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QB Need/Talent in the Draft

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DolphinGreg, Jan 26, 2021.

  1. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Personally, I don't see teams trading up for QBs in this draft.

    I think there are serious questions about any of the #2, #3, #4 and #5 guys in this draft being worth trading up for. Justin Fields was the obvious #2 until he had some questionable games this year. Meanwhile Kyle Trask lacks the arm talent and Zach Wilson doesn't have the resume. I don't even think we should be talking about them as R1 QBs quite frankly.

    If the NYJ pass on a QB, I doubt anyone trades up with Miami considering the Dolphins are no threat to draft one either. And I just don't see the Falcons and Panthers getting in a fistfight over who gets the runner-up in this year's QB class. The Falcons are stuck with Matt Ryan for awhile and the Panthers are in great position to be patient and take what falls. The Eagles will likely give Wentz more time and the Lions are probably best patching things up with Matthew Stafford who's a better talent than anyone in this draft outside of Trevor Lawrence.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2021
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    History says otherwise. Except for the last 2 drafts, the trend has been LOTS of trade-ups for QB's in the 1st round, or even for top 10 picks, regardless of whether it's thought to be a strong or weak QB class.

    In 2018, the Jets traded up for Darnold, Bills traded up for Allen, Arizona traded up for Rosen, and Baltimore traded up for Jackson. The 2017 draft was even worse because that was considered a weak QB class, even though it might end up being one of the better ones in history with Mahomes and Watson. Chicago traded up for Trubisky, KC traded up for Mahomes, and Houston traded up for Watson. Same with 2016 when you saw trade-ups for Goff, Wentz and Lynch.

    The expectation should be that teams will not only trade up for QB's, they're likely to overpay w.r.t. the draft chart. For example, that Jets trade from #6 to #3 in the 1st was a complete fleecing by the Colts according to the draft chart, who got 2 2nd's that year and one 2nd the next year. That was worth 2,200 points for the Jets and 3,100 point for the Colts.

    So I'd expect a LOT of interest in trading up for a QB this year. Value-wise the best option for us is to trade back to #6 or #7, still grab a top WR prospect, receive at least the equivalent of a low 1st and probably more given the demand for QB's.
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah as long as Patrick Mahomes is dominating the league and there isn't a team that has anybody who can compete with him, trade-ups to the early 1st round for QBs will continue.

    Really the entire league needs to take notice here, because we could very easily be looking at a situation where Mahomes and company dominate the league in a way very similar to the Chicago Bulls of the Michael Jordan era. The Chiefs just had no problem dismantling the hottest team in the league with another top QB. The performance differential here is becoming staggering.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's much harder in football because the defense is a separate unit. The 2 greatest dynasties in NFL history are the Patriots 2001-2019 and 49ers 1981-1998. In both cases you had an elite or near-elite offense (with an elite QB) AND an elite or near-elite defense for almost every year of the dynasty.

    The question for Mahomes is whether KC can put together a near-elite defense for a decade or more. We'll see.

    Also, don't forget that no team in SB history has won the SB 3 times in a row, just going to show how hard it is to dominate, especially through championships, as in basketball. But yes, the demand for elite QB's will continue. That's true however whether Mahomes is in the league or not — too much evidence for the importance of the QB independent of him.
     
  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Its a VERY QB thirsty year...and most of that thirst will get quenched, whether the prospects deserve an R1 designation or not.

    There's logic, then there's "we need a QB yesterday!" logic. Trask may end up R2, Mac Jones probably R1...but the top 4 are going to have suitors, and GMs will trade-up if they think another team will trade-up ahead of them for the same pick, especially in the top 10. That 3 pick could end being heavily over-valued in a trade scenario...I'd love to see it.

    Last I saw Stafford was a goner...being actively shopped. They want to start fresh with a young gun, and the smaller cap hit.
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The issue with Mahomes is that he plays better -- even than he normally does -- in obvious passing situations and from behind. And so in that sense he "plays defense." That isn't true of the other top QBs.

    This year KC's defense was 19th in the league in EPA per play, and the Chiefs nonetheless lost only one regular season game (other than the last one in which Chad Henne started), by a score of 40-32. This team is downright dominant.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, but Mahomes isn't the best ever. Steve Young's career z-score (including all bad years) is 1.8627. Mahomes hasn't had a SINGLE year that matched that. So the need for a good defense over a long period of time has been established even for the elite of the elite. Also, Young was #1 in passer rating for 6 years!! Mahomes hasn't done that once yet.

    So Mahomes isn't something historically unprecedented in terms of efficiency. Yes KC will need a very good defense to be dominant, even if in some years they can get away with one that isn't.
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Consider though that of the 32 QBs in the league with at least 850 plays 2018-2020, Mahomes's regular season EPA per play is highest in the league at 2.54 standard deviations above league average. Next highest during that time period is Brees at 1.83. Beyond them we are at 1.06 SDs or lower.
     
  9. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There's definitely always a few teams looking for QBs, you guys are correct about that, but (aside from Lawrence and maybe Fields) this class seems like one of the worst I can remember going back to the year that EJ Manuel was the only guy who got picked. I'm telling you, my respect for this class is low.

    Goff and Wentz and Mahomes and Watson were all great prospects as were Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen and Jackson. They all got a lot of press based on their abilities. This is just my opinion of course, but I view Fields as a top-10 guy, mostly elevated by someone's desire to take a QB as you guys are describe. But I view Wilson as a 10-25 guy (at best) and the rest as R2 or later guys. The idea we might see 3-4 guys in the top-10 this year just isn't something I'm predicting.

    And plus, several of the recent rebuilds have dropped young QBs into a good situations. Seattle did that with Wilson. Mahomes and Watson both got dropped onto good teams. Miami ended up with 10-wins thanks to their defensive rebuild taking priority. And Herbert took over a pretty loaded offense as well. Meanwhile, teams like the NYJ who've stuck young QBs on bad teams have largely sucked. I don't see the Falcons doing any sort of drastic rebuild. I think the Panthers will likely stick with Bridgewater again next year continuing to add core talent this year. The Eagles and Lions are up in the air but again, both teams need to focus on core talent more than QB. IN fact, I suspect the best future of both teams lies in using Wentz and Stafford (do I even need to say that?!).

    My feeling is teams are going to learn from this and ultimate begin to demonstrate a little more patience waiting on exactly who they want. I have no doubt teams will pounce when they're entirely sold on a prospect, but I don't see anyone falling in love with somebody like Kyle Trask. He's going to be this year's Fromm and disappear quietly into the ether once drafted (IMHO). Wilson may have a shot but he's still a huge reach if picked high. Maybe he'll go in that EJ Manuel / Johnny Manziel / Brandon Weeden range of 15-22.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2021
  10. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    We'll see...teams do stupid **** all the time. Miami drafted Tannehill (who I still love btw, not dogging him) at 7...that was WAY too high. He was far too behind in NFL development/readiness to be called a #7 overall pick, but he was still one of the top few QBs in the draft. Its the position. Hell look at what was traded for RG3! Teams go ignernt over some QB talent...and hardly ever get it dead-on right.

    I think 3 are definitely going top 10, with a strong shot at 4 (if no trades, Lawrence #1 Jags, Fields #2 Jets, Wilson #7 Lions, Lance #8 Panthers). Gonna be a wild draft, can't wait!
     
  11. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, I think for me it's that it's a confluence of the QB class not being very attractive past the top 1-2 guys as well as the teams up at the top not really being hamstrung. People are talking about the Falcons, Eagles, Lions and Panthers potentially taking QBs but all 3 could easily (and probably should) stick with what they've got.

    (4) - Falcons (Matt Ryan has big contract - they're stuck with Ryan and so they're smart to just build around him)
    (6) - Eagles (Carson Wentz has big contract - plus, c'mon, his upside demands he be given another year to right the ship)
    (7) - Lions (Matt Stafford has big contract - plus, c'mon, he's better than anyone here not named Lawrence)
    (8) - Panthers (Teddy Bridgewater has 2-years left on his deal but he's far from terrible, do they merely address other needs?)
    (9) - Broncos (Drew Lock's on a cheap rookie deal but will they give up on him?)
    (15) - Patriots (?)
    (20) - Bears (?)
    (21) - Colts (?)
    (24) - Steelers (?)
    (25) - Saints (?)

    I see a lot of teams later on in the draft that could definitely be looking at QBs but would any of them give up what it takes to get up into the top-10? I really doubt it.

    Justin Fields I accept as a prospect who'll likely go up high but I think people are talking up the other 3 merely because they're assuming a bunch of QBs have to go high. That's not always the case. There are years where the talent spreads itself out.

    QBs don't have to go up high:

    2012 saw Weeden go at #22, Osweiler go in R2, Wilson go in R3 and Cousins go in R4.
    2013 saw Manuel go at #16, Geno Smith go in R2, Glennon go in R3, Barkley in R4, etc.
    2014 saw Manziel go at #22, Bridgewater go at #32, Carr & Garoppolo go in R2, etc.
    2015 saw Winston/Mariota go at the top but the #3 guy wasn't taken until R3.

    I could keep going but you get the point. Sometimes guys bunch together but it's rare. Most of the time QB talent spreads itself out.
     
  12. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    I'd move on from Ryan and Wentz. Ryan's Superbowl loss took the moxie out of him. He could use a fresh start for his twilight years. Maybe Morris can get the most out of him though...if he's hired.

    Wentz other than a half season has not shown much. I'd move on if I was the new GM.

    Bridgewater still shows potential, with more talent...

    49ers and Colts should look to trade up...as they have the teams in place to help a rookie succeed.
     
  13. Fishhead

    Fishhead Active Member

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    The early part of the offseason is going to have an impact on where some of this year’s quarterbacks are taken. Where Watson, Stafford and (dare we say it) Aaron Rodgers end up will play a big part in draft needs and trade possibilities on April 29th.
     
  14. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Stafford is as good as gone, he has asked for a trade and the new Lions' brass are apparently more than happy to do so. Plus they just brought in Dorsey to the FO, and imo they didn't do that to have him evaluate linebackers.

    The Falcons probably should move on from Ryan, but that contract may be untradeable. The Eagles are apparently all-in on Wentz, they fired Pederson who it seemed preferred to go with Hurts and brought Wentz's mentor's (Frank Reich) right hand guy to coach the team. He's going nowhere.

    Bridgewater gives Carolina some flexibility. They don't have to force the matter, but he's eminently replaceable.

    Drew Locke is just bad, enough so that Elway threw up his hands and transitioned out of the GM role.

    Teams that could really use an upgrade and a draft QB or seek a new guys imo are Jags, Jets, Falcons, Lions, Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys, Giants, Vikings, Patriots, Raiders, Football Team, Bears, Colts, Steelers, Saints. That's like half the entire league. Not all of those teams are desperate, but have guys who just aren't getting it done like Cousins, Trubisky and Carr. Some teams will prefer a vet like Stafford to a rookie, but with THAT much demand it's hard not to see QBs going early and fast. I wouldn't be shocked to see the top 4 guys go top 4 and Jones and Trask go later in the first or early second.

    Personally, if it let's us trade down, that's advantageous to us. Our needs don't really match the value at the top of the draft or traditional early draft positional value.
     
  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    We'll see how it shakes out come the draft. That's the great thing about guessing and trying to predict what they'll do. Nobody ever gets it totally right, so we'll probably all be in for some surprise.
     
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  16. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The point of the matter is that Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz have very large contracts. Those teams can't simply give up on those guys given their financial ties, even if that's what those teams wanted to do.

    If it were simply about moving on, I'd agree. I think Atlanta probably would explore the idea. I don't know how Philly feels about Wentz TBH.
     
  17. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Lemme tell you something. The closer you get to draft day, the more valuable QBs become. Teams fall in love. This is as certain as flowers blooming in the spring. Don't overthink it.
     
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