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New quarterback

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dolphins1372, Nov 27, 2018.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    You do note that if you take off the TDs all the other QBs “didn’t deserve” their ratings go down too?
     
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  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    This is an interesting read...for all of those touting we need a new quarterback

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...n-rodgers-lead-nfls-top-quarterbacks-for-2018

    Quarterbacks on this list include Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

    Gee I wonder....will these quarterbacks be in the playoffs, or at home watching them on TV like the rest of us?

    I guess it's time for the Packers to DUMP Rodgers...
    I guess it's time for the Falcons to DUMP Ryan...
    I guess it's time for the Panthers to DUMP Newton...
     
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  3. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Seriously. I would bet than a good chunk if not majority of passing TD come from a receiver making a play after the catch whether its 5 yards or 50, what constitutes a deserved TD?

    Also can we remove some fluke plays that went against us too then?

    I know we have broken a few long ones but so have other teams. We didnt invent it.
     
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  4. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    IMO, since they say it's really not a good draft for QB's and Gase really likes Tannehill, I think he will be in the picture no matter what we do this off-season. Besides, who are we going to sign? With the huge cap increase, teams will have a lot of money to spend and guys like Bridgewater are going to get a nice payday. Are we really going to pay two QB's starter money? I am guessing we will keep Tannehill, and then do what we always try and do like bring in some backup QB competition, a DE, LB or two, and OG/OC free agents. We will most likely overpay because it's going to be competitive for anyone worth a damn, if they don't stay with their current team.
     
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  5. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  6. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Going strictly by dollars is not a great measure imo. It's mostly just a list of "QB's who hit free agency in the past two years" rather than a meaningful ranking of talent or ability.
     
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  7. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    I don't totally disagree. However, it may also correlate to having to mortgage the farm to pay for the QB. One example is Green Bay. They are a mess and are lacking talent in a lot of positions, but Rodgers is getting paid and wont take a pay cut to help the team. One of the best QBs in football can't overcome the lack of team talent.
     
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  8. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    :smackhead:
     
  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Absolutely. And yet there are plenty who go on and on about the money.

    Money is a poor comparison in almost every way except when you have two QB's paid on the same year. Then you can start to compare the two and wonder about whether anyone overpaid. Outside of that, the money and market changes too much for any meaningful comparison.

    Percentage of team cap might be a better evaluation, maybe.
     
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  10. Dolphins1372

    Dolphins1372 Guest

    I believe that is why seattle got so good when they did. They paid wilson under 500,000 for his first 4 years. The team was stacked with talent. As soon as he got a big boy contract. The team went downhill. Still good. But not as great as they were with a cheap qb.
    So thats part of the reason i want to draft a qb. If you get lucky. And he is good right away. You can afford some serious other talent. Llike depth. Which we need bad.
     
  11. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I mean I didn’t remove a 5 yard slant that the receiver took to the house, I took away one fluke play where 3 different Dolphins touched the ball and two other plays that might as well have been jet sweep handoffs. Off the top of my head I’ve seen Mahomes, Brady, and Goff with a couple of those, you can exclude those plays from the equation, fat chance seeing any one of them drop almost 10 spots in passer rating.
     
  12. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The problem with this argument is its entirely based off of what you feel and not any sort of formula.

    If you did it for every QB Tannehill wouldnt be 15th. No-one knows where he would be actually. I'm going to remove the two INT from the Bengals game if that is the case since they were injury and offensive line related. He's not 15th again.

    My point isnt that hes amazing. The point is you can't use stats that way unless you do some insanely in depth analysis on every play like PFF claims to do.
     
  13. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    Those 3 are QBs that have made it to the SB.
     
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  14. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fixed
     
  15. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    How on earth can 3 plays be a sole reason?
     
  16. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I follow Green Bay a fair bit as a lot of my family roots for them and I spent a few years there as a kid, so they are kind of my NFC rooting interest hah. Rogers just signed his new deal - prior to that the cap wasn't so bad. GB's problem is that their drafting went to **** about 4-5 years ago, and they mostly refused to supplement. They are just generally bereft of talent, especially on defense. McCarthy also hit a wall coaching-wise about that same 4-5 years ago. Hitting on a young QB definitely gives you a nice window, but you need to develop that player quickly. Wilson and now Mahomes among others are good examples. As for Seattle, they did lose some because of the Wilson contract, but they also had defensive players age out and get hurt, but they are rebounding.

    The NFL needs to do something with the cap other than just raise it every year to account for positional value imo.

    The way I see it, once you get to the playoffs, you have 3 or maybe 4 must win games. At some point, your QB will need to step up and make plays to win. There may be a game they need to slap down 40 points. There may be a game where the offense only scores once, but they NEED to make tough plays to eke out that score or keep the ball away from the opponent. Some people think THill can be that guy. I don't, and I think until he proves he can or until he is not a Phin, that debate will rage on unchecked and unsolved.
     
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  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    ???
     
  18. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    In the same week as the Miami Miracle we saw Dak Prescott have what should have been an interception tipped and amazingly caught by Amari Cooper and turned into a TD. That counts and a positive for Dak. We saw Big Ben get credited with a lot of yards on the Steeler’s Hook and Lateral that should have srt up the game tying FG. The same thing applies to every QB, they all benefit at some point from amazing plays by the receiver or blocker. They all suffer penalties from amazing plays from defenders or horrible drops. They all benefit/get penalized by the way the stats are recorded.

    The point is that in big enough samples [with passer rating that is between 200 and 300 passes as the minimum] those random big pluses and minuses even out across the QB population.
     
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  19. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    Yes, thanks, Marino. It's not like Cam or Ryan were the MVP or anything. Oh, wait, never mind. Yeah, they actually were, ...but hey, dont let that stop you from being a ......
     
  20. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, it's not like Marino, or many other players who didn't make it to or win a SB, were ever MVP's...but hey, that doesn't stop people from totally misunderstanding the game of football and spewing their ignorance all over for the world to see.

    I mean, I'm sure you can give me many examples of a football team comprised of solely ONE player, a QB of course, who made it to the Super Bowl. I'm also CERTAIN that in your boundless knowledge of the game of football you can show me where the teams that Rodgers, Cam, and Ryan played on, during those Super Bowl runs, were crappy.

    One more thing...how are those 3 "MVP's" teams doing right now? Huh?

    Ryan has a 108 passer rating: Falcons are 4-9

    Cam has a 97 passer rating: Panthers are 6-7

    Rodgers has a 100 passer rating: Packers are 5-7-1

    They must suck...lol

    And now we've come full circle. Why? Because "Those QB's made the Super Bowl" is a weak, deluded, and lazy argument when talking about individual performance or team success.
     
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  21. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    For example, IMO, look at the Eagles. A big reason they won the Super Bowl last year was their locker room was tight, everybody bought in and gave it their all, and they played like a team on the field. When their starting QB got hurt, they rallied around the backup and picked up the slack. Although not an easy feat - finding good team chemistry is a ***** - it's a great example for the rest of us on what is needed to get to the big show - in my humble opinion.
     
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  22. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Just saw a ticker tape on NFL network saying RT leads all QB in TD's (8) since his return from his shoulder injury in Week 12.
     
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  23. Dolphins1372

    Dolphins1372 Guest

    I think you guys are missing something important? When the qb is under a rookie contract. The team can afford better players. Thus ryan, cam, russel, and now wentz. Do good in the early years. They start making the big money. The team gets worse. Brady actually takes a pay cut. To keep his team competitive. (I hate new england)
    Tannehill is gonna start getting paid. But we got rid of suh. And ryan isn’t gonna get the max. So stick with tanny and draft a cheap rookie.
     
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  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think its hard to find a scenario where Tannehill looks that good and you trade him because a rookie you likely drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round looks great in practice
    Mainly because if Tannehill is playing that well the rookie wont see the field.

    Remember Brees wasn't the Brees we know today when he left the Chargers, he was just an undersized but good QB who made plays.
     
  25. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There’s one....
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    lol.. yeah, and Tannehill right now has dropped from #6 to #11 in passer rating with a 100.6 rating (league average is close to 94).
     
  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Someone needs to fine tune that ridiculous stat anyway.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It can definitely be made better by doing two things: 1) including more components (e.g., QB rushing, Air Yards, etc..), and 2) finding the weights on each component that maximize the correlation between the rating and win% (called maximum likelihood estimation or MLE).

    I told dj I'd at least include QB rushing and perform MLE on a better formula, and I'll do that but damn the formatting of the QB rushing data is taking time.. all kinds of exceptions encountered here and there. But yes the formula needs to be improved on and there are simple ways to do so. However, even an improved formula won't be worth much without large sample size, so I don't think anyone can put together a rating of the sort you're looking for (i.e., something that more or less captures what you think the QB did in a single game).
     
  29. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    With today’s qbs there is no measure that ranks qbs correctly..

    Passer rating is the worst because it doesn’t even involve what qbs do with their legs and how that impacts the game.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2018
  30. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    down to 21st now without those plays.
     
  31. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    And again...that isnt how stats work. Regardless of whether Tannehill is God, Garbage or between that isn't a valid method of analysis.
     
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  32. Dolphins1372

    Dolphins1372 Guest


    No way we pass this kid up if we get a chance at him. I see potential. He throws good off his back foot. Runs when its open. And has a cannon. And those are teams like alabama he is playing.
     
  33. mbsinmisc

    mbsinmisc Season Ticket Holder

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    I am watching Ravens v Chargers. Phillip Rivers is a probable Hall of Famer. He looks a lot like Tannehill with 5 guys in his face every snap.
     
  34. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    We can start by stopping giving any of these guy's too much credit in the Passer rating department for short throws that a player does all the work for and scores. No Qb should get a false numbers boost, because he threw a basic pass and had 2 players lateral for a long TD. Until those things are fixed, it is a skewed formula in my opinion.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    As I said in the post you just quoted, one of the things you could include is Air Yards (instead of total passing yards) which fixes the issue you brought up. There's only one problem: most of the major sites (e.g., pro-football-reference) don't report Air Yards. Some other sites do but they don't have that stat going back many decades, meaning that it's hard to build a rating system based on such limited data. But yes this particular issue can be fixed in a fairly simple manner.
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don’t think he’s a hall of famer..he needs to win some playoff games let alone a championship
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If Phillip Rivers isn't a HoFer then I'm done giving credence to HoF inductions.
     
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  38. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Meanwhile, the QB that we decided to pass on (Lamar Jackson) has taken over a 4-5 Ravens team & led the to a 5-1 record (1:36 away from 6-0).

    That is all.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Relax on Jackson. Let's see how he does after a season or two of starting, and teams have plenty of tape on him.
     
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