1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Resetting Expectations (Long Post Warning)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, May 2, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    15,009
    9,027
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Well... this has been a unique draft experience for me. On the one hand, the draft went as normal and unexpected picks came through - nothing unusual about that. However, on the other hand, I spent more time this year looking into draft prospects, considering needs and generally invested time in this draft than ever before. The Dolphins' rebuild and extra draft capital certainly contributed to that, and with the pressure on for this rebuild to be a success, my anticipation was higher than ever.

    So it was that I, much like many others, went into this draft with a number of expectations. They weren't anything odd. There was a general consensus on the Dolphins' needs, and then debate about which players would meet those needs. I had my own preferred players, of course, but I wasn't especially tied down to any one player.

    I went in excited.

    Then the draft happened - and so much of it was unexpected and disappointing.

    However, I have to ask myself why. Why was it disappointing? Because my hopes or expectations weren't met? That's hardly reason for complaint. So I decided it might be time to reset my expectations. To pull back to a wider perspective, see things afresh, and get a different angle on this draft - where maybe what Grier and Flores did might be better than what I had wanted them to do.

    So, dropping all thoughts about what I thought they should have done, I started by looking at what they did do. I wanted to see it as if I'd been oblivious to the draft the past few months and just now wander in and see what we've done.

    Here's how that looks:

    The #3 pick turned into a top tier WR (who they say was their top guy) and a 2023 1st.
    The #18 turned into the consensus best DE in the draft - albeit with a gamble on his health - and whatever intel the Dolphins have, we're not privy to it.
    The #36 tuned into an apparent scheme fit on a good, smart, safety.
    The #50 pick & an extra pick from the #3 trade, turn into the #42 pick and a OL talent in Eichenberg.
    The #81 pick grabbed the consensus best traditional TE.
    The 5th round pick turned into a 2022 4th rounder.
    Then two sevenths on an RB and tackle.

    What does that look like?

    It looks like investment in giving Tua weapons - a top tier receiver and a big TE. And with a focus on generating separation.
    It looks like a chance to improve two weaker areas of the defence - DE and S.
    It looks like an investment in the OL with two linemen, a starter and a prospect.
    And a prospect at running back.

    On closer inspection it also looks like Grier was targeting players offering intelligence, toughness and versatility - so they stuck to type/plan.

    It also looks like they tried to maximise value, having one eye on future drafts, and being cap conscious, and also, developing the run game by means of scheme, WR talent, and OL improvement.

    Viewed that way, it makes sense. Some picks are debatable. But everything seems to make sense, and the overall goal seems to be hard to argue with.

    The proof of the pudding, as they say, is in the eating. Was Grier right to offer this solution to the Dolphins' problems and develop the team? Only time will tell.

    It at least feels good that they have a plan and they're sticking to it.

    Do I have a right to feel disappointed with these picks or this strategy? Not really. I'm free to have an opinion and Grier is free to do what he wants. In fact, he had better do what he wants. No one needs a GM who just follows everyone else. All I really care about is that the Dolphins improve and become regular contenders.

    So, where does that leave me? Hopeful. The draft always throws curve balls. A number of the top selections will not pan out. A number of hidden gems will start to shine. Some players will get injured. Things won't go to plan. That's football. We have no choice but to wait and watch, and so, now, I'm okay with that.

    This wasn't a brainless draft. It was a focused draft. My attention now goes towards training camp and see who these players become and seeing what year 3 of the rebuild looks like. I knew the rebuild was a long term project and that we'd be seeing evidence of construction around for a while before things begin to look pretty. This definitely looks like Grier and Flores have a solid blueprint for the team they're building, and it's going to plan. I'm excited to see how it turns out.

    Essay over!

    Now, a few resources that have helped.

    Lots and lots of people like our draft. I find that interesting. More than that, I like having opinions and perspectives to consider. Broadening my horizons in football is a good thing.

    The Phinsider have a summary of media takes on the draft at this link - 2021 Miami Dolphins draft grades: Miami has top-five draft in NFL - The Phinsider

    Media Consensus:


    College Wins Above Average added in the draft:


    Athleticism added:


    Second, some real Dolphins fans who know the team, its history, have some positive things to say too. That's nice to hear right now. So, if you're looking for some takes on the Dolphins as they stand following the draft, from people who think they can tell what's going on and what we should look for, check these out:

    Travis Wingfield - DriveTime - Spotify – Drive Time with Travis Wingfield | Podcast on Spotify
    Kyle Crabbs - Locked on Dolphins - Spotify – Reacting To The Miami Dolphins' 2021 1st-Round Draft Haul - Locked On Dolphins - Daily Podcast On The Miami Dolphins | Podcast on Spotify
    Ace Above Head - (23) Miami Dolphins Continue to Draft According to the Plan | 2021 NFL Draft - YouTube

    I'm out!

    Fins up!
     
  2. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    15,009
    9,027
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
     
  3. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    3,278
    1,739
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    I would have given them a b- most of our picks have Injury history’s and I could counter that having Pitts over waddle would have been a bigger benefit to this team having them say we needed a big TE and selecting to trade out of contention doesn’t fly with me. He’s going to make Atlanta instantly better.
     
  4. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    7,522
    2,979
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Lakeland, FL
    The problem with this draft isn't so much who they DID draft (who all seem like very talented players) but who they COULD have drafted. If you have a chance to draft an O Lineman who is considered by most to have the potential to be a perennial pro-bowler, you take him and not a slot WR.
     
    hitman8, JJ_79, mlb1399 and 2 others like this.
  5. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    10,956
    4,068
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    I don't entirely disagree, but I would caution against pegging Waddle as "just a slot guy" here - he's a weapon, not just a slot guy, in much the same way that Pitts is a weapon and not a generic TE.

    Is Waddle the right guy over Pitts and Sewell? Time will tell. If we read it right and he plays to the potential, we have a Tyreek Hill level talent terrorizing the field. But, taking a non-traditional/prototype WR that high is breaking the mold and is definitely a risk. For our sake, I hope it works, and I am excited to hopefully see big plays all over between him and Fuller. Hopefully they can give defenses enough trouble to relieve pressure in the box and open up the run game more.

    That right there was the big failing though. I am aghast that we are running out next year with Gaskin and Brown as our lead backs. My other big concern is what the eff we are doing at center, the linchpin of the OL. Skura has probowl potential, but guys who get the yips in other sports (like baseball and golf) rarely get things back under control. Maybe they see Dieter as a convert, but it's news to everyone else.

    Clearly though, we had a plan to prioritize athleticism, explosion and playmakers. Waddle, Phillips and Holland are all guys that are freaks. If they stay healthy and live up to the potential, they will take the team up a level. Big if, big risk, but high reward.
     
    Ronnie Bass likes this.
  6. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    352
    358
    63
    Jul 8, 2020
    Here's the thing: We have some of the most knowledgable fans in the league and they put a lot into preparing for every draft. They watch tons of tape and read a lot of writers and (anonymous) scouts' opinions. But when there are 400-500 prospects, our abiity to investigate is limited. The Dolphins spent thousands of hours and more money than most of us will earn in a decade investigating these players. They talk to coaches, parents, high school counselors, hometown law enforcement, teammates and more. They do deep digs into their backgrounds to see if anybody got arrested in high school or college but had the charges disappear. They watch these young men up close on their pro days and talk to them exhaustively to see if they might say something - anything - that sounds alarm bells.

    We can't do that. We don't have the time or resources to approximate that level of research for a dozen players, let alone hundreds. I understand how a lot of us are let down by our draft. But I have read too many reviews that indicate most of the disappointment for what Grier and his team did lies within the fanbase. Almost every review so far has us in the top 10 and each one does that while acknowledging we missed out on adding a RB1.

    But we had a plan. We went with best player available and for better or worse, the result is what it we see. But I'm looking less at the holes we have and more toward how we anticipate mitigating that aspect of our ability. For example, we don't have a stud RB1 but we have a better line and enough weapons on the edges to make the runners we have better. Nobody's putting a safety in the box this year. And on defense, we need to generate sacks and although we added a heat seeking missile, we also have developing youth who might step up in a big way this season. And a back end that may be one of the best units in team history. An extra second of coverage is bound to result in extra sacks.

    I'm not mad at all. I'm geeked out, excited, hyped, bouncing off the walls and looking at the clock every five minutes waiting for the season to start.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,617
    10,131
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Speaking of expectations, people shouldn't expect the 2021 draft to be the missing piece to a SB run. The timeline for that is 2022-2023. So the big question is: did this draft improve the team and help build it towards a future SB run, yes or no?

    I don't see how anyone answers that with a negative. Defense played well enough last year, but to make sure that wasn't a fluke you keep plugging remaining holes, and we tried to do that. On offense there's no question the biggest issue was WRs not getting separation and the complete absence of a deep threat. Fuller and Waddle should help a lot and Tua should improve with his decision-making after a full offseason.

    Remember, statistically QB efficiency starts to level off around year 3-4, so that 2022-2023 timeframe is when we should be expecting to be a legit contender, not 2021. We're on track.

    Regarding the issue of not taking a RB or another position, first of all it's a passing league so if you have to prioritize, then you focus on improving the passing game and stopping it, and that's precisely what we did — WR, OT (to protect the QB), DE and S and even a TE to boot. I'm very happy Flores and Grier understand the new NFL isn't like the old one.

    That doesn't mean RB isn't unimportant. But think about that timeline again. We still have 1-2 drafts to go before the team should be a legit SB contender. So if RB is still an issue after 2021, then fix it in the next draft. This draft wasn't a homerun by any means for me, but I can't criticize it that much. There's clearly a plan, and the plan makes some sense.
     
    Phin McCool, EverFin, KeyFin and 3 others like this.
  8. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    352
    358
    63
    Jul 8, 2020
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

    35,948
    37,398
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    This is largely a matter of me wanting the Dolphins to be a different team that Grier and Flores apparently do, but I'm extremely disappointed that we could have stayed at #3 and come away with Pitts, and instead have Waddle, who was a distant third in my book as a receiving option in this draft class. And then we could have traded up to snag Javonte Williams at the top of the second round but didn't, and the Broncos swooped in and took him, despite them having a starting RB they signed to a big free agent contract just a year ago. I'm not upset with the defenders that we took, or with Eichenberg, but the paths to get them wouldn't have been my choice.

    All in all, this offseason started for me back in March with a huge amount of hope that we could improve the offense with a combination of veteran and rookie answers, and the team went in an almost polar opposite direction from what I would have liked. Personally, that makes it hard for me to be all that excited right now, either for the 2021 season or the big picture beyond that.
     
    Rick 1966 likes this.
  10. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

    37,495
    28,790
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I think the Dolphins improved because of this draft. *Note, this is just projection of them during their rookie season*

    I think Waddle should easily be an upgrade over Grant/Ford in this offense over last year. Grant is just too small to play slot, a lot of times when he is open short middle, he is too small to get the ball too. Waddle has better hands. For Ford, he is infinitely faster. Just getting him out there and running go routes will open up the offense.

    Everything I have read about Phillips is that he should at least be a rotational pass rusher as a rookie and has a great chance of being able to generate some pressures and sacks. He has great athletism and pass rush moves. Plus he looks pretty good against the run, so he can spell some time at that.

    Holland looks to at least be an athletic upgrade over Perry and Needem and anyone else Miami has at 6th secondary when they go into dime packages. He also returns punts if Miami does decide to move on from Grant.

    Eichenberg looks to be potentially better than Pankey at the very least. If he isn't good enough to beat out DJ Fluker, when one of the linemen get hurt, and a lineman will get hurt, he will probably be a better backup than the past. Solid fundamentals.

    Long, when Parker and Williams go down again, they will have another 6-5 receiving target.

    Coleman will provide better blocking for the scout team.

    Doaks looks at least to be an upgrade over Laird.
     
  11. daphins

    daphins A-Style

    5,422
    2,605
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    Legit question.

    Would you prefer Pitts

    or

    Waddle, and a future first and third?


    I can’t argue if you’d prefer Pitts, but I’d note that while he may be a special talent, he’s also a TE. Taking a TE at #3 is a tough pill to swallow, especially when we already have a talented (admittedly not transcendent) TE on the roster.

    I personally prefer Waddle and the additional 1st and 3rd, but I was curious what lens you’re looking at it through?
     
    Dorfdad likes this.
  12. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

    37,495
    28,790
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    as someone who wanted Pitts, I think Pitts is the ultimate luxury pick. I don't think he will have a bigger benefit on the team in 2021 than Waddle. In fact, I wanted Pitts for what he can do 2022 and beyond while they figure out how best to use him. And I mostly wanted him as a pass catcher, so I think it will take some time to hone those skills. I think Waddle is far beyond Pitts in term of being developed for his position to be able to make an impact quicker.

    The thing I love about Waddle is that he is a receiver who is a great athlete and not a great athlete that is a receiver like most really fast receivers.
     
    daphins and Dorfdad like this.
  13. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,516
    4,898
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Just as prospects, Waddle-Eichenberg is more valuable for the Dolphins than Sewell-Rondal Moore. (First WR after 42 picked). The draft shouldn't be viewed myopically. The goal is a winning team, not having a probowl tackle, which Eichenberg could be anyway.
     
    daphins and Dol-Fan Dupree like this.
  14. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    2,576
    1,568
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    If you discount the first to present value, it’s basically a 3rd and the 3rd next year is basically a 4th in present value.

    So the question is, would I rather have Pitts or Waddle a 3rd and a 4th? I’ll take Pitts in that scenario. Especially when you factor in that Waddle is coming off of an injury. That’s why I also wanted Chase over the Bama receivers. While Smith doesn’t have the injury history, his size is going to be a challenge.

    Back to the original posters comments, I think that was part of my problem this year. I spent a lot of time researching, forming opinions and doing mock drafts. Part of that is we really haven’t been significant in football for a LONG time so the draft represents hope. Having said that, Flo has given us a ton of hope by getting his players to outperform the “talent” level.
     
    daphins likes this.
  15. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

    2,343
    440
    83
    Nov 25, 2012
    Germany
    If we would have taken Sewell with the 6th pick our draft and the whole draft would have probably looked different, so you can't really make that comparison. So the question is, who would you have rather had at pick #6 Sewell/Parsons/Smith/trade down or Waddle, easy answer for me. Besides the 1st round I'm fine with what they did, hope their gamble in round 1 pays off, just don't like the chances.
     
  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

    35,948
    37,398
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    For me personally, I like Pitts so much more than I do Waddle that he's worth the difference. Lets say that in their best case scenarios Pitts becomes Tony Gonzales and Waddle becomes Tyreek Hill. To me, I want Gonzales 100 times out of 100. I know that not everyone agrees, but that's my position.

    I also think that SF could become very good again getting most of their injured players back healthy, and that 2023 1st rounder could be fairly low.

    In the end, right now before they play any games, its mostly a matter of taste.
     
    daphins likes this.
  17. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    7,522
    2,979
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Lakeland, FL
    If you've watched enough football, you should know that having an overpowering offensive line is the lynchpin to having a winning team.
     
    mlb1399 likes this.
  18. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,839
    5,803
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    I hope some of you have something else in your life besides obsessing about who the Dolphins do/don't draft. Following what other people do for a living is not a hobby. If you don't control it, it ain't a hobby.

    What draft ever goes down exactly the way you want or think it will? I was as tuned-into this draft hype as anyone listening to podcasts and analysis but outside of R1-R2 there's never much to get excited about. If you're scouting hundreds of players and honestly care who gets drafted in R6, you should quit your job and get into scouting...or get a life.

    They needed a WR and a DE, both of which they got in R1. That was pretty expected. Lots of people saw them taking Waddle and/or Phillips. I heard both names multiple times before the draft as well as thought-out reasons why they fit. Holland was a bit of a surprise but Eichenberg was not. He's a solid player who fits a need. Holland should be an asset for Flores. Shame all 3 of the top RBs went before pick #36 but oh well.
     
  19. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

    1,325
    393
    83
    Apr 21, 2008
    Aurora, Colorado
    NBC review:
    Miami Dolphins
    Grade: A+

    Alabama wideout Jaylen Waddle has star potential and should have instant chemistry with his former college quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leading the Dolphins offense. Taking edge rusher Jaelan Phillips at No. 18 overall in the first round was a little risky given his injury history, but he has special pass rushing talent and that was arguably Miami's biggest need entering the draft.

    Second-round picks Jevon Holland (S, Oregon) and Liam Eichenberg (OT, Notre Dame) were excellent choices, too.

    Overall, the Dolphins absolutely dominated the draft and used their abundance of early-round picks to select a couple players with very high upside.
     
  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    15,009
    9,027
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
     
  21. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

    3,010
    1,079
    113
    Oct 25, 2010
    Maryland
    Miami Dolphins are synonymous with disappointment.
     
  22. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,516
    4,898
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    That's thing though, the NFL has changed. Dominant receivers coupled with a competent OL will beat a dominant OL with competent receivers, assuming the same QB play. Dallas built one of the best OL in a while, great RB, and got one good year with a first round playoff exit. We cannot live in the past and win.
     
    Dol-Fan Dupree likes this.
  23. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

    37,495
    28,790
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I still wonder what kind of season Dallas would have had last year if Dax didn't get hurt. Dude was on his way to over 5,500 yards
     
    Two Tacos likes this.
  24. Fireland

    Fireland Active Member

    145
    105
    43
    Dec 29, 2013
    Some fans tend to fall in love with specific players whether there is a good reason to or not and then think their team is dumb when they don't draft them.

    But it is fun to see them overwhelmingly praised by analysts (which also doesn't mean that much) while people here want the front office thrown in jail for their obviously horrendous draft
     
    DolphinGreg likes this.
  25. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    2,576
    1,568
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    Pretty judgmental post. Part of being a fan is being a fanatic. If the draft negatively impacts someone’s life, family, health then they should take a step back. But if someone prefers to spend 10-20 hours on the draft vs watching baseball or soccer vs binge watching Netflix/tv, who cares?

    If people didn’t form opinions, these boards would be boring and die. Personally speaking, I enjoy the banter on this board and it’s fun to discuss differing views with people that cheer for the same team I do.
     
    Hooligan and Dol-Fan Dupree like this.
  26. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,516
    4,898
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    He got hurt week 5, they went 1-3 prior to that, with the win being a one point victory over the Falcons.
     
  27. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    15,009
    9,027
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    It's nice to see high grades on the draft, but then again, trying to give final grades or judging players before any of these guys have played a single snap?

    [​IMG]
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  28. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    1,056
    1,045
    113
    Jan 2, 2016
    Here is the thing. I do not like the picks as much as most people do. I wasn't a Phillips fan, and I think Waddle is Teddy Ginn III. I love Eichenburg.

    That being said, if you look at the roster as a whole, there is a lot to be excited about. Gone are the days in which we are praying that bottom of the barrel guys need to develop into superstars.

    Think about these units: WR, TE, OL, CB, and S. These units are so strong that we are gonna likely wind up cutting or trading really strong players.

    Do I think Waddle is overrated? Yup. Do I think that he is significantly better than who we were putting on the field at the end of last season? Definitely.

    For the first time in a long time, I fully expect us to make the playoffs.

    We have two remaining questions left - Tua and RB.
     
  29. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,839
    5,803
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    It's fine to be a fan but some people need to be reminded that being a fan is having an interest. A hobby is something you take active involvement in. If some folks want to be actively involved by spending hours scouting players, good on them, but those same people (Alf, Simon, CK, Kyle Crabbs, etc.) don't come away from the draft whining about who the Dolphins drafted. The people who really know the draft generally like (or at least see the logic) in who the Dolphins select.

    The Dolphins scouting department is not incompetent. I understand preferring one guy over another but when someone reaches a point they can't enjoy the team acquiring the players it does, what's the point?
     
    Finatik likes this.
  30. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    7,522
    2,979
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Lakeland, FL
    Has it?
    Who won the SB last season? Why didn't KC win? Because their O-line was dinged up.
     
  31. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,839
    5,803
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    There are 2 kind of judgments you can make about a team's draft selections. One involves looking at how well a team acquired the guys that were seen (by he who is judging) as the most valuable. The second involves how well the team (or the media) scouted and projected the prospects to be.

    When analysts hand out draft grades, they're typically summarizing the first type--how well a team acquired prospects that appear to be both valuable and in line with that team's needs.
     
  32. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    2,576
    1,568
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    Do you really think those people are going to change their behavior because of what someone on an anonymous message board tells them? And also, why do you care how other people spend their time? If someone wants to spend 500 hours watching film and coming up with the their own draft board, more power to them. That’s not how I chose to spend my time. But we all have limited time on this planet and if that makes them happy, good for them!

    As far as having opinions about who gets drafted and reacting positively or negatively to the pick, what fun would that be? These forums would be a bunch of homer drones that never dissent no matter how abysmal for their franchise is. That’s like saying someone should watch a game and not react when good/bad things happen. At that point, no reason to watch the game. Just check the box score.
     
    JJ_79 likes this.
  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,053
    10,321
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    For me personally, I go into each draft with excitement and names I'd like to see on our team...and usually I'll get one pick right. On a great year, maybe I hit on two or three names. For the record, I got zero right this year but I'm giving myself a half point since it said it would be Smith or Waddle.

    But never have I ever thought for a single second that I am smarter than the combined organization when it comes to who to pick. They interview these players, meet with their coaches and families, and study their lives inside and out. For me, 100% of my evaluation comes from film; for the coaches, maybe 30-50% comes from film. So I understand up front that what I love may only be a small factor on how the Dolphins grade that player.

    I mean, look how many passed on Tunsil because of a gas mask bong video...the was a top 3 talent that 10+ teams passed on at the very last second. The decision had nothing to do with his football abilities.

    I can see why some people would go overboard saying, "We should have picked this guy, he's the only person who made sense at # whatever." But those folks need to realize that they're only seeing 5-10% of the total picture once you figure in the entire board and other players they really like at similar positions. That even extends to current players- who would have expected Van Noy to be cut? Or Grant to be entering year 5? Coaches see so much more than we do because they're in the building and living this 24/7.

    Simply put, I am smart enough to know that I don't know anything about NFL drafts or building a football team.
     
    daphins likes this.
  34. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,617
    10,131
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I'm kind of the opposite. I don't give much credence to these "experts" or really anyone else who puts in tons of work studying this stuff because there are far too many busts from players picked early in the first round and far too many players who ended up great but fell round after round and even went undrafted.

    It's also well known that analyst grades have almost no correlation to the future success of the team or to individual players' success, although if someone wants to dismiss such "studies" by pointing out the measures they use aren't really good then I'm all for that too lol, but that just means there's no good evidence that people who put in the work are good at evals.

    Here's one such article:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sorry-but-nfl-draft-grades-cant-tell-you-who-had-a-good-draft/#:~:text=Truth is, there is almost,draft, when judged in retrospect.

    Point is, the draft is too much of a crapshoot to respect "expert" opinion, whether those people are employed by teams or not.

    Of course, if someone ever shows their full draft grades (not just cherry picked ones) and demonstrates they've been consistently above average, I'll consider that person an exception. But I've haven't seen such evidence yet.
     
  35. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    10,516
    4,898
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Yes, you need at least competent play. But, lets look at the Super Bowl last year. There were exactly 0 All Pro (first or second team), or Pro-Bowl offensive linemen in it. This is why I am saying that the combo of Waddle and Eichenberg beats the combo of Sewell and which ever of the available at 42 WRs. Eichenbergs floor is high enough.
     
    Finatik likes this.
  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,053
    10,321
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    First off, it's good to have you back...it was a boring off-season with all the COVID stuff!

    You could be right- maybe an outsider can pick better than a GM because we are just basing it off film. But that GM also gets to play the draft in a way we can't...I guarantee that we eliminated dozens of players based off interviews, personalities, etc. I'd be willing to bet that if you asked a GM to "grade" the top 50 players in the class as hits or misses, they'd be much more accurate than us.

    Heck, just look at the interviews with Flores/Grier on why they took certain players- they talk about intelligence, high character, great work ethic, etc. for almost every pick We can't get any of that from film and I wonder if that explains part of the miss rate. Johnny Manziel comes to mind, for example- he was probably a top-3 QB but fell to 22nd overall because of the party attitude in college. Dan Marino had that exact same reputation and he went 27th. But there was no way to know that Marino should have really been top-5 and Manziel should have been a 7th rounder.

    Yet as fans, that stuff really wasn't even on our radar pre-draft....we'd probably be all over the spectrum in grading Manziel. So I don't see an advantage for us- there's some things you have to know about people before you can hire them. It's interesting to me anyway, the philosophy behind the philosophies of the draft.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,617
    10,131
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Just to be clear, I'm not saying we'd be any better. I'm just saying the pros aren't good at it, and the main argument is the massive number of busts among high picks as well as the huge number of successful players that were not drafted early.

    So all that extra information they have doesn't seem to help them much. The draft is a crapshoot, even admitting that it's still more likely to hit on a player taken earlier than later (so it's not a total crapshoot, but it tends more towards crapshoot than skill).
     
    Rick 1966 and KeyFin like this.
  38. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    15,009
    9,027
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,532
    2,489
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Some recent stuff you may be interested in:

    http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/HSAC-NFL-Draft-Report.html
     

Share This Page