I'm pretty sure it was year three but that's neither here nor there. That is way above the average. The Dolphins last three seasons average to about 8 wins a season. Average. The team was trending downward, a good offseason can fix that right up. My worry is that there is no offseason right now. Tony Sparano did not do a very good job in 2010. That's all there is to it. No win total from three years ago is going to change that. In 2008 he didn't have to develop his own QB. He was miraculously gifted with an already developed former pro bowl QB at the last minute. Who knows, maybe he'll get a hold of Carson Palmer..
Bro, the purpose of this thread is to analyze from a 1 and 15 position, with relative variables... 8 wins a year is average for the league, not for a team that had the #1 pick 3 seasons ago.
How can you say this team is trending downwards? B/c they lost 3 games to end the season? That's a pretty narrow viewpoint IMO. This team is young and talented, most of our core guys are 27 or under. Our only over 30 contributors are Carey and Bell. Assuming we continue to do a decent job of signing and developing guys, I'd say we're set up be have a good team for many years to come. Just b/c the we don't see the offseason work being detailed in the Herald doesn't mean it's not happening. Marshall appears to be in great shape. Henne is leading practices w/ the offensive guys. The defense has great leaders in Dansby, Bell, Starks, etc, I'm not worried about them. With the exception of a couple role players, we're not losing anyone in FA. We may sign a couple guys, at RB, or LB maybe. But there won't be a slew a new guys coming in. I think the importance of running around in shorts and the negative impact of the lockout are being overblown. If the lockout were to end on the 15th, that'd give us about 8 1/2 weeks to get ready for the season. That's more than enough time IMO.
For example, the Lions took Harrington #3, and Charles Rogers #2, Mike Williams #2, Calvin Johnson #2, Matt Stafford #1, Ndamakung Suh #2. The Rams took Chris Long #2 in 08, then Jason Smith #2, then Bradford #1. Both teams appear to be on the path to respectability. Finally. We took Long at #1 and haven't picked in the top 10 since, and we're on our way to being a perennial playoff contender. This team was rebuilt from the ground up w/o the benefit of multiple top 5 picks. No, that's not cause for a ticker tape parade, but I think DJ is arguing that a little latitude has been earned, certainly more than is being given by the fan base. You'd think we were 2-14, 3-13, 4-12 the last 3 years the way some of our fans sound.
DJ is right. In the 3rd year under JJ, the Boys finished 11-5 and 2nd in the NFCE. Went to the playoffs, won the wild card round, then lost badly to Detroit in the 2nd week of the playoffs. This was 1991. The next two years they went all the way. FWIW, in their first 3 regular seasons under JJ the Boys were 1-15, 7-9 and 11-5. The were 1-1 in the playoffs. So overall W-L wise, the Dolphins in the first 3 yrs under Sparano combined have a better record.
My eyes have told me the Henne stinks, and that Sparano plays scared to lose instead of to win. That combo will doom this regime, and then hopefully Cowher or someone of his ilk will then be brought in to correct the mistakes of the last 4 seasons. There is a reason that Parcells walked away from the Dolphins after just over 2 years, he sees what a lot of us see - his mistakes. He got out before it became too embarrassing for him. His name is not attached to any of last year, and that is not really fair.
Wow, didn't know you worked for California Psychics. I haven't seen anything of the sort so far. You use that hyperbole yet don't show me any proof. Can we see your proof GM ?
Dude, after watching this team in those last 3 home losses and the one in NE, it wasn't kool-aid I was a drinkin'.
I think while arguing that DJ is right, you showed exactly how wrong he is. 1-15, 7-9, 11-5? That is what you call a trend upwards. Hell they even won a playoff game. Do I see us trending downwards? It depends. I think we're treading water. We went 11-5 but against a super easy schedule. But we went 11-5 so that says something. We haven't done anything since. Will this regime build on what we have, or will it create holes where there weren't any, and fill the other holes? We had a good running game, last year we didn't. We had a good o-line, last year we didn't. Our receiving corp looks good, but how is our QB going to play. Our defense was pretty good, will it become dominant or regress. The whole team has not gotten better gradually. We need that rising tide to lift all boats and frankly, I'm not sure Fist Pumper can do it. But as soon as that ball is kicked off I'm sure as hell rooting for it.
Well, when you go from #1 in the division to #3, what do you call that? You have to be drinking or smoking something to call it anything but down!
because every team when starting over has to build that team within that three year period, thats the expectations we should have,build the team..you shouldn't even be worried about playoffs when you have a complete rebuild the magnitude of ours until the 4th year,those three years is to complete the team, you have to give leeway for wins and losses during those three years, your basically saying you either start real bad and work your way up, and that's the only way it goes.. Well,We started off with a bang because we were well coached, and had good QB play, then we leveled off some, reloaded and continued to build the infrastructure, develope the young QB, and never really hit the rock bottom that most teams do, your know darn well JD we should of been 8 and 8 last year.. Basically the 3 year period is inconsequential, we just happen to get 25 wins while doing it.. If folks cant see the upward trend of talent on this team, the youth, and they just disregard everything because the pyramid of wins was not like they should look on paper, then they have to be drinking something too.. We have a very good young defense, we have a nice young strong offensive line, we have a top corner duo, the best pass rusher in the game, and what looks to be, a well balanced receiving group, and some rookies that have some promise at key positions.. To me thats called building a team from scratch, getting the cap in good shape, making sure youth rules, I really could care less about wins during that period, expectations should of been very low because of the condition of the team when inherited.
Yes, but it is documentable but doesn't dispute the point of the thread. DJ stated that that when compared to teams who started in similar states of disrepair this regime got more wins than others. And the description as "regression" is opinion, not fact. I know some people use a very simplistic analysis to measure progression, but I find it more telling to consider more than just wins. I feel the 11-5 record was an anomaly in that it was a very easy schedule and we had above average luck and ver few injuries. IMO the team is better now than it was three years ago. I think we have better talent at key positions with pro bowl talent added at pass rusher and WR. I feel our defense has been rebuilt and is still ascending. Even from last year I feel that Henne played considerably better when he posted a similar rating despite no run support and horrid play calling. One part that I feel has regressed is our running game, but I won't have an opinion on whether it's better or not until I see all the pieces added (in addition to Thomas and Pouncey). If I were to directly attempt to dispute DJ's point, I would say that since the record that first year was largely the product of a weak schedule and luck the win total is exaggerated. But if I were being fair I would also point out that last year we had abnormally poor luck so it may have balanced out a bit.
No it's the average for teams three years after they drafted at number one as well. I put every record since 1990 in another thread showing that. The numbers show that eight wins after three years of rebuilding is every bit as average as it sounds. I'll dig the post up if I have to.
Wow, I don't even know what to say to this. I've been drinking the 'I watched this team collapse almost all of last December and now they have to install a new offense but are locked out and have a huge question mark at quarterback and can't sign any free agents until God knows when' Kool-Aid. A difference of opinion is one thing but this suggestion that everything was looking great is something else. Even the most optimistic around here generally admit there were problems that need to be taken care of, but apparently you have to be on drugs or something to not see how great every thing is... December collapses used to drive Dolfans crazy. Now they're apparently signs of great things to come.
Go up to any group of sports fans, tell them that the Sparanofins are further [or even equally] as far along after three years as Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys, then wait and watch yourself get laughed out of the room. As I said before it's not really important whether the Cowboys won it big in year three or four. They were clearly on their way up as was evidenced by them winning 11 games and a playoff game in their third year. Not collapsing and losing seven games at home. I will watch this season of Dolphins football with hope and yes, optimism. But I don't have to lie to myself about what I've seen up to this point. From a GM perspective I would not argue that the Dolphins haven't done a decent job adding talent. [Except they made the fatal mistake of not prioritizing the QB position right away]. I need to see a lot more from Tony Sparano. Dave Wannstedt and Dick Jauron had a pretty good season apiece with the Chicago Bears once upon a time.
I will never argue that the team has a lot of talent and potential. Right now I just don't believe in Tony Sparano. I need to see more from him. As a coach he was flat out embarrassed in his season finale by a team with nothing to play for. With backups playing for at least a half. It is narrow to just look at a W or an L. But these losses were bad losses. They were losses that should have been wins. I get concerned when our coach can't come up with a winning game plan against the likes of Detroit, Cleveland, and New England's backups with his back against the wall.
I'm not a fan of Tony Sparano either. But he's the coach, and we'll have to ride w/ him this season. I'm not going to blame him for Cleveland and Detroit any more than I credit him for @Green Bay & or @NYJ. The defense took a major step forward w/ new talent and a new coordinator, hopefully the same will happen on offense, and hopefully they're not done adding guys. We'll see. Either way I think it's too early to start marking down wins and losses. I prefer to wait until after I know the results to make my predictions.
If you're a bottom line type of guy, there's nothing wrong w/ that. But I think you're looking at wins and losses while not paying attention to the actual blueprint of the team or how it's coming together.
Obviously the man has had his moments but it was starting to look like he had hit a wall. The league was adjusting to his team [particularly the offense] and he had no answer. I have similar concerns with Chad Henne. Can he adjust? I truly hope they both can. I hope this offensive coordinator is better than he was with the Browns.
