I'm proud to announce my triumphant (ahem) return to the "Other Sports" thread with my NBA preview... Atlantic 1. Boston - Can't pick against the champs here, not when they return everyone but their 7th man, who New Orleans seriously overpaid. I don't like that Ray Allen seemed to get old in a hurry, nor can I entirely shake the feeling that Paul Pierce is ripe for a letdown, but Kevin Garnett should keep him in line, and Rondo and Perkins keep improving. 2. Philadelphia - I was high on this team when they signed Brand, but Bill Simmons made a great point: they're building their team around the nucleus of the 2003 Clippers. Ouch. 3. Toronto - Jermaine O'Neal has averaged 52 games per year the last four years, has a PER that's in free-fall, and is 30 going on 35, and we're supposed to believe that he's going to carry this team past the Celtics and 76ers? Really? Fun team to watch, but in the end, it's just another first round exit. 4. New York - Plenty of talent, but none of it fits together worth a damn. Too many post-hogging, no defense bigs and too many shoot-first, shoot-some-more, keep-shooting and maybe-later-throw-a-pass-or-two-points. But they have a plan and a real coach for the first time in forever, and that's a start. 5. New Jersey - The only interesting thing about this team will be speculation about where Vince Carter will be traded. Central 1. Detroit - One of the deepest teams in the league. It will be interesting to see if they can parlay Rasheed Wallace's expiring contract into a star player somewhere. As well as the team approach works in the regular season and early rounds of the playoffs, by the conference finals and NBA finals, star players take over. 2. Cleveland - The anti-Pistons; they'll struggle through the regular season and then become a much better team as benches get shorter and they can play LeBron James 48 minutes. The Mo Williams trade was an absolute heist for them and it might be enough to get them over the top if they can trade Wally Szczerbiak's expiring deal for something worthwhile. 3. Indiana - If TJ Ford stays healthy, they should squeak into the playoffs and provide some entertaining basketball (like Ford's old team, ending with a sure first round defeat, of course). If not, they're back to the lottery. 4. Chicago - The Bulls could make it 4 Central teams in the playoffs if they can find some scoring from their bigs. Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon complement each other nicely in the backcourt. 5. Milwaukee - Lousy team without any significant direction. Southeast 1. Orlando - I don't think Turkoglu is going to repeat his performance from last year, but Howard should continue to get better. That bench, though...ugh. It's going to bite them. 2. Miami - If Dwyane Wade stays healthy (and I wouldn't bet heavily on it), they may be able to pass up the Magic. A Wade-Beasley-Marion triumverate should put up points in bunches, though I don't know how they're going to stop any team that can score in the post. Still, they'll be entertaining if nothing else. 3. Washington - They paid $161 million this offseason for the privilege of remaining a 40 win team. Smart fiscal management, that. With Arenas out for half the season, they might not even win 40. 4. Atlanta - Love the starting five, but it's probably the league's worst bench. I think Josh Smith is going to get Mike Woodson fired sooner than later, by the way. 5. Charlotte - They're counting on a perennially out-of-shape, constantly injured power forward to provide their interior scoring. Good luck with that. If everyone stays healthy (especially May), they can compete for a playoff spot, since there are worse nuclei than Okafor-May-Wallace-Richardson-Felton. But I wouldn't count on that happening. West to come shortly...
Derrick Rose is going to be a special player. Had a huge final pre-season game. Dropped 33 including 14 in the fourth to help his team come back from a 25 point deficit if I remember correctly. The Mavs ended up having to double-team him at mid-court. He's been lighting up the practices as well. Really looking forward to watching him play. As much as I like Beasley, if Rose is a starter, he's my favorite for ROY. Nice work by the way.
Agree with you on Philly, disagree on toronto. Youre acting like JON will be asked to carry them when in reality hes going to be a 3rd option. If Kapono, parker and Bargnani knock down open jumpers this team is going to win 53-56 and really challenge Boston. Get ready for the next great PG...Jose Calderon....aka Steve Nash Jr. The knicks will suck, but the days of ball hogging PG's are over. Duhon is starting for that reason. Where Carter will be traded: Cleveland. Sczerbiak is a near perfect salary match and his contract is expiring. I flip Indy and Chicago. I think Indy is good at the 1, 2, and 3 spots but ack anything inside as far as a post presence. Hibbert will be good eventually but the Rose-Hinrich-Gordon backcourt offers more now. TJ Ford will won Comeback player of the year averaging 13-9 dimes. Id flip Miami and Orlando. I think theyre similar teams in that theyre deeply flawed. Miami might be easier to fix. One answer might be on their roster (Chalmers - PG) and the second could possibly be found (a mediocre shot blocking C who can rebound). Orlando on the other hand imo has questions everywhere but Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. Pietrus has never been healthy or played the kind of minutes asked of him. Nelson is maddeningly inconsistent and their PG position may have less immediate answers then Miami's. We still dont know who is playing next to Howard or if Hedo can replicate last year and what his role will be. All in all the east im predicting the following 7 playoff teams in order. Boston Detroit Miami Toronto Philly Cleveland Orlando Chicago/Washington/Atlanta (does it even matter?) Rose is looking to me more and more like Dwayne Wade. Hes explosive, athletic, makes ridiculous acrobat shots..whether hes as clutch and possesses the same leadership qualities and clutch shot making ability remains to be seen. I expect a lot of 20+ point-7 reb-7-ast-3 steals-1 block- 5 TO kind of games. Im excited to see how he will do.
Well, beating phunwin to it, here's my West prediction: Pacific (Level of difficulty : Tough but manageable) 1. Los Angeles Lakers - The young core returns with a playoff run under their belt, and that was without their defensive anchor in the middle. Bynum's return brings the toughness the Lakers lacked in the Finals and he has developed chemistry with Gasol. With Odom acting as 6th man and anchor for the Bench Mob, seriously no lack of talent here. Possibly the deepest team in the league. And let's not forget the stars. As long as 3 out of the Fab Four (Bryant, Odom, Gasol, Bynum) stay healthy, another title run is in store and high 50's to 60's in wins. 2. Phoenix Suns - Porter is a safe pick for coach but will his system work? Phoenix has thrived on the uptempo and no D so this will be a huge change for Amare and Nash. Porter will want to improve the D but Nash and Amare aren't really good at it. The best years may have passed Nash and certainly has passed Shaq. But this still has a talented 5 and the vets will be enough to garnish a playoff berth and 45-55 wins 3. Los Angeles Clippers - Yes, this is my surprise pick. Brand and Maggette are gone. But with just one playoff appearance between the two of them, maybe losing the prima-donnas could be a good thing for Dunleavy's new team-first approach. Certainly can't come off too much talent. Davis is a premier PG when healthy but how will it work with Camby and Kaman. On paper it looks like a nasty front court but two low post guys could have trouble getting jammed in the paint. Else, they have a solid cast and if everything clicks, they could sneak in with the 8th spot with 44 wins. 4. Sacramento Kings - Losing Artest will hurt but they have some fair young talent. SF becomes an issue as to whether Salmons can replace Artest's scoring. Udrih has some potential but is vastly overpaid. The rest of the team is average top to bottom and they may just hover under .500 but they need to bring the energy every game. 5. Golden State Warriors - Huge losses which were replaced by not so compatible talent. A lot of the scrappers that made the team what it was (Davis, Barnes, Mickael Pietrus) are gone. What's left is an amalgam of shoot first selfish SG's/SF's/PF's and one or two hustlers on the boards. Monta Ellis got suspended while guys like Turiaf and Biedrins supply just the hustle. Depth is weak in the frontcourt. Way too many holes. Lottery for them. Northwest (Level of difficulty: Relatively weak) 1. Utah Jazz - Easy pick in the weakest conference in the West. Most of the core returns that took them deep into the playoffs. Like the Lakers, their young crew got a notch in their belt and look to get more. Korver's first full season could really help them get a bump. Very well rounded and sometimes too physical of a team. They'll lose games because of foul trouble and that might keep them from going any further. Still a 50 win team 2. Portland Trail Blazers - Young team has a shot in this weak conference to get some wins. Oden could be out and just can't be trusted to stay healthy but they have good guys like Frye and Aldridge. They look good but really need leaders like Roy to step up. I thought Bayless was overrated as an Arizona *****cat and I still believe that. Thankfully, Blake is decent though inconsistent. The key for this team is consistency because they have ok talent and depth. Good enough for a first round knockout after around 48 wins. 3. Denver Nuggets - A team in total dysfunction though Anthony and Iverson are good enough to win some games on their own. Balkman, the sole main acquisition will chip in but not much. Certainly not enough to escape the huge hole Camby's departure made. They will depend on the chuck and luck to win games but might not be enough this time for the playoffs with sub 42 wins. 4. Minnesota Timberwolves - The Celtics farm team actually has a chance to look ok rather than plain futile. Kevin Love is going to surprise folks (I sell autographed UCLA apparel in case anyone wants some). He's conveyed to me that he thinks they'll have a big year but could just be him talking. Confidence is not lacking in him but honestly, this team is still sub-500. ON paper, this team has some talent. Jefferson's a good stat-stuffer though more fantasy player than actual player. Very young team right now so it will be up to Miller to carry them and he hasn't done a good job in the past. But if something clicks in Foye, Brewer, or McCants they could go far. Till that happens, likely no more than 35 wins. 5. Oklahoma City Thunder - Should've gone with Wind because that's all their shots will hit. Good thing Ok. City is starved for NBA play because there's not much to root for. Durant and Westbrook have some real chemistry but that's about it. Westbrook will have to develop an outside shot as well as passing skills to complement acrobatics and lockdown D if he wants to be the leader in the backcourt. Average elsewhere and little depth = 20-30 wins. Southwest (Level of difficulty: Insanely tough) 1. New Orleans Hornets - Last year's #1 got better in depth with Posey's arrival. Still got a bit to go with depth though. But I've learned never to discount this team. Paul is the leader and one of the best in the league if not the best. Starters are good but who will step up and make plays on his own? Peterson hasn't and neither has gimpy Stojakovic. West and Chandler are hardy players but only one is a scorer. Again this team will be carried on Paul's shoulders and they'll still follow Scott's Princeton offense and hardnosed D. That's good enough for a close 1st place edge and 50+ wins. 2. Houston Rockets - Will Ron Artest be the 1st time prostitute to the 2nd round virgins T-Mac and Yao? They gotta be hungry and Artest provides hardy D plus the 3rd wheel scorer they've sorely lacked. Scola looks to improve after a good rookie campaign. They will need more out of off-on Alston who makes Iverson look like John Stockton. A lot of undersized PF's and little C depth could be their Achilles heel against teams loaded with bigs. And of course, there's the injury issue as it seems Yao and T-Mac injuries are an NBA tradition. Depth could also be an issue overall outside of SF. All things considered, this team will likely get 50 wins but injuries, depth, and whether Artest doesn't blow up will factor with the competition as to if they'll finally reach the semis. 3. San Antonio Spurs - Same team as last year but another year of rust under those legs. Unlike the other teams, while they get more experienced, this team gets older. Lots of tested veterans but you gotta wonder how long it's going to last especially since they all looked to be slowing down last season. But experience is always key and they have enough to fill the Northwest with it. Unfortunately, that and still hardy defense is all they can count on. They'll take a some lumps but come ready in crunch time and be the team no one wants to face. Good for low to mid 50 wins and a nice playoff run. 4. Dallas Mavericks - From a team ready to explode to a team that imploded. Signing Carlisle was smart because he'll install an up-tempo game while keeping a very stingy defense that Johnson instilled. Like the Spurs, they are getting old but at least their depth is better. This team will hinge on their stars to carry them and set the tone. They're still well-rounded enough to garnish 50 wins. 5. Memphis Grizzlies - What can I say? They're the Lakers farm team. The youth movement hasn't looked good in preseason and there's questions as to whether Mayo can be the Man. So far, he's just been all Hype. Good thing Gay can score. But you wonder whether Warrick can man PF. Milicic has been talent but no confidence and you wonder when banger Marc Gasol will emerge. This is a team still finding itself and with few vets to help out. Wonder if the Lakers will continue to dig their hands in the honeypot again. Might not even get past 24 wins.
They're going to be interesting to watch. I read an article a few weeks ago and Nash was talking about the new system implemented in Phoenix. He didn't seem to confident in the change because he's asking them to play more mid-court basketball instead of running up and down and getting shots off in four to six seconds lol. Porter's plan is to play defense but also score a lot. I remember him saying that he hopes they can still put up 105 points per game or around there and on defense, hold the opponent close to 100. I don't know how he figures that but whatever works for him. He also said that he would rest Nash for around 12 games and Nash was upset about that because when asked about it, Nash said " I'm not quite sure we can afford for me to sit 12 games," or something along those lines. Kerr has asked Porter to go inside and out, feeding the ball to Shaq. Regarding Milicic and his confidence, he's a confident player, trust me. However, his problem is work ethic. Knowing the guy, he hates working hard. I know when he was down here in Orlando, I would see him at Bosnian restaurants frequently. He'd come before and after practice, sitting, eating and drinking beer the whole time. Then instead of working on his game after practice, he would just go sleep all day. Its definitely his work ethic that's the problem. As I said in the NBA thread in the past, the guy won't play hard until his final year of his contract, which is what he did in Orlando and got rewarded by Memphis with a 3 year deal, paying him $7 million a year. Also, Mayo can put up points. He can drive as well as shoot the three. That was one of his strong points coming out. The question with him is that if he can stop turning the ball over. I believe he averaged nearly 5 turnovers per game in the pre-season. That's not going to cut it with the big boys in the NBA.
I have my doubts with the Suns personnel but we'll see. Millicic supposedly has been rumored to be having confidence issues offensively. Definitely has work ethic issues but I would've considered him in a possible Laker trade. When I first heard the rumors Lakers were in talks with Memphis, I figured it might be for him considering what pieces we had. Mayo's a turnover machine and I have my doubts as to whether he can stand toe to toe with the game's elites.
Hadn't heard the Milicic rumors but I'd have a hard time believing them. IMO, Mayo will be a good one.
It's possible considering he's been stagnant offensively. Should've stopped drinking the Kwame Kool-Aid. Vince Carter Part II, now with Butterfingers and less Hang Time.
Pretty fair assessment though I disagree in a few areas. LAL is clearly the class of the West in terms of talent thanks to the gift of Pau Memphis wrapped for them last year. For Phoenix Im not sure an identity change is what they needed...they needed to undo that Marion for Shaq deal and find a C who could play within that up and down system. The Clips should be ok with Davis-Gordon-R Davis/Thorton-Kaman and Camby. Their interior shot blocking will make them a team no one wants to face. I dont see any potential issue with Camby and Kaman because Camby isnt a post player...hes best used as a guy who can crash the weakside for easy layups and putbacks. Theyre an intriguing team that in my opinion could easily surpass the Suns IF Gordon provides the necessary points from a SG and doesnt turn out to be strictly a volume shooter. Utah should be interesting. With 8 impending FA's they could easily make a move or two since they clearly need another scorer. Will AK47 be ok with his new bench role or will it be a disruption to team chemistry? I see a lot of questions here and not many answers yet. Has Okur learned to play D? Will Deron's ankle bug him all year? How will Boozer's contract status affect him? Still a 50 win team that will play great D. I agree Portland will finish 2nd but I dont think theyre as primed as everyone thinks. theyre very young, they dont have a natural PG, they havent sorted out their rotation (and it will take time for players to adjust to roles), they dont know what they have in certain players (Oden, fernandez, Bayless, batum) or how players will perform in full time roles (Outlaw). This team might do well to try and swing a deal for a guy like Kirk Hinrich who has solid leadership qualities at a position where they need experience and a talent upgrade. close but not there yet.... And I expect them to get challenged by the Oklahoma City thunder. Yeah, the same team you panned. Kevin Durant is the real deal and I think 2 sidekicks are going to emerge: Jeff Green (last years 5th overall pick) and Russell Westbrook. Both should provide excellent defensive presence and improve on offense as the season progresses. Green in particular showed glimpses of what is to come over the last 8 games last year he saw increased minutes and gave much better production with 16ppg-6rpg and remained a very active defender. They will get the usual blue collar play from Nick Collison as well who will give them a viable post option. I think they could challenge for the 8th seed. The southwest is very jumbled as you pointed out and I think theres a few wildcards there to be pointed out. One is Peja's back. If he goes down that team will struggle mightily to score. They simply dont have a lot of options on offense past Paul, West and peja. Youre relying on a guy who has an injury history that isnt very assuring. They will take a step back in my opinion. A lot of analysts and sports geeks like myself questioned the acquisition of Ron Artest. They said it will blow up the team chemistry and be a bigger disruption then help. My question is what team chemistry and how could he possibly hurt a team that hasnt gotten past the first round in like a decade? Thats a team that needs their chemistry disrupted. Artest will provide the toughness and intensity that T-whack lacks and make Yaosers better for it. They have a solid cast of role players with Battier, Scola and Alston. They might do well to upgrade over Scola at PF and add another rebounder (Randolph?) but theyre damn good as it is. Im not ready to write off Dallas yet. I think they found a good young shooter in Antoine Wright who will compliment Dirks inside game and spell Howard and terry without losing any offense. They have to get Terry his mojo back; when he can get out and run he has explosive speed and creates easy lay-ups. Kidd-Terry-Howard- Bass- Dirk should give them more then enough offense. While interior defense and shot blocking remains questionable at best Kidd and Howard are two excellent on the ball perimeter defenders and along with terry will create a lot of steals. The Spurs are old and they will miss Manu's scoring for about half the year. They badly need a 3rd scoring option to help out an aging Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Im not sold that those two can handle the scoring load alone for 82 games. If they add a 3rd player I elevate them another 2-3 slots because they will be that much better when Ginobli gets back. Mayo and Gay are the cornerstones for a memphis team that is at the very least going to be entertaining. While I dont think Warrick is a PF (hes a SF, a more lanky David Lee tweener, also with no jumper) hes a good player. Ideally hes a 6th man but he will give the effort which Darko may not. What Warrick lacks in skill he makes up for in desire and "want to". Marc Gasol has excellent passing skills for a big and could end up being a similar player during his prime years to Arvydas Sabonis as a Blazer (except not quite as slow). I think Mike Conley will solidify the Pg spot as well leaving 3 positions set (Pg, SG, Sf) and just questions at PF (Darko or Warrick and will either one really become good?) and C (How long will it take Gasol to adapt to the American style of play?). Overall there's significant potential that hasnt learned how to win. Playoff order: LAL Houston Utah Dallas Suns Spurs Clippers Hornets League MVP: Kobe CPOY: TJ Ford DPOY: Ron Artest ROY: Derrick Rose Most Improved: Kevin Durant (will take a huge step to stardom) NBA Finals: LAL over Cleveland
I see that I used the word "carry", and that may have been a poor choice of word. What I meant was that O'Neal's addition isn't enough to put them over the top, not that he's supposed to put the team on his back. The Raps have two excellent players in Bosh and Calderon, O'Neal, who's a wild card in my estimation, two good role players in Humphries and Moon, and a whole bunch of crap. Maybe Bargnani will take a big step forward, and maybe Kapono won't suck this year, but that's a lot of question marks. Too many for me to like them as better than a 6th seed. They've still got Jamal Crawford and Nate Robinson both sure to get 30 minutes or so per game. (And of course, Stephon Marbury is in the background) Duhon is unselfish and plays sound defense, but he's so god-awful in every other way that I really question how long he'll hang onto the starting job. Not a bad thought at all. Carter could be a good fit with James; he's a second banana at heart, and for all the talk about his dunks, Carter is an exceptional jump shooter who would have plenty of open looks with LBJ commanding plenty of attention. I thought long and hard about Indy vs. Chicago, and it could go either way, so I'm not going to quibble with you. If someone could guarantee that Wade will play 75 games, I'd flip Miami and Orlando. But he's played 51 games each of the last two years, and is a 6-4 player who gets pounded like a piece of cheap veal a couple dozen times a night. (As a side note, that's why I loved hearing all the Heaters on our predecessor board howl about how lucky Detroit got when Wade was injured in the 2004-5 Eastern Finals, like this came as some sort of ridiculous stroke of luck.) Yeah, he's pretty healthy now, but he also had a full summer of basketball. Outside of LeBron, he's probably the most important player to his team's success. If Wade plays less than 40 games, the Heat probably go back to the lottery. 40-70, they're probably second to Orlando in the division. More than that, they probably win the division.
The thing I love about the addition of O neal to the Raps is that he wont be relied upon for everything like he was on indy. Toronto is a lot deeper then the Pacers have been the last few years at the 4 and 5 positions which means less pounding on JON. Plus defensively he has always been a dynamic shot blocker and now he will get the opportunity to do more that from the weakside as a help defender. I really think Bargnani is ready to bust loose. His game is suitable to the 3 or 4 spot and he can provide the perimeter presence that compliments JON or Bosh's post games. Kapano I just think had a down year last year as hes always been an outstanding 3 point shooter. From the looks of last night Marbury may not even be part of the rotation as he recorded a DNP last night, maybe the first of many. He cant even get on the floor ahead of the practically useless Mardy Collins (10 mins 2 TO's 1 assist). Say what you will about Nate and Crawford but they are not selfish players. They may or may not be "winning players" but they arent selfish. D'antoni is doing a great job of weeding out the crap. James (inactive), Curry (DNP), Marbury (DNP), better get used to it. Duhon certainly isnt a long term answer but hes a stable answer and provides some leadership at a position the Knicks needed that. If Randolph (20 and 9), Lee (16-11-5 dimes), and Chuckford (29 with a good %) play consistently like they did last night, the Knicks offense will be solid even if their defense is still awful. The thing with wade missing games is undeniable but hes also got more of a supporting cast then hes had in a while. Marion is a solid ironman type who is playing for his next contract and Beasley is a stud who will only get better as the season goes on. I like those two players more then I like Hedo and Rashard Lewis as secondary scorers. I think both of those teams have questions and I think Miami has more answers. We'll find out in a few months who was right
Wow my Bucks are getting ripped, rightly so I guess we do have Luke Ridnour playing the point. We did turn Yi Jinlian into Richard Jefferson somehow, Joe Alexander can't even get off the bench, sick...
Western Preview Northwest 1. Utah - Maybe the favorite in the West; I love how this team is put together. Talent at every position, a couple bona fide star players, plenty of depth and ample matchup flexibility. Ronnie Brewer, CJ Miles and Paul Millsap are guys who could push this team over the top with a step forward from last year. 2. Portland - The early favorite to be the 2012 champs. Putting Bayless at the point isn't as much a problem as Regan suggests, since Brandon Roy does so well distributing from the 2 spot. These guys go with Toronto and Indiana on the "really fun to watch, shame they're out after round 1" list. 3. Denver - The real drama is how long it will be before they trade either Iverson or Anthony. Without Marcus Camby, their defense (respectable last year, even though they took a beating for the number of points allowed) is going to be terrible. They need Kenyon Martin and Nene to return to a reasonable facsimile of their old form to contend. 4. Minnesota - I thought the OJ Mayo for Kevin Love and Mike Miller trade was a masterstroke, and I don’t say that often about Kevin McHale. I like the direction this team’s heading, although they’re going to be atrocious on defense with Al Jefferson and Love in the big man spots. 5. Oklahoma City - Kevin Durant and a whole bunch of guys who probably have no business being on an NBA roster. A good candidate for the league’s worst record. Southwest 1. New Orleans - Best team in the best division in basketball. I worry that their lack of big man depth is going to kill them in the playoffs, though. They should have used their MLE on a third big, instead of overpaying for James Posey’s “playoff experience”. Still, the Chris Paul-David West-Tyson Chandler core is as good as they come, and Peja can still knock down threes to keep defenses honest. 2. Houston - I love the way these guys get after it on defense. They’ve got not one, but two bona fide defensive stoppers in Artest and Battier. If McGrady and Yao stay healthy, they can win it all, but then, we say that every year. Carl Landry and Luis Scola provide excellent depth up front. 3. San Antonio - They’ll have a bad start, with Manu Ginobili out half the year with his ankle, then they’ll turn it on (probably about the time of their annual rodeo road trip) in time for the playoffs. But the window is definitely closing; they’re getting older and don’t have nearly enough young talent. If this is the end of the run, it was a mighty impressive one for Tim Duncan and Co. 4. Dallas - I hated, hated, hated the Jason Kidd trade at the time, and it looks worse now. They’ve steadily worsened the supporting cast around Dirk Nowitzki. They’ll still make the playoffs, but they’re not going anywhere unless Kidd finds a fountain of youth or DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier somehow find some offensive ability, neither of which is likely. 5. Memphis - In the best division in basketball, someone’s got to be the worst. Still, with an OJ Mayo-Rudy Gay-Mike Conley core, and talented youngsters like Javaris Crittenton, Marc Gasol, Kyle Lowry and Hakim Warrick, the future should be bright in Memphis. At least, until they trade one of those guys to the Lakers for a 2015 first round pick, a Kobe Bryant autograph and a rack of basketballs. Pacific 1. LA Lakers - There’s no reason they can’t get back to the Finals and win this time. Kobe is still a top 3 player, Pau Gasol is still a tremendous low post force, and if Andrew Bynum is healthy, they’re in great shape. They’ll probably get around to trading Lamar Odom, but until then, he’s a great sixth man who creates matchup nightmares for the defense. Plenty of depth, too. If they can make the pieces fit, they could go all the way. 2. Phoenix - Few teams have screwed over their fans the way the Suns have the last few years. They consistently sold off their #1 pick to save money, leaving the team all but bereft of young talent. Then, they completely threw the “save money” mantra out the window at the one time it would have helped them, and wrecked what cap flexibility they had with the Shaq trade, which had the added benefit of making them a worse team. Then, to top it off, they chased off one of the best coaches in the NBA and all but ensured that the entertaining, and wildly successful, run-and-gun style of the last few years was gone. What a shame. As for the on-court product, they’re like Dallas: one and done, even if they think that maybe they’ve got another year or two to contend. Maybe if Shaq has another big year left in him, and maybe if Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire both stay healthy, and maybe if Matt Barnes reverts to his 2006-7 play, they can make some noise, but I think the West is too strong for them to make any real noise in the playoffs. 3. Golden State - The question appears to be what they’re going to get for Al Harrington, who badly wants out. A Harrington for Raymond Felton might make sense all around, since the Bobcats need help up front. Anyway, I’m intrigued by Don Nelson’s recent lineup, which has Stephen Jackson at the point, part of a giant lineup, which is funny considering Nellie has been one of the league’s foremost practitioners of smallball. Lots of guys can score points, and if they can get anything at all from the point guard spot, they can squeak into the playoffs. 4. LA Clippers - With Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman up front, the Clips are in good shape down low. And Baron Davis certainly helps them at the point. It’s everywhere else that they have a problem. If Al Thornton and Eric Gordon develop fast, and Camby, Kaman and Davis all stay healthy, they’ve got a shot at sneaking in the playoffs, but that’s just way too many ifs. Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley are decent role players, but if they’re pressed into starting service, it’s a problem. 5. Sacramento - Kevin Martin is the only good player on the roster. They dramatically overpaid for Beno Udrih and Francisco Garcia, after dramatically overpaying Mikki Moore last year. Ugh. John Salmons is okay, and maybe Jason Thompson and Donte Greene will become something, but they’re bad now, and likely to stay that way awhile.
Trading Mo Williams for next to nothing was absolutely unforgivable. Scott Skiles apparently hates Charlie Villanueva, which hurts them even more. A starting five of Bogut-Villanueva-Jefferson-Redd-Williams, with Alexander as the 6th man wouldn't have been bad at all, but they've managed to screw that up.
Bargnani looks like a bust to me. He somehow regressed from his poor rookie season, and he's 23 now. It's not like we're talking about a guy who was a college freshman coming into the draft; this is a guy who had several years in one of the top leagues in Europe. I'm not ready to give up on him just yet, but if he doesn't make The Leap, and soon, Raps fans will have to accept that he's nothing more than a backup big man who can shoot. You said Kapono had a down year last year, but actually, last year was much more in line with the rest of his career; 2006-7 was an UP year. In a related note, 2006-7 was a contract year. Kapono's a great three point shooter, yes, but he doesn't do anything else even passably well. More to the point, Kapono hasn't take enough threes to be valuable. At least half his shots should come from outside. If he does that, he's valuable. If not, he sucks, because the only way he's helping the Raps is by taking threes. No, I don't think Nate Robinson and Jamal Crawford are selfish, but they're definitely shoot-first players. That was my point, not that they're bad guys or bad teammates. I think the Knicks offense will have problems distributing the ball at times. I would take Marion/Beasley over Lewis/Turkoglu, too. (Adding in Chalmers vs. Nelson makes it a closer call, though. Nelson, I think, is better than you give him credit for.) But I'll take 80 games of Howard over 50 of Wade. And to me, that's what the pick comes down to.
