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Putting a value on explosive plays and why Brandon Marshall is a Dolphin

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by rafael, May 11, 2010.

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  1. May 12, 2010 #41
    padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Here is one of the many things that bothers me about your argument Rafi:

    30%, that is advantage that one's claim of the wheel being reinvented is worth to a team trying to make a playoff run, 50% of the top rushing teams made the playoffs 80% of the top passing teams though I'm sure there is overlap as only 10 teams make the playoffs in any given season.

    When the Colts had trouble getting past the Patriots the problem used to be they'd go to Foxboro in the cold wind and snow, their passing game would short circuit, and the Patriots would head to the SB, a team has to be able to run the ball at need to win in the NFL in both the regular season and the playoffs.

    And as the Patriots have discovered, it is more difficult than it appears to assemble a passing game that can menace a defense year in and year out as well as the time it takes to develop players to play in those systems, the Chargers took years to develop Floyd and Jackson and they play in an extraordinarily weak division.
     
  2. May 12, 2010 #42
    MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    The last time the Patriots beat up on the Colts it was in 2005 in the playoffs and the Patriots defensive backs were absolutely mugging the Colts WRs. Bill Polian cried, the league started watching pass interference and the 5 yard contact rules like a hawk. The rest is history.

    That's what some of you are missing. This isn't just a new scheme in the NFL that defenses will eventually figure out. It has much more to do with the league enforcing and enacting rules that handicap the defense and favor the offense. It's about money. The average NFL fan wants passing and big name QBs in the superbowl so the league will constantly be inventing new rules to protect the QB, WRs and make passing easier.
     
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  3. May 12, 2010 #43
    rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's exactly what I was going to say. 2005 was the last big rule change that helped the WRs. But the rule changes have been coming for about 30 years (20+ for sure). That's why it's not a cycle where there is a new defensive scheme to counter an offensive one and visa-versa. There is a new defensive tactic and then the rules eliminate it and maintain or increase the offensive advantage. It's not even b/c the rules favor the offense.
     
  4. May 12, 2010 #44
    rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Do you realize how big 30% is? That's the difference between having a coin flip chance at the playoffs (Wanny years) and making the playoffs the vast majority of the time (Colts, for example). And of course there is overlap. Passing efficiently makes it easier to run, teams with big leads tend to run more, etc. But the point is that passing efficiently is the most necessary component. Obviously, your best chance of making the playoffs occur when you can do everything well. But while that's the goal, in practice its difficult. So teams get by doing some things well and others less well. And the stats show unequivocally that doing certain things well is much more likely to result in a playoff team than others.

    In order:
    Winning the turnover battle (wins about 80% of the time)

    Passing efficiently (YPA is a good measure of that total yards or pass attempts is useless)(wins 70%-75% of the time)

    Stopping the pass (wins about 65%-70% of the time)

    Stopping the run (wins about 50% of the time)

    Running well more yards or more YPC (wins about 50% of the time)

    If you combine those first three (ie. win the TO battle and the YPA battle) you win about 95% of the time. This is a fact, not an opinion.

    It is clear that if winning is your goal, then doing so certain things well is more important than others.
     
  5. May 12, 2010 #45
    the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    things always change
     
  6. May 12, 2010 #46
    GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    The ideal philosophy is to not have a set philosophy. With the personell we had the past few years, we were pigeonholed into the run first philosophy. Henning did call alot of 1st down passes to combat teams who overplayed the run, but with no real threat at WR or TE, it was normally a short to intermediate pass, with no threat of a big play, not enough to force the defense out of their game plan. That wont be the case this year.

    With BM, we now have the ability to create big plays out of the pass game when teams overplay the run, our play action game should be especially effective. We've still gotta go out on the field and prove we can make plays down the field, but assuming that we can do it, we can now dictate to the opposing defense instead of vice versa. Balance is nice, but IMO its the ability to run or pass effectively that matters most. Having an equal number of runs and passes is overrated.
     
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