Race For #1 Pick- Top Contenders

I think this is a three team race between us, Indy and jax. The tough part for us is we will lose the strength of schedule tiebreaker against either so we need to finish one clear. I agree with everyone that says 1-15 will win this thing, if not 0-16. And as much as finishing 1-15 with the first pick is probably best case scenario,I would choose 0-16 with luck than 1-15 without him. I don't think the Detroit fans care about being 0-16 four years ago if stafford nets them a super bowl, and by all accounts luck is a much better prospect than stafford. We really need the colts to beat tenn this week, I wish that game was in Indy.

I don't see the rams as viable contenders as bad as they looked yesterday. They have 7 "winnable games" left. Same goes for Arizona, they are bad but their schedule is too soft to not win at least one more.

It's us, Indy or jax. Give me even odds on that and I will bet the mortgage.

"Idahophin wrote:

Since the Rams have Sam Bradford, would they be interested in a QB?

I keep seeing this question and my reply is, what has Bradford done over the past two (-) seasons to make you think they wouldnt take Luck and trade Bradford?

"jake23 wrote:

I think this is a three team race between us, Indy and jax. The tough part for us is we will lose the strength of schedule tiebreaker against either so we need to finish one clear. I agree with everyone that says 1-15 will win this thing, if not 0-16. And as much as finishing 1-15 with the first pick is probably best case scenario,I would choose 0-16 with luck than 1-15 without him. I don't think the Detroit fans care about being 0-16 four years ago if stafford nets them a super bowl, and by all accounts luck is a much better prospect than stafford. We really need the colts to beat tenn this week, I wish that game was in Indy.

I don't see the rams as viable contenders as bad as they looked yesterday. They have 7 "winnable games" left. Same goes for Arizona, they are bad but their schedule is too soft to not win at least one more.

It's us, Indy or jax. Give me even odds on that and I will bet the mortgage.

The Colts and Jags play twice this year... they either split or knock the other team out of the race but it aint gonna be both of them. ;)

I agree it can't be both but it will be one or the other that is our main competition. We really need them to split or the colts to win both and jax sneak one more win against tenn or Cleveland

"Idahophin wrote:

Since the Rams have Sam Bradford, would they be interested in a QB?

Who knows, but I guarantee they'll be interested in the multiple 1st round picks any team willing to move up for Luck would give them. Plus, the Rams have Bradford and his contract that was signed BEFORE the new CBA; they're on the hook for a lot of money tied up in Sam Bradford. If they get multiple picks as compensation for the right to take Luck, they could get a good number of players that will help them out.

"Aqua4Ever04 wrote:

That's the only game I see us having the potential to win. But then I think about Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan coming off the edge and it's good night. Also Matt Moore throwing into that secondary is a scary thought as well.

I think we'll be 0-11 by Thanksgiving and everybody else will have won at least one. From there, I think we'll upset somebody, just can't figure out who yet.

Yeah, I doubt we beat the Skins. Anyone thinking that game is winnable is seriously underestimating that D. Orakpo and Kerrigan will tear our oline apart. Moore throws at least 2 picks.
Final score: Washington 23, Miami 12

You better hope Colombo stays because if they fix that right side and try some new things like say Cook at RG and Garner at RT we're going to win football games.

"RoninFin4 wrote:

Who knows, but I guarantee they'll be interested in the multiple 1st round picks any team willing to move up for Luck would give them. Plus, the Rams have Bradford and his contract that was signed BEFORE the new CBA; they're on the hook for a lot of money tied up in Sam Bradford. If they get multiple picks as compensation for the right to take Luck, they could get a good number of players that will help them out.

hell yeah, if I'am them I stick with bradford, and draft Trent richardson or Lamichael James on that turf, then Blackmon, and walk away with a smile on my face.

Colts might have a dilemma too. I mean, this team is BAD. Even with Manning they would not be super bowl material.

I wonder if they'd trade it and take Jones or Barkley or whoever, then use their extra picks to boost the rest of the team. They have a chance to win another Super Bowl with manning if they do that. And still have a possibly great QB, just not Luck.

They might trade Manning to the Jets or the Ravens and just draft Luck. Not that crazy of a possibility. Once Lewis and Reed retire those Ravens will go south quite a bit.

Would be funny if 3 teams ended up 0-16.

"PSG wrote:

Yeah, I doubt we beat the Skins. Anyone thinking that game is winnable is seriously underestimating that D. Orakpo and Kerrigan will tear our oline apart. Moore throws at least 2 picks.
Final score: Washington 23, Miami 12

That offense is pretty terrible though, doubly so now that Grossman has reverted to form and Hightower is IRed and Moss is out for the next 5-7 games.

Bad teams like us, the colts, jags, etc will only stand a chance against two types of teams - low scoring or mistake prone. To win a game we will essentially need to catch several breaks because we will be the underdog. If we can catch Washington in a game where Rex or Beck cough it up a few times, or the Giants when Eli has one of his brain fart games we could pull something out.

"Jaj wrote:

They might trade Manning to the Jets or the Ravens and just draft Luck. Not that crazy of a possibility. Once Lewis and Reed retire those Ravens will go south quite a bit.

I would think the Colts would do everything possible to at least keep Peyton out of the AFC. Seahawks, Niners, Skins, Vikes.
Those would be some of my first calls.

This site updates the SOS in season every so often: http://www.rogerspoll.com/nfl_2011_sos_wk6.html

Last update was week 6 ... not sure how he tabulates the score ... but as of week 6, we had the 4th toughest schedule to date ... which doesn't bode well for our draft tie breaker as the team with the weaker SOS gets the higher pick

"mroz wrote:

I keep seeing this question and my reply is, what has Bradford done over the past two (-) seasons to make you think they wouldnt take Luck and trade Bradford?

Might depend on what kind of salary cap hit they'd have to take for trading him.

"Gunner wrote:

This site updates the SOS in season every so often: http://www.rogerspoll.com/nfl_2011_sos_wk6.html

Last update was week 6 ... not sure how he tabulates the score ... but as of week 6, we had the 4th toughest schedule to date ... which doesn't bode well for our draft tie breaker as the team with the weaker SOS gets the higher pick

His SoS scores has nothing to do with draft formula.....

Its simply #of Wins of Opponents divided by Total # of games played by opponents....its the tie breaker for round 1 of draft following # of Wins of teams.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedLosses/order/true

You can use ESPN playoff...just sort by wins in reverse order, and use the SoS column that is already calculated to figure out all teams tied with same # of wins. The lowest SoS% will get the better draft slot for 1st round.

Right now, thru week 7. Wins then SoS % order

1. MIA 0 wins .579
2. IND 0 wins .609
3. STL 0 wins .639
4. AZ 1 win .436
5. JAC 1 win .575
6. MIN 1 win .609

Remaining Schedule:
Miami (0-6)- @NYG, @KC, WAS, BUF, @DAL, OAK, PHI, @BUF, @NE, NYJ

Indy (0-7)- @TEN, ATL, JAC, CAR, @NE, @BAL, TEN, HOU, @JAC

St Louis (0-6)- NO, @AZ, CLE, SEA, AZ, @SF, @SEA, CIN, @PIT, SF

Arizona- (1-5)- @BAL, STL, @PHI, @SF, @STL, DAL, SF, CLE, @CIN, SEA

Jags- (1-5)- BAL(MNF), @HOU, @IND, @CLE, HOU, SD, TB, @ATL, @TEN, IND

Minny- (1-6)- CAR, @GB, OAK, @ATL, DEN, @DET, NO, @WAS, CHI

JAX defense is looking good tonight!

"Clark Kent wrote:

There's only 3 teams in Contention IMO. Seattle, St. LOUIS and Miami. Peyton is probably coming back. And till I hear that he's not, I don't think they legit Co.te.sets. Lucky for us Seattle and St. Louis play in the kindergarten of football.

You have heard it now. Manning will not be back this season. The Colts are not going to make the playoffs and with his neck injury still not fully healed, the Colts have no desire to expose Manning to further injury this season. The owner of the Colts has already stated that he would gladly draft Luck if the Colts have the first pick in the draft. For the owner to make this statement, it certainly appears that he already knows Manning will not be back this year and that the Colts will be one of the few teams who will be vying for the top pick in the 2012 draft, based on their won-loss record.

"BigDogsHunt wrote:

His SoS scores has nothing to do with draft formula.....

Its simply #of Wins of Opponents divided by Total # of games played by opponents....its the tie breaker for round 1 of draft following # of Wins of teams.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedLosses/order/true

You can use ESPN playoff...just sort by wins in reverse order, and use the SoS column that is already calculated to figure out all teams tied with same # of wins. The lowest SoS% will get the better draft slot for 1st round.

Right now, thru week 7. Wins then SoS % order

1. MIA 0 wins .579
2. IND 0 wins .609
3. STL 0 wins .639
4. AZ 1 win .436
5. JAC 1 win .575
6. MIN 1 win .609

Remaining Schedule:
Miami (0-6)- @NYG, @KC, WAS, BUF, @DAL, OAK, PHI, @BUF, @NE, NYJ

Indy (0-7)- @TEN, ATL, JAC, CAR, @NE, @BAL, TEN, HOU, @JAC

St Louis (0-6)- NO, @AZ, CLE, SEA, AZ, @SF, @SEA, CIN, @PIT, SF

Arizona- (1-5)- @BAL, STL, @PHI, @SF, @STL, DAL, SF, CLE, @CIN, SEA

Jags- (1-5)- BAL(MNF), @HOU, @IND, @CLE, HOU, SD, TB, @ATL, @TEN, IND

Minny- (1-6)- CAR, @GB, OAK, @ATL, DEN, @DET, NO, @WAS, CHI

Never said it had anything to do with draft formula ... rather just data ranking SOS for games already played only. It does not include games remaining on the schedule

"Gunner wrote:

Never said it had anything to do with draft formula ... rather just data ranking SOS for games already played only. It does not include games remaining on the schedule

Gotcha, wasnt sure if you were looking for the actual/relevant draft info...but this SoS scores stuff, weird, as I dont know how they are being calculated...but SoS% is what the Draft uses..so thats what I wanted to provide to help thru week 7.

"djphinfan wrote:

he will be missing Santonio holmes and Tim Hightower..2 players that were playing well...winnable game or miami

Santana Moss . . .

"GARDENHEAD wrote:

JAX defense is looking good tonight!

Flacco looking bad . . .

"BigDogsHunt wrote:

His SoS scores has nothing to do with draft formula.....

Its simply #of Wins of Opponents divided by Total # of games played by opponents....its the tie breaker for round 1 of draft following # of Wins of teams.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedLosses/order/true

You can use ESPN playoff...just sort by wins in reverse order, and use the SoS column that is already calculated to figure out all teams tied with same # of wins. The lowest SoS% will get the better draft slot for 1st round.

Right now, thru week 7. Wins then SoS % order

1. MIA 0 wins .579
2. IND 0 wins .609
3. STL 0 wins .639
4. AZ 1 win .436
5. JAC 1 win .575
6. MIN 1 win .609

Remaining Schedule:
Miami (0-6)- @NYG, @KC, WAS, BUF, @DAL, OAK, PHI, @BUF, @NE, NYJ

Indy (0-7)- @TEN, ATL, JAC, CAR, @NE, @BAL, TEN, HOU, @JAC

St Louis (0-6)- NO, @AZ, CLE, SEA, AZ, @SF, @SEA, CIN, @PIT, SF

Arizona- (1-5)- @BAL, STL, @PHI, @SF, @STL, DAL, SF, CLE, @CIN, SEA

Jags- (1-5)- BAL(MNF), @HOU, @IND, @CLE, HOU, SD, TB, @ATL, @TEN, IND

Minny- (1-6)- CAR, @GB, OAK, @ATL, DEN, @DET, NO, @WAS, CHI

Yes, out in front...Great post.

Simple...hope the AFC South & AFC North & NFC South teams win...unless the Colts magically start winning.

I think the Rams will pick up wins at some point. Seahawks, Cardinals still on schedule.

Alright Jags!