Re-Poll After Carolina: Should Ryan Tannehill Start the Regular Season?

I'll help:

Miami Dolphins 2011 offensive line rated 17th by Football Outsiders
gave up 40 sacks for a sack rate of 6.7%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/08/15/32-teams-in-32-days-miami-dolphins/

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/02/22/ranking-the-2011-offensive-lines-part-1/

Unless you think (a) Jake Long won't bounce back and (b) Martin will not be better then Marc Colombo then you shouldn't think your OL will give up 48 sacks this season.

To sum: with an injured Long, a rookie Pouncey and one of the worst RT in all of football your OL was ranked 17th by FO and 22nd by PFF with a healthier Long, a more seasoned Pouncey and Martin replacing Colombo it seems pretty reasonable that OL play will improve no?

When you look at the main pieces of an OL: center and bookend tackles you're pretty well set-up with Long-Pouncey-Martin.
There is more reason to expect good pass protection (and overall OL play) then there is to expect poor pass protection/OL play.

 

Are you related to The23rd?
Carolina did not have a horrible OL last season. They had an excellent LT and C, decent guards, and a RT most of the season who was like a young Colombo. But, being solid or better at 4 of 5 spots does not equate a horrible OL.

 

Awww....You feel better now that 81% are wrong along with you?

 

Sack totals for rookie 1st round QBs who started by week 2 (dating back to 1980)

David Carr........ 76/16 games......... 1 per 6.8 attempts...... 4.8/game...... (Houston: #32 ranked rushing YPC, #31 rush YPG, #20 scoring D)
Jeff George....... 93/first 28 games.. 1 per 9.8 attempts...... 3.3/game...... (#19 & #25 rushing YPC, #27 & #28 rush YPG, #24 & #26 scoring D)
Rick Mirer......... 47/16................... 1 per 11.3 attempts.... 2.9/game...... (#6 rushing YPC, #4 rush YPG, #18 scoring D)
Ryan Leaf......... 53/first 18............ 1 per 11.7 attempts.... 2.9/game...... (#18 & #30 rush YPC, #16 & #27 rush YPG, #18 & #10 scoring D)
Tim Couch........ 56/14................... 1 per 8.1 attempts...... 4.0/game...... (#20 rushing YPC, #30 rush YPG, #29 scoring D)
Kyle Boller........ 53/first 25............ 1 per 14.2 attempts.... 2.1/game...... (#3 & #14 rushing YPC, #1 & #9 rush YPG, #6 & #6 scoring D)
Mark Sanchez... 26/15.................. 1 per 15.0 attempts..... 1.7/game...... (#5 rushing YPC, #1 rush YPG, #1 scoring D)


Cam Newton..... 35/16.................. 1 per 15.8 attempts..... 2.2/game...... (#1 rushing YPC, #3 rush YPG, #27 scoring D)
Joe Flacco.......... 32/16................. 1 per 14.4 attempts..... 2.0/game...... (#21 rushing YPC, #4 rushing YPG, #3 scoring D)
Matt Ryan......... 17/16................. 1 per 26.5 attempts..... 1.1/game...... (#7 rushing YPC, #2 rushing YPG, #11 scoring D)
Matt Stafford..... 24/10................. 1 per 16.7 attempts..... 2.4/game...... (#25 rushing YPC, #24 rushing YPG, #32 scoring D)
Sam Bradford.... 34/16................. 1 per 18.3 attempts..... 2.1/game...... (#29 rushing YPC, #25 rushing YPG, #12 scoring D) ....76.5 QBR
*Bradford yr 2... 36/10................. 1 per 10.9 attempts..... 3.6/game...... (#19 rushing YPC, #23 rushing YPG, #26 scoring D).... 70.5QBR
Troy Aikman...... 19/11................. 1 per 16.4 attempts..... 1.7/game...... (#9 rushing YPC, #24 rushing YPG, #24 scoring D)
Drew Bledsoe..... 16/12................. 1 per 27.8 attempts..... 1.3/game...... (#23 rushing YPC, #13 rushing YPG, #11 scoring D)
Peyton Manning. 22/16................. 1 per 27.1 attempts..... 1.4/game...... (#17 rushing YPC, #26 rushing YPG, #29 & #2 scoring D)
John Elway......... 52/first 24.......... 1 per 13.3 attempts..... 2.2/game...... (#21 & #11 rushing YPC, #23 & #10 rushing YPG, #9 & #2 scoring D)



a few notables who started by week 8 of their rookie year
Akili Smith.......... 55/first 15........ 1 per 8.6 attempts....... 3.7/game...... (#3 rushing YPC, #6 rushing YPG, #31 scoring D)
Cade McNown..... 45/first 15........ 1 per 12.4 attempts..... 3.0/game...... (#22 rushing YPC, #26 rushing YPG, #20 scoring D)
Alex Smith.......... 64/first 23....... 1 per 10.5 attempts..... 2.8/game...... (#16 rushing YPC, #17 rushing YPG, #30 scoring D)
Heath Shuler...... 12/8................ 1 per 23.1 attempts..... 1.5/game...... (#20 rushing YPC, #24 rushing YPG, #28 scoring D)
Josh Freeman..... 20/9................ 1 per 15.5 attempts..... 2.2/game...... (#25 rushing YPC, #23 rushing YPG, #27 scoring D) ...59.8 QBR
*Freeman yr 2... 28/16.............. 1 per 17.9 attempts..... 1.8/game...... (#6 rushing YPC, #8 rushing YPG, #9 scoring D) .........95.9 QBR
Gabbert............. 40/13............... 1 per 11.3 attempts..... 3.1/game...... (#21 rushing YPC, #12 rushing YPG, #9 scoring D)
Vince Young...... 25/12............... 1 per 15.3 attempts..... 2.1/game...... (#5 rushing YPC, #6 rushing YPG, #31 scoring D)
Matt Leinart...... 21/11............... 1 per 19.0 attempts..... 1.9/game...... (#32 rushing YPC, #30 rushing YPG, #29 scoring D)
Joey Harrington... 8/12............... 1 per 54.7 attempts..... 0.7/game...... (#15 rushing YPC, #29 rushing YPG, #31 scoring D)
Byron Leftwich.. 19/12............... 1 per 23.0 attempts..... 1.6/game...... (#11 rushing YPC, #8 rushing YPG, #18 scoring D)
Kerry Collins...... 24/13............... 1 per 19.0 attempts..... 1.8/game...... (#28 rushing YPC, #20 rushing YPG, #8 scoring D)
Big Ben............. 30/13............... 1 per 10.8 attempts..... 2.3/game...... (#19 rushing YPC, #2 rushing YPG, #1 scoring D)
Marino.............. 23/first 25........ 1 per 38.4 attempts...... 0.9/game...... (#21 rushing YPC, #13 rushing YPG, #1 scoring D)
Andy Dalton...... 24/16.............. 1 per 22.5 attempts...... 1.5/game...... (#19 rushing YPC, #26 rushing YPG, #10 scoring D)


*For the QBs I listed "first 15 games, first 16 games, first 25 games etc", it's referring to their first 15 games started rather than just rookie year alone.
*I added in year 2 for QBs who started by week 2 of rookie year but didn't amass more than 10 starts.

 

Yes. Yes I do.
Funny thing is, I'm more on the fence now.

 

It seems like the common theme is having 2 of the following three: good protection, strong run game to lean on, supportive defense.

.... and it seems like everyone who gets sacked a lot (once per 13 attempts & less) are virtually doomed unless they're an athletic HOFer like Elway or have a strong ground game and great defensive support.

 

I suspect you can boil it down to having a good defense, which would keep you in games, keep your offense balanced between the pass and the run, and make it harder for defenses to pin their ears back and rush your quarterback.

I suspect we have the opposite scenario here, where the defense would put us behind big, take our running game out of the equation, and put the game on Tannehill's shoulders.

 

I'd agree with that. It seems to me having a revolving door at RT like rookie Martin does not mix well with having a rookie QB, though I'm seldom of the belief a rookie QB needs to start under any conditions. Guys like Newton, RG3 and Luck being exceptions.
So if their heart is set on starting Tanny, then better to not also start Martin, and if they insist on starting Martin, then better not start Tanny. JMO.

 

Right, but do you attribute all that knocking around to the offensive line? A lot of QBs get knocked around because they are bad QBs.

 

He had problems with tipped passes at TAMU too. Therefore, I'm not going to blame our offensive line for the tipped passes this preseason. He had far more tipped passes last season than any QB in this past draft. He also had more dropped passes last season than any of the QBs in this past draft. Is all this just the fault of others and none of it his own?

 

Or we better have a good defense so we can stay in games and keep the guy Martin is blocking guessing as to whether we're going to run or pass.

As soon as the scoreboard gets out of hand and the LDE knows we have to pass, Martin is in trouble.

 

It not this total OL. It is just this right tackle. If they decide to start Tanny, then better to not start Martin. I simply refuse to believe he is our best option right now for pass blocking at right tackle.
Actually our line for pass blocking is very similar to Carolina last season. All Pro LT, very good center, and decent guards, but total suckage at RT.

 

If Ryan Tannehill is still taking sacks because he hasn't caught on to whats happening around him, then surely there is blame that should be attributed to him.

Either way, I'm not sure there is anything that is attributable to anyone considering the team has played 8 quarters of preseason football to this point.

 

Martin has shown absolutely no indications that he can pass block this season better than Colombo did last season. His one redeeming quality is he's young and therefore stands a reasonable of chance of improving...some day...maybe this season, maybe next season.

 

Philbin on Martin from today's PC:

 

I've made this point several times Mr C, RT is as important as LT, this idea that the Qb will be blindsided so you need a 10 million dollar per yr LT and some dude at RT is Parcelian nonsense.

 

In the end it'll be attributable to the whole thing, because defenses will be gameplanning against a rookie QB who has no threats catching the ball, and what looks to be a weak defense on his team.

When you put all that together, you have a team that has trouble scoring and trouble stopping other teams from scoring. That will take our running game out of the equation and magnify whatever problems players like Martin have, because the guy opposing them won't have to play honest versus the run and the pass.

Then that will make it harder for us to score, and you have a downward spiral.

That's why, IMO, you start a rookie QB only if you have a very good defense. If you have anything less than you consider to be a very good defense for certain, I think you ease your rookie QB in by scripting a couple series for him and then starting him when you're out of playoff contention and you can stay balanced on offense.

You don't start him in a situation in which he has to carry the team. That's a recipe for disaster IMO.

 

I was waiting for you to say that actually.
While I was writing it I was thinking to myself, "now I know bad QBs will make bad decisions and get beat up more often, and, conversely, good QBs might get knocked around less b/c they make better decisions and get rid of the ball quicker.... and I'm guessing StringerBell will be the first to mention this."

I think you'd agree that there are definitely cases where this is true for a rookie, only not as often in scale compared to veterans I would think. I'm guessing the Oline protection was fairly poor in most of these cases b/c of the correlation to both having a high draft pick (bad team) and an often poor supporting ground game (indicative of a poor Oline). Thoughts?

 

Yippee!!! So all we have to do is run every time when down and distance says we should pass, and pass every time when down and distance says we should run, and maybe Martin won't get Tanny killed. How reassuring.

 

Right, but the coach's faith in him isn't misplaced in his case. The issues he references are apparent.

 

No, you just have to be in the game enough on the scoreboard for the defense not to be able to guess whether you're going to run or pass with a whole lot of certainty.

 

I'd think the correlation to having a high draft pick is with having a bad QB, not a bad OL. I'd say that QBs are just as responsible for sacks as an OL.

 

Exactly, this is one of the reasons why Martin was drafted so highly as a NCAA LT to play RT in the NFL.

He's seriously struggling and knowing how the league works he will start Day 1, they really have no choice.

 

Hmm, sounds more to me like comments made to save face after a foolish decision to just hand Martin the starting job, gifted wrapped with a pretty bow, placed on a silver platter.

 

Right, but the flaw in this logic is that opposing teams aren't in anyway flawless or even with less flaws that our team.

What exactly ensures this won't ever be the case?

 

Right, but what ensures a stronger run game or stronger defense in the future?

 

What ensures it won't be the case is when you have lots of talent on defense, and that talent isn't adjusting to a new system.

At that point your defense carries your team, and your quarterback can relax knowing he won't have to carry it. Your offense can then stay in games, stay balanced, and keep defenses from teeing off on your rookie QB.

 

very true, but it's possible to have both, no? If a QB is getting hit once every 10 passes AND the ground game isn't effective, doesn't that hint at the possibility of a poor oline rather than it all being on the QB? Isn't it possible that the QB isn't any good or didn't develop b/c of a bad Oline and weak supporting cast? I mean, there are bad Olines in the NFL; their lack of success doesn't fall just on the QB.

 

So, if Tanny gets pounded into the ground, it won't be Martin's fault, but rather the fault of our defense for not shutting down the opposing offenses.

 

If that's the case, that would put us roughly at an 8-8 team if we're going by league averages rather than the upper echelon team we're striving to become, no?