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**Official Falcons Phins Gameday thread***

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dirtylandry, Oct 9, 2017.

  1. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Atlanta Had two weeks to prepare for this one. Julio will be healthier. However, our defense is playing well. I saw pressure, run defense, and LB's flying all over. I also saw Rashad Jones engaged. Could this be the game that Miami's offense flies? I am hoping that whatever was slowing us down can be either resolved, looked at different or thrown away. I hope coaches and players can swallow their pride and make things work. There is still something rotten. Buffalo really tamed this offense two weeks ago, but Atlanta will make adjustments. With the Jets the following week, and revenge a must, if we could just pull this game off!
     
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  2. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    I love that you love threads.

    Seriously, in a low energy season for fans you're helping keep things going.

    You are the Jarvis Landry of the mains.
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ill scout their sites for some news and post here..

    I thought this was a national game but its a 1 banger.

    need Parker to tape it up..need this line to be freed from the coke sniffing moron coach and go hit someone moving people off the ball..enough with this lateral crap, teams have figured it out.

    Timmons is a beast...and makes a very big difference..

    laugh all we want but Rey Mags moves well in the blood zone and also brings a wallop when plugging a hole taking on a lineman and disengaging..misdirection is his weakness though..

    Harris off the turf should look real fast.
     
  4. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    Unless a video of Matt Ryan snorting rails before QB meeting emerges between now and Sunday, I don't see how we even keep this close.
     
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  5. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    Stopping the high school QB didn't excite me this week although take a win anytime. If our defense can clamp down on a top 10 offense like the Falcons I think we can say they are for real!
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well one prediction of mine that's been coming true so far is that Matt Ryan's statistically anomalous year in 2016 (by a massive margin relative to the rest of his career) was just that: an anomaly. Multiple times during the season last year I predicted that this year he'd come back down to his career averages, and that's exactly what's been happening so far.

    So while Vegas right now thinks Atlanta is an 11 point favorite, I think they're still influenced by what they saw last year too much. I think the game will be a lot closer and this won't look like the Matt Ryan-led offense from 2016. Doesn't mean we'll win, but I don't think it's the gimme Vegas is saying it will be.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If Cutler can return to form and this offense can get going, then I don't think there's a team our there that we should be scared of- Atlanta included. Heck, if Moore starts, then I think we win this ballgame....but Moore is obviously not going to start.

    That's the frustrating part though- we have an unbelievably talented roster and our offense has found the end zone once in three weeks. Think about it- Reshad Jones is tied for the season as our leading scorer. Twilight zone.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah.. the two most frustrating things for me so far: 1) Cutler not being at least the average QB he used to be, and 2) Gase's play calling. And both can be fixed. I would have started Moore a few games ago. I mean.. if there's no threat to lose your job, why should Cutler change his "I don't care" attitude? Have to light a fire!

    And damn Gase. I still think he'll end up being a good HC, but he sucks right now as an OC with no good in-game adjustments. Frustrating as you said.. but then again that run defense dude!! How our worst unit got turned around so quickly.. love it!

    And yes the roster is more talented than how it's being used, at least on offense.
     
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  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I remember several games last season where the offense was stalling, then we came out of halftime moving the ball with ease. That's clearly Gase and his assistants doing their job well so I can't understand why that's not happening this season.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That first NE game was the best example of that. The first half was TERRIBLE. First 4 possessions were 3 and out's, next possession Landry fumbles, next possession Tannehill INT, and only on the final possession of the 1st half do we drive down the field for our reward: a FG lol.

    Come 2nd half it's a totally different ballgame. We come out successfully moving the ball only for Ajayi to fumble it. Otherwise, 3 straight drives for a TD, and then last drive we run out of time and end with a Tannehill INT. That was mostly hurry-up offense too, which we never again emphasized for even a full quarter the rest of the season. Still scratching my head over that one.

    In any case, across all games, it's not an adjustment in the 2nd half that stands out with Gase but the inability to start strong and then adjust by the 2nd quarter. Here are the stats for average points scored per quarter in 2016:

    1st quarter: 2.56 points
    2nd quarter: 6.31 points
    3rd quarter: 6.94 points
    4th quarter: 6.31 points

    So Gase showed this tendency to not be well prepared for a game, but then adjust by the 2nd quarter.

    btw.. the stats so far this year (1st Q = 3.25 points, 2nd Q = none, 3rd Q = 2.5 points, 4th Q = 4.5). PATHETIC!! and let's not forget 7 of those points were scored by the defense.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2017
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  11. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Several things...

    For one thing, we had better blocking TEs last season with Gray, Nique Jones, and Sims. Urbik was also better at LG than Davis, and also started one of Ajayi 200 yard days at Center. Thomas is terrible as a blocker. He's shouldn't even be out there until we hit the RZ, where he can be a target.

    Also, Tannehill, for all his limitations in the pocket, is a much better QB than Cutler in most facets of the position and will stand and deliver. He can also remember to which side he should be handing the football off to Ajayi. Teams were forced to respect his ability to hit them beyond 20 yards, or roll out and throw a strike. Cutler hasn't had a pass play over 26 yards since the Chargers game when Parker was taking 50/50 balls away from defenders and on most of his escapes or roll outs, he simply throws the ball away if his read isn't open.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    You know how I like stats.. (understatement I guess). Well, I was curious as to what the probabilities are that a Tannehill-led offense would have won all 4 games, exactly 3 games, exactly 2 games, or just 1 game of the 4 we played.

    Best way I can think of to do this is to look at the distribution of points scored by offenses with Tannehill as the QB, then look at the frequency (probability) with which a Tannehill-led offense put up enough points to win each game we played.

    OK.. so in 46.75% of all of Tannehill's games we scored at least 21 points (needed to beat the Jets and Saints who put up 20), 57.14% of all of Tannehill's games we scored at least 18 points (needed to beat the Chargers), and 87% of Tannehill's games we scored at least 11 points (needed to beat the Titans).

    You can calculate the probability of beating all 4, precisely 3 teams (there are 4 ways you could win exactly 3 times), precisely 2 teams (6 possible ways), etc..

    Looks like the probability a Tannehill-led offense would win all 4 games is 10.87%, the probability we win exactly 3 of 4 is 34.53%, the probability we win exactly 2 is 37.58% and winning only 1 is 15.45% (winning 0 is 1.58%).

    So basically at this point it's more or less 50/50 whether Tannehill would have had 2 wins or 3 wins given what our defense gave up (caveat here: I didn't remove the points scored by defense in the Titans game because Tannehill's stats include points scored by defense.. probability of winning would increase a bit if we did that of course).

    I actually thought it would be a lot higher with Tannehill, but doing this calculation actually makes me feel a bit better: Cutler's played crappy, but the probability of winning hasn't changed that much because our defensive performances were good in the two games we won (the games where you didn't need to score as much).
     
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    To make it apples to apples use games where Jay Ajayi averaged less than 4 ypc. That matters for any QB
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's a good suggestion, but the sample size is just way too small. There are only 10 games so far where Tannehill was the QB and Ajayi averaged less than 4 YPC. So there's just not going to be enough granularity to get good estimates.

    However.. it is interesting to note that Tannehill averaged 20.57 ppg over his career, while the average points per game when Ajayi rushed for less than 4 YPC is 20.3. Of course, that's a bit biased because Ajayi was there 2015-2016 while the best offense by points scored with Tannehill was in 2014 where we had 24.25 ppg. I think your intuition is right but for this comparison the sample size is way too small.
     
  15. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We played today? Damn... I guess I missed it.

    As for Sunday, you know, 6 days from now... Atlanta isnt as "scary" as I thought they'd be this year, but I still think they take it to us unless we can get the offense going. Defense has really shown up for us lately, so that's a plus, but Atlanta is too good all the way around compared to us IMO.
     
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  16. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you can call this a game day thread.
     
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  17. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    No, hadn't noticed at all... :shifty:

    Do you mean all games throughout his career, or all games under Gase?

    And as we're essentially in year 2 of Gase and the offense didn't start clicking last season until game 5, I'd think you'd start there as that makes the most sense to me - picking up where he left off prior to injury.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Had to work with points scored in all games because sample size is way too small if I just take his time with Gase. And if we start from game 6 last year that's only 8 games so as I told Fin-O your intuition may be correct but I can't get the required granularity (error propagation though the calculations is way too great with small sample size).

    However.. to get a general idea of where the calculations might go if the 8 games are truly representative, note that 6 of those 8 games Tannehill had 21 or more points, and one of the other 2 games it was only enough to beat the Titans (and the remaining one game we would have lost to the Titans). That gives you a rough idea of what the most likely result would be if the offense from last year was in place this year: we'd most likely be 3-1.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/gamelog/2016/
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2017
  19. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    That's the thing though. It's like basing a current assessment of Alex Smith based on his time in San Fran instead of the past couple seasons. Completely different scenarios and factors that have to be accounted for and discounted or credited.

    I completely discount the "Joe Phibin" years in regards to Tannehill, given the level of incompetence that affected the entire team.

    That said, the Ryan Tannehill under Gase has us no worse than 3-1 and probably 4-0 right now and I don't see that as an outlandish statement given our defense and the level of play from our opponents thus far.
     
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  20. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    I'll be at this one boys. Hopefully we can put up a decent show in the Falcon's new digs. I've been to this stadium for an Atlanta United game earlier this year and I can tell you this place is LOUD. Our team is going to have issues communicating in this place so they better come prepared to deal with that. My family and I will be tailgating in LOT B if anyone else is going to this one. Phins up!
     
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  21. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    You have to get very physical with Julio. He is very injury-prone. I'm sure his hamstring is still gimpy. Ryan looked lost two weeks ago with him out
     
  22. CRAZYFACE

    CRAZYFACE Active Member

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    Cutler return to form? What form?
     
  23. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed. It makes sense to look at career averages for a guy like Matt Ryan. He has basically been in the same system with similar players (beyond the normal personnel and coach turnover in the league). But with a younger QB like Tannehill who has had so much instability around him, it makes more common sense to look at where he was at to guess as to where he'd be now.

    IMO the big issue with our passing game is timing related. While Cutler has more overall experience and as much experience in this system as Tannehill, the one experience advantage Tannehill had is familiarity with these players. He was more successful hitting those medium depth passes which kept the defense back and provided more space for the run game and screen game to work. The OL is not blocking worse than last year, IMO it's better than the last several years. The difference is that we're not threatening the same areas of the field as successfully so the defense is coming up quicker. That does provide hope that our offense may improve if Cutler and the receivers develop more chemistry. (It would be nice to hear that they were putting in extra time working together). There are other factors in that Tannehill is more accurate and tends to not bail as quickly or throw while falling back in the face of pressure as well.
     
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  24. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, I could have told you that before you went and did all that work. lol

    It's NOT Cutler. Has he played well? Nope. But not one person on offense has played well. No rushing offense. No passing offense. Poor blocking. Dropped passes. Crappy play calling.

    IMO, it all starts with the o-line. I think (maybe I'm just hoping) that the play calling is so bad because Gase doesn't trust the o-line. Now, that's on him. He should have shored up the line. (Pun intended). He decided to roll with what we have and so far it looks like he crapped out. Can it get fixed? Sure. Will it get fixed? Who knows. I do know that Foerster wasn't helping matters. How dedicated and focused can you be at your job when you're snorting drugs in your office?
     
  25. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    As a huge RT fan I would LOVE to agree with you.

    However, I just can't. I doubt any QB would be playing well with this o-line and play calling.
     
  26. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    shoutout to every fin fan who takes ATL in the pts -10 this weekend should be a lock!!!!
     
  27. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So you're suggesting that the o-line is blocking well, but the opposing defenses are playing us differently than last year? I'm no expert, but it just seems that if that were the case either the passing or running offense would be better. I agree that the timing is off, and Cutler isn't as accurate as RT, but he's completed 72%, 60%, 71%, and 46%, respectively, in their first 4 games (That's a 63% average). In comparison, in RT's first 4 games last year he completed, 55%, 71%, 64%, and 60%. (63% average) So, Cutler isn't as inaccurate as some think.

    The WR's are dropping too many passes. Maybe that's due to the unfamiliarity with Cutler?
    None of the WR's are getting separation which makes the QB's job much harder.
    Ajayi is getting hit as soon as he touched the ball. That's o-line.
    Gase's play calling is horrible. However, I believe that it's due to him not trusting people to do their jobs.
    I don't remember one screen play working this year. That's blocking.
     
  28. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I typically don't bet on my teams.

    However, a buddy and I have been betting on NFL and college football for the past 4-5 seasons. This will be the first time I bet on a Dolphins' game. I took the Dolphins +11.5.

    We bet $150-$200 per week. We each pick 6 NFL and 6 College games. You can bet either the O/U or line. The person with the better wining % wins the money.

    So far this season I am 4-0-1. The week we had a push was the week where the Redskins and KC played on Monday night. It all came down to that game. He had the 'Skins +6.5. I'm not sure if anyone here saw that game, but it was AWESOME!

    There was about 2:00 to go in the 4th. Score was tied at 17. KC had the ball and was driving. My buddy is giving me **** because we both know KC is now playing for the FG and thus will not cover. Anyhow, KC kicks the FG with :04 left on the clock. Score is 20-17, KC. Anyhow, KC kicks off and the Redskins try the old hook and lateral play, fumble the ball, a KC players scoops it up and runs it into the endzone for 6 points. Thus, KC wins by 9 and we both ended up 6-6 for the week. haha....
     
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  29. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    hahah that's funny I was on the better end of that kc game, as well as this one against Houston last weekend, ya I went 6 for 6 last weekend I don't see Miami even being within 2 touchdowns in this one, the saints killed us and atl is a way better offense than the saints and coming off a bye at home, but like they say on any given Sunday and usually spreads of 10+ don't ever cover. Specially this one where we have 200 yards of offense in 3 games lol its hard not to think that spread isn't going to keep going up and be pushing 13 by gametime lol
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Let me just throw something out here. I know different observers see different reasons for our failings, but do you guys realize just how pathetic this offense really has been? Your normal "causes" probably don't cut it. That is, something really seriously abnormal is happening here and it's probably useful to see just how abnormal that is.

    We are averaging 10.25 ppg so far. Black line is the historical NFL average ppg and the shaded region represents +- 2 standard deviations, or (approximately) 95% of all teams in that year:
    [​IMG]

    Compared to recent history we are more than 3 standard deviations away from the mean. That's basically saying less than 0.13% of all NFL teams will perform at this level. Stated differently, for a 32 team league you'd have to go 25 years before expecting ONE team to perform this bad! .. over an entire year of course, which hasn't yet happened.

    So keep that pathological level of ineptitude in mind when trying to think of what exactly the problems are. This is NOT your normal "we're just not clicking" offense, nor is it easy to just pin it on one unit because this is REALLY abnormal.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
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  31. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    - The WR's are dropping too many passes. Maybe that's due to the unfamiliarity with Cutler? - Regardless of QB, passes have to be on time and target. I saw 2 drops against the Titans.

    None of the WR's are getting separation which makes the QB's job much harder. - Timing again. They are running routes while he is back pedaling and jumping around, then he's late and throwing ducks off his back foot.

    Ajayi is getting hit as soon as he touched the ball. That's o-line. - That's 8 men in the box along with poor blocking by the new TEs. The OL aren't the only blockers. Jay can't keep the defense honest.

    Gase's play calling is horrible. However, I believe that it's due to him not trusting people to do their jobs. - The OL is struggling, but his QB is making things worse.

    I don't remember one screen play working this year. That's blocking. - Blocking where? Again, it's not all on the 5 OLmen.

    As I said before - Is Jay the only problem? No. Is he magnifying the problems? Yes. While not ALL the bad is Cutler, NONE of the good is Cutler.

    Re-watch that INT play. The blocking wasn't bad. He was looking to run before he even had the ball and then threw a "Smokin' Special" to a guy in blanket coverage. That was ridiculously bad.

    His best play against the Titans IMO, was the 8 yard scramble. That was a positive sign.

    Maybe he'll figure it out this week. Hold your breath. ;-)
     
  32. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thomas, Stills, Landry, and Gray all dropped a pass.
     
  33. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Pretty sure I've read this after each game. I've started trying to track passes that I consider "accurate throws" from Cutler. I mean, I read for years that Tannehill's lack of accuracy was the reason we didn't get more production from our WRs. Now, it seems that the WRs have forgotten how to catch and the OL is worse than what Tannehill had to endure. Weird.

    So, how many drops does that make for each now?

    I saw the ball hit Landry in the hands when he was outstretched for it and called that a drop as I've seen him make that catch easily in the past. I saw Cutler throw an off-balanced duck to Stills that he had to go to the ground and try to catch and called that a drop as he should have had it. The announcer, HOF WR Lofton, talked about the lack of accuracy and velocity from Cutler and how it affected the WRs. I saw the ball thrown low and behind Thomas, who also went to the ground trying to catch it, and I saw a ball thrown at Gray's hip, that was should have been in front of him. Are these the same plays?

    Here's your WR Drop leaders. Stills is credited with 2 on the year.

    - http://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232
     
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  34. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  35. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  36. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  37. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    And is it just me or....

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  39. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but if you base it on the first four games of last season (which would be more of a tit for tat comparison since we started slow both years), we scored 10, 24, 24, and 7. 65 divided by 4 is 16.25 a game, which makes us 1-3. But if you take the actual offensive scores from each match-up, we're 3-1. If you adjust for our defense's improvement over 2016, we're 0-4 (scoring 16.25 a game and giving up 16.75).

    My point is that you can spin those stats a lot of ways to show we're on par, playing great, below average or whatever you want. It's too small of a sample size to determine what Tannehill may or may not do.

    Here's a little bonus though- if Matt Moore started the last four and we play the same game with his only four games last season, we're 4-0 in almost every scenario. Since most of you would agree that RT is better than Moore, it shows that this particular analysis is rather pointless.
     

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