New quarterback

"Galant wrote:

With the #Ravens & #Vikings hanging on for dear life, there’s a very real chance that only 1 of the Top 10 highest average paid QBs make the playoffs in 2018.https://t.co/LYI6iGt56z pic.twitter.com/OZ9QNxMPXj

— Spotrac (@spotrac) December 13, 2018

Going strictly by dollars is not a great measure imo. It's mostly just a list of "QB's who hit free agency in the past two years" rather than a meaningful ranking of talent or ability.

"texanphinatic wrote:

Going strictly by dollars is not a great measure imo. It's mostly just a list of "QB's who hit free agency in the past two years" rather than a meaningful ranking of talent or ability.

I don't totally disagree. However, it may also correlate to having to mortgage the farm to pay for the QB. One example is Green Bay. They are a mess and are lacking talent in a lot of positions, but Rodgers is getting paid and wont take a pay cut to help the team. One of the best QBs in football can't overcome the lack of team talent.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

This is an interesting read...for all of those touting we need a new quarterback

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000938243/article/tom-brady-aaron-rodgers-lead-nfls-top-quarterbacks-for-2018

Quarterbacks on this list include Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

Gee I wonder....will these quarterbacks be in the playoffs, or at home watching them on TV like the rest of us?

I guess it's time for the Packers to DUMP Rodgers...
I guess it's time for the Falcons to DUMP Ryan...
I guess it's time for the Panthers to DUMP Newton...

:smackhead:

"texanphinatic wrote:

Going strictly by dollars is not a great measure imo. It's mostly just a list of "QB's who hit free agency in the past two years" rather than a meaningful ranking of talent or ability.

Absolutely. And yet there are plenty who go on and on about the money.

Money is a poor comparison in almost every way except when you have two QB's paid on the same year. Then you can start to compare the two and wonder about whether anyone overpaid. Outside of that, the money and market changes too much for any meaningful comparison.

Percentage of team cap might be a better evaluation, maybe.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Seriously. I would bet than a good chunk if not majority of passing TD come from a receiver making a play after the catch whether its 5 yards or 50, what constitutes a deserved TD?

Also can we remove some fluke plays that went against us too then?

I know we have broken a few long ones but so have other teams. We didnt invent it.

I mean I didn’t remove a 5 yard slant that the receiver took to the house, I took away one fluke play where 3 different Dolphins touched the ball and two other plays that might as well have been jet sweep handoffs. Off the top of my head I’ve seen Mahomes, Brady, and Goff with a couple of those, you can exclude those plays from the equation, fat chance seeing any one of them drop almost 10 spots in passer rating.

"Drizzy wrote:

I mean I didn’t remove a 5 yard slant that the receiver took to the house, I took away one fluke play where 3 different Dolphins touched the ball and two other plays that might as well have been jet sweep handoffs. Off the top of my head I’ve seen Mahomes, Brady, and Goff with a couple of those, you can exclude those plays from the equation, fat chance seeing any one of them drop almost 10 spots in passer rating.

The problem with this argument is its entirely based off of what you feel and not any sort of formula.

If you did it for every QB Tannehill wouldnt be 15th. No-one knows where he would be actually. I'm going to remove the two INT from the Bengals game if that is the case since they were injury and offensive line related. He's not 15th again.

My point isnt that hes amazing. The point is you can't use stats that way unless you do some insanely in depth analysis on every play like PFF claims to do.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

This is an interesting read...for all of those touting we need a new quarterback

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000938243/article/tom-brady-aaron-rodgers-lead-nfls-top-quarterbacks-for-2018

Quarterbacks on this list include Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

Gee I wonder....will these quarterbacks be in the playoffs, or at home watching them on TV like the rest of us?

I guess it's time for the Packers to DUMP Rodgers...
I guess it's time for the Falcons to DUMP Ryan...
I guess it's time for the Panthers to DUMP Newton...

Those 3 are QBs that have made it to the SB.

"Redwine4all wrote:

Those 3 are QBs that played on teams that have made it to the SB.

Fixed

"Drizzy wrote:

When you know the two flip TDs against Oakland and the Miami Miracle are the sole reason he doesn’t rank 15th?

How on earth can 3 plays be a sole reason?

"M1NDCRlME wrote:

I don't totally disagree. However, it may also correlate to having to mortgage the farm to pay for the QB. One example is Green Bay. They are a mess and are lacking talent in a lot of positions, but Rodgers is getting paid and wont take a pay cut to help the team. One of the best QBs in football can't overcome the lack of team talent.

"Dolphins1372 wrote:

I believe that is why seattle got so good when they did. They paid wilson under 500,000 for his first 4 years. The team was stacked with talent. As soon as he got a big boy contract. The team went downhill. Still good. But not as great as they were with a cheap qb.
So thats part of the reason i want to draft a qb. If you get lucky. And he is good right away. You can afford some serious other talent. Llike depth. Which we need bad.

I follow Green Bay a fair bit as a lot of my family roots for them and I spent a few years there as a kid, so they are kind of my NFC rooting interest hah. Rogers just signed his new deal - prior to that the cap wasn't so bad. GB's problem is that their drafting went to shit about 4-5 years ago, and they mostly refused to supplement. They are just generally bereft of talent, especially on defense. McCarthy also hit a wall coaching-wise about that same 4-5 years ago. Hitting on a young QB definitely gives you a nice window, but you need to develop that player quickly. Wilson and now Mahomes among others are good examples. As for Seattle, they did lose some because of the Wilson contract, but they also had defensive players age out and get hurt, but they are rebounding.

The NFL needs to do something with the cap other than just raise it every year to account for positional value imo.

The way I see it, once you get to the playoffs, you have 3 or maybe 4 must win games. At some point, your QB will need to step up and make plays to win. There may be a game they need to slap down 40 points. There may be a game where the offense only scores once, but they NEED to make tough plays to eke out that score or keep the ball away from the opponent. Some people think THill can be that guy. I don't, and I think until he proves he can or until he is not a Phin, that debate will rage on unchecked and unsolved.

"Drizzy wrote:

:smackhead:

???

"Drizzy wrote:

I mean I didn’t remove a 5 yard slant that the receiver took to the house, I took away one fluke play where 3 different Dolphins touched the ball and two other plays that might as well have been jet sweep handoffs. Off the top of my head I’ve seen Mahomes, Brady, and Goff with a couple of those, you can exclude those plays from the equation, fat chance seeing any one of them drop almost 10 spots in passer rating.

In the same week as the Miami Miracle we saw Dak Prescott have what should have been an interception tipped and amazingly caught by Amari Cooper and turned into a TD. That counts and a positive for Dak. We saw Big Ben get credited with a lot of yards on the Steeler’s Hook and Lateral that should have srt up the game tying FG. The same thing applies to every QB, they all benefit at some point from amazing plays by the receiver or blocker. They all suffer penalties from amazing plays from defenders or horrible drops. They all benefit/get penalized by the way the stats are recorded.

The point is that in big enough samples those random big pluses and minuses even out across the QB population.

"danmarino wrote:

Fixed

Yes, thanks, Marino. It's not like Cam or Ryan were the MVP or anything. Oh, wait, never mind. Yeah, they actually were, ...but hey, dont let that stop you from being a ......

"Redwine4all wrote:

Yes, thanks, Marino. It's not like Cam or Ryan were the MVP or anything. Oh, wait, never mind. Yeah, they actually were, ...but hey, dont let that stop you from being a ......

Yeah, it's not like Marino, or many other players who didn't make it to or win a SB, were ever MVP's...but hey, that doesn't stop people from totally misunderstanding the game of football and spewing their ignorance all over for the world to see.

I mean, I'm sure you can give me many examples of a football team comprised of solely ONE player, a QB of course, who made it to the Super Bowl. I'm also CERTAIN that in your boundless knowledge of the game of football you can show me where the teams that Rodgers, Cam, and Ryan played on, during those Super Bowl runs, were crappy.

One more thing...how are those 3 "MVP's" teams doing right now? Huh?

Ryan has a 108 passer rating: Falcons are 4-9

Cam has a 97 passer rating: Panthers are 6-7

Rodgers has a 100 passer rating: Packers are 5-7-1

They must suck...lol

And now we've come full circle. Why? Because "Those QB's made the Super Bowl" is a weak, deluded, and lazy argument when talking about individual performance or team success.

"danmarino wrote:

Yeah, it's not like Marino, or many other players who didn't make it to or win a SB, were ever MVP's...but hey, that doesn't stop people from totally misunderstanding the game of football and spewing their ignorance all over for the world to see.

I mean, I'm sure you can give me many examples of a football team comprised of solely ONE player, a QB of course, who made it to the Super Bowl. I'm also CERTAIN that in your boundless knowledge of the game of football you can show me where the teams that Rodgers, Cam, and Ryan played on, during those Super Bowl runs, were crappy.

One more thing...how are those 3 "MVP's" teams doing right now? Huh?

Ryan has a 108 passer rating: Falcons are 4-9

Cam has a 97 passer rating: Panthers are 6-7

Rodgers has a 100 passer rating: Packers are 5-7-1

They must suck...lol

And now we've come full circle. Why? Because "Those QB's made the Super Bowl" is a weak, deluded, and lazy argument when talking about individual performance or team success.

For example, IMO, look at the Eagles. A big reason they won the Super Bowl last year was their locker room was tight, everybody bought in and gave it their all, and they played like a team on the field. When their starting QB got hurt, they rallied around the backup and picked up the slack. Although not an easy feat - finding good team chemistry is a bitch - it's a great example for the rest of us on what is needed to get to the big show - in my humble opinion.

Just saw a ticker tape on NFL network saying RT leads all QB in TD's (8) since his return from his shoulder injury in Week 12.

"Dolphins1372 wrote:

So say tannehill kicks but in 2019. The rookie looks amazing. We could then trade tannehill? And draft another in 2020. Both rookies would be cheap for a few years. We could stack the team with talent. Then maybe with some luck. We could have a rivers and brees problem. And have to trade one eventually when they need a bigger contract. I am always looking ahead when i feel we don’t have a super bowl winning team.

I think its hard to find a scenario where Tannehill looks that good and you trade him because a rookie you likely drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round looks great in practice
Mainly because if Tannehill is playing that well the rookie wont see the field.

Remember Brees wasn't the Brees we know today when he left the Chargers, he was just an undersized but good QB who made plays.

"KeyFin wrote:

How do you cut #6 in passer rating though? Unless there's a major meltdown in these next three games that's NOT injury related, I don't see any scenario where he's not the starter in 2019.

There’s one....

lol.. yeah, and Tannehill right now has dropped from #6 to #11 in passer rating with a 100.6 rating (league average is close to 94).

"cbrad wrote:

lol.. yeah, and Tannehill right now has dropped from #6 to #11 in passer rating with a 100.6 rating (league average is close to 94).

Someone needs to fine tune that ridiculous stat anyway.

"Fin-O wrote:

Someone needs to fine tune that ridiculous stat anyway.

It can definitely be made better by doing two things: 1) including more components (e.g., QB rushing, Air Yards, etc..), and 2) finding the weights on each component that maximize the correlation between the rating and win% (called maximum likelihood estimation or MLE).

I told dj I'd at least include QB rushing and perform MLE on a better formula, and I'll do that but damn the formatting of the QB rushing data is taking time.. all kinds of exceptions encountered here and there. But yes the formula needs to be improved on and there are simple ways to do so. However, even an improved formula won't be worth much without large sample size, so I don't think anyone can put together a rating of the sort you're looking for (i.e., something that more or less captures what you think the QB did in a single game).

"Fin-O wrote:

Someone needs to fine tune that ridiculous stat anyway.

With today’s qbs there is no measure that ranks qbs correctly..

Passer rating is the worst because it doesn’t even involve what qbs do with their legs and how that impacts the game.

"Drizzy wrote:

When you know the two flip TDs against Oakland and the Miami Miracle are the sole reason he doesn’t rank 15th?

down to 21st now without those plays.

"Drizzy wrote:

down to 21st now without those plays.

And again...that isnt how stats work. Regardless of whether Tannehill is God, Garbage or between that isn't a valid method of analysis.