As you all know, we face the Baltimore Ravens tomorrow, who are starting rookie Joe Flacco at quarterback. This is a fairly rare occurrence, it's completely unheard of to have 2 rookies (Atlanta's Matt Ryan being the other) starting in the playoffs. I'm a big believer in looking at history to try and predict future performance. To try and gauge what to expect when we face Flacco tomorrow, I thought we should look at the playoff statistics of all previous rookie quarterbacks. [Table]Year Player Com Att % Yards TD Int 1983 Dan Marino 15 25 60% 193 2 2 1985 Bernie Kosar 10 19 52.6% 66 1 1 1986 Jim Everett 9 18 50.0% 136 1 2 1991 Todd Marinovich 12 23 52.2 140 0 4 1999 Shaun King 15 32 46.9 157 1 1 2004 Ben Roethlisberger 17 30 56.7 181 1 2[/table] As you can see, this is a small list, with a total of six players, lead by our own Dan Marino, who was clearly on a different level as it relates to quarterbacking. Interestly enough, Bernie Kosar's first game also involved the Dolphins, as he faced us. In other words, after tomorrow's spate of games the Miami Dolphins will have been involved in 3 out of 8 of them - 37.5% of them - in something of an odd statistical coincidence. Marino's performance is still the benchmark, but he is followed closely by the more recent players on this list, Ben Roethlisberger and then Shaun King. Coincidentally, these two players (Big Ben and King) are the only 2 players to win a playoff game - so recent history does favor the Ravens somewhat, though rookie quarterbacks overall are only 2-4 in the playoffs. To try and guess how Flacco may perform, we can average the statistics from these previous players. If we aggregate the performance of these six individuals, here's what we come up with: [table]Year Player Com Att % Yards TD Int 2008 Flacco (Estimated) 13 25 52.0% 145 1 2[/table] Even if we through out the best and worst games in terms of numbers (Marino and Kosar, respectively), we still get very similar numbers - though the projected touchdowns drops to .75 and projected interceptions rise to 2.25. In other words, we may as well leave them in, particularly since our sample size is so small. Looking at these numbers, I believe we are likely to benefit from Flacco experiencing some rookie jitters tomorrow. All of these quarterbacks threw interceptions, and over half (4 out of 6) threw multiple interceptions. Most fared better against the pass rush, taking on average just over 1 sack per game. Only Marinovich and King suffered multiple sacks (2 each), and only our own Dan Marino avoided the rush altogether. It's hard to quantify just how terrible Todd Marinovich's game in 1991 was, he leads the way in poor performances with 4 picks (2 more than anyone else on our list), 2 sacks (tied for the most), and 1 fumble lost. Interestingly enough, all of the other QBs held on to the ball. So in other words, it's likely for us to pick off Flacco at least once tomorrow - and probable that we will intercept him at least twice. We should be able to get to him at least once tomorrow, though the chances of a multi-sack outing, especially with our up-and-down pass rush, are unlikely. I also don't see Flacco turning the ball over tomorrow, as rookie quarterbacks have a propensity for interceptions, but don't seem to put the ball on the ground tomorrow. I don't believe the Ravens will rely on Flacco to win this game. Part of that is due to the fact that he is a rookie, and as we can see, rookie quarterback performance is hit and miss at best. Part of that is also due to the fact that the Ravens don't rely on Flacco to win games, much like the Steelers of 2004; this team relies on a staunch defense bolstered by a healthy running game. In other words, our opportunity to win the game relies on two things: Make Flacco Win - We have to shut down the Ravens strong running game, forcing them to become a passing team and putting the game squarely on Flacco's rookie shoulders. Having Solia and Ferguson available for this game is huge, as we really missed them the last time out. Score Points - We have to find a way to put some points up against the Ravens and move the ball against their defense. With a defense that features Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs, that's easier said than done. Pennington is the perfect QB for this task; he's not rattled by the big names of Baltimore, and he's highly acccurate down the field. If we can do those two things, then history shows that rookie quarterbacks are (usually) not at their best in the playoffs. Only our own Dan Marino put up a great game in the playoffs, other rookie quarterbacks have usually struggled, though I doubt Joe Flacco suddenly reverts into Todd Marinovich. In all honesty I like our chances to win tomorrow. If history is any indication, we are in for a great game.
Great analysis, but as far as the worst game goes by statistics it isn't Kosar. It's Todd Marinovich who threw 4 INT's to 0 TD's. I understand you say that later, but if you were to throw out Marino and Todd's games the number would be ever so slightly different.
I probably should have quantified that I was looking at yardage totals for the basis of taking away the high and low. I'd agree with you though - Marinovich was also sacked twice and gave away the ball on a fumble, for a total of 5 turnovers.
Ah okay that makes more sense to me now. Regardless of what we take away or don't take away though, I think the point remains that rookie QB's don't fare well in playoff situations.
Thought I would update this thread with how Matt Ryan did during today's game.. It's difficult how to quantify Ryan's performance against the Cardinals. No one has done as much to both help and hurt their team at the same time. First of all, Ryan set a number of records in last night's game. He set rookie playoff records (at least in their first game, which is what we are looking at here) for completions, attempts, and yards. He tied Marino's record for TD passes in a game. On the negative side though, he took 3 sacks (the highest total for a rookie starting his first playoff game to date), and also threw 2 picks. Ryan gave up a lot of points. He lost a fumble that was returned for a TD, and took a safety. All told this is a total of 4 giveaways, second only to Todd Marinovich's 5 turnover outing. Ultimately I'd view Ryan's game as a failure. Sure, he had a lot of decent passing statistics, but his team lost the game, he got sacked quite a bit, and he turned the ball over 4 times. Let's hope Flacco has a similar game tomorrow. Ryan joins Bernie Kosar, Jim Everett, and Todd Marinovich as rookie quarterbacks who started on the road and lost. (The two winners - Shaun King and Ben Roethlisberger - both won their games at home) That's a positive trend going into today's game against Baltimore.
Wow, that is a pretty worrying trend. But Joe is a weird Rookie. He plays better on the road. And he just seems alot more composed that Ryan, if you ask me.
That's my take on Joe. Joe gets sacked, Joe throws a pick, Joe tosses a 75-yard TD pass- his face never changes. I've never seen any rookie look so completely unfazed as Flacco. It's like watching Invasion of the Body Snatchers, or better yet, the Stepford Wives. But we will find out in less than 20 minutes, one way or the other!
