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PPF Loves Miami's Draft has us listed as AFC's....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dorfdad, Jun 3, 2016.

  1. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    WORST TEAM!!...

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-steelers-own-top-spot-in-first-2016-afc-projections/

    I mean WOW seriously. Ok were not winning the SuperBowl this year but I don't see us finishing 4-12 for Pete's Sake! and I hate our chances this year of getting over .500 with our schedule, but dead last in the AFC. The Browns and Titans above us!

    Ok so on paper we lost some talent, but games are not played on paper! What do you guys think of this ranking? I say we finish about 8-8 this year. I think we lose more in the first half of the season than the second as the team / coaches gel.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, let's not forget this so we can show pff after the season how crazy that prediction is. Dolphins aren't great, but 4-12 is just crazy IMO too.
     
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  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I think that teams 2-4 in the AFC East is a pick'em, based on talent. And seriously, they think that the Browns are better than the Dolphins? Is their methodology purely punching numbers into the computer and not taking the human element into things whatsoever?
     
  4. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

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    I guess it's hard to quantify what Gase will bring to the table. If Gase accomplishes his goal in improving Tannehill's game, the record won't be anywhere near 4-12.
     
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  5. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    There's no possible way we don't make the playoffs this coming season. Just no way in hell. We officially fixed the offensive line with the addition of Tunsil, who by the way is a MAJOR add and pretty much puts us from below average to above average.

    So the offensive line being bad excuse and scapegoating is out the window. Adam Gase is a definite upgrade over Philbin. We have talented receivers and running backs. Our pass rush seems to have gotten better.

    The majority of the issues fans complained about has been addressed. Offensive line, pass rush, linebacker, cornerback.

    So now it's up to Tannehill to be that elite quarterback everyone here says he is and we're on our way to the playoffs, right?

    Hope you all got your season tickets on time, playoffs are guaranteed.
     
  6. Sethdaddy8

    Sethdaddy8 Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes, a team rises. No one saw Carolina being a 2 loss team, when we were pushing them around in pre-season last year. Did PFF rank them a 41.2 or whatever the hell it is they do? Maybe Gase leads the new school of elite coaches. Maybe Tannehill and those offensive weapons dominate. Maybe players step up and become stars on defense. I'm too busy, and have too many years invested, to worry about what happens before they play the games. We didn't fill every hole, but I like a lot of what we did. Let's see. Either way I'll be watching.
     
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  7. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Oh this team is gonna seriously mess with other team's psyche if we win.

    It used to be team's needed to go have a Dawson's Creek moment after we beat them.

    I'm guessing it's just new coach handicap, but yeah, by the end of the year...
     
  8. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I think Gase can be a good head coach in the NFL, but it is going to take a couple of more drafts and the addition of some quality free agents before he leads this team to the playoffs.

    They should be be close by 2018, but right now they still have a bottom 10 defense, IMO. Tannehill remains a huge question mark and if the Dolphins end up with the 6-10 or 5-11 record I think they will. It won't surprise me if Gase decides to look for another QB as his starter once the 2016 is over.
     
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  9. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Two of our OL' were out for periods of time last year, and hobbled at others. You can't just "throw it out" the window unless you have a QB who can excel even with a questionable oline (Big Ben, Wilson, Brady, Manning ... the last two purely on how fast they get rid of the ball).

    The thing about this offseason is, it can work out beautifully (think drastic turnaround like the Saints in 2005 or Falcons in 2008) or fall flat on its face. There are still questions at LB and CB, relying on two players who sucked and/or injured recently. Running back is now a question mark. Not sure how you can skip that.

    Tannehill takes a leap and we're in business.
     
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  10. Makados10

    Makados10 Active Member

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    I can see 4-12. I bought the hype last year after the Carolina scrimmage. If Tunsil works & OL stays healthy, I can see us scratching a WC spot. If typical injuries hit our paper thin roster, we're headed for top 7 draft pick. But at least we'll have 4 receivers on rookie deals! Way to build a roster MT!
     
  11. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    I think it's great that we're flying under the radar this year... seems like a good sign.
     
  12. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Pouncey, Albert, Tunsil. 80% of the league would kill for that much talent. The excuse is out the window for Tannehill, the anointed franchise quarterback.
     
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  13. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe that Tannehill needs to take a leap in terms of his level of play. He's generally been very consistent in what he does, meaning he doesn't have a high percentage of errant throws or even in poor decision-making when he had decent options. The inconsistency in his production tended to come when other parts of the team imploded, ie. the OL failed hard or the play calling gave him no good options. If those two factors were improved then Tannehill's production will improve even if his play level were to remain unchanged. Although, having more flexibility to get out of bad plays will give him a hand in improving the percentage of times he had no good options. I don't know what his ability is in that regard since we haven't seen him do that yet (at least since year 2).
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    so tom brady running more times than ryan is acceptable to you?
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    dj I totally agree with you about Tannehill needing to know when to take off, but Brady isn't running more times than Tannehill. Here are the stats:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

    Brady's "runs" are mostly the QB sneak kind as you can see with his measly YPA of 0.6 to 1.6 in the last 4 years. Tannehill's YPA shows those are mostly real runs, going from 4.3 to 6.0. And it's only technically in 2015 that Brady's "attempts" were higher.
     
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  16. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Agreed... and I think stuff like "Brady runs more than Tannehill" is a good example of people allowing something from a single game, a single play, or some espn highlights to shape or fashion their lasting impression without doing due diligence into the reality. That's not necessarily on DJ, but just people in general.
     
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  17. FinSane

    FinSane Cynical Dolphins Fan

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    Remember last year when that Harvard study had us winning a SB? This article means just about as much.

    Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk
     
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  18. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I think we win 9 games this year. I believe in Gase/Tannehill and that will cover some weaknesses.
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I meant last year Brad, the regression in this dept is alarming and dumb.
     
  20. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    First, discounting sneaks Brady doesn't actually run more so your fact is inaccurate. Second, you have to consider the design of the offense. Under Lazor the design seemed to be very timing based. Those offenses don't tend to lend themselves to much running unless you have a very experienced QB or a QB with lots of freedom. Those factors haven't been in place. I also believe that a QB with more audible freedom and Tannehill's speed should be able to see a natural hole in a defensive scheme and sometimes just take a quick first down and slide. And sure, I would like Tannehill to run more often when the opportunity presents, but that's always going to be a minor part of his game (He may have individual games where it's a big factor, but not overall). If Tannehill has a big leap in production it will be b/c he has better protection and/or better play calling rather than b/c he runs a lot more or b/c his play level increases dramatically.
     
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  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The comparison was just to show you how bad the number is for ryan relative to the skillets.
     
  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    you think he calls his own number on those sneaks?
     
  23. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IIRC Brady has specifically stated as much in the past. Something along the lines of seeing a bubble in the D-line and changing the play to take advantage of it.
     
  24. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO Tannehill has decent straight line speed but isn't a nifty runner. He also throws very well on the run. I would say his skill set is best suited to scrambling out of the pocket to either side and throwing, seeing a 10+ yard opening he can through and slide or having designed keepers where he makes a defense pay for an over aggressive pass rush. That skill set doesn't lend itself to a ton of runs. I do think that having one or two scripted runs early on keeps the D on their heels and helps the whole offense, but it will always be more about keeping the D honest than accumulating a bunch of QB rush yards.
     
  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree here, he is what your describing, but dont let him slide so easy, he can step up and run when the opp presents itself, and there are multiple opps per game where that can happen, the problem is he doesn't realize how important it is to his offenses effectiveness..you do that to a defense a few times game, they think twice about inning the ears back..right now they know exactly where he's gonna be, and he's not doing anything to make them think twice, thats unacceptable..

    I truly believe the quickest way for this qb to ascend and for the team to achieve success the quickest is for him to come out this year and really establish this part of his game, right from the get..
     
  26. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    I get that Tannehill may never be Marino, but everyone keeps saying they are looking for more improvement from the guy. Explain to me how much more can we expect the guys got like 4000 yards the last 3 seasons in a row! Averaging 25 Touchdowns and 12 picks over that same time. I dont think Ryan is the problem honestly. The Line will only help but I think Gase is going to scale Tannehill back some and improve the running game to keep the defense fresh.
     
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  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    You do not think Ryan needs to get better?

    Please elaborate because I can count on one hand how many NFL Qbs are good enough to say they do not need to make a leap.

    If you're saying he is a "good" QB now and just needs surroundings so be it, but the question is good enough for what?

    And saying he doesn't make a lot of bad decisions or errant throws is describing qualities in a QB that is a caretaker....maybe that is what he ends up being but as of now I want to see a top level QB on my team.
     
  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    There's certainly a group of QBs who fall in between the stars and the caretakers, who do well when they're in the right situation. To me, RT17 just needs a few more things to go right to be a solid Tony Romo type for a long time for us.
     
  29. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    For Miami to be a playoff team and SB contender. I'm talking about level of play, not production. Tannehill's level of play is pretty consistent, but the offense most often falters when there are breakdowns elsewhere. Most people don't understand that and just blame the QB. If you point it out they call those excuses. And Tannehill is not good enough to compensate for all of those breakdowns. Actually, most QBs can only compensate for a few mistakes by their team mates. Even Marino couldn't compensate enough to get us a SB win and he was pretty good. So if the breakdowns in other areas were to lessen then Tannehill would most likely provide the same level of consistency and his production would go up. People will claim that Tannehill improved, but in reality it was his team mates and coaching that improved.

    Now obviously every QB needs/wants to get better and should try to improve. My point is that even if Tannehill doesn't make a leap in his actual level of play, but the OL and play calling improve then that would be enough to make the team a playoff team and a SB contender.
     
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  30. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I agree with this for the most part...although SB contender I feel like we need all units to step up their play considerably.
     
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Thats a given. However, if everyone on the OL is healthy, then the passing game is probably the strongest part of the team right now, and the one we should end up complaining the least about. I think that its very likely that most of our losses in 2016 will be due to the other areas of the squad.
     
  32. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Please re-read what I was replying too with my comments.

    And here's to hoping.
     
  33. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Well obviously nothing will matter if our defense is crap.
     
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  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ryan Tannehill is a stationary target thus far in his career, defenses know where he's going to be, and when defenders know where your going to be, and your not doing anything to pose a threat as to where you might move, your giving the defenders a serious advantage..

    dont think thats even debatable, but yet I dont hear any concern in your analysis Rafs.
     
  35. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    It isn't. Most QBs who have long, successful careers do so by learning to play from the pocket the vast majority of the time. Look at the last 10 SBs and check how many rushing yards those winning QBs had. Nine of them had 5 yards or less. The exception was Wilson. He had 26 yards as he was developing but now even he's transitioning to being more of a pocket passer. If Tannehill ends up being the SB winning QB for us we all hope he becomes it will be b/c of his success from the pocket. So sure I would like him to run more b/c it could make his job easier, but in terms of his long term success it's a minor concern.
     
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  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ill just say i think he's on the extreme end of it as far as being stationary..more of a concern for me than you obviously.

    Let me say this though, my one hope is Jay cutler, I heard him say that he's been learning to run and pick up some yardage if he can, this was at the beginning of last year when gase was coaching him...and i did see him do just that in games.
     
  37. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    WTF kind of a stupid statement is this?
     
  38. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Those numbers were elite in 2001. Nowadays, you need those to step in the door. Tannehill probably needs to add about 10 extra TD's per season.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just to post the stats for league average in 2015:
    Cmp%: 63
    Yds: 3,901
    TD: 25.6
    INT: 14.4
    Y/A: 7.3
    TD%: 4.6
    INT%: 2.4
    Passer rating: 88.4

    Tannehill's stats:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

    So Tannehill in his last few years has hovered around average for most measures (more a bit above, some a bit below).

    btw, to contrast, in 2001 average Cmp% was 59, Yds was 3,293, passer rating was 76.6, TD: 20.8 and INT: 17.6
     
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  40. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    So, I guess I was pretty accurate. I'm too lazy to check another site (ESPN only goes as far back as 2002) but if Tannehill's 2014 season (his best) had happened in 2002, he'd be a top 5 NFL QB. In 2014, he was the 14th rated passer. Humans don't adjust to inflation like numbers do so expectations often need time to adjust.
     

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