pick at QB that was jettisoned after a single year starting. That's GM's and coaches speaking. Flores going with Fitz over Rosen is also the coaches speaking. You say that was an "X" on the coaching staff, but was it? I think it's more likely the coaching staff was competent enough to see Rosen isn't the solution after a few games (and what they see during practice) that they decided it's best for the franchise to start Fitz.

    And if we pick a QB high in the draft this year, that's also a big negative against Rosen.

    There are a lot of arrows, from stats to coaching decisions to GM decisions, pointing in the same direction here: Rosen = BUST. The only thing pointing in the opposite direction is blind hope, which isn't a strategy.
     
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  36. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Are you going to totally ignore that Arizona changed coaching staffs and the new guy drafted the gimmick player he wanted instead of the real passer?
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    They drafted a new QB because Rosen was so terrible that even a "gimmick player" could easily outperform him.

    You seem to think that a rookie QB can't shine despite a bad coach. Look no further than Baker Mayfield who was also taken in the 2018 draft to see what a better QB (almost a redundant description when comparing to Rosen) can do with a terrible coaching staff.

    Unlike Rosen, Mayfield went to by far the worst team in the NFL with a 1-31 record in the previous two seasons. His HC (Jackson) was fired mid-season and replaced with another HC (Williams) who was then replaced with a 3rd HC (Kitchens) for 2019.

    Unlike Rosen, Mayfield rallied a team that went 0-16 the previous season to 6 wins, and anyone who saw those games saw that Mayfield was a MAJOR reason for those wins. Statistically, Mayfield was a tad above average, unlike "bottom of the barrel" Rosen.

    Note that Cleveland did NOT trade away Mayfield when they changed HC's. Are you going to ignore that?
     
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  38. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Either you have it or you dont. And he clearly doesnt have IT. The last thing i want is the Dolphins to become the Houston Rockets of the NFL, and i see a lot of fans on this forum trying to moneyball our team with analytics.

    “Oh if you could just get this player and this player, then look what his stats could potentially be.” They throw in all kinds of formulas and PFF grades over here in their arguments.

    pass on all that nonsense.. there was nothing analytics or PFF grades did that helped us win the 5 games we did this season, especially against the Patriots, none of which Rosen had any significant role in.
     
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  39. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We are talking about the 3rd QB spot here. Rosen has a great arm when he keeps his mechanics and a decent feel for the pocket. He is consistently late on his reads and loses his mechanics when he gets rattled. He has a bad hitch when he's in his head and not trusting his eyes. No money ball, no mythical "IT" factor needed. Per reports, he spent most of last season working on getting the ball out quicker. If he is going to have a chance at a career, even one as a backup, that's what he's got to do. I have no idea what sort of progress he has made. I just don't think anyone else here does either.
     
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  40. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Have a look at a different QB, Gardner Minshew. Gardner had mechanical issues with throwing the ball which caused him to drop to the 6th round, but he had the mental processing speed and leadership ability that Rosen has not shown in his NFL career to date. The mechanical issues were i proved with coaching and he went 6-6 as a starter (arguably you could say 7-7 as he had 2 games as a backup where he threw 25+ passes).

    I get that Rosen throws a much nicer ball than Minshew. I get that Minshew throws a lot of wounded ducks. But the NFL isn’t figure skating - you don’t get style points.

    Whoever you compare Rosen too, Rosen ends up on the wrong end of the comparison. He loses against 1st round rookie QBs, he loses against late round rookie QBs. The only QBs he beats are those that get cut without playing in the NFL. Quite frankly from what he has shown on the field there is strong possibility that it’s only his draft status as a top 10 pick that’s keeping him on an NFL roster.

    I would love for Rosen to prove me wrong. I think it would be a great thing for the Dolphins. I am just not prepared to invest anything in the hope that he will be the one that is the exception.
     

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