NFL.com mock 3/4/13

That's the second mock I've seen with Werner dropping to our pick.

 

It's an unsurprising reaction to Combine measurables. But I don't think it's actually going to happen. We'll see.

 

Ireland, if you really listen and hear what he says, is much more transparent than many seem to believe. That's why his picks of Pouncey and Tannehill were both really no surprise and predicted ahead of time by most draft analysts. This year he says we need playmakers. I believe him. The #12 pick will be either Patterson, Allen, Eifert or Austin...or a dynamic pass rusher like Werner or Jarvis Jones. IMO.

 

""Guys that disrupt the passer. Guys that disrupt the timing of a receiver in the route," Ireland said. "Guys that catch interceptions. Guys that knock down balls. Guys that score touchdowns. Guys that can pick up chunk yardage. Guys that can run after catch. Guys that can create big plays on their ability alone."
"Whatever position that is, those are playmakers," Ireland continued. "It is not just one position we're looking to address. We're addressing several different positions in free agency, the draft, whatever avenue that's out there.""

 

IF Jake Long walks, I gotta think that LT is at the very top of the list. Honestly, who else on the roster could even come close to playing at such a key position, especially with a 2nd year QB that struggled as much as Tannehill did last year.

Play makers are great to have, but they do you zero good if your new QB is lying on his back.

 

I've heard Warner compared to Kerrigan, I'm not seeing it, tbh would not touch him in the first rd.

Let us look at the factors around Warner: Admitted he took plays off vs lesser opponents, mediocre athlete, from a school that produces sketchy defensive prospects, not seeing "make him the 12th pick in the draft" in there.

Not thrilled with Rhodes either, our D does not highly value Cb's, nor should it.

My gut is thinking this is a weak draft at the top for offensive talent, Ireland loves lineman, would not surprise me at all if we go DT or OT, like Richardson or Johnson.

 

I take Werner > Rhodes, certainly.

My only totally baseless, but intuitive concern with Werner is durability. He looks like the kind of build and style that will fight shoulder injuries.

 

I just hope we don't use our #12, 2a AND 3a to move UP to replace Jake Long.

What a waste that would have been.

 

I agree with that list, but I would also include Rhodes. I like Vacarro as well, but I haven't heard anything that leads me to believe the team feels the same.

 

Would not touch Werner, there is a bit of slight of hand with him.

"..oh he did not have the measurables BUT...."

I'd prefer a player with the metrics, but is raw, over a "magic" player whom you should just trust to get it done.

Not at the #12 pick, we need elite talent not magic

 

So you want that Siberian TCU DE who has all the measurables but doesn't have the ability, then? There's nothing magic to it. It's called technique.

 

I would take Werner if the draft fell like that and call it a great first day.

 

That is a pre free agency guess by me too. Things could look a lot different in early April after most of free agency is done. If we don't resign Clemons, then safety would move up. If we don't sign any veteran corner and or resign SS24 then corner could too. The safety I am liking the most now though is DJ Swearinger. Boik mentioned him, and another friend who's a huge SC fan did too. Both seem to really like him, so I went back and watch some more and he's very impressive. We could get him in the 2nd I think. I also like Eric Reid as much as Vaccaro.

 

Do you see the Werner/Kerrigan comparison as being a good one?

 

Estonian not Siberian. Margus Hunt. The Eastern Block.

 

IMO, when Martin was drafted last year it was as part of a contingency plan for not being able to resign Long. If he does not come back, I think Martin will be the LT and a new RT signed or drafted.

 

I would take it as a good one. I'd use the #12th pick on a guy who could get me 8 sacks a year over his 1st two years.

 

I seriously doubt Jags would pass on Geno.

 

A lot of mocks have the Jags going for a LT like Fisher. I thought Monroe was a pretty good. Not top of the heap, but not a position that needs upgrading ahead of many others.

 

I know. I figure they have Blackmon, Lewis, and Shorts. Production should be 5x better. New coaching there as well. I think they will take Geno if he's there.

 

I like Swearinger as well. I personally would not opt for a CB at #12. I would go the FA and add mid level guys.

IMO Werner is a better player. I wasn't as high on Kerrigan coming out as I am on Werner.

 

If the draft falls this way, I'd expect Ireland to trade back with Dallas, who would take Star, Richardson or Werner for their 4-3 transition.

Then we would take Eifert at 18.

And I would do the nekkid dance.

 

I could see it possibly happening by default thanks to abundance of 3-4, pass-rush needy teams in the top 11.

 

Couldn't the same be said if we let Smith walk? Who else do we have who can play starting CB and try and shut down the other teams #1 wr? I say they address T in FA and draft a CB high.

 

Our D ranked 27th against the pass. We lost to the Cardinals because our DBs could not hold the Cards on a 4th and long. We let Luck break a passing record vs our Defense. Smith will probably leave, and who are we left with? Caroll, Mrshall, Wilson. Neither of which I see shutting down a top WR week in and week out. I say we draft a CB high in the draft, most likely at #12. I wouldn't even be opposed to the idea of trading up for Milliner. We NEED CBs and to say our defense should not value them is crazy talk. What else should we change to fix our struggling pass D? Our Dline? Won't help as much knowing last year we were 8th in sacks already. It's the big plays they create on us, when our DBs leave WRs wide open.

Look at the facts and tell me we don't need more value on our CBs.

 

I agree 100%. Ireland played that one smart.

I'm not opposed to drafting a CB at 12.

 

The myth is that drafting CBs high would change those outcomes. The rules are such that every CB, but maybe Revis gets beat regularly. The team is best served by getting mid level FA CBs like Patterson and putting their high resources on pass rusher and S.

 

This is a stripped down version of what I wrote in another thread:

1. If you're worried about Werner's competition, watch his 2011 game against Lane Johnson (2013 top 10 pick) and Donald Stephenson (3rd rounder in 2012, only gave up 1 sack that year, to Werner). Watch him against Florida's Chaz Green (NFL Draft Scout's #4 sophomore OT in the country). But also watch him against Seantrel Henderson of Miami, whom he got a sack on but was mostly handled in pass pro the rest of the afternoon. Those three games will give you a fine view of how well Werner can/can't produce against quality tackles.

2. Bjoern Werner has the best reaction to the snap of any defensive end in the Draft. I don't even see how this could be objectively questioned. We can argue about its value to a player, we can argue about how good his overall 1st step is or how fast he is getting to the edge to bend the arc, but I don't think his ability to feel the snap and react to it instantaneously should be in question for anyone who is being objective. He does some pretty incredible things with that. I've seen him jump the gun and go off sides, get back to the line in time so that he didn't get flagged for it, have the snap go off while he was still re-setting at the line, and he STILL was the quickest player on the Florida State defense to react to the snap. Again, maybe it's not an important quality to have. Maybe it is. But it's there and it's elite and anyone being objective should be able to agree.

3. Bjoern Werner also is consistently among the very quickest of all DLs in terms of reactions to the quarterback beginning his throw. Again, this should not be in question for anyone willing to be objective. Maybe it's not an important trait to have. Maybe it is. That's up for debate. But objectively everyone should be able to agree that this particular trait is at an elite level for a college defensive end prospect. He anticipates the throw, does his best to try and redirect into the passing lane, consistently gets his hands up and jumps. He's a consistent producer of PBUs. Depending on your source, he had 13 of them in 2011 & 2012 combined, including 8 in 2012 which was second only to William Gholston among DLs. I know one other source had him with 8 PBUs in 2011 as opposed to 5, so that 13 number may even be understated.

4. Bjoern Werner is more efficient a pass rusher, from a pure evidential/numbers standpoint, when rushing from right end as opposed to left end. Again, this is not some subjective observation to be argued and debated endlessly. This is evidence-based. He didn't often get chances to rush the passer over left tackle, but when he did he beat the tackle and pressured/hit/sacked the quarterback more often than he did when rushing the passer over right tackle.

5. I think we can all objectively agree that Bjoern's motor does not run high during plays, and it's been my biggest source of frustration through two years of film view.

 

Perhaps. I am of the opinion that it is much easier to find starting quality CB's than it is starting quality LT. One step further, the most important part of ANY CB's job is the pass rush. I could see us going another pass rusher ahead of CB for this reason.

Martin was hands down my favorite pick last year. I don't care for Tannehill at all. The rest of the draft was very very MEH for me aside from Martin, who I loved in college and think he has lots of upside...however, IF we are counting on him to slide to LT and keep a second year QB upright, we are in for another .500 or worse season IMO, especially since it looks like Reggie Bush will also no longer be in Miami.

 

I think top corners work better though. In the beginning of the season when Smith showed flashes of a top CB he kept receivers like AJ Green to less than 100 yards. Taking away top targets like that is a huge help for the defense, and we will only manage to do that with an elite CB. I wouldn't be opposed to signing CBs in the Free Agency, but I do not see any of them as elite. I find Rhodes and Milliner at that level imo. We have a good pass rushing D line and a good safety in Jones. We need to complete the puzzle with a top shutdown corner.

 

The way I look at it however is moving Martin to LT and signing a top RT. Winston for example who became available today.

I agree, but I believe our pass rush was good last year. We were 8th in sacks, but a lot of yards opponents gained were from blown coverages deep and that is our DBs to blame. They are not very aggressive and easily blew coverages. In the colts game, our best corner Smith had a chance to intercept or block a ball deep to a receiver that was a jump ball. Smith did not jump as high as the receiver and he was behind him. With a good corner plays like that could have been avoided. I really hope we get an elite CB soon because our pass D has struggled the past few seasons.

 

Like Smith, all the CBs go through ups and downs. The top CBs one year aren't the next. Look what happen to Nmandi or Champ. History since the rules have neutered them has shown over and over again that the top CBs don't work better over any extended period. Look at the teams that signed the top CB each year. Compare their pass D ratings from the year before and the year they sign the CB. I did this a while back and could not find a single instance where the pass D got better. People intuitively think that getting the big name CB will make their pass D better, but the research I've done shows it does not. All it does is use up yur cap space. The defensive positions that do have an impact are pass rushers and S. You do see instances of those being signed and the D improving.

 

Doesn't it make sense in a very good way,if your going to let go of a contract the size of Jake Long to replace that contract at a much smaller price with a comparable talent..Fisher..Johnson..or even Watson early 2nd if we let go of Long so he can play the vacant right tackle position.?

 

If Long goes elsewhere, Martin is going to be the LT. So we need to either sign or draft another RT. Eric Winston makes sense to me.

 

Ok I shall give it to you then because I have not done such research. Knowing that S and pass rushers are the top guys in stopping the pass game, what do you feel about drafting a safety at 12? The past few days I have been torn with deciding to draft either Rhodes or Vacarro at 12. We have pass rush as a strength, so we just need top safeties according to what you said. I say we value safeties more this draft than pass rushers.

 

Once again, I am a HUGE Martin guy. I think that in a few years he might be able to make the transition to become a solid LT.
IF they move him this early, I think Tannehill is going to repeatedly pay dearly for it.

 

My 5th OT choice in the draft after the obvious 4, would be Pugh. He has some Levitre to his game, and I'd consider him in the 2nd or 3rd. Levitre does not look the part but he was a very effective LT at Oregon St and has been as well for the Bills when needed to cover for an injured starter.