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QB's for 2015 Draft (aka the 19th starting QB since Marino)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by Bpk, Aug 27, 2014.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think Connor Cook's primary problem is decision-making. He's still got that going this year and that's probably what has disappointed me. I compared him a lot to Brett Favre but the thing about being compared to Brett Favre is it probably implies as much bad as it does good, because while Brett had proven himself over like a 20 year career, Cook hasn't proven anything yet except that he can consistently throw ill-fated balls trying to be too aggressive.

    He's still one of my favorite prospects but there are definitely concerns about the decision making.
     
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  2. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    I could only bring myself to watch a quarter of Cato last weekend. He looked pretty damn awesome, but tough to judge against the team he played because they were clearly thoroughly outmatched. :cry:
     
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  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    He's worth watching. You say the opponent was clearly outmatched but Marshall was not a 20 point favorite in that game or anything like they were the week before against Ohio, or a 41 point favorite like they were the week before that against Rhode Island. They were only a 10 point favorite in this game. The Akron Zips were not supposed to be that outmatched by Marshall, but it was all Cato.

    When he came in as a freshman, Marshall wasn't anything to speak of. As the coach said he led them to a bowl game even though they were heavy underdogs in about 10 out of 12 games. He won the bowl game too.

    Marshall is totally outplaying their opponents right now and he's a HUGE part of that. He's making those opponents look outmatched, I wouldn't necessarily say it's because of Marshall's overwhelming talent. They've got Tommy Shuler and a good defensive back or two...but I don't know if they have much else that will deserve attention at the next level.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    This guy may be coked up 24:7, I really don't know.

    But when you're THIS good...I'll be damned if I'm tempted to think it doesn't matter even if you are.

    Really try if you can to get an appreciation for how sound his decision-making is versus the different defensive looks.

    [video=youtube;BlQzSPIJhf8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BlQzSPIJhf8[/video]
     
  5. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    Definitely some exciting prospects coming out this year - hopefully Miami doesn't miss out if Tanny continues to struggle. Cato and Winston look so special. Thanks for the writeups and analysis CK.
     
  6. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Cato has to hit 205 lbs. Then he's a legitimate NFL player. That was the mark for Wilson it should be the mark for him.
     
  7. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    I really like Connor Cook as a day 2 pick for Miami.
     
  8. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    You would think that if you took a quarterback every year these issues would be resolved. Unfortunately Miami just didn't do that. What do you think of Hutson Mason?
     
  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Im not enthusiastic about any of the guys coming out (or maybe doing so) next spring. To me, it looks to be the weakest crop in years.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'd be surprised/concerned if he wasn't able to achieve that, after a bunch of training in preparation for the Combine.

    I look at Aaron Rodgers nowadays and his build looks pretty similar to what I imagine Cato's will be once he gets up to the 200-205 mark.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Might not make it to Day 2.

    Quarterback munchies go in cycles. There was a big up-cycle starting in 2011 and flowing through to 2012. Partially as a result, there was a big down-cycle in 2013 flowing through to 2014. I think there could very well be a big up-cycle again beginning in 2015. Why? Because the guys that were taken in 2011-2012 have had enough time to show that they're not THE guy that their team was hoping for (Tannehill really a shining example of that).

    The Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans and Washington Redskins could all conceivably be in the market for quarterbacks come April/May.
     
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  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Really?

    Last year with E.J. Manuel, Matt Barkley and Geno Smith had to be one of the weakest years I'd seen in quite a while. And I actually liked Barkley and Manuel more than most.

    Next year you could be looking at Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley and Connor Cook in the upper reaches, with guys like Bryce Petty, Shane Carden, Sean Mannion, Kevin Hogan and Connor Halliday a little below.

    I don't know where to place Rakeem Cato yet. I know where *I* place him but I've got no bead on what the NFL will do with his size issues.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    True. Last year was absolutely awful. I don't like the 2015 class any more though. Winston is a head case, and I haven't seen enough to show me that he's an NFL passer. Mariota is an athelete. I have no idea if he's a quarterback. I like Hundley the most, but he's been hurt a lot. I think that Petty is a system QB, personally.
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'm not high on Petty either but the NFL will consider him up there in the Day 2 type area.

    Jameis Winston may be a head case but he's unflappable on the football field and his devotion to football study is crystal clear in the way he reads defenses and consistently hurts them at their weakest point. And when it comes to physical ability, the dude spins a great football, is athletic as hell, strong and has good size, has literally everything you could want.

    I have my nits about Marcus Mariota but he spins a great football and has enough accuracy in terms of ball placement to be considered in the upper reaches. My questions with him are more to do with his handling of pressure in the pocket, tendencies to fumble, and the fact that his offense basically puts him on 1st & 5 where everyone else is on 1st & 10, because of the spacing and the wide open windows. But that's partially to his credit because he has 4.4 speed that the defense must constantly account for.

    Hundley is actually the guy I have the most questions about. His surrounding cast is not good and he deals with a lot of pressure because of his OL, but he's not handling all that very well and he should be answerable for his own poor performance.
     
  16. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    So confused about what you see in Winston. I see a guy who throws wobblers, has mediocre arm strength, prefers to dump passes off short or chuck up jump balls (mainly last year with KB). A guy who is a good enough passer to be a top college QB with his athleticism but who's game won't translate
     
  17. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Go watch his very first game against Pitt. I knew right then he had what it takes.
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That was an eye-opener for sure. I remember that game. It was one of the games I watched live while it was happening.
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    First off, I'm not sure I see the wobblers criticism. Maybe he's thrown a few, I think they all do every now and then. I see him throwing a good ball. He spins it well.

    Second I think in general there's too much of a negative perception with respect to underneath passes and I think it's the stigma associated with the label of a pass as a "checkdown". I try to think of passes in terms of how correct the decision was fundamentally as well as how aggressive it was. Those two aren't necessarily opposing ideals, either.

    Take the two plays that begin at this time mark:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlQzSPIJhf8&feature=player_detailpage#t=17

    Is that first pass a "checkdown"? Not really. It's just smart football. He adjusts the back to the weak side of the defense where the linebacker spacing would make it impossible for the Will to cover him effectively into the flat and he works a basic slant-flat route combination against a three-deep zone. In this case the weak side defensive end adjusts into a flat coverage because of the pre-snap alignment change, but it doesn't phase Winston or cause any indecision because it's still a mismatch, as the defensive end started from a down position and is at a big disadvantage. The fact he didn't hesitate suggests that Winston expected the end to peal out like that. That shows his preparation. Winston aggressively hit the correct pass and took the easy yards on 1st down.

    The very next play Winston bootlegs out off the play-action against what certainly looks like man-free coverage. Coming out of his turn he immediately has the tight end in the flat with a linebacker struggling to recover position that he lost with the play-fake. But Winston knows he's got man-free and he trusts Rashad Greene (much as you would a Brian Hartline) to win that route against a corner on an island. He clearly opted for the more AGGRESSIVE choice here, down the field against man coverage rather than the shortest option (also in man coverage). The ball he threw had absolutely perfect placement. Rashad Greene has to come up with that ball.

    That's the thing that marks Winston's film. He's almost always fundamentally correct and he finds ways to be aggressive within that constraint by being being decisive and by manipulating his ball placement and touch.
     
  20. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just awesome, Chris.

    I didn't want to post this in the prospect forum due to respect of keeping that about purely the work you're doing.

    However, it was just a fine piece in which you clearly did your research. I'm not saying this as a homer/Marshall fan, but you adequately mentioned the weaknesses and strengths to Cato's game.

    The entire time I was reading it, I was finishing the sentences. Talking about balls batted down (My thought: "He's never had balls batted down. Never an issue.") You had it. Talking about when he takes off and runs ("Always slides. And ALWAYS knows where the 1st down marker, Goal line, or side lines are."). Talking about why his completion percentage dropped in 2013 ("He often tried to go for the big play. Balls down the field. Low percentage throws.")

    He's very much like a great hitter in baseball - think Cabrera or Ortiz. They go for HRs early in the count, then have the ability to shorten up, and still drive the baseball with their hands for singles, doubles, or fouling off pitcher's pitches. In early downs, he takes his shots and tries to make big plays. When it's 3rd down or drives where it's of utmost importance to move the chains and get first downs, he's willing to hone in and just get 1st downs.

    I'm just glad you recognized how competitive he is. I've said it multiple times, but he cares so much about the game. One, he recognizes that it's his way out, his way to provide for his family, and his way to pay back the efforts of his mother, sister, and friend's that took care of him. He's never been an issue off the field at Marshall at all - whereas it's been a place where guys have found ways to get in trouble - Dobson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Randy, and a multiple others that lose their way in Huntington.

    Just an excellent piece. Well done. I wish I could show people like Doug Smock and other Herd writers how good this is. They need to know what research looks like.
     
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  21. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    One other thing...If it isn't clear about my man crush on Cato by now, haha...All of Marshall's big losses throughout the past 2 years, have been due to fumbles & terrible TOs by his teammates.

    Before crushing Ohio this year, the past 2 years Marshall fumbled away several opportunities to win that game. Cato would have lead Marshall to a win over VT at VT last year had our FG kicker been able to make a 38 yd FG.

    Cato also lead Marshall to a win, as a freshman, in Louisville vs. Teddy Bridgewater...who was the bigger name coming out of Miami.
     
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  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The questions about Cato will IMO start to boil down to:

    1. Size. This is obvious and boils down to a) can he see the field, b) can he stay healthy.

    2. Arm strength. Sometimes I wonder if he's getting great velocity on some of his passes.

    3. Intelligence. This is very much a cultural thing. The guy grew up in Liberty City. He doesn't speak in an affluent manner. Some people are going to question just how intelligent he is and whether he can process a complicated NFL offense.
     
  23. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    All legitimate concerns. By no means is the guy a blue chip prospect. I'm not sure he'll ever amount to much in the NFL. All I know is that he's made himself into something from dire straits. He cares about the game. He's been one helluva representation of Marshall University.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'm rooting for him to be the next Russell Wilson trust me. But he could be more Seneca Wallace, I dunno. Need more data. As much as I've seen and as well as I know him, there's more I want to see.

    Can he run the table?

    What happens if he does?

    Can he beat legit team in the bowl game?

    Can he perform at an All Star game?
     
  25. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Moderator Staff Member Club Member

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    Of the guys I've seen, I'm drawn to Winston and Cook more than the rest.

    Cook makes me think that this is what Ryan Tannehill *should* be playing like, minus the athleticism, though Tannehill doesn't really use it much. Seems like he's got a pretty strong arm and decent pocket awareness; climbs it, side steps pressure in sort of a Tom Bradyish manner. I feel like his footwork isn't always there and sometimes it looks like his lead leg (left) drifts wide, almost like a baseball player when they step "in the bucket". I'm intrigued and want to watch more of him as the season progresses. Almost seems to have a little Folesian quality about him; tall, good in the pocket, sees the field, doesn't appear to get too rattled by pressure.
     
  26. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    So...is Hundley viable now?
     
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  27. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm curious what the draft guys think of Hundley. He definitely has an interesting skill set it would seem.
     
  28. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    It may just be my personal affinity for him as a QB but I'm starting to see more legit throws out of him. His physical strength and athleticism already exceed what 99% of QB's have or need. His accuracy both years completed is actually better than Kaepernick's best year at Nevada (I suspect they'll be compared a lot) and he's above 70 completion percentage so far this season. I've already expressed significant interest in both he and Cato. If I were in charge of a draft, I very well would consider drafting them both, especially if Cato's stock doesn't rise.
     
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  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Brett Hundley's physical skillset is dynamic and his accuracy is in my opinion better than Marcus Mariota's. However it's his decision making that worries me. There's a little too much Logan Thomas there at times, it seems. But not all of that is Hundley's fault because his offensive line has played atrocious football at times. No matter what anyone thought of Xavier Su'a-Filo, fact of the matter is that line has yet to block really well for Hundley. You could argue that he's caving in on himself because of the pressure and he's no longer managing the pocket right because of how much pressure he's dealt with over the years.
     
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  30. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    I am an Akron alum. Me saying they were so outmatched was as much a coping mechanism as anything else.
     
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  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I hope Draft Breakdown gets off their asses and actually puts some tape on Rakeem Cato out there. Right now all they have is the Virginia Tech game from 2013 where Marshall should have been hopelessly outclassed but really wasn't.

    EDIT: Oops, it's not the VT video from 2013 they have up. They have the Maryland bowl game up from 2013. Still, only one video.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    They also need to get some film of Connor Halliday up. And obviously Dak Prescott.
     
  33. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Well if I remember that game correctly it rained hard and it went to overtime.
     
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  34. mroz

    mroz F the Browns Club Member

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    I see a lot of hogan out here, being in the bay area... When I watch him I come away thinking BLAH. Ithink he does somethings well but there is something missing there. I wonder if it is the Stanford offense in general...
     
  35. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Arkansas' QB, Brandon Allen looks really decent. He's outshined Kenny Hill today.
     
  36. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Spoke too soon. Kenny Hill did what a Heisman finalist is supposed to do....MAKE PLAYS. Another 4 tds for him. He is going to smash Manziel's numbers.

    Awesome game. Man, I love watching Auburn and Texas A&M.

    On another note, do you realize that we drafted the worst of Texas A&M's last 4 QBs (Tannehill)?

    1. Manziel
    2. Kenny Hill (will end up #1)
    3. Jerrod Johnson
    4. Tannehill
     
  37. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Book is still out on Hill obviously, but as a pro prospect Tannehill is better than Manziel or JJ. Manziel is going to be a disaster as a QB.
     
  38. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Yes, Hill still has a lot of time to go, but he is pace to be the best passing QB in A&M history. And, from college numbers standpoint, every QB of Texas A&M that I mentioned was involved in Heisman talk except Tannehill. As far as pro prospects, I think Manziel is better than Tannehill.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Teddy Bridgewater & Blake Bortles seem to be doing alright thus far. They were the only two QBs I had 1st round. I had Manziel, Garoppolo, Carr & Murray as Day 2 guys if you're in need of a QB, later if you're not in need (I believe you value that position differently based on need...it's inevitable).

    I loved Teddy Bridgewater...he went on the "love" list for guys I thought were genuinely the best QB in their class and in genuine competition for #1 overall worthy. Examples of that for me over the years include Phil Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck.

    Blake Bortles wasn't quite there, really just shy of it. I had him as a genuine 1st rounder, a fully liked but not necessarily loved guy. This is the guy that may be the best QB in some classes but won't be in others, not a guy I would consider for the #1 overall pick in normal times. Examples of that in my past include Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden (would've been in the "love" category if not for age), Ryan Tannehill and Matt Barkley.

    Guys like Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, John Beck, Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and E.J. Manuel were on a different sort of list for me. I found a lot of flaws in their games but also a lot of really nice attributes, and whether you reached out and took them in the 1st round for me had a lot to do with whether you had anything going on at that position and how many of your other options were exhausted. If you're desperate, and your other (better) choices were all exhausted...yeah, take one of these guys. It's a roll of the dice, and you know that, so treat it that way. Where you take this kind of player matters to a degree, but I think what matters more is that you take the guy and then you stay committed to continuing to fill the position until it's filled.

    Then you have guys like J.P. Losman, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez, Pat White, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, Robert Griffin, Geno Smith and Johnny Manziel...guys I took pretty hard stances against in the 1st round and most of them I'd have been hard-pressed to even consider in the 2nd. There's probably a zero percent chance I would have drafted any of the above simply because my valuation relative to the market's was so far off that there was practically zero chance they were ever going to get to a spot where I'd say yeah why not, go ahead and pull the trigger.

    Some of the later guys I've taken a shine to as shot in the dark type valuation levels have included: Matt Schaub, Kellen Clemens, Brodie Croyle, Omar Jacobs, Reggie McNeal, Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith, Andre Woodson, Josh Johnson, Colt Brennan, Matt Flynn, Stephen McGee, Nate Davis, Mike Kafka, Levi Brown, T.J. Yates, B.J. Coleman, Chandler Harnish, Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron Murray.

    Every now and then it comes up that I was wrong on this guy or that guy. I get it. But I don't really feel any shame about my quarterbacks history other than maybe a guy here or there. Most of the most objectionable grades I've given have owed more to my philosophical belief that if you don't have a QB and you're not taking one, then you're not really trying to win. But the fact that some of those guys ended up good anyway (e.g. Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson) kind of shows why I have that philosophy. In my eyes that level of evaluation is reserved for guys that have not even a 50/50 chance of making it. And if I can get that percentage higher than everyone else by including say a Russell Wilson back at a time when MOST were calling him a 5th rounder, so be it.

    Probably the best that I've been on the position is when I sense something really wrong with a prospect and take a pretty big stance against him. I didn't list anyone that wasn't either ultimately taken in the 1st round, strongly considered for the 1st round, or taken 2nd round. The only guy I regret giving such a low evaluation to even a little bit is Andy Dalton, and I still have a discomfort with him as a franchise quarterback, as do many others. But all the others were guys I went after hard and pretty often...and wouldn't have touched.

    Taking a quarterback high is always a roll of the dice, unfortunately. But if I can increase the odds by weeding out bad bets, that's a good thing. Getting back to Teddy Bridgewater, some folks thought they were doing exactly that when they jumped all over him for his bad pro day...and I just thought that was silly.
     
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  40. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Though I disagree with many of the particulars I think it's important to note that your original point that 2015 could be a bit weak...could still end up correct. As I think about it, so much of the absolute quality in the 2015 crop is dependent on guys coming out of school early. And some of them will definitely not.

    Jameis Winston probably tops that list. He and his family have been consistent that he will not leave Florida State for the NFL in 2015. I know we've heard that sort of thing before but they bring up a resonant point which is they want him to graduate and get his degree. He won't have it by the time the 2015 draft rolls around. This suspension against Clemson probably only solidifies his family's desire for him to stay in school and he may ultimately want the same thing.

    I was thinking about Connor Cook and it seems like a small thing to not be voted captain by your team...but I think maybe in the back of his mind, maybe he does want to stay one more year, be a captain, have it be HIS team, and compete for a championship. This is only his second year starting as he served backup to Kirk Cousins in 2012. Traditionally the NFL likes to see three years. And keep in mind three of the games they played this year were such blowouts, he threw only 13, 6 and 12 passes in those games. That's basically one game's worth spread over three games. They lost the Oregon game and that may knock them out of contention. They play Nebraska next week and that'll be a tough game, then they play Ohio State who is looking quite beatable this year. It's not going to help them if they only beat two ranked teams in 2014 and both of them are in the late-teens to 20's. On the other hand, Cook should be a graduate this year and that's a pretty big deal. Even so...don't be shocked if he stays in school.

    Even Brett Hundley COULD stay in school. He's a redshirt junior which means he'll graduate, and this will be his third year starting which means the scouts will not discourage him from coming out. But he has to have a lot more games like that Arizona State game and he may have championships in mind, and I doubt UCLA has the tools to compete for that this year.

    You could be looking at a QB class that has only Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley along with a bunch of seniors that nobody really likes. And I've personally got my nits about both Mariota and Hundley.

    Maybe Kevin Hogan plays a wildcard. I know he does tend to strike a mediocre chord on the field but he's not Andrew Luck (nobody is Andrew Luck in college) and he's in an offense that isn't built to make a QB look sexy.

    On the other hand 2016 is shaping up to be a very nice class if indeed Jameis Winston and Connor Cook stay in. Jacoby Brissett and Taysom Hill will be in that class. David Ash could be worth monitoring. Kenny Hill seems just the type to come out early and be part of that class. Not quite sure if Christian Hackenberg would come out in that class but he certainly could as he'll have three full years of starting under his belt. Got some nice wildcard potential junior entries like Jared Goff and John O'Korn.
     

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