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New quarterback

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dolphins1372, Nov 27, 2018.

  1. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    There will be a good and deep 2020 class even beyond those 2 barring injury or drastic fall offs. I dont think we need to "Intetionally" suck - just play our game and make smart choices.

    If we dont go hard for someone this year, then loading up on assets is a good maneuver.

    The other thing is that with some big and relatively successful recent QB hauls, need is not quite so huge. We are - this year - really only looking at the Giants (which may still be bullish on Eli) and Jags (lots of money wrapped into Bortles). Despite the lack of depth at QB talent, it may not be a bad year to strike if we really like Jones, Haskins or Murray (assuming the latter 2 declare).
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I know.. just have to get used to it. It's basically a measure of how far above or below you are from average. You don't get that with ranks for example because you don't know that the difference between rank 15 and 16 is the same as between ranks 2 and 3, and you don't get that with just saying how many passer rating points you are above the mean.

    So the z-score is a "normalized" measure of how far above or below the mean you are. You get that by dividing the actual number of passer rating points above or below the mean by the standard deviation. Anyway, it's really useful because you can directly compare across eras. In each case you're just asking how far above or below league average each QB was. Much better than quoting raw passer rating which has increased for everyone over time because of changes in rules or how they're interpreted.
     
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  3. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Excuse my ignorance but how does it account for variation in talent across teams? That seems like the major stumbling block of any rating system to me.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah the basic assumption behind all these stats is that with large enough sample size all those other factors "average out". The smaller the sample size the more likely it is you'll get distortions due to the specific conditions you obtained that stat in.

    The assumption is often valid but isn't always. I think with regards to stuff like weather, crowd noise, even OL (quality usually varies a lot over a QB's career) and talent level at many different positions it's a decent working assumption, but it's pretty hard to argue Brady has had the same variability at coaching as Tannehill has had for example.

    So you just keep that assumption (or qualifier) in mind when reporting the stat.

    Thing is.. it's easy to point out something isn't perfect, but it's often hard to show how to do it better. You'll notice that "experts" often disagree after viewing the same tape, and other "stats" like ESPN's QBR or Football Outsider's DVOA that explicitly try to take any and all kinds of things into account invariably introduce subjective assumptions, like how much of rushing yards are due to the RB vs. OL. etc...

    So yeah passer rating has its flaws, but one thing that isn't going away is its relatively high correlation to win% (0.6321 from 1970-2017) meaning that it's capturing a large proportion of the variation (about 40%, the square of that number) in what matters for winning. And 40% of the variation in win% captured by passer rating is pretty impressive considering it's only an offensive stat.
     
  5. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not totally buying that passer rating is only an offense stats IMO, passer rating is affected by o-line, wr's, situation (meaning that defense and ST's plays a role too), and coaching? So, is it fair to blame or praise the QB alone for passer rating?
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well it's certainly true passer rating is influenced by the defense, but I think it's fair to call it an offensive stat because the components of passer rating are based on what the offense did (comp%, Y/A, TD% and INT%) regardless of the conditions in which they were obtained.

    And saying something is an offensive stat doesn't imply offense = QB. So I'm not sure where that last question came from.
     
  7. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I was just asking the question.

    As you know I use passer rating a lot when talking about QB's. However, I'm starting to think that I may use it too much in regards to QB play because it seems too many things affect the rating that really have nothing to do with the QB.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah there's no really good "pure QB stat". Best alternative to passer rating is NY/A, which doesn't include scores. Its correlation to win% is still very high at 0.6. But really, except for kickers basically everything is a team stat.
     
  9. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, even kickers need a good snap, hold, and blocking...right?
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think the assumption of such factors “averaging out” over time definitely holds for kickers, especially since you can look at FG% as a function of distance. So I’d have no issues calling FG% as a function of distance an individual stat.

    It’s only when you can’t argue things average out that you have to keep in mind there are other factors that might be biasing the stat.
     
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  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  12. Wilkimania

    Wilkimania Active Member

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    Armando's tank for Tua cracks me up. This is a bloke that wrote article after article for years about how this team goes nowhere because we have a losing mentality and is now actively declaring that we should tank a season.
     
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  13. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    An outside perspective on Tannehill and new QB possiblities for the Dolphins - from a Jets fan!

    Take it for what you will (and this was before Gase got fired, it would seem).

     
  14. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Member

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  15. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  16. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LOL @ you thinking I'm comparing being short to being black.

    I was talking about the mind set of the game years ago. The NFL never really gave Flutie a shot because he was short. The same way they never gave black men many shots at being QB. Both lines of thinking are outdated and wrong. Black people can be great QB's and short guys can be great QB's. Hell, Wilson has proven both of those things all by himself. lol
     
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  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    The beauty of football, and the NFL, is that there isn't any one right way to win. There isn't any one way to build and offense or a defense. Its a lot more interesting and fun when different teams have vastly different philosophies about how to make it happen, and when different ones work and fight head to head.

    I don't want to say that trying to win with a short QB who runs around a lot cannot work. It can. But I don't like it, and its not the style of football that I enjoy watching, or want to become the norm in the NFL. That style has greatly contributed to me losing interest in the college game.

    In my perfect world, the Fins would draft a new QB who's 6'3"-6'5", who has excellent field vision both before and after the snap, a really strong arm, and almost never runs the ball unless its wide open to get a first down and then either slides or goes out of bounds.
     
  18. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Don't get me wrong. I don't want a Vick or Jackson. I want a Young or Murray. The former two can run well, but can't throw the ball well. The latter two can run and throw extremely well. Sure, if Murray were 6'3", but everything else about him was the same I think people would be saying he's the best prospect to come out in 50 years. However, I don't think his lack of height will matter much if at all. I still think he's possibly the best prospect since P. Manning.
     
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  19. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    I think that if Murray were taller, then people would be looking at him as a more developed Vick, with seemingly a better mind and much better personality. I don't doubt at all that he would be the #1 pick. But much like with Vick, I still wouldn't have him as my choice.
     
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  20. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Vick sucked and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Murray is a lot smarter and a lot more accurate.
     
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  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Just a Guy Staff Member Club Member

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    Very possibly. But I would still be highly wary of him, or someone like him, as the Miami QB. And as I said, even if he were to succeed, it would almost certainly be a brand of offense that I have no desire to watch, so I lose either way.
     
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