But it's a useless fact. Henning was a horrible OC last year. It was the worst OC performance I can recall seeing at the NFL level. I detailed during the season why I thought he was doing such a horrid job. My guess is that Henning was checked out for most of the season. He had a couple of games where he seemed to respond to criticism, but for the vast majority of the games I believe we would have been better off with a random play generator. And I disagree about the statement applying to any OC. Good OCs adjust to the skills of their players and there are some of those in the league.
Anyone can also play the devils advocate card in any debate against any side. Point is there were very troubling tendencies that became very obvious with Henning's game calls. If you didn't see that then it's not even worth discussing. What I find funny is that everyone is clamouring for a QB that arguably had a worse first full year starting than Henne did and then failed to win back a starting job until his 4th year in the league because he couldn't wrestle the job away from Rex Grossman which by all counts has been a failed NFL QB prospect to this point. If we were Bears fans discussing Orton coming out of year 3 there would be fans saying the exact same things as they are about Henne. Kinda brings the whole development timeline argument into perspective.
Yes, there were tendencies. Why those tendencies arose is whats debatable. Why were there so many routes coming back to the QB? Why was there so much playaction in odd situations? What is telling though is that when the season was over, Henne's teammates didn't shy away from saying how they felt.
Great, a haven for every reject QB in the NFL. I didnt neglect anything. I stated he argument against orton, as if there should actually need to be one other then the fact he lead his team to a 3-10 record and the fact that Orton produced a 58QBR in the 4th quarter when within 7 actually just ends your cause of wanting a QB who can produce when its close and late.
Just heard on FOX Sports that the Vikings have the hots for Orton. They are saying he will more than likely end up there.
Yes, as opposed to giving no competition to a QB that was publicly called out by teammates after last season.
Would make sense, or McNabb. Whomever we sign we are more then likely going to run the ball primary I'd think.
Nope, it doesn't. Cause all I got to do is flash back to 09 and see that Orton actually produced reasonably well when trailing by a close margin. The problem is, I never ever see Chad Henne doing reasonably well (say, posting a 80+ rating or throwing more TDs than INTs) in any other situation than playing from behind. I mean, it's kinda helpful he's actually quite good when trailing because stat-wise, he does zip all to avoid it. But if you ask me, I'd rather have the QB that has shown he can handle himself in more than one game situation and actively tries not to fall behind to begin with.
Not sure McNabb will be available. But if he is, I think he'll be looking for more of a commitment than Young. I think you could sign Young and tell him he probably won't start until he shows something.
Nice. That's the thing about those statistical "trends". When the sample pool is low, what you think is a "trend" could just be a data point. You've illustrated well how the 58.3 QB Rating when trailing by 7 or less in the 4th quarter is such a fine subset (i.e. small sample) that it's probably just a random coincidence. I believe Boik14 brought up another concern about the differential between Orton's home and away QB Ratings in 2010, suggesting that Orton may have been aided by the atmosphere or some other thing that won't apply to Miami. But, look at his home/away differential in 2009. It's nearly the same, except opposite. Way better QB Ratings away than home.
Oh, how fast thee forgets the horrors of Mike Mularkey. Henning, at least, was consistently quirky. Mularkey, on the other hand, actively tried to sabotage himself. That, to me, was the worst OC performance I've ever witnessed in Miami, simply because the dude would go from rock solid to have-you-lost-your-bloody-mind in a snap. Got rid of that habit in Atlanta, became a good one.
True but Henne also was a part of the reason this team won 7 games as much as he was a reason they lost 8 under his watch. Orton produced 3-10. Id rather sink or swim with a 3rd year starter knowing that if we suck we are going to be in prime position to land a stud Qb next year. With Orton, you give up a valuable pick you may NEED to procure a stud QB next year and you may suck this year. So not only do you mortgage your future, but you miss out on the position that has landed you in this very situation to begin with
We don't agree then. If you asked me to pick one of Henning, Brown, Forester or Mularkey to be our OC this season and I'd say Mularkey without hesitation.
In other words: Your argument against Orton got shot down so now we'll quickly switch to a topic that has nothing whatsoever to do it
If you really want to look at Orton's splits, I like the 3-Year Average function on Yahoo. Here are the QB Ratings splits for Orton based on the last 3 years: Home - 87.9 Away - 86.4 Games 1-8 - 90.6 Games 9-16 - 82.7 September - 94.8 October - 96.0 November - 86.4 December - 73.7 In Win - 102.4 One-Sided - 86.1 Not Close - 84.6 In Loss - 78.9 Close - 91.9 Late & Close - 82.0
Yeah, especially if as Clayton said, we are his "only" resort if he washes out here he likely will not have a chance to start for quite sometime. Orton is my #1 Qb, Young #2, not married to Orton just think of the available options he fits what we do the most closely at the best price.
Heck, yeah. But that's because Mularkey actually got better. But if you asked me which one in the past I considered worst, I'd say Mularkey simply because that guy managed to shoot himself in the foot in the most spectacular and uncalled for fashion. Your standards may certainly differ, but outsmarting oneself at precisely the wrong time is the one OC flaw I loathe the most. I'd rather have total incompetence. That doesn't drive me nearly as silly.
The only QB thats close to a sure thing is Andrew Luck. And there is almost no chance you get him unless you have the #1 pick. But regardless, sinking next season with Chad Henne as your QB is opening yourself up to destroying whatever has been built. Brandon Marshall alone would cause so many problems, that it pales in comparison to a 3rd round pick. What would be his motivation to show up on time, if he feels he's going to fail either way? Are the defensive players going to keep working hard if their work goes for nothing? You're telling everyone else in that locker room that you don't care about them, you only care about getting a high draft pick next year in hopes of finding a knight in shining armor. All because you wanted to see if a QB would "sink or swim", after those same guys already told you last year he's sunk.
It didnt get shot down. Dont get it twisted. We complain about Henne's completion % but Orton was at 58.8 and 62.1 on an offense that has a QB friendly system. The system part was part of the argument from my initial post. In wins: 68.9comp rate/8TD/1INT In losses: 55.7/12/8 For Henne: In wins: 58.7 comp rate/7TD/4INT In losses: 63.3/8/15 Henne 4th QTR within 7: 55.7 comp rate/2TD/4INT/58.4 Orton 4th QTR within 7: 49.3/1/2/58.8 QBR Thats worth a 3rd round pick? Wheres the big improvement? Im not seeing it. One guy is great in wins but never wins and puts up numbers in a QB friendly offense. One guy wins at a near 500 clip but has crappy stats. 6 of 1, half a dozen of another if you ask me.
Orton, McNabb, Hasselbeck, Young...I'm not married to one necessarily. But you're going to have to bring someone credible in.
As long as you keep relying on such small sample sizes your statistical trend analyses will remain misguided, IMO. Maybe misguided is a bad word to use because it sounds like an insult but I don't know another word for poorly aimed...
12-8 TD-INT ratio for one in losses 8-15 TD-INT ratio for the other in losses Yes, I would say thats absolutely worth a third round pick.
Mularkey was a good OC for the Steelers too as I recall. Either way, I guess we agree, Henning of 2010 wasn't the worst OC we can ever remember, which was the opinion I was responding to to begin with.
That's because you don't bother to look beyond 2010 and take a single stat as gospel when it's as likely to be, as CK put it, a mere data point. In 2009, Orton had a 106.8 rating in the 4th and within 7. Yeah, in 2010, he stank in the same category. But unlike Chad Henne, Kyle Orton has shown that he can perform at a high level in every game situation. Chad Henne stank in nearly all game situations in 2010 and was playing sub-average in nearly all game situations in 2009. In fact, Chad Henne spectacularly regressed in all but one category: playing from a mile behind.
Just to compare... the two top tier quarterbacks, three talked about alternatives, and Chad Henne. PEYTON MANNING Home - 87.6 Away - 104.1 Games 1-8 - 100.5 Games 9-16 - 89.9 September - 117.2 October - 100.6 November - 83.3 December - 94.6 In Win - 99.6 One-Sided - 96.5 Not Close - 97.7 In Loss - 84.8 Close - 93.5 Late & Close - 104.2 TOM BRADY Home - 112.4 Away - 93.9 Games 1-8 - 97.6 Games 9-16 - 109.5 September - 91.8 October - 104.6 November - 104.8 December - 111.6 In Win - 111.4 One-Sided - 105.4 Not Close - 112.2 In Loss - 80.6 Close - 88.6 Late & Close - 67.3 (not a typo) CARSON PALMER Home - 86.4 Away - 79.8 Games 1-8 - 86.2 Games 9-16 - 78.8 September - 73.4 October - 94.8 November - 74.9 December - 91.8 In Win - 88.2 One-Sided - 82.8 Not Close - 79.5 In Loss - 79.5 Close - 85.3 Late & Close - 86.9 VINCE YOUNG Home - 91.9 Away - 85.4 Games 1-8 - 98.0 Games 9-16 - 82.7 September - 96.9 October - 95.3 November - 93.9 December - 78.6 In Win - 101.5 One-Sided - 88.7 Not Close - 85.4 In Loss - 68.9 Close - 92.1 Late & Close - 74.6 MATT HASSELBECK Home - 76.7 Away - 72.0 Games 1-8 - 78.8 Games 9-16 - 70.1 September - 80.2 October - 72.0 November - 85.0 December - 60.0 In Win - 90.9 One-Sided - 72.5 Not Close - 72.3 In Loss - 63.0 Close - 85.3 Late & Close - 66.8 CHAD HENNE Home - 79.5 Away - 70.4 Games 1-8 - 78.0 Games 9-16 - 73.0 September - 80.6 October - 80.7 November - 73.7 December - 72.0 In Win - 85.0 One-Sided - 71.9 Not Close - 69.5 In Loss - 67.8 Close - 79.1 Late & Close - 53.6
That, too. A difference of 12 "big plays" in 8 games. Absolutely. Heck, any CB that would provide as many positive plays in as many games would command a first round selection.
I disagree, I think Marshall runs his mouth too much at times and seeing as thats where the only criticism came from of any real significance well, Marshall just has to shut up.
I dont take it as an insult, Im pretty thick-skinned. I wont sit here and tell you Ive never been wrong so hey, maybe I am misguided. But based on everything i saw the last two years from Orton, I dont want him. Within the context of a 3-10 record thats hardly worth a 3rd round pick. We will agree to disagree bro. I respect your opinion but I dont see it that way. Maybe youre right; we will find out when he lands in Minny, Miami or wherever. Well what changed from 2009 to 2010? he had the same unsteadiness and turnover that Henne had in different respects. The coaching situation became a little more tumultuous, he lost Marshall to trade, and his team declined. For Henne, same thing with the coaching situation, Brown and Williams suffered severe dropoffs in skill, and playcalling was worse then ever. Im not saying Henne didnt regress, I know he did. But so did Orton in some respects. Like I said above, maybe I'm wrong but Ive said what I have to say and we will find out in a few months who was correct.
Brian Hartline also said 'we need to bring in a QB'. But the most damaging remarks were from Ricky Williams, when asked what the difference between us a NE is..."they have a QB". He could have said "we have a young QB", or "they have a better coaching staff", or "we're young and need experience", or even "I'm not sure, I'm not a GM". But he didn't say any of that.
It's all good, mate. And yeah, I'm not saying that coaching and play calling was particularly great last season. But stuff like a 51.1 rating (2 TD, 5 INT) when ahead or a 60.5 rating (4 TD, 7 INT) with a tied ballgame really scare the crap out of me. Because even with crappy play calling and bad coaching, that's just abysmal. I wouldn't mind it nearly as much if Henne stank when under pressure and playing from behind, that I could understand with a young quarterback. But when your guy literally digs you in a hole consistently, then you've got a pretty big problem.
