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Philosophy of this 2011 Draft ....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by PHINANALYST, Mar 13, 2011.

  1. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    We have 2 PHIN drafts to look at what this regime may or may not try to accomplish this year.

    Over the last 2 years:

    - we needed help in the secondary and we spent 3 draft picks (1, 2 and 5) on CBs and 2 picks (2 X 5s) on Ss ... 3 are starters, all 5 have starter potential.

    - we needed help at LB and we spent 3 draft picks (2, 4 and 7) ... one is a starter, one is coming off injury and the other is no longer on the roster.

    - we needed help at WR and we spent 2 draft picks (3 and 4) ... one is a starter (coming off injury) and the other is no longer on the roster.

    - we needed OL help and we spent 2 draft picks (3 and 6) ... one is a project and the other is no longer on the roster.

    Where does that leave us this year .... what are our areas of need:

    - we need at least 1 RB ... but you can argue how valued RBs are in this regime

    - we need at least 1 WR/STs ... a speedy playmaker that can get downfield and return kicks/punts; don't think our development guys: Moore, Wallace, Foster, Pruitt and Carter can fill that need this year.

    - we need at least 1 OL ... could be more with the uncertain health of Carey and Garner, the contract of Incognito, and the development of Murtha and Jerry. Who knows what Marten, Kopa or Fienga can bring to the table. Biggest question right now today!

    - we might need 1 TE ... this is uncertain to me with Epps, Shuler and Mastrud as developmental players. IF we were to draft a TE, it would have to be for a pass catching, play maker.

    - we could use a FS ... unless Clemons can turn it on or Amaya turns some heads - we could use a top notch FS. I believe Jones is destined for SS and a eventual replacement for Bell.

    - we could use a LB ... but, i would guess that the regime is going to wait and see how Edds fits in. There are a few options with our current group, but is IKE or Moses finally ready to make some noise ?? I see us taking a flier on a real SOLB - like they did with McCoy last year.

    - we seem to pick a STer in the 7th rd with Folsum and Spitler the last 2 years ...

    - last year's uncertainty at NT drove the Odrick pick .... this year, barring contract driven moves the DL is good to go.

    - the picks at CB the last 2 years have really paid off ... we have some real talent in Davis, Smith, Carroll and even Wallace -- no need here.

    This leads me to believe the uncertainty on the OL will drive our 1st 3 picks .... and given the opportunity, we will almost certainly drop down in rd 1 -- maybe even into early rd 2. IF there was FA prior to the draft, that would clearly effect our draft requirements and the board -- but since that doesn't look like a viable option right now today it leads me to the following:

    pick 1 (late rd 1 or early 2): Solder/Camiri or Pouncey to solve RT, G or C position along the line for the long haul.
    pick 2 (rd 2): Watkins/Wisniewski to solve G or C **** IF we take Pouncey, then this becomes a wild card pick
    pick 3 (rd 3): Little/Gates/Paul to solve the speedy WR/ return specialist (Jernigan isn't strong enough for me)
    pick 4 (rd 3): Todman to solve our RB position
    pick 5 (rd 4): either Marecic/Havili or Williams/Cameron to help with FB or TE

    IF we can't trade down in rd 1 ... that changes everything ....

    will have a much better thread in a few more weeks, after more information becomes available (progress on a CBA and to get more insight from Boom and the Draft Winds gang) ....

    this doesn't allow for CPak or Dalton - the only 2 QBs of interest to me in this draft ... but you gotta do what you gotta do .....
     
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  2. Hurricane

    Hurricane Guest

    That new line would be mighty fine paving the way for feature-back Jordan Todman, thus allowing Chad Henne plenty of space to carve up opposing defenses. :shifty:
     
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  3. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I would like this to be a draft heavy on offensive linemen and one speed receiver and one tight end. Try to make things as easy as possible for henne since the season, if its played will hinge on him(unless we draft Mallet)
     
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  4. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    If we can get Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson, or Mark Ingram in the first round, I'd be happy. The first two more so.
     
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  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'm just wondering if we take what Ireland said about Garner <at LG> for face value or if it's a smoke screen. It'd also be nice to know their feelings on Jerry and where he'll play.
     
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  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly and no one "knows" where Richie I will play, or if they believe Sheets can not only come back 100%, but whether or not he can contribute to the team, let alone the Hilliard stuff.

    Ireland has commented on everything from running backs (hard to find those 280 carry workhorses) to defense (I'm not going to ignore what the defense needs) to interior of the Oline (we have some things we need to clean up) to Qb (right now, Chad Henne is our Qb) to trades (Obviously I'd like to recoup that second rd pick).

    INOW, typically IrishSpeak to generate a smokescreen.
     
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  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's what I normally think, too, but in this case I believe some of it. Or is he making excuses for himself in advance in case we don't end up improving said positions? lol.
     
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  8. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    while the FO may try to smoke screen the true status of the OL, no matter how they color it -- it is a clear question mark ... and they have focused the last 2 drafts on clear questions early (CB in '09 and DL in '10). That's why, pending a free fall by a few impact players -- i'm starting to think more and more that T is going to be our pick in late rd 1, with a G/C in rd 2/3. Getting a guy like Camiri settles our T positions for a long time, and a guy like Wisniewski allows Berger to move back to G, or at worst provides some real flexibillity youth and longevity along the OL.
     
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  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    If Berger is a poor run blocking Center, what would make him a better run blocking Guard?
     
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  10. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

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    I wonder if Ireland's draft will be influenced by the need for success of this draft to insure his job? Just thinking that maybe his picks may lean toward players that have a better chance to succeed, rather than players who may be projects or who may take a little longer to develop. Are there 15 players in the first round who could be considered locks or close to a sure thing?
    After the Harbaugh debacle Ireland has to feel a little pressure to make the picks in the early rounds count. This may or may not be but I was just wondering out loud.
     
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  11. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Hypothetical: How about if Robert Quinn slides to #15?
     
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  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Or Bowers?

    Wake and Quinn or Bowers at OLB would be nice.
     
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  13. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I would prefer that more than any other picks TBH. Quinn has a better shot IMO b/c sooner or later Bowers will perform for teams and he'll pick up a little of the ground he's lost.
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    and who sir may I ask is gonna tote the rock Mr. Prez?.
     
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  15. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    Pads, i think G is easier than C .... straight up. His problem at C is getting to the 2d level, something we don't necessarily need from a G. Regardless, it improves our depth should we go that route.
     
  16. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    I believe our Front Office approaches the draft different than any other team out there. I believe we rank each position and then rather than having a "big board" like most teams that just follow their draft boards we designate certain picks to certain positions. I am unsure if this is done before or during the draft though. I also think before the draft our front office determines what positions will be address but more importantly how many of each position we will draft. That being said here is my projection for the draft, one without a trade down and another with a trade down.

    Without trade down:
    1.) OLB (if we stay put it will most likely be because an elite OLB prospect fell to us.)
    3.) QB (if Ckep is there) OL, WR
    4.) OL, HB, TE
    5.) HB
    6.) WR or HB
    7.) DL/LB
    7.) OL/DL

    With trade down:
    1.) OT (there are a lot of good tackles and if we trade down we will be in a prime area to great a stud OT)
    2.) QB, WR, LB
    3.) HB
    4.) TE
    5.) HB
    6.) WR/LB
    7.) DL/OL
    7.) DL/OL

    Biggest thing I think we will see is:
    Waiting until the 3rd to draft a HB.
    Drafting 2 HBs between rounds 3-5 (or possibly 3-6. I don't see us taking a HB early this year based on Irelands track record with HBs and the way this draft looks)
    If we stay put at 15 we will go OLB, If we trade back we will go OT (this is based on the drafts strengths/weaknesses position wise)
    Later rounds will be used on developmental picks on the lines. (these positions are the most likely at finding a diamond in the rough)
    In this draft I see us taking: 2 HBs, 1 TE, 2 OL, 1 QB, and 1 LB.
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Does someone have some inside info that their privy of that has Koa Misi playin inside linebacker?, cause otherwise, I dont see the whole outside linebacker thing in the first for various reasons, most importantly Von Miller ain't droppin, we got a 2nd year 2nd round pick that played well at said position with a body thats gettin bigger, and, I don't see resources being used properly in that scenario, the defense is set except for insidebacker imo......'Offensive philosophy', I wanna stick with that in the first, the 2nd ,the 3rd, 4th, 5th lol..I think Irish has done a nice job on the defense to have this unique oppurtunity.
     
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  18. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Depends on the player. If you feel like a guy is going to be a difference maker, you take him, regardless of what you may already have, IMO.

    I envy the Steelers, they consistently use 1st-2nd round picks on guys who aren't even asked to start, a tell tale sign of how good they are. Trying to plug holes in the draft can lead to reaching, but the Steelers are taking guys like Mendenhall, who sat behind Parker. Mike Walllace (Holmes), Evander Hood (Smith/Kiesel), Lawrence Timmons (Foote), Jason Worilds (Harrison), even Pouncey was slated to be a backup behind Hartwig until they saw how good he was and decided to make a move early.

    Hopefully one day we'll get to that point, where we've got an assembly line going and we're not using our top picks to put out fires.
     
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  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thats a fine philosophy when you have built a complete team, we are not complete, we are one sided because we've already gone above and beyond to build that front 7, at some point you have to move in another direction....Wake and Misi are set at those positions, dline is set...I dont spend high draft picks along the def front 7 when I have an offense that is one of the worst in the league, unless the def player is SO much better than the offensive player on the board I literally have no choice..I really dont see that happening in this draft, after the top 15 players it matches up well..We can find our offensive skill players in this draft if we make a point to do so..

    You might consider that extreme, I would agree, our situation dictates our philosophy..

    We need 2 backs that have different skillsets...

    We need a diverse full back

    We need a good tight end with some speed.

    We need an explosive returner..

    We need some interior lineman..

    We need a receiver with some speed, or Just Greg Little, he'll do.

    Thats an extreme situation that calls for extreme measures,maybe 1 defensive player, the rest, all offense.
     
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  20. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    i tend to agree with DJ .... 'could' we draft DL, LB or CB and put ourselves in a position of trading folks when they become high price contracts - sure, but we aren't at that point yet. with a good draft this year - i think we might be on the fringe next year, but there is just too much uncertainty along the OL between health and development. We absolutely need answers at 2 positions and can't wait til FA or TC to sort through it (we've already tried that by bringing in a slew of Gs, only to keep 1 of them to develop). The CBA and uncertainty will dictate our actions next month.
     
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Depends on what scheme we are running, if the C only has to turn the NT out of the hole then Polite's job will be to crush the ILB.

    AFAIK, RG is supposedly the easiest Oline position to learn and play Quickly, LG one of the toughest, but I suspect they are buying in with Nate Garner for LG, and Rich I at C, making RG the hole..and for me a competition between John Jerry, Ray Feinga and a Draft pick sounds about right.

    Really like Ray Feinga, to me he is easily tough enough to handle RG he also has the size required to handle the position.

    Feinga-Rich I-Garner would average what..6'4 330 pds?
     
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  22. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's how I feel, too. IMO we've drafted on need the past 3 years, and it's cost us talent level. This year we'll be forced to draft for need at least at RB, but outside of that, I'm all for BPA.

    Sooner or later the BPA guy will be on the field, and when he is, he's going to make a bigger impact than the "needs" based player. If virtually every player on the team is a BPA guy, then the overall talent level of the team will be higher <and the depth will be stronger>. Green Bay knows something about this.

    The needs based team lacks better depth, and they lack a greater upside. IMO drafting by need could squeeze you into the playoffs, but over the long run, a BPA philosophy will consistently get you there more often (ala your Pitt reference). And considering player turnover due to FA, if a team practices "needs based drafting", then they'll likely always be average b/c they will constantly be looking to replace the player they lost..... either that or the "need based player" might not be good enough to take you to the next level so you end up prematurely drafting his position again to replace him.
     
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  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'm all for trading our 1st, Starks, Hartline, and Clemons for Carolina's #1 (Patrick Peterson) and Steve Smith.

    This would be great for both sides IMO. We can afford to give up Strarks, and Ron Rivera needs some serious defensive help, especially at Dline and the secondary. Instead of possibly taking Dareus first, they could get a Pro-Bowl DT (Starks) and still have the #15 pick to use elsewhere (maybe a badly needed LT to protect Luck when he arrives in 2012 so he doesn't endure the Stafford treatment). They'd get youth at WR to develop with Luck along with a starter at Safety.

    Odrick replaces Starks (who is a FA in 2 years), and we could re-sign McD. Clemons is dispensable b/c Peterson would take his place. Steve Smith gives our WR corps the balance it desperately needs. Our defense and offense would be immediately improved with the rest of the draft and FA to focus on the ground game, TE, and maybe some WR depth, or an extra pass rusher like Chris Carter.

    IMO the only difference between our defense and that of the Steelers' and Ravens' is us lacking a playmaker in the secondary of a passing league. Peterson becomes our Reed/Polamalu, and I'd sacrifice a 1st rounder, Starks, and Clemons for Ed or Troy in their prime any day of the week.

    We need 4 elite, core guys on our defense who are a mainstay for 8-10 years if we want to be contenders. This would make it easier to maintain confluence and consistency.
    -One pass rusher (Wake and his future heir).
    -One DB (Peterson)
    -One Dlineman cog (Soliai)
    -One ILB to run the show (Dansby and his future heir).

    If we could do this, we could more easily plug the annual holes to keep us consistently competitive. Plus we already know that Ireland has an eye for 3-4 DE talent.
     
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  24. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    Pads, while i don't disagree .... the only thing we know for sure is that Long and Berger are there. We tendered, but haven't actually signed Richie yet (i don't think), haven't seen Garner or Carey play, and don't know where Murtha, Jerry or Ray are right now today. Questions, questions, questions ...... something has to work out -that's for sure, but will it be the way we want it to ....... so, Richie, Berger and Garner 'can' play C .... all of them along with Jerry and Fienga can play G .... maybe even Murtha. So, we can pick 1 early another later ... or 2 early and forget about our line for the next 5-7 years ......

    RB of course, is a huge question .... need to have 3 ....

    the other positions that are even remotely similar is WR beyond Marshall and Bess AND is a speed guy that can potentially fill our STs need ... FS beyond Clemons and TE beyond Fasano -- I'd still throw in ILB, but firmly believe they are hedging their bets with Edds .....

    the CBA and FA really hamper our options ... if this changes - we can quickly address a few of these needs, maybe pick up an additional pick or 2 and resort to BPA ... but i just don't see that happening -- unless somehow the courts turn things in the players favor quickly.
     
  25. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Rich I signed a 3 yr deal, that means Center or RG is nailed down, and Rich said "they haven't told where I'll play" meaning all options are open for the draft.

    Garner will be a G, that I'm certain of, whether he can stay healthy is another matter, that leaves RG and RT depending on Carey's health.

    We have some guys who can handle RG, and Murtha did fairly well at RT.


    Hartine is fine as the #2, and Sheets if healthy can handle ST, besides those guys are not that hard to find if you know you need one, Jones looked good at FA in 2010, #2 Te is an issue, but we already have Shuler and Epps as prospects.

    Add in guys like Pruitt and Wallace and Moore, once again we do have some players we can tryout for the pure speed player, if one recalls we had A Armstrong in camp for 2 yrs, they didn't like his game and he was a down the field beast for the Redskins, so they do have an eye for Wr talent on the cheap.

    Eh, I think much of our problems revolved around health and youth, health on the oline and youth at the reserve Wr and Te positions.
     
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  26. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Not sure why the OL gets talked about this way. As a unit, they were above average IMO. It didnt look that way last year, for several reasons. But lack of talent is far down the list. Arian Foster led the league in rushing w/ an OL nowhere near as good as ours. AP's OL is a joke. Watch the Vikes vs Fins this year, AP did most of his damage on his own. It wasn't great blocking, it was great running. He gets stuffed, he gets stuffed and then the OL gives him a decent crease and its a 15-20 yd gain, 40 if he can make an extra guy miss, 60 if the safety takes a bad angle.

    How many times did R&R get hit in the backfield w/ no chance to do anything? Hardly ever. How many times did they take what should have been a short-medium gain and turn it into a long gain? Press the hole and then bounce to the edge? Nope. Stop on a dime and cut back on an over pursuing defense? Nope. Outrun defensive pursuit angles? Not a chance. Make guys miss in the hole? Nope. When the blocking was good, R&R would get 4-6 yds, great blocking, theyd get 7-9 yds, poor blocking, they'd get nothing. They never created anythig on their own, and any OL will look sup bar in that spot. Ronnie dances in the background b/c he has no vision. Ricky has great vision but he lost his burst and his lateral quickness took a nose dive. Lousaka Polite's blocking fell off a cliff. Berger isn't as good as handling NTs as Grove was, Incognito is not even in Smiley's zip code as a puller. And yet, Henning continued to call Power O over and over. We ran right the vast majority of the time, even though our best run blockers were on the left side. Why pay 11 million for a LT if you're not going to run behind him?

    IMO we don't "need" any new OL. As of today, we could have Long-Garner-Incognito-Jerry-Carey, w/ Berger, McQuistan and Murtha as the top backups. That is a decent unit, not a dominant one, but good enough to support a run game if we have good backs to run behind them. If we want to go all in, we can spend a 1st on Pouncey, or a 3rd on Moffett (sp?), or maybe go after Harvey Dahl from Atlanta. But I feel a lot more comfortable w/ our group of linemen than I do about Hilliard and Sheets as our backs, Fasano as our seam threat, and Hartline as our deep threat.
     
  27. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I agree. Our line isn't bad IMO. We started with a group that, from day one, needed time to gel...... but with all the injuries and so forth was never allowed to happen. I wouldn't mind kicking it over the top with Dahl depending on what's in the cards for Carey (staying outside or not).

    Signing Dahl and drafting Ingram 1st, Little 3rd, and TE Jordan Cameron 4th would do wonders for our offense IMO.
     
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  28. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Problem is, Dahl is a RG, we are having all sorts of problems finding a LG, I believe with signing Richie I we nailed down center, and RG is not as difficult to fill as LG..LG is sort of our new NT or QB, we just have no answers for it.

    Have to wonder how much of that is in Sparano's Oline snobbery?
     
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  29. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    I agree that a great Rb can make a line look good but man, a great line can let a great Rb achieve greatness with maybe an added year from not getting constantly killed by 300 pound defensive lineman.
     
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  30. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    the problem i have is yes, on paper we can line up: Long, Garner, Incognito, Jerry and Carey .... but will Garner and Carey be ready -- will Jerry be ready .... we really do have unanswered questions -- not an issue of talent as you indicate, but talent that we know is field ready - today.

    we can not rely on FA to plug any holes at this point ... a COA for sure, but not the primary one - unless the CBA gets knocked out right quick; and since i doubt anyone even thinks about getting together before 6 APR, i don't see it getting ironed out in enough time to have a reasonable FA period before the draft.

    My question with Hartline is health -- that's it ... but do agree with Todd regarding a true burner. I'm not tracking Wallace as a burner ... Moore does have speed, but not Wallace - not a burner that i recall. And as fast as Sheets is, he just can't stay healthy .... so to me, if he's around -- he's a bonus, not something to count on. Same for our 3 developmental TEs ... what can we count on from them ?? Shuler actually made a few plays last year ... anyone else ??

    Anyone coming off of IR is a question in my book ... to include Odrick ... except Long -- dude is just a stud, plain and simple.
     
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  31. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Pick one up when fa resumes or you could spend a 3rd for the UCONN RB
     
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  32. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    Adam, i too am good with Todman ....
     
  33. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    If we don't end up with a legitimate deep threat reciever to complement Marshall, the whole things a bust. IMHO.
     
  34. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Hope ireland is too
     

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