reality based optimism?

Amen

 

Basically, it comes down to the offensive line, my goodness how many years have we heard:

"they just need to gel!"

To begin the season? Then after we have been effectively eliminated from playoff contention of course they play better..that really pisses me off tbh.

 

Post Traumatic Stress Disorder is keeping a lot of people off of the band wagon. And those same people will be the first ones to get over exuberant when the wins start piling up. Irrational pessimism followed by irrational optimism, aka the norm...

 

I think we'll have a good year, but I don't think our WR corps is "scary", in fact it's an injury to one guy from being pretty average, I think we have some weak links in the secondary, I doubt that Daniel Thomas breaks out, I'll believe Thigpen as a weapon in the slot when I actually see it more than once or twice, and I'm actually extremely worried about Jonathan Martin. but all in all i think we SHOULD have a winning season.

but that write-up acts like our team has no weakness.

 

I think most all of us are optimistic to one level or another. There's some real possibilities with this team, but there also questions that need to be answered.

 

Do so miss the old colored posts 23!

No reason not to, let's see how things play out in Camp and preseason, we are really not far away from the first preseason game.

 

Mike Wallace alone is enough to scare most of the teams we'll face this season. Daniel Thomas is a backup, I don't think we'll need a break out from him. Can you elaborate on where the weak links in the secondary are? Martin is a concern but Ireland had 3 chances to add Long, Albert or Johnson and he passed. Clearly he thinks Martin can do a decent job so I'll reserve judgement until I see him on the field. Of course the team has weaknesses, all teams do. But ours are few and far between compared with the weaknesses of the teams we'll be playing against so I think "winning season" is kind of a tepid prediction. 10-11 wins is more like it. 12 if you wanna be arrogant about it.

 

Reality

 

Everyone is on board with the changes at Wr,RB,TE,Cb,Lb.... It's Philbin,Sherman,Coyle,and Tannehill that really bring the new found hope to this franchise. The roster seems to be rounding out nicely but they're going to have to make a lot of decisions next offseason similar to the ones made this year. Will we even be able to afford to keep it all together after this anticipated resurgence ? It will be tough, but young players like Sims,Taylor,Davis,Odrick,Thomas, stepping up can make it easier.... A lot of these fancy pieces we're flaunting are on rental and wont be here in 2014.

 

I always love your hyper-optimism, but "realistic" optimism means only 1/3 to 1/2 of it will come true. Hopefully it's weighted towards the starters like Keller and Miller. I don't see Thomas breaking out , I can see him getting cut if we pickup Leach

 

It's not often I agree with you, but this post is spot on. There are reasons for optimism for the season, but we need to keep the feet on the ground a bit until the play on the field matches the optimism.

 

Nicely said. This guy is GOOD!!!!

 

Almost everyWR corps is "one injury away" from being extremely mediocre. Look at Detroit, Chicago, minny, Indy, Houston, San Fran (now) buffalo, ... The list keeps growing. Very few teams have the depth of a Green Bay

 

Very few teams use their WR the same way as GB.. except maybe us?

 

Depends on what expectations come with optimism.

There are glass half full and half empty arguments to be made.

The team should be better than a year ago. Should be.

1. The receivers unit looks like a real NFL receivers unit. You couldn't say that a year ago. Last year's receivers unit competed for worst in the NFL, in my opinion. This year you have probably a middle-of-the-league unit and that's a pretty big improvement. You probably didn't have to pay quite as much as the Dolphins did to get there, but they got there all the same and that's a big positive. Elimination of weaknesses is a big help when it comes to the win/loss column.

2. You finally have a man that is a threat to get to the quarterback aside from Cam Wake. Despite having one of the most effective pass rushers in football a year ago, our pass rush unit as a whole was mediocre. Maybe top 10 to 15, somewhere around there. Cameron Wake affords you a tremendous opportunity, all you need do is (wisely) spend some amount of resources obtaining a couple more pass rushers, not even necessarily dominant ones, and you could have the best pass rush in the league. Or one of the best. Dion Jordan threatens the passer more than any player from a year ago, outside of Cam Wake. Again, you probably didn't have to pay quite as much as the Dolphins did to accomplish this, but they still accomplished it (we think).

3. If Brent Grimes stays healthy then Miami probably hasn't had a corner as effective since Will Allen's heyday. Or perhaps even Andre Goodman's. In the nickel package which dominates Miami's personnel groupings at 51% of snaps, between Richard Marshall in the slot (where he should be) and Brent Grimes on the outside, you're just about guaranteed at least 2 out of 3 corners performing very well...which is not something you could have said a year ago with Richard Marshall hurt most of the year and therefore unable to man the slot. Jimmy Wilson was the primary slot corner and he's pretty bad. That wasn't working at all. The team should head into the season having improved at least two out of three primary corner spots, as compared with what they were fielding most games a year ago.

On the other hand, there are clearly some half-empty arguments to be made.

1. The offensive line got worse. I know people will argue it and that's fine, but on paper these guys got worse. And before you start dragging out the "paper doesn't matter" stuff keep in mind that every single sentiment in this thread is just a paper argument because the games haven't started yet. This team could be an 2-14 team for all we know. Or a 14-2 team. This entire thread is about "on paper". And on paper the offensive line got worse. You lose Jake Long, you swing the worst offensive lineman from a year ago over to the most important position on the offensive line, and you replace him with 32 year old that got cut, isn't very athletic anymore, and who is at best an accomplished pass protector. Next year offensive tackle is very likely to be the team's highest priority either in free agency or the draft. I think the offensive line getting worse is going to be particularly felt in run blocking, where three out of five offensive lineman are somewhere between bad and unproven, and you've now ditched one of the best blocking tight end starters in the league with a rather pedestrian blocker in Dustin Keller.

2. The linebackers unit is at best the same level of effectiveness as a year ago, and probably worse. This is a passing league and you just subbed out two gifted coverage linebackers for two guys whose weakness is coverage. I don't buy the "better blitzers" argument. Never have, probably never will. Linebackers aren't blitzers. If you're coaching them right and calling the games right then just about any linebacker in the league is an effective blitzer. Blitz effectiveness from linebackers is probably 70 percent coaching on execution, and play calling, not inherent physical abilities. I get the feeling the replacement of Dansby and Burnett with Wheeler and Ellerbe had to do with off field issues, jettisoning de facto team leaders that the brain trust deemed to be bad for the locker room. I think the field performance in 2013 is going to suffer as a result. It still could come out a long term good move, but we're talking about 2013, not 2014-2017.

3. There's a lot more risk in the tailbacks unit. I love Lamar Miller. I love Jonas Gray. You can still find my post-draft analysis with Jesse Agler and the boys and you'll hear me declare that Lamar Miller is the most likely to make the Pro Bowl the quickest of all Miami's selections, and that I have a vision for he and Jonas Gray being the long term 1-2 punch at the position. That was a pretty bold claim, as Miller was just a 4th round pick, Gray only a UDFA, Reggie Bush was still entrenched as the starter and was very popular, and most folks still had a lot of high hopes for Daniel Thomas. When Ireland took Miller, he himself attributed it as a decision to add onto a unit that he already considered a strength. So I that just proves how much I really like these guys, that I said something like that at a time when I really had no business saying it. But like them or not, they're unproven. I have a nagging feeling Miller could have trouble staying healthy, and if the coaches don't agree with me on Daniel Thomas and have him as Lamar's primary backup, then I think half of your 1-2 punch is inferior. And if Miller does end up hurt, then your primary guy could be a player that isn't really roster-worthy, in my opinion. That's really one of my biggest fears with this position, that Miller will get hurt and then the coaches will stick with Daniel Thomas as his replacement. But even if he doesn't get hurt, if they're going 60/40 Miller and Thomas, then let's just say I'm not too confident in the 40 percent of downs with the other guy...which could exacerbate the issues I talked about with the run blocking.

What you're left with is a puzzle where the pieces fit together a certain way. The passing unit has improved, but the full weight of the improvement will take time to be felt on the field as these players have to learn to gel with one another. Lamar Miller should be fantastic, but the guys blocking in front of him won't be, and the guy spelling him as much as 40 percent of the time won't be either. This will put pressure on the passing unit to carry the offense, and as I said it will take time for them to work like oiled machinery. The schedule is not very forgiving when it comes to taking that time to gel, because I fully expect four of the first five opponents we play to be in the playoffs in 2013.

In nickel, I worry about defending the run. First off with nickel you're taking two of the strongest run defenders off the field in Paul Soliai and Koa Misi. As a defensive end, I'm not sure how well Dion Jordan will play the run. I like him in run defense as an outside linebacker but as a defensive end he won't find as favorable matchups and he could be exploited. I also wonder about Jared Odrick's effectiveness as a run stopper when he's playing the interior. I've always considered him more of a pass rusher from the interior. Dannell Ellerbe, Randy Starks, Phil Wheeler, Richard Marshall (from slot) and Reshad Jones should all be pluses for the nickel run defense. But that leaves half of the field full of question marks. I don't really fear BIG runs because of the range I see out of Ellerbe as a linebacker and Clemons as a free safety. Not to mention Dion Jordan and Cameron Wake as ends. I worry about the slow death...putting us into a nickel package on run downs and jamming it down our throat, putting us into base packages on 2nd & 5 and 3rd & Short, exploiting us with play-action and passes over the middle against the linebackers, and then hitting big plays over top of Richard Marshall on the outside. And Brent Grimes, for that matter, as there will almost certainly be a willingness to test his reconstructed Achilles tendon. Even though people think of him as athletic and explosive, he's never been a flat out speed guy. And if he's lost explosiveness that could make him a little less effective deep than he'd been. I think in 2012 teams did not test Chris Clemons' deep field protection as often as they could have, and I think they'll remedy that a bit in 2013.

I think I see about an 8-8 season coming for Miami. Improvement, but not ascendance. But I guess that makes me a cry baby or hater?

 

The problem 23rd, is that you and/or someone has posted that exact post in 2012, 2011, 2010, etc... I'm as optimistic as I've been in a long, long time, perhaps since the day the music died (Marino retired), but we still have to see a lot of guys either get healthy, stay healthy, take the next step, or reach their full potential in order for this year to be 'different' than past years... This is why a lot of fans are still wary of going all out on the Phins bandwagon...

 

Don't forget 2006. Man, that was a killer year for the optimism/results ratio.

 

But, but, Pad's . . . they just NEED to gel!

If we come out of the gate popping and win 2-3 of the tough early schedule, then I will start believing and think we are ready to make some serious noise in this season. Otherwise I will still have lots of optimism, cautiously so.

 

If only we could get you into a Dolphins uniform, 23rd, you'd be a perfect special teams kamikaze guy.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

No CK, it makes you a realist. I think we go one game better at 9-7 based on the schedule as I truly believe we gather steam as the season goes along and the whole team gels. I just hope we do well and see enough development in the sophomores and rookies to then keep impending free agents like Keller and be able to replace those we can't keep such as possibly Soliai or Starks (just don't see us able to hang on to both). Because though I am not ready to predict playoffs this year, I do believe we are poised for them in 2014.

 

Well, my optimism is based on, finally, if things go right this year we will have a balanced team that can score in all 3 phases of the game, rush the passer, and protect the passer and a young Qb with a lot of upside.

My 5 guys to watch:
-Mike Wallace
-Lamar Miller
-Cam Wake
-Brent Grimes
-Dustin Keller

Of those 5 names, only Miller is unproven, all 5 play positions that can have impacts on games

5 Guys who will surprise:
-Dion Jordan
-Marcus Thigpen
-Chris Clemmons
-Richard Marshall
-Jonathon Martin

Of those 5, the only one who has no chance of touching the football is Martin, once again a good situation to have on your roster

In the past, we had to worry about the OL or Qb, this year the situation is far less murky, we head into the season with only Martin being a question mark, and our worst OL, John Jerry, has to earn his job over a solid Vet in Lance Louis and a decent RG in Nate Garner, once again unlike in the past it is not some unknown UDFA or late rd pick competing for snaps on the OL.

 

Gotta admit, no one does a better job of identifying weaknesses and potential weaknesses than you. Luckily we don't have to be the greatest team ever to win games, being better than the team we're facing is good enough. So if you're going to fairly judge how good the team is or isn't then you'll need to take your telescopic lens to the teams we'll be facing as well.


Otherwise, yeah, you're pretty much a hater.

 

A hater for predicting .500?

Sent from my HTC One GE using Tapatalk 4 Beta

 

That's the reality of it. You're not allowed to be objective here, evidently.

 

well yea, that's my point, we have one guy who's scary, the rest are eh...god forbid if Wallace were to go down for any extended period of time.

I feel confident in Grimes and our safeties but Marshall is the weak link in the back end imo. If Jamar Taylor or Carroll start over him then I'll be pretty content with the group.

the only guy we passed on was Lane Johnson. we didn't pass on Long, he passed on us, we offered him a deal similar to what StL offered. and the only thing that held up the Albert trade was draft pick compensation, because Albert was another expensive vet tackle that we were willing to give a substantial amount of money to. Martin at LT was plan C at best. As worried as I am though, I'll reserve judgment till the season starts...but not because our GM believes in the guy, lol please, if you haven't noticed by now I couldn't give 2 ****s about who Ireland has faith in.

baby steps dude, lets crack .500 first before you start predicting double digit wins. or are you the homer type that predicts a really good season every year?

 

Ofcourse you are, but pretending people who think 10-11 wins are just dumb fans buying into the hype is not JUST being objective.

We have improved our roster and look to have an ascending QB in a parity driven league and a division where the "king" looks to have taken a step back. There is reason to believe and it's far from blind.

Do I think you're a "hater" or whatever??? Not at all. But you did give us about 4 paragraphs on WHY NE will not take a step back and 4 paragraphs on WHY you think Miami fans are not being realistic, that will raise some eyebrows to your agenda. Me? I just think you like most of us are tired of being kicked in the nuts...don't blame ya...but I also urge you not to over think things.

Our roster is improved, NE has taken a hit.

Call me crazy but I think we will be hovering around 10-11 wins and in real contention for the AFC East throne.

 

the funny thing is he called you a hater for predicting what would end up being the best record we'll have had since 09.

 

I think your stance on the king of dolphin haters may have some affect on how your objectivity is interpreted..the extreme contrast of opinion is hard to grasp.

 

Kindly point out the language and post you have a disagreement with and I will address that. Until then, I'm assuming you're speaking to someone else.

 

So Stringer Bell is a hater too?

As is pdaj?

I think it's high time people start to be a little more mature about differences of opinion around here.

 

Quick question. How well do you believe Tannehill will play this season? I would think with the 8-8 prediction, you believe he improves but not by much.

 

Words like misguided, setting ourself up for failure, half-empty etc sound a little like you "roll your eyes" to those of us with higher expectations than 8-8.

Maybe I'm wrong in my assumption.

 

That's not correct.
I pretty much agree with the prediction, but also the explanation given for what being a hater entails, and its ongoing prevelance. Tis goes deeper than just final record expectations lads.

Just remember these expectations when they want to crucify people for not surpassing them.

 

People can we stop with the "hater" references?

We as a fan base should NEVER become Heat/Patriot fan.

 

Describing skepticism as pessimism and dismissing it as if this team hasn't been subpar at a minimum is self-delusion. Skepticism of this team and franchise is healthy and warranted, with the last two decades of its existence as evidence.

If any NFL fanbase is afflicted with PTSD, it's the Jets'.

 

I don't know man, I don't think you or stringer are haters, maybe you hold Ireland responsible for everything the past 6 years like Evans obviously does and y'all jibed with each other for a moment, I can't explain your compliments of an obvious tool bag when it comes to this team.