Using my adjusted QB rating, here's how the '07 quarterbacks ranked. I went through the top 20 in QB rating and added Vince Young and the Dolphins quarterbacks. Tom Brady: 110.3* David Garrard: 94.90* Peyton Manning: 94.04 Tony Romo: 92.11 Ben Roethlisberger: 90.53* Brett Favre: 89.97 Jeff Garcia: 87.95 Drew Brees: 84.97 Carson Palmer: 82.85 Matt Hasselbeck: 82.33 Jay Cutler: 81.45 Derek Anderson: 80.67 Kurt Warner: 80.56 Sage Rosenfels: 79.59 Donovan McNabb: 79.04 Chad Pennington: 78.05 Matt Schaub: 78 Philip Rivers: 73.85 Trent Green: 73.75 Vince Young: 71.78 Jason Campbell: 69.19 Cleo Lemon: 67.02 John Beck: 42.85* *=QB kneels are included One way this formula can improve in it's accuracy is to take away on the QB kneels, this would probably help Favre and Manning (among) others a notch or two. I didn't feel like going through all the game logs though. Another area I wasn't sure about was the sacks, the quarterbacks that are sacked a lot are already penalized through the completion % (very small difference) and the YPA parts of the adjusted formula, I'm not sure if that's quite enough though. I thought about subtracting the sack total from the completions part of the formula in addition to adding it to the completion % (attempts) part of the adjusted formula. If each sack is given full value, than Roethlisberger's adjusted QB rating would've dropped to 82.4. I wasn't sure what value to place on each sack, so I left that out and made the formula and made it a bit more simplistic. My adjusted formula takes into account the quarterbacks scrambling ability, awareness in the pocket, efficiencey and the ability to score. Like any rating system based on stats, my formula isn't without it's flaws, but it's a far more efficient way to judge a list of quarterbacks than the standard QB rating. Here are a couple of examples of how it works: Vince Young: A scrambling QB, his mobility is probably his biggest asset. Young had 395 rushing yards/93 carries. I asked myself, what would be the best way to place a value on scrambling ability? If you combine his rushing yards with his passing yards and divide into the number of attempts, his YPA would actually go down, thus penalizing him for his ability to scramble. If you add his rushing attempts to the number of passing attempts that would increase the completion % part of the formula enough to offset the YPA part of the formula. Completion %: 238 completions + 93 rushing attempts/382 passing attempts + 93 rushing attempts + 25 sacks Note: Every sack counts as an imcompletion in the completion % part of the adjusted formula. YPA: 2,546 passing yards + 395 rushing yards -157 sack yards/ 382 passing attempts + 93 rushing attempts Note: This lowers the YPA part of the adjusted formula, but not anywhere near to the extent of a Peyton Manning (in terms of rushing yardage and attempts). The first 2 parts of the adjusted formula award the QB that is able to scramble and have a decent ypc, in addition to the QB that can avoid the sack. TD %: 9 passing touchdowns + 3 rushing touchdowns/382 passing attempts + 93 rushing attempts + 25 sacks INT % (turnover %): 17 interceptions + 3 fumbles lost/ 382 passing attempts + 93 rushing attempts + 25 sacks In most cases, the adjusted QB rating is going to be atleast a couple of points lower than the standard QB rating. In Young's case, his standard QB rating is 71.1 and his adjusted QB rating is 71.8 In the case of Ben Roethlisberger, his QB rating took a pretty big hit in the adjusted QB rating formula, despite being a scrambling QB. Of course it doesn't help when you're sacked once every 9.6 times you drop back to pass.... Completion %: 264 completions + 35 rushing attempts/404 passing attempts + 35 rushing attempts + 47 sacks YPA: 3,154 passing yards + 204 rusing yards -347 sack yards/404 passing attempts + 35 rushing attempts + 47 sacks TD %: 32 passing touchdowns + 2 rushing touchdowns/404 passing attempts + 35 rushing attempts + 47 sacks INT % (turnover %): 11 interceptions + 3 fumbles lost/404 passing attempts + 35 rushing attempts + 35 rushing attempts + 47 sacks Standard QB rating: 104.1 Adjusted QB rating: 90.48 I would also like to point out that Roethlisberger, Cutler and Andrerson are the only quarterbacks that are in the top 20 going by adjusted qb rating, that are under 27 years old. Derek Anderson is 12th in adjusted QB rating, of the 11 players that are ahead of him in this category, 3 had fewer than 500 snaps in '07. Derek Anderson had a total of 573 snaps. David Garrard: 395 snaps Ben Roethlisberger: 486 snaps Jeff Garcia: 381 snaps Comparing Anderson to other quarterbacks his age, he definitely had one of the better years in '07 for a QB 26 years old or younger. Roethlisberger: 90.48 (turned 25 in March) Cutler: 81.45 (turned 24 in April) Anderson: 80.67 (turned 24 in June) Schaub: 78 (turned 26 in June) Rivers: 73.85 (turned 26 in Dec.) Young: 71.78 (turned 24 in May) Campbell: 69.19 (turned 26 in Dec.) Just thought I'd throw in my endorsement of Derek Anderson
Here's the list of quarterbacks that had a higher standard QB rating than 99 since the year 2002. I've also taken out the "QB kneels" out of the number of "QB snaps". Standard QB rating: Peyton Manning (2004): 121.1 Tom Brady (2007): 117.2 Daunte Culpepper (2004): 110.9 Drew Brees (2004): 104.8 Donovan McNabb (2004): 104.7 Chad Pennington (2002): 104.2 Peyton Manning (2005): 104.1 Ben Roethlisberger (2007): 104.1 David Garrard (2007): 102.2 Carson Palmer (2005): 101.1 Peyton Manning (2006): 101 Steve McNair (2003): 100.4 Peyton Manning (2003): 99 Adjusted QB rating: Peyton Manning (2004): 116.2 (521 snaps) Tom Brady (2007): 110.3 (623 snaps) Daunte Culpepper (2004): 100.2 (669 snaps) Peyton Manning (2006): 99.61 (581 snaps) Drew Brees (2004): 98.67 (450 snaps) Peyton Manning (2005): 98.07 (484 snaps) Chad Pennington (2002): 97.67 (443 snaps) Donovan McNabb (2004): 94.93 (531 snaps) David Garrard (2007): 94.90 (382 snaps) Peyton Manning (2003): 94.52 (602 snaps) Steve McNair (2003): 92.92 (450 snaps) Ben Roethlisberger (2007): 90.53 (482 snaps) Carson Palmer (2005): 90.51 (546 snaps) Here are some examples... Adjusted QB rating Peyton Manning (2004): 116.2 Completion %: 336 completions + 11 rushing attempts/497 passing attempts + 11 rushing attempts + 13 sacks Note: Manning had 25 rushing atttempts in '04, but 14 of those were kneel downs resulting in 16 yards lost. That's how I got the 11 rushing attempts. YPA: 4,557 passing yards + 54 rushing yards -101 sack yards/497 passing attempts + 11 rushing attempts + 13 sacks Note: Manning had 38 rushing yards in '04, factor in the kneel downs and he had 54 rushing yards. TD %: 49 passing touchdowns (0 rushing touchdowns)/497 passing attempts + 11 rushing attempts + 13 sacks Turnover %: 10 interceptions + 1 lost fumble/497 passing attempts + 11 rushing attempts + 13 sacks Tom Brady (2007): 110.3 Completion %: 398 completions + 24 rushing attempts/578 passing attempts + 24 rushing attempts + 21 sacks Note: Brady had 37 rushing attempts in '07, but 13 of those attempts were kneel downs resulting in 14 yards lost. YPA: 4,808 passing yards + 112 rushing yards -128 sack yards/578 passing attempts + 24 rushing attempts + 21 sacks TD %: 50 passing touchdowns + 2 rushing touchdowns/578 passing attempts + 24 rushing attempts + 21 sacks Turnover %: 8 interceptions + 4 lost fumbles/578 passing attempts + 24 rushing attempts + 21 sacks
