I understand the frustration of not having a QB we can truely believe in but if you look at this team objectively you'll find it is close to being outstanding. I know its painful to think of but if Drew Brees was on this team we would not just be playoff but actually Superbowl contenders. The bottom line is that in 3 years we have taken a roster that was old and devoid of talent and built one that is beyond just solid and very young. This year either one of two things can happen. A young QB matures and leads us to the playoffs or he flops and the talented roster and a high draft pick is handed over to Jeff Fisher or Bill Cower to put us over the top. GO PHINS!
Honestly, the way Ross handled things this year, we won't see a HC with honor or integrity. He'll throw big bucks out there to a famous name that can be bought for the PR splash. God I miss the trash man.
Yes it is painful that four years later we're still searching for the most important position on the team. [Or should I say eleven years later] Four years, Four drafts, four first round picks, three linemen and a cornerback selected. I think that says about all you need to know about how our FO truly values the QB position. I think the lockout is hurting us a little more than some others. We have a team with a lot of raw talent that is in need of some coaching. They've been going months now without being able to get it. I'm with you though. I am excited that this year is going to be a turning point one way or another.
And I think if you look at this team REALLY seriously objectively, you'll see that we are about to be a 5 or 6 win team. The offense is new with a OC that is (by numbers) one of the worst in the NFL. He was thrown out of Cleveland by a legend in the game, Mike Holmgren. I trust Holmgren more on offense than Sparano & Ireland. He has Super Bowl wins, the others have Fist Pumps for Field Goals as their claim to offensive fame. How anyone can be in the least hopeful for this season is beyond me. I see nothing but more heartache for true DolFans.
spot on there... I can't be as optimistic as you are about this season though. Maybe I'm a pessimist but this team's uncanny ability to just flop year after year is starting to rub off on me.
We really have nowhere to go but up for the most part so at least we have that. We should know after this season whether fist pumper is able to adapt and become a better NFL coach.
That would be nice. But you're ignoring the entire middle ground, and the reason I don't think this is wise is the Dolphins have made their home in this middle ground for both of the last 2 years, going 7-9 each year. Yes I do see a strong possibility that the team goes belly-up and then Bill Cowher comes in with a top draft choice in (hopefully) a good QB draft. I don't know if it is THE most likely thing to happen, but it's a highly plausible possibility. Of course, if that happens, your designation that the team is a "talented roster" will almost CERTAINLY be challenged. I can't think of any 5-11 or 4-12 or whatever team that has been accepted by everyone to have a "talented roster". It may be true, I'm not arguing that you're wrong. I'm just saying that if the scenario you outline comes to pass, most people will be arguing that you're wrong, and that could include Bill Cowher or whoever comes in, who may be tempted to "blow up" the roster as is typical for incoming totally new regimes. However, what if the Dolphins do exactly as they've done the last two years? Good team + bad quarterback = 7-9 with no playoffs and a #15/16 overall pick that is just low enough to guarantee we have to trade up if we want a quarterback that is generally accepted to be very talented. Shouldn't that possibility scare us? What's the silver lining in that, highly plausible scenario?
That's an extremely frightening scenario actually. I think I would rather the team be bad again than another 7-9 or an 8-8 type season. Ross will have a hard time pulling the trigger on a regime change if there is a [false] perception around that we're close.
There's another plausible scenario that scares me just as much. What if Chad Henne improves, but still doesn't show any level of potential greatness? Typically your big free agent/veteran acquisitions have their best years the second season after being acquired. Sometimes it's the first year. I find it happens at least as often in the second year. Brandon Marshall is a big time talent and big time acquisition. If he blows up, and Brian Hartline also improves (3rd year typically being key for drafted wide receivers), then along with Davone Bess, they could make Chad Henne's job easy enough for him to get...I imagine maybe like an 85 QB Rating, but lots of yards, some production, etc. You know, an 85 QB Rating isn't really THAT difficult to achieve. It's only mediocre in this league. Jay Fiedler had the same rating the year Ricky Williams blew up like Kanye and ran for ridiculous yardage in 2002. So a player the quality of Brandon Marshall blowing up, not just being real good but being a star, along with a peaking Brian Hartline and a good Davone Bess, I mean it's not a stretch to think a highly imperfect, backup-at-best quarterback could end up with a mediocre 85 or so QB Rating. And if the defense also goes UP in quality, as opposed to what I think they'll do which is stay about in the #10-13 range...then, a little lucky bounce here or there, shoot we're in the playoffs. Then what? Repeat this year, that's what. You'd have tons of people saying no to the idea of trying to get another quarterback, because Henne will have 'proven' himself. And maybe he will have. But it would be just as likely that by 2012 we're seeing the same damn thing from him we've always seen. And so you'd have another fraudulent playoff appearance where we probably get kindly escorted out in the first round, and then a sucky 2012 when circumstances aren't hitting on all cylinders and so Henne reverts, and then we're not really setting about to acquire a quality QB until 2013, where he'll be a rookie, and then we can compete for a championship maybe in 2015 by his 3rd year (if we picked the right guy).
I am not really optimistic about this season but I am from the aspect of building the team. The talent base we have is not that of a six win team it is just that a weakness at the QB position is almost impossible to overcome. That does not mean that there is no hope for the future.
CK I agree that is the worst thing that could happen. That's exactly why I want no part in any of the retread QB's that are out there. None of them gets us a Super Bowl ring. What is the point then. For the record I was with you on Mallett. Why not take a chance on greatness. I would hope that Cowher or whoever came in could recognize that the entire roster does not need to be blow up but your right it is scary possibility. Love your work by the way.
But..but.."it's all not gloom and doom"? Eh, no one knows what to expect this yr Bro, it is much like 2008's preseason only with a better Defense and better talent at Wr and less proven talent at running back, once we added Pennington things gelled maybe we see the same thing this season if a Vet Qb is brought in, or if Henne does develop.
Supposing we go up to the Oakland game, subtract the Pitt INT and three others that could be put on receivers (there's more but I only chose three), without Marshall blowing up as you call it, he had an 86 rating. This is without a running game, receivers having injuries, little TE threat, a declining O-Line by this time in the season (injuries), and the year long specter of Dan Henning. I subtracted the last 5 games and used 11. I did this because at first I was going to use 8, but I said let's add the Baltimore game to be fair. After the Oakland game, we really started sucking as a team. No one can claim to have played well after Oakland. Not counting NYJ because we won. We won because our only Offensive TD came from a good throw to Marshall. The rest of the offense did nothing either, it was also a win. If I counted Detroit, I'd remove the INT's because of the Bess fall and, I believe the Shuler miscue. Buffalo was an 86.9 QBR so I won't include it because it would help me more than you. Cleveland was a piece of **** for Henne. I can admit that. NE as well. I already have 11 to show that everything at that point that could be put on him had him at 86. If you add in the four INT's, he's at 82. That has nothing to do with how the game would have looked if we could run. I frame this all by saying I'm not a fan of QBR anyway. QBR doesn't determine or take into account what happened in the game beyond numbers. Sheer numbers. Just to show why I don't, Manning had games with QBR of: 65 67 69 59 at times last season. He also had two games of 74 and 76 QBR. Manning is better than any of those numbers. One thing I think a team does, is help a guy out. The Vikings lost to the Packers by 4 in week 7. Favre threw 3 INT's, had a rating of 50, and yet the Vikings were never out of that game. Favre only threw 1 TD that game. I just don't buy into this concept that QB's don't need a team around them regardless of skill level.
i think this is what will happen if we suck, i still believe that the defense is to good to let us pick top 1-3 which is were we need to be get that elite QB on our team, the 2 times we sucked, where we picked and saban took over, we had the 2nd overall picked ronnie brown, because alex smith went at #1 thanks god we didnt pick him and the 2nd time we opted for that franchise LT instead of that franchise QB, i dont think we will pick very high anytime soon, so its gotta be henne to step it up or we finally sell the house and give that team who picks first our entire draft and then some, which to me would be absolutely ok, if we could get Mr. Luck
Well, let's assume CK is correct (though I chuckle a bit at his morbidity), and if nothing changes at QB (another concept I mostly reject) we will finish 7-9, then doesn't it make sense to trade that "#15-#17 pick" for a Kyle Orton? Or roll the dice on Vince Young or Marc Bulger? Why would a future mid rd #1 pick be worth an entire season to retain it? With a 50% bust rate why treat that pick like some precious jewel? That is foolishness in imputing so much value into something that statistically speaking, is not worth very much, certainly not worth an entire season.
Exactly, which is a funny thing, some speak as if a "7-9 season mired in mediocrity" is a certainty, well why oppose trading that "#15-#17" pick for a Qb who can disprove that prediction? Someone trying to have it both ways?
Who is there to "blow up" on the roster? The only questions I could see are Clemons, Bell, and Crowder on D, and we may have the same view next year. On O Carey, a 2nd G, and Hartline are on trial this season, regardless of the coach. I can't imagine any coach going through major changes.
I'm glad someone else sees the possibilities (which I think are near certainties), that we remain in the middle of the pack, or maybe slightly lower. There will be some sentiment to give Sparano & Ireland "just one more draft", and by that time you are looking at getting a new QB ready to really compete until at least 2015. By then the defense we all like, will start to becoming old and or free agent eligible. That is why these guys blew it, when they didn't start with a top flight QB, but tried to get away with a mediocre guy and never go all out for that star QB. Long is a great player, the top in his position, but you don't get the chance very often to get a franchise QB and that is the most important player on the team.
And you really think Orton, Young or Bulger is going to get us into the Super Bowl ? Dude, you seem content to get a team to the playoffs. What kind of mentality is that ? You want to build a team that wants to win it all, not just be grateful to get into the playoffs. Henne is not getting us there either by the way. I would be more than shocked if he did.
31 teams do not make the SB, should they all change their Qb? Rivers never made one, SD better dump him, how about Tony Romo should he be dumped? This idea, "that it is SB or bussttt!!!" is one of the more foolish notions I've seen grow on a message board DJ, for starters you have to, you know, make the playoffs, before you can, uhm, make the Super Bowl. Just thought I'd point that out.
Do you really feel Henne is the guy to get you to that playoff level ? I certainly don't. I have been watching football for most of my 51 years. I think I've seen enough QB's play to get a gut feeling about a QB. The guy just doesn't seem to have that "it" factor needed to be a playoff & eventual Super Bowl winner. Marino had that "it" factor, it was Don Shula's fault he never gave the man a defense to help him out. But when Marino came onto the field, when we were behind, I know my pulse would quicken, and I would have the confidence that anything was possible with Danny at the helm. I get the opposite feeling with Henne - I dread him being in the game, with us less than a TD ahead, because I fear his propensity to throw that untimely INT for the TD or long runback that leads to an easy score for the bad guys. I might be wrong, but Henne just doesn't seem like "the man" to me.
Well, all I can say about Henne's play is I do not know if he is a playoff caliber Qb, I thought in 09 he was, in 10 he was not, that is the drawback of a young Qb..they are young, and inconsistent. He does not have all 5 Traits that I look for in "my" kind of Qb, he cannot run to pick up first downs, he is not a natural leader either. He will play injured, he can make all of the throws he should be able to make.
I had to double check the poster to see if it was me. This is EXACTLY the way I feel about our QB situation.
Eh, for me, it is perhaps to soon to tell, this elusive "it" factor generally is only granted to a player when they win football games, I've yet to see any Qb proclaimed as having "it" on a poor team, remove Steve Jackson and look at Bradford, would he have "it"? His numbers are on par with Henne's, yet he supposedly has "it"? I'm not sold on Henne, do think there is a large contingent who acts as if they know the outcome of an entire season already and that to me is the biggest croc of bull**** I've seen in awhile.
Its because we`re "not sold" on Henne either. We dont have a crystal ball we only have Henne`s past performances to try and determine what we can expect from him and where he will lead us. Based on that alone I dont see great things happening this year. I`ve said it countless times, I hope he proves me dead wrong but I have serious doubts. And, I personally wouldnt pin the "it" label on Bradford just yet either.
Doesn't work like that with a young player though RGF, especially not a young Qb, things can change very quickly from one yr to the next, for example Matt Ryan was a far better Qb in yr #3 then yr #2. As for Bradford, could not agree more, put whenever the tired fig leaf of "the Rams won more games because they have a "franchise Qb"!" I sort of cringe a bit, ditto Matt Stafford, people just see what they want to see and believe whatever they wish to believe.
I hear what you`re saying, and I agree , but I just wish Henne showed me something more to make me believe in him. Progress and consistency, to name a few.
Oh, don't misunderstand, I don't "buy into" Henne either, but I haven't tossed him overboard either, what Chad Henne has done is remove my trust in him, as in "I really don't trust Chad Henne to be out starting Qb, could be wrong, but I want a legit Qb brought in" I believe that this team is ready to take the next step up RGF, the young vets who are not named "Chad Henne" have developed to the point an average season from them is actually a pretty good one, I also suspect the Pats and Jest fall back to earth a bit this yr. INOW, if we just had a productive running game we surprise everyone, if Henne or the new Vet Qb play better...who knows how far we can go? THAT is why I've banged the Orton/Young/Grossman drum.
What's unfortunate imo is that the doom and gloom comes from people not being able to separate that timeline when a new regime takes over, and be able to judge them fairly, and according to circumstance. To much heartache from the past affecting one's ability to be accurate with the present.....even some people who know the game very well, fall into this trap. This particular regimes has a winning record during a rebuild {3 years of games}, a rebuild which required them to completely clean house btw...nobody wants to look at that, they just look at back to back 7 and 9 seasons without trying to understand the true evolution that it takes to get to the top from that bottom disgusting position that the prior regime left them.. some folks truly aren't doing that.. The only doom and gloom I have is this coach being able to motivate his players enough at home to overcome the serious problem of how a horribly constructed stadium can be difficult to overcome from an emotional standpoint...My concerns for the football team as constructed, were targeted in the draft, and when free agency starts, I think we will be players somewhat..
Young would be my choice of the three. People point out he`s a bit of a head case but sometimes a change of scenery works out for the better. Wouldnt mind taking that chance.
I wouldn't be against taking a chance on the guy, I also wouldn't be against running a 2 headed QB system..
Glad you were watching for 51 years so you were around to see guys like Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Brad Johnson, Kerry Collins, Eli Manning, Rex Grossman, Steve Grogan, Jim McMahon, Chris Chandler, Neil O'donnel, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Stan Humphries, Phil Simms, Rich Gannon & Ken Anderson reach the Super Bowl. Just sayin.
the franchise, nfl, owners & union conundrum is symptomatic of what is going on throughout the country it has to be resolved within the greater context of a failing economy how soon will they figure it out? to continue pretending will surely result in the collapse of the season & perhaps irreparable damage to the league wake up! look around @ the stock market, unemployment, housing debacle & governmental gridlock in a time when the biggest concern should be for the third rail, they are united only in how to further extort more money from their fanbase. this is not a good thing.
What, pray tell, makes you think the Pats "fall back to Earth" ? The Jets I can understand a bit, they have so many FA's but the Pats, IMO only will be better.
Each one of those guys got to the playoffs, something that Henne hasn't done. And Henne has one of the best defenses in the league.....just sayin.....
Its typical greed. Once you taste the good life, and riches beyond needs, you crave more, and more, and more. You forget your humanity.
You've made it abundantly clear that you think it takes over four years to build a team that is a playoff contender in the NFL. Some of us just happen to disagree. It's not that 'we don't want to look' or whatever. The reason IMO this excuse for Tony Sparano doesn't hold weight is because of how sharply the team is trending downwards after three years. That's not how rebuilding goes. We expected falloff in 2009. We got what we expected. We expected improvement in 2010. What improvement we did get from the defense was largely cancelled out by special teams and offense that continued getting worse and worse. I guess we should blame Cam Cameron for that?
