Pick 5 Free Agent Names to watch

I think Shaun Hill is an obvious pickup as a backup...he will be IMO, the HOTTEST commodity this offseason, I would venture to guess that half the league will offer the #2 QB job to Hill.

 

I was talking of Hill as possibly the hottest backup QB pickup this offseason...a 78 QB rating off the bench is impressive.

If he is your starter, you better be GREAT everywhere else. But as a backup...bring him on.

 

I know they arent FA per se....but......(And I post not so much for Dolphins to trade for, etc; but rather, if another team does, it removes them from possibilities of using draft picks on our targets - potentially.)

Steve Smith’s house hits the market in Carolina


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/17/steve-smiths-house-hits-the-market-in-carolina/

Report: Rex Grossman to start over McNabb

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/17/report-rex-grossman-to-start-over-mcnabb/

 

Jerome Harrison doesn't get much press, but he is definitely an interesting guy. Pair him with Ricky and draft a bigger pounding back in the late rounds or see if Lex can step up after Ricky is gone.

 

You know the underrated aspect in all this is that these positions are not frontline positions. That's fortunate. We haven't had that in a while. These are complimentary positions aside from QB. Regardless, I think Kyle Orton would be a good guy to have and I'm not convinced Denver won't cut him or trade him on a pretty cheap deal. I think he can be a 61% passer here that would perform very well.

Let's see what happens with Lydon Murtha as the year rounds out. He was not responsible for that second quarter sack last week. I'd like to see if he can perform as well as Carey did at the beginning of this year. He'd be the equivalent of being able to acquire Ryan Kalil, by reducing Carey's salary.

 

Jerome Harrison to be sure is an interesting guy. I think a combo:

- Michael Bush
- Jerome Harrison
- 3rd round pick
- maybe a third down back like Leon Washington or Lorenzo Booker

I really don't think Miami should spend any high picks at the position. In fact I don't want them to spend highly in the interior OL either. Jason Spitz and Logan Mankins would do the job well at C and LG respectively.

 

The thing with Orton is if you bring him in, you really need a reason for that. You need to be going with the same kind of system that McDaniels used in Denver or that New England uses. Trent Dilfer talked about something recently which is that in the game against the Jets, the Patriots used 27 different formations and 12 different personnel groupings. I'm sure the Broncos do the same kind of thing. To me, if you're going to run a system like that you need to put a premium on a heady quarterback that can keep a boat load of information straight at any given moment. For Denver, I guess Orton was exactly that guy. And if Miami is going to snag a Bill O'Brien or Josh McDaniels, then Miami needs to consider a guy like Orton and maybe think about drafting a headier QB prospect that might maybe be a little lower on the physical talent totem pole (I think three of my favs, Pat Devlin, Ben Chappell and T.J. Yates all fit the bill).

But if you're not installing a system like that, I think you don't go with a Kyle Orton.

 

I could see that although I'm not sure that Orton wouldn't be capable of running a WCO or an Air Coryell, although the latter is what he'd be a little weaker. Yates is the interesting one considering his excellent accuracy, size, and tools. He's very underrated. Let's see how Palmer does without Owens this Sunday against San Diego. He's nothing incredible, but I still think he's an upgrade over Henne and could at least be a playoff quarterback on a very strong team. Same with McNabb until Miami gets a shot at someone great.

When you brought upon Devlin it worried me a little how he does under a heavy rush and his pocket presence is a bit lacking to some degree. I don't know maybe I just have Henne nerves. It's funny my dad asked me the day Miami drafted Henne, if he really doesn't have physical issues as far as size, arm strength, or level of competition how likely is it teams would have missed it. I blew it off after the quarterbacks that we've seen like Brady, Delhomme, and Orton that have done well regardless, but he had a point. You tend to see these big time guys playing for big programs become top first round picks, not late second round after thoughts. I mean the number of busts quarterbacks in the late first, early second area is unbelievable.

Minnesota late in the 90s used to do something pretty intelligent with their QBs, they'd sign a big armed passer, give him the absolute best players around him, and just waited and waited until they could land Culpepper. I like that idea. I think Miami can produce it's shot at a true franchise passer. It just takes patience and pick accumulation.

How is Murtha doing by the way Padre? I haven't been able to watch him all that often.

 

He's not a free agent, but perhaps we trade to Arizona for Beanie Wells. Wells had a great rookie year, but along with the massive destruction of the Arizona offense this year I could see a Wells-Henne trade benefit both teams as it gives Miami a young, 3rd back to compete.

 

It doesn't show much but what's ..... His PFF grade...

 

I’d like to point out that a lot of Orton’s numbers come in garbage time, thus making him a better fantasy football QB than an NFL QB. Did he play better in Denver than in Chicago? Of course. But that really isn’t saying much, considering how the Bears seem to only get good quarterback play once every lunar eclipse.

 

There has to be some way of alleviating Henne's troubles while ahead in games. If you could have his QB rating behind in games also be his QB rating ahead in games, he'd be on the level of a Flacco or Ryan in QB rating. Perhaps the running game to support him theory would work. Just take the ball out of his hands and run effectively. I think part of his struggles might be that when we get into that conservative mode it's up to him to be conservative and move the ball. Since defenses don't respect the running game nor do they think Miami will be aggressive, they know what's coming. He's over coached, wound up.

Desides you're right on one thing with Orton. He's pretty poor in QB rating when he's 1-8 points behind. That doesn't sit right. Henne has his flaws, but perhaps he can still be fixed. I can't say Carson Palmer is much better than him that's for sure...

I just checked Palmer's stats. He's garbage in meaningful QB time. There's a trend here. Mark Sanchez also struggled when ahead in 2009, but his numbers have balanced this year. It's the over-coddling of a QB. Messing with his ability, his rhythm, and his confidence. Sanchez has been better this year now that the Jets have simply told him, we have a great defense fire away.

I'm so damn pissed at Henning now I want to burn his contract myself.

 

I looked that up and it's definitely true, he did benefit somewhat from garbage time. He was 32 of 51 for 369, 3 TDs and 1 INT during times of the game when the score was far out of reach relative to the amount of time remaining. But, that still leaves him with an 87 QB Rating on the year. Only thing is the offense only scored an average of 19.9 points per game if you adjust out the 5 quarters' worth of garbage time scoring. Something like 234 points of offensive scoring during 47 quarters of non-garbage time, which works out to being a projected 19.9 points per game.

Unfortunately that's still better than the Miami Dolphins and with worse weapons.

Not the biggest fan of Kyle Orton but, we don't have very many choices. If that's who it has to be, because Carson Palmer either isn't made available or goes straight to Seattle without even talking to us, and/or we get no shots at Andrew Luck or Cam Newton...what are we going to do?

 

I know you've said you're not a huge fan, but I still think Kevin Kolb is more of a factor here than we think.

I went back and looked at Kolb's numbers and some highlights I could find online and he was great this year while subbing for Vick. The Atlanta game which he started was just a great performance, even after Desean Jackson was knocked out.

I think if the choice is between giving up a 3rd for Palmer or a 1st for Kolb (and you can't get Luck/Newton) I'd go with Kolb.

Now, I'm sure CK can talk me out of this, but I think the guy is good. He throws a great, accurate deep ball, has some mobility. I don't know, but I'm going to bang this drum until someone convicnes me otherwise.

 

I like Kolb, but I'm not sure you can give up a 1st round pick for him. That's an awful big gamble.

 

No bigger gamble than drafting Newton, Mallett or even Luck.

I have almost as much positive NFL, regular season game film on Kevin Kolb as I do Chad Henne, despite one guy only having about 6 starts compared to 25.

He is better than Chad Henne. I can say that almost unequivically. I'm telling you, go watch highlights of the Eagles v. Falcons game from this eyar. He played the top team in the conference and shredded them AFTER Jackson was knocked out of the game. He was something ridiculous like 23 of 29, 3 TD, 1 INT. Spectacular deep ball. I want to watch the whole game, but I was floored by how good he looked in the highlights.

 

Like I said, I haven't studied him in the NFL. I wasn't that keen on him in college. Maybe you're right.

 

Mallett yes but otherwise I disagree with that statement.

 

Obviously, I am no scout, but the guy has performed very well in albeit limited circumstances.

If you have the time over the next few months, check out the Atlanta game. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

My main point with Kolb is that if the choice is using a 1st round pick on him vs. Mallett/Locker or take Kolb in a heartbeat. And if the choice is Kolb for a 1st or Palmer/Orton for a 3rd I still think I'd go with the younger guy.

 

Well, Newton and Luck may end up being better players but that is a complete projection absed on college tape. Kevin Kolb has performed really well in limited action in the NFL. I know all the caveats about back up QB's, that he might be exposed by more playing time, but I think he's a guy with enough talent that it's worth the risk.

And also keep in mind that if Vick didn't turn into an MVP, Kolb would've retaken that job after his concussion and who knows where the Eagles would be.

 

That Atlanta game btw is the best game he's had in two years. Just a warning but I mean at various points even this year, you could isolate Chad Henne's game in Miami against the Jets or maybe last year's game in Miami against the Jets, or his Oakland game this year, and you'd be CERTAIN the guy is a good starter.

Now let me offer a counterpoint to your argument about the Atlanta game. Go back and watch the Green Bay game from this year, right in Week 1. This is about as bad a game as it gets for Kevin Kolb, and it's pretty damn bad. I've only seen Mark Sanchez, Ray Lucas and John Beck try and turn the ball over this many times in a so few attempts, and Kevin Kolb only played a half before being taken out. He threw no less than five passes put up for grabs for the defense, and also had a fumble on a scramble. I'm not sure how Green Bay didn't manage to come down with any of those opportunities, but that's their demon to wrestle with. I think he had only dropped back 13 times on the day so dangling the ball for the defense 6 times is pretty impressive. They obviously had him figured out, and he couldn't figure them out. He pushed a bad throw into traffic over the middle to Brent Celek up the seam, there were three defenders in the area. He made a bad choice on the sidelines twice to DeSean Jackson, once where Traemon Williams was trying to bait him into the throw and Kolb took the bait, but somehow Traemon didn't come down with it. The other he threw another down the sidelines to I think Jackson who was well covered by Charles Woodson, and he threw the thing with flat trajectory, too far inside, was ruled an interception but in replay they showed that Woodson didn't quite get it without letting it hit the ground a bit. He threw a slant that a man defender very nearly undercut for an interception but settled for a pass breakup instead. He threw to DeSean Jackson about 10-15 yards upfield I think on a dig, and just totally lost Clay Matthews who was dropping back in a zone and had the ball hit him in the chest. Twice he scrambled out of the pocket feeling a little bit of phantom pressure, and on one of them he pulled the ball down and was running with it but Clay Matthews tackled him from behind and he still fumbled it. I don't like that, because he'd felt the pressure and he'd pulled the ball down already, that's not like one of those fumbles where a guy is in the pocket with the ball up trying to find a receiver and a pass rusher knocks the ball free...this was the kind of fumble a ball carrier has where he's running the ball and just allows it to get knocked loose. Then to top it off he has LeSean McCoy open on a little underneath checkdown about 7 yards from where Kolb is, but Kevin drills the thing at 100 mph and of course it pops way up off McCoy's pads and again, not sure how the Packers don't come down with that one either. And you know what concerns me about this game? The stat line at the end says 5 of 10 for 24 yards with no TDs or INTs. Because Green Bay didn't capitalize on a plethora of easy opportunities, he didn't accumulate the interceptions and lost fumbles that would have seriously damaged his full year stat line.

In that particular game I saw a few things I didn't like on the kid. One, bad memory. He let some early miscues and pressure rattle him and from then on he was a deer in headlights until they mercifully took him out. Most everything else during the game, the not reading the defense, the feeling phantom pressure, etc...probably flows off of that. The second thing that concerned me is, low delivery leads to flat trajectory which made that vertical throw attempt look pointless.

It's just one game. But, so too is the Atlanta game. We're talking about a guy that is not a free agent, so yes I think the Eagles are going to be as rapee on this one as they were with A.J. Feeley...which means potentially a 1st round pick in compensation.

 

Also given the concerns about his low delivery, which leads to flat trajectory, it raises my eyebrows a bit that he has a ball batted down at the line 1 out of every 31 attempts the last two seasons...which is actually more often than Chad Henne (who is one of the guys that gets his passes batted down pretty often).

 

Thanks CK.

I was unaware of issues getting the ball batted down.

He also was great this year against SF, terrible against Tennessee. So, I just don't know.

I guess I just don't see the logic of grabbing Kyle Orton for a 3rd round pick when you are still going to be looking for a QB.

 

Ck, how do you feel about Matt Barkley? I know he isn't a QB in the 2011 draft, but I'm curious.

 

So now I'm wathing Kevin Kolb play against Washington and this tendency to be chancy with the ball is getting ridiculous. He's offered the ball up on a silver platter to the defense no less than 8 times in this Washington game as well. And I did NOT count the hail mary to end the game that actually was intercepted.

1. He takes a shotgun snap and the snap was fine but he drops it onto the ground, picks it up and tries to do something stupid with it forcing it out without really looking, throws it into a defensive line's chest and he pops it up but the Skins D couldn't come down with it.

2. He's scrambling to the sideline near the end zone and there's a bunch of bodies flowing with him, and he tries to squeeze a throw into a super tight window to Celek, again he's lucky the defender didn't react well to it.

3. Then he's scrambling again, to his left, and he foregoes an easy checkdown that would have gained yards for one down the field which he stares down and the defenders all flow to the ball and you had about three defenders criss-crossing into the passing lane trying to intercept that ball, somehow none of them come down with it.

4. Then he's scrambling forward for what he hopes to turn into a positive play, he's carrying the ball too loosely and he fumbles again.

5. On a two point conversion attempt, he hitches up and delays his delivery on a ball, the man defender has good coverage and reaches right over easily swats the thing down. The defender could have actually reached over and tried to intercept the thing.

6. He drops back into the pocket, makes his reads, throws the ball straight into a defender's chest over the middle, the DB just dropped it.

7. With less than a minute remaining in the game, trying to drive down the field for the winning TD, after a few squandered opportunities he belts a ball out right where Rocky McIntosh is setting up and following his eyes, just caroms off McIntosh's hands and yet should have been picked off. He should have thrown the ball with touch in that situation, but the concept of touch or an up-and-down throw just looks alien to Kevin Kolb.

8. Also on that final drive he tries to throw one to the sidelines and there's help over top, the over top defender had a good shot at the ball (better than the receiver), but just didn't get his hands out and try for it.

Defense didn't capitalize on any of their opportunities, and so what could have been a second straight DISASTROUS day for him statistically, the kind that torpedo his season long statistics...just don't show up on the stats.

The balls he's completed in the game have all been screens to McCoy, or checkdowns to McCoy or Schmitt, both of whom are really impressing me with their ability to make people miss and gain RAC. I have only seen him sit back and throw timely into the defense from the pocket successfully 5 times...on 35 attempts. That's an accurate, and staggering figure. And what I mean by simply sitting back and throwing into the defense is just to drop back in the pocket, and throw the ball into the defense to a WR or TE running the route tree. That's it. Even a slant will suffice, and at least 3 of the 5 were exactly that, short underneath slants or drags to the WR. It's not that people aren't getting open, they've got camera angles showing these guys open all over the place. And, it's not that his OLs are not blocking well, they are. He's not setting up well in the pocket or helping them protect him. Everything he is doing, and I mean everything, is either off the scramble, an underneath delay check down out of the backfield, a screen, if he does throw into the defense it's usually a pretty poor decision or a poor throw (check out this one he had to a wide open Celek up the seam, they have a good field level camera angle of it that shows just how poorly placed the ball was and wonder of wonders Celek couldn't come down with it, would have been a huge gainer at a critical juncture of the game with less than 1 minute remaining down 5 points).

I've rarely seen so much action going to the backs out of the backfield, including one to Celek who came from a delayed checkdown route out of the backfield. And then there are situational nitpicks, like right away he gets into the game for Vick on 3rd & 16 from the 34 yard line, and he's got to focus on getting 8 to 10 yards because that would increase the odds on the field goal tremendously. Instead he scrambles, risks the sack, checks the ball down to a guy behind the line of scrimmage, risking a loss of yards that way, and the guy managed to get forward about 3 yards to make it a 48 yard FG attempt for Akers. Late in the game, you've got 6 or 5 minutes remaining and you need two scores, he's still throwing everything short and to the inside of the field either to backs out of the backfield or WRs on the slant, and it's costing the team precious time. He's got 1 minute remaining in the game and needs to drive all the way down the field to get a TD to win the game, and he's doing the same thing, throwing over the middle taking the wide open spaces on the short underneath, and wasting valuable time. Yet, the cameras are showing it, he has downfield options WIDE OPEN at times. The poorly placed pass to Celek was a huge missed opportunity. He had DeSean Jackson open for a huge gainer on another opportunity and DeSean would have easily gotten out of bounds to stop the clock too, couldn't find him.

Criticisms of Kevin Kolb

1. Touch. He doesn't have it and he doesn't even try to use it. It's an alien concept to him. It doesn't help that he has such a low delivery that his trajectory comes off flat. But when you're throwing a short pass, you don't have to rifle the thing at 100 mph and I've seen him doing that several times.

2. Batted balls. The low delivery DOES lead to a high percentage of batted balls, and over the course of any given season you're going to expect 1 or 2 inteceptions to come about purely because of the delivery.

3. Field reading. In the Green Bay and Washington games, he did not read the field at all. And I do mean at all. Worse than Chad Henne. Far worse, as a matter of fact.

4. Situational awareness. He lacks conscientious situational awareness to where he knows what his goals need to be on certain plays, certain situations, and what he can and can't afford to do.

5. Fumbling. He scrambles with the ball but holds it way too loosely while doing so. In addition to fumbles that will and should naturally happen in the pocket when you're setting up and a guy off a speed rush manages to reach in just at the right moment, this guy will add some fumbles off the scramble during the season.

6. Pocket management. He seems afraid of the pocket. He sets up on his drop extremely deep a lot of the time, showing that he prefers to put as much distance as he can between himself and the crowded passing lanes, the bodies flying around at him. Because of the deep setup, it's harder for the tackles to do their jobs, and Kolb feels a lot of phantom pressure that could be managed a whole lot better. He scrambles on a pretty inordinate number of his plays, trying to find passing targets off the scramble and sometimes making pretty risky throws, as well as a lot of pointless throws that don't accomplish the aim in the situation.

7. Telegraphing. He telegraphs passes with his eyes, his body orientation and especially a hitch or delay in his throwing motion which I saw no less than 5 times in the two games. This also leads to poor timing on some of his throws, not giving himself an opportunity.

8. Location. His ball placement in general is poor on balls thrown a little bit up the field. His ball location is OK in the 10 to 12 yard range, but deeper than that, and it's an adventure.

Based on these two games, the Green Bay and Washington games, you wouldn't even trade a 5th round pick for the guy. So, how good could the Atlanta game REALLY have been, that suddenly he's worth a 1st round pick? Is it even possible to be worthy of that despite such dramatic inconsistency?

 

I think when that Draft rolls around he's probably going to grade as the best QB prospect in that Draft and that would put him at high likelihood for being drafted top 5.

 

FWIW this morning Mel Kiper was commenting on some of the bowl games , and players in them specifically.

He mentioned right now he sees/feels Cam Newton is a mid first rounder with the potential if he has a dominating championship game to move into the 5 to 10 range.

Certainly not out of reach if Miami has a true conviction on him.

 

IMO Reid is one of the best at developing and putting his QBs in position to succeed and the situation in Miami this past season was one of the worst. Comparing Kolb in a very good situation to Henne in a very poor situation, I don't see any way to rationally conclude that one is better than the other. In fact, if I had to bet on it, I would say that Henne's chances of some day finding success elsewhere are greater than Kolb's.

 

I expect that Newton will shoot up after the combine/pro day. He will most likely put up very impressive physical stats and that always revs up the hype machine. I don't expect him to be in reach of Miami and I'm not sure if I want him to be. I have very mixed feelings about whether he will be a good NFL QB.

 

The surrounding cast on offense is slightly imbalanced isn't it? Players and coaches ...

 

Priority 1, 2 and 3 for the Fins this off season is finding a QB. There is no other priority. Everything else we need can be found late in the draft or through free agency.

If Cam Newton falls to pick #8 or so and we're at #16, you can do business

 

Hill is fine for a back up, or a short term guy that you play while grooming somebody else.

No more on this cheapness when it comes to QB's. Don't bring in Shaun Hill and tell me "problem solved"

that's like peeing on my leg and telling me it's raining. I can tell it's not raining.