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QB Situation from other Teams' POV

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Feb 5, 2020.

  1. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think a lot of the problematic thinking from this board is that we often only look at the draft, free agency, etc. from the Dolphins' point of view. So, these last few days, I have been thinking about how other teams are viewing the draft. I have stumbled upon an interesting theory because of it.

    So let's look at teams in the market for a QB -

    CIN - I know there have been rumblings of a trade up with the Bengals to draft Burrow, but for the life of me, I couldn't wrap my mind around this actually happening. Going back in recent memory, I cannot think of many times in which I would rather have the second best QB in a draft class and a bunch of draft picks instead of the first best QB. Occasionally, it may have worked out where a draft class was loaded or a gem was found must later than expected. Considering this draft class in particular, taking Burrow is so risk adverse compared to all other options. Burrow just feels like the right pick. If I were Cincy, I wouldn't want to trade the pick.

    DET - As Stafford is aging, one would think this is the opportunity of a lifetime to begin the rebuilding process. That being said, the Lions have tipped their hats. Bringing back Patricia is the biggest tell in the draft. He has to know that he is in win-now mode, and using a top 3 pick on a guy that won't see the field is not gonna help him keep his job. Honestly, this is a time where situation should have dictated a Patricia firing and rebuild. Nevertheless, this is a primo opportunity for a trade, but I also don't see the Lions wanting to move too far back. Ideally, the Lions want a blue chip player AND a draft pick. I am not certain that the Lions would be willing to take a "good prospect" and draft pick.

    LAC - Okay, this is the one that is kinda interesting. They have tipped their hand and have made it clear Rivers will not be returning. They also know the Dolphins will be drafting ahead of them. Nothing in life is certain, but the Dolphins have been heavily linked to Tua. At minimum, we know the interest is real. The Lions would love to trade with the Dolphins, but the Bolts would be good partners as well. The goal is to move back but not too far back. Based on the old trade value chart, it would cost the Chargers right around their 1st, 2nd, and 4th to make it happen. The question is, "Would you be willing to give up this extra compensation for an injured QB that could be available at 6?" What makes the Chargers situation different from the Dolphins is that the Chargers were never previously linked to Tua. It only feels like a love story between the Dolphins and Tua. I could see them taking a more pragmatic approach. One little monkey wrench to throw into the mix is, "Could LA move up because they think a team drafting below them might move up?" This is possible, but Miami is rumored to be interested in Love, so Herbert, who is widely considered better, may still be there - depending on LA's internal evaluation.

    CAR - If I told you a year ago that Matt Rhule would have one of the safest jobs in all of football, I think you would call me loco. There are various opinions on the former MVP, Cam Newton. Ultimately, the question is, "Has his body given up on him?" It is conceivable that he could be playing under center for a different team in 2020. One thing I love about Cam Newton is his contract. He has one year left. I would love a wait-and-see that costs nothing beyond this year. Moving up for Tua would make sense in this scenario because you don't need to play him this year. That beings said, "Are you willing to trade up for an oft-injured QB when you have a QB with health problems of his own on your team?" Kyle Allen looked good early on, but tailed off as the season progressed. They drafted Will Grier last year, but it had to be disappointing to see him get beat out by Allen and look subpar when playing. Carolina would have to offer a package similar to the Chargers to move up. Because I think Rhule will want to use picks to start building a young team, I would expect him to want to have a multiple picks, and therefore, I expect the Panthers to be interested but not proactive.

    LV - This is actually an interesting one. Rumors are flying that they may pursue Brady when he is a free agent. I think could be a 2 year deal and possibly a promise not to draft a replacement. That being said, I feel like Gruden is lukewarm about Carr. Two firsts and a third could get them there, but does Detroit want to move back this far? Probably not. I could see Gruden enamored by Tua, and Carr could be a stopgap. The Brady situation is a factor that could prevent this from happening. I would call this possible - but unlikely.

    IND - This situation feels similar to LV because Rivers is rumored to be the QB next year. Indy does have two seconds, and could make the move. We are talking about giving their first, two seconds, and probably a 6th to get there. Indy has a pretty solid roster, and they don't need a lot to contend. Here is the real question, "Would the Lions be willing to move out of the top ten without acquiring an additional first round pick?" Despite being one pick behind Vegas, I think this is a lot harder of a deal to get done.

    TB - Talk about a team in no-man's land. I don't think they want to give Winston a big deal, and I do think they want to move on. Picking at 13, you really don't know who is going to be available. If Tampa offered their entire draft class, they would still be 300 points short. Strategically, I could see them looking to deal with Cleveland or the Jets if a QB starts slipping, but I don't really see how they get up to #3.

    Realistically, this is about it for teams that would be willing to move up. You could argue that teams could surrender first round picks in 2021, but I don't see Matt Patricia valuing them all that much. He might not be there to make those picks this time next year. Vegas and Indy could have their QB situation resolved in the offseason. If they have not been resolved, we will know this going into the draft.

    Analysis - Pessimistically, there may 3 teams looking to jump us. The Chargers would be the team that would be the most likely to make this move, and Vegas could get there if they wanted. Indy is a fringe team. If these three teams do not address QB in the offseason, there is reason to at least have some concern.

    Optimistically, there may be no teams with the ammo needed to jump us trying to get the three pick. This actually might be the most likely scenario. Guys, we may be bidding against ourselves. Remember, Tua is coming off of a serious injury, and I expect teams to proceed with caution.

    Realistically, when the dust settles, I think the Chargers are the only real threat to move up to 3. Whether or not they are willing to is another things altogether.

    *Footnote - The Giants have the forth pick and a new head coach. I could see them being a little bit more flexible as far as taking 2021 picks. If there was a wildcard team, the four spot would make more sense. Again this would be quite cost prohibitive, and you would have to see veteran head coaches like Bellichick, Payton, or Arians surrendering a bounty of draft picks to move up. I don't really see this happening.

    Guys, I really think if Tua is the guy, we are really only dodging the Bolts - maybe the Raiders. I think there is a strong chance we are bidding against nobody.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Agree with the analysis but decisions should be made with opportunity cost in mind, not just perceived probabilities of an event occurring. That is, what IF we decide to stay put and the Chargers "bolt" in front of us to take Tua. What's the cost of that??

    Tua's the closest we've been linked to a potential franchise QB in the draft since Ryan and Brees, so 2 times in the last 2 decades. These opportunities don't occur often, and I think we should be biased towards making sure we don't miss this chance, whether that's moving up 1 or 2 spots (top 2 spots are basically decided).
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah you can't take that chance because the dropoff from Tua to the next-best QB in this draft is just too great, and this has to be the draft where the team gets its QB of the future.

    Imagine if a team traded up to get Tua ahead of the Dolphins, and the Dolphins were forced to either take the next-best QB, or a player at a different position.

    Would you be willing to "rewind time" at that point and flip one of the team's first-round picks to the Lions to get up there to #3 and ensure getting Tua?

    If you would, then you should do it when you still can.
     
  4. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with both of you that paying more to ensure getting him, it would probably be worth it.

    Sticking with the theme of the this post, I am going to handle this from the Lions' perspective.

    I would wait till draft night. I would wait till right about the draft starts and call the Dolphins. This is what I would say:

    "Look, I know Tua is your guy. We've been made a pretty sizable offer. We have been offered 2 firsts, a second, and a third. You obviously have better picks, and we would rather have your picks if you match the offer, the pick is yours. If not, we are trading the pick. I understand it's a lot, and you might not want to match that offer. That is totally fine if you choose to go that route. We are going to trade the pick when we are on the clock and there is 3 minutes left. Call me back if you want the offer."

    What do you do in this situation? They literally may have no other offer on the table. The whole story might be an elaborate rouse to get us to hand them draft picks and a bundle at that. The Guy made a solid point that you can't go back and rewind time if you are wrong. There could be an actual offer.

    Here is the crazy thing. If there is an actual offer, the events would play out almost exactly the same as if there was no offer. I promise you the Dolphins will be given the chance to match.
     
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I completely agree- it's ultra tough to ask a franchise to move up for a QB that's been injured twice in the past year. I have a feeling our plan will be to sit tight at #5, or trade back if someone does jump us for Tua. I do not see us moving up unless it's for Burrow, and I only think that scenario plays out if Tua goes #1 overall (which is an extreme long-shot anyway).
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Any good GM would make that decision based on a draft board they've carefully calibrated so that the decision is automatic. Any good GM will also make enough inquiries well before the draft to get an idea of how much they'd have to give up. I also think there would be a major credibility hit to any GM that lies about that kind of an offer for future deals, so I actually think such a huge lie is unlikely.

    In any case, a lot will come down to how well Tua does in workouts. If it looks like he's the Tua pre-injury I'd seriously entertain trading up even with 2 firsts, a second and a third. But if Tua does NOT pan out, then that should be the end of Grier if he gave up that much.
     
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  7. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    There are basically 2 types of negotiations. (A) One time deals with people you never do business with again, which is the area where carnies and used car salesmen operate; and (B) deals where you do repeat business over time. In the former there is a strong incentive to lie and misrepresent things. In the latter bad faith deals will be remembered and impact on your ability to make future deals.

    The NFL is strictly a repeat business operation. Any evidence of bad faith dealing will rapidly get spread around the remaining teams and affect your future business. Also if you are bluffing there is nothing to stop the dolphins ringing the other team to find out if they are actually bidding against them. There’s a lot of caveat emptor that goes on, where teams will not actively point out downsides and assume that the other team is doing their due diligence.
     
  8. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We know there's a relationship between the Lions and Miami due to their NE ties. My hope is that the relationship is strong enough that we'd get an honest heads up if they were considering an offer.
     
  9. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    None of this would be relevant if we'd tanked properly. Just two more losses in those close games against Cincy and Indy and we would be sitting pretty now, not looking over our shoulders in squeaky bum time. It's the Dolphins way I'm afraid.
     
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  10. Ryan1973

    Ryan1973 New Member

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    Exactly! All they had to do was lose to the Bengals and they couldn't even do that. That win is meaningless right now.
     
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  11. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Jeez, we weren't tanking. Just because the media and the NFL talking heads said we were, the coaching staff & the players weren't - why is that so difficult to understand.
     
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  12. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wrong, no win is meaningless
     
  13. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    Yes it is, in the grand scheme of things. That win could cost us in the long term. It might not and I hope it doesn't but if it does, what do we do then?
     
  14. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I wouldn't trade up for Tua. I'm hesitant to even draft him at 5.
     
  15. Ryan1973

    Ryan1973 New Member

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    Oh really? I beg to differ. The Dolphins finished 5-11. So if they finished 3-13 or 4-12 big f'ing deal. The Dolphins would have been in a much better position draft wise.
     
  16. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's just not. Did it not show us what the coaching staff was able to do with "the worst roster in the history of the NFL" (so the talking heads tell us). If we'd won 2 games (or lost to the Bengals) and looked terrible, would you honestly have had any faith in the coaching staff to take the team forward?
    Also, by playing well and winning, it not only allowed the staff to evaluate a lot of promising young players but also makes us a more attractive option for free agents.
    So we lost one draft position, whoop dee do - in the long term this is going to benefit us.
     
  17. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You could not be more wrong. This showed us (with "the worst roster in the history of the NFL") that we might finally have got something in terms of a decent coaching staff and also evaluated a lot of young players to give us some building blocks.
     
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  18. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Stafford would be considered aging if this was 1996.. hes 32... and has at least 8 years under him..
     
  19. Ryan1973

    Ryan1973 New Member

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    And you don't think by going 3-13 and being competitive in a lot of their games wouldn't have revealed the same thing about the coaching staff? So you think we have a decent coaching staff by going 5-11 but the same coaching staff would suck if they went 3-13? That makes no sense at all!
     
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  20. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    He's 32 and coming off two consecutive seasons with back injuries and has never won a playoff game. Any team without a GM/HC in a win now mandate would cut bait and select a QB at #3. It makes a helluva lot more sense than taking a DT or CB in the top 3, that is just not good positional value for the pick at all. Then again, they took a freaking TE at 8 last year. Their GM (Bob Quinn) hasn't showed any real ability to negotiate, has made odd moves and generally doesn't inspire confidence. I don't think we are going to get bent over the barrel by them.

    As far as the Lions go, if they aren't taking Tua, they need to play teams off each other. Go to Miami, LAC, Jags, Colts, Raiders and Buccos and tell them to start putting in bids now. Then keep the other teams updated to keep driving the price up.

    However, we could see some QB situations resolved in free agency. The Raiders sound like they want Brady, and the Bucs have been linked to Rivers. Once that dust settles is likely when teams will start to really put their nose to the trade grindstone and start working out scenarios.
     
  21. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with your analysis, but I think this is a situation where you could probably get away with a fast one. Think about all the times you have heard rumors about trade or signings, and out of nowhere, Adam Schefter announces a "mystery team" has entered in the negotiations. Now here is where things get wonky. Sometimes there is a mystery team, and sometimes, I gotta wonder, "Was the mystery team simply made up?"

    If you are in the Lions' camp, you might not even name the team, and if Grier asks, I would simply say, "It is a team that does not wish to be named. They have an established starter, but quietly would like to upgrade the position."

    A cryptic response like that could be a bluff, but there are also teams that it would actually make sense for.

    Could the Eagles be dissatisfied with Wentz's trajectory?
    Could the Cowboys not feel comfortable with Dak's contract demands?
    Is there something to the rumor that Gase never really liked Darnold?
    Are the Falcons starting to think that Matt Ryan is getting older?
    Are the Rams having buyers' remorse with Goff?
    Could Baker Mayfield's struggles made him difficult to

    Here is the thing. Any of these are conceivable? Some probably are more conceivable than others, but any of them could be true.

    How would you ever know if any of these teams ever had contact with the Dolphins.

    Hypothetically, let's just say it was the Jets, and Gase is not too fond of Darnold. If the Dolphins matched the offer, and moved up, it would only make things worse for the Jets if they found out they were trying to replace Darnold. They would immediately deny, deny, deny.

    Realistically, the only way the Dolphins would find out is if they declined the trade, and the Lions made the pick.

    You might say that it could hurt relations in the future, but I think that necessity would outweigh spite in the future.
     
  22. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    In a previous career I negotiated personal injury settlements for an insurance company. Vague threats almost never work [NB in this case I am treating the possibility of trading the chance to pick your coveted player to another team as a threat]. After your get shown to be bluffing once the word gets around and you’ve lost your credibility. For a threat to work you need to have teeth, you need to be able to put specifics on the table.

    For an example from my insurance days: If I say to the opposing side ‘I want a discount because I have video of evidence of your guy‘, then any half way competent lawyer will shrug their shoulders and say ‘of course you do’. However if I say “Your guy is a lot more active playing basketball than what he says he is capable of”, then the other side gets worried. They might come back and say “it was only one time and he had to lie up in bed for a week afterwards’, to which I’d respond “Well ask your client about the XYZ team in the ABC league”. As the insurer I’d rarely tell them exactly what and how much I had, but without specifics the threats almost never got any movement.
     
  23. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And you don't think the 5 wins were great for the team? Not much I can say really - I like the wins and we will then see how the draft falls. I have more faith in this coaching staff that I didn't have previously and a drop of 1 draft slot is not going to change that.
    Also, that 1 draft slot won't make a blind bit of difference if Grier makes a mess of the offseason.
     
  24. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Hey Pauly,

    Sorry for the delay, but your post has had my head spinning for days. I kinda want to pick your brain.

    I feel like you and others on here have argued that because teams will need to build long term relationships, they should negotiate in good faith. I was hoping to get your response to a rebuttal that has crossed my mind for some time. We all know that the NFL stands for "not for long." If you look at both the Lions and the Dolphins, neither one of these teams are beacons of stability. I keep thinking to myself, "Who even knows if the people that you are negotiating with today will even be here tomorrow?" The Lions probably need to put together a good season, or everyone might be gone. Honestly, it is quite likely that the people in Detroit that are bluffing might not be around to feel the consequences. I think the same thing hold true in Miami. I think Flores did an exceptional job last year, but in the back of my mind, next year, I think if Jim Harbaugh told Mr. Ross that he is interested in our HC job, it would be at least considered. That being said, the Dolphins regime that is here today might be gone tomorrow. So, I guess I am asking you, would your feelings of resentment stick with the Lions if there was an entirely new front office?

    I also wonder how strong you think the connection is with the insurance industry. I would assume to some degree that lawyers are supposed to be ethical. I feel like trading draft picks is a game of poker. I don't get mad when people bluff me in poker because that's part of the game. I do think trading for players is different than trading for picks. I think that there may be things you should in good conscious disclose about a player prior to a trade.

    Finally, I wanted to ask you, "If you worked for the Lions, how would you handle negotiations?"

    I have seen this go down in several ways:

    - I remember one team (may the Rams with the RGIII trade - but my memory might be wrong) told teams submit your best offer by a certain date and time, and if any offers meet our minimum requirements, we will take the best offer.

    -Would you get this knot knit up earlier rather than later? The Jets moved up to three super early and landed Darnold. Or would wait till the day of the draft? Do you really think that the value changes? Is it possible that the value actually goes down?

    -Finally, how would you negotiate with the Dolphins? Do you think the Dolphins make the first offer or the Lions? Suppose the Lions say, "Give me the fifth and the Steelers' pick, and the third pick is yours." What if without hesitation, Grier says, "Done." You'd have to be thinking to yourself, "How much more would he have been willing to give?"

    If you don't make the first offer, theoretically, there will be only one offer on the table. Suppose Grier makes you a fair offer? What do you do then? You made a valid point about negotiating in good faith. Now you have a fair offer on the table, and you are gonna jerk the Dolphins around. Despite the Dolphins' obvious desperation, part of me thinks that Grier can still actually garner leverage with a fair deal approach. If you offered the Lions the 5th pick and the 39th pick you would be overpaying according the to the draft chart. Suppose Grier sweetened the deal with a 2nd next year too. To me, that is more than a fair deal. This is where Grier could actually leverage this deal. He could say that this deal has an expiration date on it. You have 48 hours, if you get a better deal, call me. If not, I am assuming that we are overpaying, and I will make you an offer, but it won't be as good as the first one.

    I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks.
     
  25. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    There is very little evidence of Lions GM Bob Quinn being able to pull a fast one or out-negotiate pretty much anyone, he's very much shown himself to be a lower tier GM in the league. In their case, there is no impetus to strike a deal early for anything other than a grossly overwhelming offer. It is quite possible that we - or another team - try to leapfrog them to the #2 slot with Washington. This would leave the Lions able to take Chase Young at 3rd, which would be the dream scenario.

    If that doesn't happen and they don't want a QB themselves, the positional value doesn't work for them at #3. They would be best served to tell Miami, the Chargers, Jags and Panthers to submit their best offers and just take the best. I say those teams because it keeps the Lions in the top 10 with a shot at Simmons, Okudah or Brown, with fallbacks being Jeudy or a top OL. They will still get an elite player at a need position and likely pick up some additional slots to use this year too. They will value picks this year over next year because they are on the hot seat.

    We really need to go through the free agency period before Grier can start to lock down who he thinks might be our biggest competition though. Focusing on a team like the Chargers while they lock up, say, Tom Brady, Cam Newton or Derek Carr to a deal for instance.
     
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  26. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    In professional poker there are some pretty strict ethics, for example you can’t hide or obscure big chips behind smaller value chips in your stack. Having said that there is a difference between bluffing, which is not correcting an opponent’s assumptions, and deceit which is deliberately hiding or obscuring the truth.
    Some NFL examples, in the Al Davis years the Raiders made a trade involving (iirc) a 3rd round pick. What Al Davis neglected to mention to his trade partner was that it wasn’t the Raider’s original 3rd round pick but a much later pick because of a prior trade. When the team making the trade complained the NFL rules in Davis’ favor because the original trade was public knowledge and it was the other team’s fault for not being aware of/specifying the specific pick. Davis’ argument was that he thought that since it was public knowledge he assumed the other team must have been aware. As I understand it now all trades in the NFL reference the pick number to prevent getting caught by this again. In terms of ethics it’s kind of grey, but if I was a GM of a team not involved in the trade I’d probably side with Davis as being in the right and the trade partner as making a stupid mistake.
    Whenn Jimmy Johnson made the Hershel Walker trade there were 2 or 3 Minnesota veterans involved. They had escalators in the trade agreement saying that the picks would upgrade to higher rounds if the players didn’t play a certain number of snaps, which is a common condition in many trades. JJ then sat the payers on the bench and didn’t play them, even though they were healthy. When Minnesota appealed the NFL ruled the escalator provisions would not be triggered because JJ had in effect negotiated in bad faith.

    Basically if the other side makes a bad assumption that’s fair game. However if you lie to them then there will be bad consequences.

    Even the NFL is the Not For Long league there are some things that remain the same even if a GM gets canned from one job. Firstly a lot of GMs get recycled and move to different teams in different positions and eventually get another shot at being a GM. Secondly the owner will remember and may well tale being deceived personally, and owner’s tend to stay for a very long time. Thirdly Other teams and GMs see what happens. In my insurance days there was a lawyer who didn’t tell another insurance company that his client had terminal cancer (so future losses should be calculated for 2 or 3 years, not 30 years). When it got found out that the client had told the lawyer but the lawyer hadn’t told the court or the other insurer what happened is that every single insurance company refused to settle with the lawyer and started taking every case of his to trial (as a rule of thumb over 98% of civil cases get settled without trial) and ruined his business. As a GM you need to be able to have people willing to deal with you in order to make trades.

    I’ll add what I’d do as Lion’s GM later.
     
  27. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Like I had said previously, I am not entirely sure that there will be a market for the third pick of the draft. One other side note consider is the fact that teams, which I assume presume know that the Dolphins want the third pick, come to realize is that they simply cannot compete with the Dolphins in terms of trading draft picks. Let's say, the Chargers really like Tua and really want him. Let's say, they are willing to give an additional 2021 first round pick. We could give them a first round pick this year. I am not being a homer when I say, nobody can make a better offer than the Dolphins and other teams know this. The only way for another team to land that pick is to make an offer so large that the Dolphins refuse to match. Remember, we are talking about a QB coming off a serious injury. I just don't see this happening.

    Could another try to bid up the price? Yeah, I guess. I really don't know what that accomplishes though. Hurting one team helps another, so whatever. I guess you could say the Chargers are conference rivals, then again, you could say that Carolina would rather Miami be better.

    There is a very real chance that the teams may become resigned to the fact that they won't be getting Tua. I f eel like any professional would begin to set his sights on a QB that could be realistically obtained whether that be Love or Herbert.

    So, just suppose there really isn't a market for the pick. It still feels like a trade between these two teams is a matter of destiny. In reality, the Lions are only falling behind one pick, and they know it. They could tell the Dolphins, "We'll flip picks if you give us the 39th pick." According to the trade value chart, it is basically a fair trade. Because they are being honest, they have put themselves in position to get screwed.

    Grier would know that the Lions are most likely going to get the player they want at 3 at 5. They are gonna pay him less. And because they are not negotiating, they know there is no better offer available. Grier probably still wants the pick and says, "We'll flip picks, and toss you a third." I feel like this would be like the year the Dolphins traded up with the Raiders. They said no to our first trade proposal, and after a few minutes called back up and took it. They are getting a third round pick for nothing.

    Seriously, I think the Lions would be better off lying and saying they are getting more. Tell the Dolphins the Chargers have offered a 1st, a 2nd, and a 2nd next year. Now this is such a juicy lie. Grier would probably be thinking, "This is a bluff." But the bluff is not a crazy bluff. It is not, "We've been offered three firsts." Grier might say, "I might be getting suckered, but in the end, it's probably still worth it just to ensure we get our guy."

    I think honesty really does hurt the Lions.
     
  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Nov 29, 2007
    Firstly. When I look at the Redskin’s situation I really don’t think we should rule them out. Of the Tua market. The have new coaches who are not wedded to the existing QBs and their QB situation needs to be upgraded. Even if they really like Chase Young someone who really liked Tua could offer a bundle of picks to move up to the #2 spot.

    Negotiations depend a lot on interpersonal relationships. So how it plays out in reality will depend on who the GMs involved are, their personalities and how they get on.
    Let’s assume for the minute that the #2 pick is spent on Chase Young. As I said I’m not sure that’s a safe assumption. What the Lion’s want is a bidding war. Assuming that the Dolphins and Chargers are the main players. The Jaguars could be involved, as could the Giants if the new regime decide to do an Arizona.
    What you want to engineer is an auction where the starting price seems reasonable enough that you get the attention of the players and then as they commit to the game they will overbid because they have already committed so much, so a little more seems reasonable. What I would try to do is elicit competing bids from at least 2 suitors before contacting the Dolphins, if you’re the Lions you really want all 3 of the Dolphin’s picks, so hopefully you’ve got a high enough bid to put you in sight of that goal when you get on the phone to the Dolphins. Then after you have a first bid from the Dolphins you go back to the other players to give them a chance to match. If you van get a higher bid, you then go back to the phins.
     

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