Here is my mock and some brief thoughts about the teams selecting and the guys that they are taking. 2018 NFL Mock Draft Here are the rules that I have placed upon myself. I do not forecast trades in the mock draft because things will quickly get out of hand. In a highly unpredictable setting, I choose to deal with certainties and not uncertainties. I have made my picks based on whom I think each team will take, not whom they should take. I have also taken the liberty to grade the pick based on a multitude of different elements including, but not limited to: fit, value, and need. This being said, do not consider the draft grade necessarily a grade on the player. In order to help you understand my thought process, let’s consider one of the more intriguing draft prospects of this year, Josh Allen. My general thoughts on Allen are that he has nearly everything that you look for in a quarterback sans accuracy. He has a large frame, is mobile, and has a historically strong arm. In fact, it is not unreasonable to think that whatever team drafts him will instantly have the strongest arm in the league. Allen is coming out of Wyoming, and his team was not very good. He was constantly rushed, his receivers did not help his cause, and he was playing against inferior talent. Much of Allen’s draft grade will be predicated on his fit with the team that drafts him. I genuinely think that Allen might be two years away from playing. Moreover, I think that it is well within reason to think that he might not be ready to even dress on game days for at least part of his rookie year. In my mind, the best possible fit would be with a team that feels no pressure to put him in right away. Ideally, he would go to a team like the Giants, Patriots, Steelers, or Saints. Of those teams, clearly, the Giants are the most realistic. Allen could be anything from JaMarcus Russell to Kyle Bowler to Phillip Rivers to Dan Marino. I would certainly not be willing to trade up to get him because it is very realistic that he could fall into the latter category, but I would certainly be willing to chance a single first round pick on him. This is where the grading process truly takes shape. I would give the Giants an A- if they drafted Allen at #2. This would give Allen time, and if it doesn’t work out, they could walk away from the pick without huge repercussions a la Matt Lienart or Brady Quinn. On the other hand, if the Browns took him at #1, I would give them a C- grade. In this case, one pick makes all the difference in the world. While the Giants are a well-run organization, the Browns too often act in haste and fail to have a long-term vision. While I like Tyrod Taylor, I think the Browns, in typical Browns fashion, will push for Josh Allen to start sooner rather than later. Finally, I would take coaching into account. Deshone Kizer had accuracy issues coming out of Notre Dame and Hugh Jackson failed to improve them in any significant way. I have to wonder aloud, “What makes you think that he could fix Allen’s accuracy if he couldn’t fix Kizer’s accuracy?” Overall, to maximize the value of my mock draft, read it in its entirety. By doing this, you will get a more complete understanding of this year’s players. 1. Cleveland Browns –Josh Allen, QB Wyoming In a comedy of the absurd, the tealeaves seem to indicate that Allen will be the pick. With Sam Darnold, a plug and play guy sitting right before their eyes, the Browns elect to draft a project guy entirely on potential. Like I had previously written in the introduction, Allen has everything you could ask for in QB minus accuracy. Watching the tape on Allen, he struggled to accurately hit running backs out of the flat, and more humorously, while Baker Mayfield was able to drop passes into specific holes in a training net at the combine, Allen missed the net entirely –in shorts and a t-shirt. Anyone claiming Allen is accurate is wrong. Don’t believe the pundits. While Allen needs time to develop, that is one thing that Hugh Jackson simply does not have. After an 0-16 season, he is squarely on the hot seat. While Darnold could show enough in the final eight games of the season to keep Jackson employed, I would be shocked if Allen could do the same. My crystal ball says that this pick gets Jackson fired, and yet again, the Browns holy trinity in 2019 (coach, GM, and QB) may not be on the same page. I think that the best way for institutional success is for a coach and GM to enter a team together and choose its QB together. This way, responsibility can be mutually shared. Good organizations do this in order to avoid coaches from blaming GMs for not getting “their guy”at QB and GMs from complaining that they don’t have “their coach.” C- 2. New York Giants –Sam Darnold, QB USC Well, the two-year tradition of Browns blunders at QB extends into a third year as the Giants land the best QB in the draft. Darnold is a player ready to play week one, and could push Manning out of New York sooner rather than later. Darnold has a solid frame and thickness that makes him able to take a hit. He has a strong arm and good accuracy. He looked better as a freshman, but that was due to better roster talent at the time. I imagine that his first year of NFL coaching will revolve mainly around making better decisions with the ball. Darnold will need to work to get the “Brett Favre”out of him. A+ *Pick note –If Darnold is the first pick, this pick could/should be traded. In my mind, it feels like a deal between the Bills and Giants is preordained. 3. New York Jets –Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma Josh Rosen is my second rated passer, but if you pay careful attention, it becomes evident that the Jets will pass on him for political reasons. I would find it both difficult and unlikely for Jets’owner Woody Johnson, a Trump appointed ambassador, to make Josh Rosen the face of his franchise after he notoriously wore a custom made “F*#k Trump”hat in public. So, enter Baker Mayfield. To begin, Mayfield is unquestionably the most accurate QB in this draft class. His ball placement is a thing of beauty. My concern with Mayfield has been a question of whether my eyes are deceiving me. When watching Josh Allen throw, he was constantly under duress, but when watching Mayfield throw, I saw him consistently work out of clean pockets. There were moments in which he looked quite elusive at dodging defenders, but I struggled to find a game in which he was running for his life –I couldn’t. I think there is a difference between dodging a single defender and having strong pocket presence. I grade this part of his game as “unknown.” My biggest concerns rest in the measurables. After analyzing the draft for years, I strongly feel that two attributes most strongly correlate to the success of a QB: height and arm strength. Standing in a 6’1’’, he is at the low end of the spectrum, and his arm strength again feels at the low end of the spectrum. Teams will have to make the decision about whether Mayfield has “enough”in terms of height and arm strength. His cockiness and off the field incidents do not concern me as much as playing in a cold weather city. I would personally like to see Mayfield play in a warm weather city or dome team where the weather could mitigate his arm strength issues. In a way, the Mayfield pick reminds me of the Brandon Weeden draft. I felt both then and now that we will find out very quickly whether Mayfield will be successful in the NFL. If he does have “enough,”he has a very high ceiling. If he doesn’t have “enough,”he will be a career backup. They only possible mold that Mayfield can fit into and be successful is the Russell Wilson/Drew Brees mold. We should see him out of the field week 1 as he is the most NFL ready QB of the lot. C+ 4. Cleveland Browns –Saquon Barkley, RB Penn St. After signing Carlos to a reasonable deal, the Browns are in a situation where they have a certain degree of flexibility at this position. Hugh Jackson has stated that he dreams of the interesting things he could do with Myles Garrett and Bradley Chubb, and Chubb certainly merits consideration at this pick. Ultimately, the Browns decide to center their offense on the jack-of-all-trades, Saquon Barkley. Truth be told, Barkley can do it all –run, catch, block. He has a rare combination of both elite speed and power. With a team that has struggled to move the ball and score points, Barkley is a big play waiting to happen. A+ *Pick Note –Cleveland has been pretty good at stockpiling picks in the last few years; however, I think that this is not the year to trade back. Now is the time to start using these picks. 5. Denver Broncos –Josh Rosen, QB UCLA I sniffed this pick out by simply following the money. The Broncos brought in Case Keenum, but do they really believe he is the answer? The money says, “No.” Keenum signed a 2 year/$36 million deal in the offseason, and they could be out from under Keenum’s contract in coincidentally just enough time to groom a young prospect. Very interesting. Rosen is an interesting pick for many reasons. Last season, Rosen suffered two concussions. Of all the players with a history of concussions, Rosen’s story is the most interesting. If any player is able to independently evaluate the effects of concussions on his own personal health it is Rosen. His father is a highly regarded physician who at one point was a candidate to become Surgeon General. Moreover, Rosen comes from a historical significant and affluent family. Simply put, Rosen does not need football, and if his health became a concern, he could simply walk away. Baker Mayfield seems to draw the Johnny Manziel comparisons, but Rosen’s personality is worth considering. Although, coaches and teammates seem to say positive things about him, it is often with caveats. I don’t worry about substance abuse with Rosen like I did with Manziel, but I do wonder just how well received he is in a locker room. Rosen is outspoken and does rub people the wrong way. Maturity may be an issue for Rosen, and people wonder if he loves football. I do worry that a situation could potentially turn toxic if things were to go poorly early on. Finally, on to the field. Rosen was a guy I thought that I was not going to like during the season, but as I began to watch him, he began to grow on me. He has ideal size, and I think he has a live arm and can make every NFL throw. He does not have the accuracy of Mayfield or even Darnold, but it is nearing NFL readiness. With a bit of coaching and some work on his craft, I think that his accuracy can become more consistent. There were certainly flashes where he threw some very pretty balls through NFL windows. A lot was put on him last year, and it felt like the Bruins were in a shootout every other week. Rosen had the benefit of playing with a former NFL coach with strong bloodlines. It is also worth noting that his coach was fired after the season. Overall, I Rosen is my second ranked QB. I think he has traits that can be easily developed and are close to being NFL ready. It is entirely possible that he could start week one, and if not, he should be ready to start at some point in his rookie season. A- 6. Indianapolis Colts –Bradley Chubb, DE NC State Prior to the draft, the Colts were like the popular high school girl that everyone wants to take to prom. The Dolphins, Bills, Bears, and possibly even the Patriots are eyeing this pick. Ideally, the Colts want to trade back and draft Roquan Smith. But after the top four quarterbacks and Saquon Barkley are off the board, suddenly, the popular girl realizes when the phone stops ringing that she waited too long to find a date. The great deals that they were being offered hours ago have long since passed. Luckily for the Colts, both Smith and the last truly special prospect, Chubb are on the table. With so many needs, the Colts wind up taking the best defensive prospect in the draft. Bradley Chubb has an ideal blend of size and speed. Chubb flies off the line with elite speed and complements his speed with meanness and aggressiveness. Chubb was a constant disruptor on the tape and consistently plays at a high level. A+ 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –Derwin James, S Florida State James has big frame and plays even bigger. His speed and leaping ability allows him to really maximize his body and get a lot out of his coverage skills. His versatility and ability to play all over the field will help to really lift his draft stock. He will most naturally play safety at the next level, but James has spent significant time moonlighting at nickel, linebacker, and edge rusher. My guess is that after looking at the measurables, versatility, and his blitzing abilities, a defensive coordinator will quickly covet him. Going forward, James needs to work to take better angles when tackling. A 8. Chicago Bears –Quentin Nelson, G Notre Dame If it is ever possible to fall in love with a guard, Nelson is the one to make it happen. Nelson is big, imposing, and has a nasty streak in him. The way that he is able to move opponents with ease exemplifies just how great of a talent he is. His level of dominance at the collegiate level is of historical note. After losing Josh Sitton in free agency, Nelson can easily step into his shoes as a day one starter. Additionally, his meanness and blue-collar work ethic will make him quickly become a fan favorite in Chicago. A+ 9. San Francisco49ers –Denzel Ward, CB The Ohio State University The 49ers wedding with John Lynch far exceeded expectations, but the wedding night hangover was incredibly painful with former 1stround pick, Rueben Foster’s offseason charges of felony domestic violence. Lynch thought he the line backing corps headed in the right direction, but with Foster’s status with the team in real jeopardy and numerous holes at defense, Lynch is facing his first crisis as a GM. Lynch considers one of the premiere linebackers but ultimately selects Denzel Ward to pair with Richard Sherman. Lynch feels that having bookends at the corner position makes this an area of strength to lean on and also provides for the future as Sherman is up there in age. Ward is a great talent coming out of a school that has had great success in recent years at producing corners. Ward is faster than any of his predecessors, and I struggled to find tape on him where he needed to demonstrate recovery speed. It never felt like he struggled to cover anyone. He does a superior job at putting himself in position to make plays and should be penciled in as a day one starter. A 10. Oakland Raiders –Vita Vea, DT Washington John Gruden is back on the clock after a long hiatus. He has made it no secret that he wants to return to an old school approach for the Raiders. The Raiders need to get better on defense and had sniffed around Suh in the offseason. When Gruden sees Vea on the board, he gets flashbacks to his days in Tampa with Warren Sapp. There are few people on the planet that look like Vita Vea. At 6’4’’and weighing in at 345 lbs., he is a behemoth of a man. Undoubtedly, he will excel at plugging up holes. Despite only recording 9.5 sacks in his college career, he is surprisingly athletic. Although pass rushing will likely never be his strong suit, he does have decent closing speed considering his frame. He will be a day one starter and a run-stopping specialist. A 11. Miami Dolphins –Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech It’s a family affair in South Beach. Like his father, Tremaine becomes a Miami Dolphin. Edmunds is my favorite linebacker in the draft. He reminds me a of the classic Chicago Bears line backing model. He is built with a large and domineering frame and is coupled with excellent speed for a linebacker. He can do everything on a football field –cover (both man and zone), stop the run, and blitz. Edmunds will be a better pro than a college player as his primary weakness is that he gets confused in read option type situation. I suspect that NFL teams will think twice before running their $100 million franchise quarterback into the lion’s den. Edmunds suddenly transforms a Dolphins’line backing corps from a weakness into a strength. The Dolphins get last year’s second round pick Raekwon McMilllan back from injury and add Edmunds and Alonzo into the mix. Miami struggled to stop the run, and Edmunds specializes in run stopping. Edmunds can tackle from out of position on pure strength alone. Perhaps this is a euphemism for saying that he is a poor tackler. Truth be told, it is probably a little bit of both. A 12. Buffalo Bills –Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville Okay, if there is one team that I am positive wants to trade up and has the ammunition to do so, it’s the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately, I do not forecast trades in my mock drafts, so let’s just assume that they cannot swing a deal to grab one of the top four quarterbacks. Based on the first three picks of the draft, it is entirely possible, that the Bills might not be able to move up. The truth was never more apparent when AJ McCarron was unable to secure a serious financial commitment that teams do not view him as the answer. The Bills, in full desperation mode, wind up selecting Jackson who really does not fit into a Bills’system. Jackson has accuracy issues and New York weather conditions look to only exacerbate his problems. Additionally, Jackson’s college style play in such a poor climate seems to increase the chances of injury to this young QB. I think Jackson would fit much better in places that have more ideal field conditions –Miami or Arizona. Jackson has elite arm strength but needs to work on his accuracy. Jackson has game changing speed a la Michael Vick. Jackson’s future rests more on fit than any other QB. C 13. Washington Redskins –Da’Ron Payne, DT Alabama For what this is, it’s a good pick. The Redskins were terrible at stopping the run, and Payne immediately gets them better at the line of attack. In certain circles, scouts feel that Payne will be a better pro than a collegiate player. In Alabama, Payne faced plenty of double teams that he likely will not face as a pro. For a big guy, he showed flashes of mobility that could potentially turn him into a pass rusher from the middle. In my mind, he lacks the explosiveness of my second favorite defensive tackle, Taven Bryan. But here’s the rub, I think that Washington is really wants to address the run game, and Payne far exceeds Bryan in that skillset. I don’t see the high ceiling that other scouts see for Payne, but the pick certainly makes the Redskins better today. B+ 14. Green Bay Packers –Josh Jackson, CB Iowa This going to be an interesting pick to watch as Ted Thompson is no longer calling the shots in the Green Bay. Brian Gutekunst seems to be the foil to Thompson as he looks to make more splashes and aggressive moves than his processor. Interestingly enough, I think the ghosts of Ted Thompson seem to remain in the Packers’war room for at least one more pick. On my personal board, I have Jaire Alexander as my second rated corner after Jackson posted a subpar 40 time at the scouting combine. Jackson appeared to redeem himself at the Iowa pro day where everyone seemed to run considerably faster. Hmmmmm. I do have doubts about Jackson’s speed, but I think Green Bay is a place where his lack of top-flight speed can be mitigated. The frozen tundra of Lambeau field seems to slow everyone down and lessens the likelihood of an obvious mismatch. After transitioning from wide receiver to corner, Jackson was a one-year wonder that showcased his ability to be a ball-hawking corner. I love how he catches the ball like a receiver and plays with aggression. It seems like he is on a lot of plays. Moreover, his three-interception game against The Ohio State University demonstrates his ability to compete against elite competition. A+ 15. Arizona Cardinals –Minkah Fitzpatrick, S Alabama By most accounts, this would be regarded as a fairly significant free fall for Fitzpatrick as many scouts consider him a top-ten talent. But with an early run on quarterback talent and several ideal fits, the Cardinals secure both value and need due to the recent departure of the Honeybadger. Fitzpatrick is not nearly as physically impressive as the flashy Derwin James, but he sure does check a lot of boxes. Most notably, Fitzpatrick is a strong and reliable tackler that is not afraid to be physical. Like James, Fitzpatrick has some position flexibility as he play corner as well. You gotta love this pick. Value –check, need –check. A+ 16. Baltimore Ravens –Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama A lot has been made of the decline of Joe Flacco in recent year, but truth be told, the Ravens have not been a particularly talented roster in recent years either. Just looking at their roster, it is filled with holes. Realistically, their entire offense could crumble if Michael Crabtree were to suffer a serious injury. On Ozzie Newsome’s last first round pick with the Ravens, he does what he loves to do most –he picks a player from Alabama. In a weak receiver class, Ridley is a difficult player to evaluate. Alabama likes to build its offense through the running game. As evidenced by a quarterback change in the National Championship, Alabama had real issues with the passing game this season. In fairness to Ridley, he has notched impressive season stats in each of his collegiate years. I saw many instances where Ridley ran smooth routes and was open but balls were either not thrown his way or were poorly thrown. It is natural his proponents to argue that those would be receptions, but in fairness to his detractors, drops have been a constant problem that his plagued him. While receiving at Alabama, when he was open, he was really open. It is reasonable to speculate that at the NFL level, he will have more passes physically contested, and teams have to wonder whether that will lead to more drops. Ridley has decent size and explosive speed that certainly warrants first round consideration, but so did Breshad Perriman. In my mind Ridley is a bit of a gamble and his value is largely hinged on teams’tolerance for risk. B- 17. Los Angeles Chargers –Roquan Smith, LB Georgia After the Colts failed to select him early on in the draft and late medical red flags began to come out, this once potential top 10 pick has to play the waiting game. Smith may be slightly undersized, but his fluid hips and lateral quickness compensate for this slight chink in his armor. Smith is a modern day linebacker that can cover as well as tackle. Despite having a small-ish frame, he is a hard and disciplined tackler. The Chargers seem to be another team that strikes gold with the early run on quarterback by filling a major need with a major talent. A+ 18. Seattle Seahawks –Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville After just peering at the Ravens fall from grace, it appears that the Seahawks might be headed in same direction. The bigger problem facing the Seahawks is that they have more holes than draft picks. They would take any reasonable offer to move back and acquire more picks. But at pick 18, the talent level is not the same as it was early in the draft. After being forced to make a selection, Pete Carroll realizes that he needs to get younger at corner. Richard Sherman was cut as a cost cutting measure, and it seems like Earl Thomas could be leaving sooner rather than later. Seattle usually likes its defensive backs on the bigger side, and that is unfortunately not the case with Alexander. What Alexander does have that Seattle covets is nastiness. He is probably the most physical corner in the draft and plays with his hands –at times a bit too much. He is active in both pass and run defense and plays with a certain level of fearlessness. On the other side of this coin is his problem with injuries as a result of his play style. Overall, his elite speed and physical nature are a close enough match to Seattle’s playing style. A- 19. Dallas Cowboys –DJ Moore, WR Maryland In a weird tale of connect the dots, I find the Cowboys selecting DJ Moore with the 19thpick. Strangely, just weeks before the draft, the Cowboys announced the release of Dez Bryant. Because Bryant was a longtime vet of the Cowboys and the release came so late in the free agency process, it left me scratching my head. I understand it appears that Dez has lost a step and does not release like he once did, I am not exactly sure that Allen Hurns fills his void. The epiphany hit me as I struggled to make this selection –they are convinced that they will be able to obtain his replacement via the draft. Like any great detective, I did my homework and checked the Cowboys visitations and saw that they have met with Moore on three different occasions. The interest appears genuine. Now, it is entirely possible that Moore is plan B, and they truly covet Ridley. A trade with Seattle makes so much sense. Seattle is one pick above the Ravens, Ridley’s most logical destination, and they are in desperate need of picks. Moore is another difficult prospect to scout. It is fair to say, his quarterback was less than accurate. Moore demonstrated great speed at the combine, but I struggled to see it on the field. Perhaps Big 10 weather played a role in that. I was most impressed with Moore’s crisp route running ability, and despite his adversity, he was awarded the Big 10 Receiver of the Year. The problem with Moore is I found myself making excuses for him –having to catch inaccurate balls, drops (caused by weather and bad ball placement, not looking very fast on film. He has a less than ideal frame for a boundary receiver and may find a home at the slot. This is most concerning as the Cowboys seem to have multiple capable slot receivers on their roster (Beasley and Switzer), and I don’t really see Moore filling this void. C- 20. Detroit Lions –Harold Landry, EDGE Boston College The defensive minded Matt Patricia looks to make his mark on the Lions early on in his tenure. While the offense has some holes (TE,RB), Patricia sees the defensive end position as a priority for a handful of reasons. First of all, it is an area of need. Second of all, the draft is not filled with pass rushers like previous years. And probably most notably, there is a realistic chance that Ziggy Ansah might not be retained after next season. So, the Lions get a need, a value, a player that helps both immediately and is significant in the long-term future, and a pretty solid player. Landry has the build of a shorter Jason Taylor –more of the athletic type of defensive end. Landry is the type of player that centers him game on speed off the ball, the ability to close in the on the quarterback quickly, and move past tackles. A+ 21. Cincinnati Bengals –Mike McGlinchey, T Notre Dame Chalk the Cincinnati Bengals up as another team finding both value and fit in their draft. McClinchey is a tackle that predicates his game on his strength. He is the best point-of-attack tackle in the draft. When he is in position, and takes on a defender, he is dominant. He does have questionable footwork, and when out of position, he struggles to reestablish position. This problem seems to exacerbate itself in systems that require more motion for their tight ends. Luckily, the Bengals will not be trying to run a collegiate style offense with Andy Dalton at the helm. Two years ago, the Bengals offensive line was raided in free agency, and they struggled to run the ball this season. Many scouts tend to project McGlinchey as a right tackle, and the Bengals would likely position him there as a day one starter. A 22. Buffalo Bills –Isaiah Wynn, G Georgia The Bills are seemingly forced to address their offensive line with the recent departures of Cordy Glenn, Eric Wood, and Richie Incongito. Putting a young quarterback behind a dismal line is a recipe for disaster. Isaiah Wynn is ideal in a sense. He is a college tackle that will likely transition to guard and could possibly play center. Wynn plays with strength and is great at pushing bodies. Wynn plays well in space and could function as a pulling guard. In my mind, Wynn is undervalued and is a ready plug and play starter. While many people will call for Will Hernandez here, Wynn’s solid technique and readiness to start places him above Hernandez. A- 23. New England Patriots –Marcus Davenport, DE University of Texas San Antonio The Patriots were hoping to draft Mike McGlinchey here and were upset to see him selected two picks ahead of them. Obviously, reaching for inferior talent is anything but the Patriot way, and Bellichick is surprised to see Marcus Davenport still on the board at 23. Bellichick sees enough raw potential in the small school prospect to warrant a first round selection. Davenport is a disruptive force that plays with meanness. He has a thick, muscular frame, and he gets the most out of his body. He has a nice burst off the line and can quickly close in on a quarterback. If I could describe his play in one work, I would use the term “violent.” The only major knock on Davenport is that he faces weaker competition and pure athleticism has made him dominant. Teams will need to forecast what his game will look like at the next level, but I would personally be comfortable taking Davenport much earlier. A- 24. Carolina Panthers –Connor Williams, T Texas A lot of really good early picks seemingly leave the pantry empty for the Panthers. There are some pretty solid players available, but they don’t exactly fill a need for the Panthers. They decide that it wouldn’t be prudent to reach for a player either. Ultimately, the Panthers decide that Williams would certainly improve their line and is talented enough to be drafted here. Williams is a strong tackle out of Texas, but I felt like his greatest strength is his feet. Williams is really strong when moving, and I expect that pairing him with Christian McCaffrey would be an ideal matching as River Boat Ron looks to incorporate more exotic plays and formations in his offense. B 25. Tennessee Titans –Leighton Vander Esch, LB Boise St. Leighton Vander Esch is a guy flying up draft boards, and in all honesty, he could wind up going much earlier than this. I see him as more of the flavor of the month and less of a hidden gem. Vander Esch is a big guy that certainly looks the part and brings great speed to his game. Teams like him for his coverage ability and see him as the future of the position. After watching film on him, I struggled to see the player I seen described. I saw a guy who easily got lost in blocks at the collegiate level, and I questioned his ability to get to runners while in college. It seems like the transition from Boise St. to the NFL might be more difficult than anticipated. C- 26. Atlanta Falcons –Taven Bryan, DT Florida The Falcons get their man with Taven Bryan. Rumors have been circling for some time that the Atlanta covets Taven Bryan, and for good reason. Bryan has got decent size for an interior lineman, but his biggest asset is his ability to rush the passer from the interior. Bryan is good at winning his battles, and once he gets passed a defender, he demonstrates elite closing speed. What is most impressive is that it feels like Bryan is winning his battles on pure athleticism alone. Atlanta has already found success rushing the passer with Vic Beasley, and teaching Bryan a little more technique could take his game to the next level. I really am a fan of Bryan, and I cannot recall a player quite like him in recent memory. A 27. New Orleans Saints –Dallas Goedert, TE South Dakota St. I have never seen a team run their entire offense through its tight end quite like South Dakota State. Goedert lines up all over the field and is frequently put in motion. Although, primarily a receiving tight end, his blocking shows promise. I love just how smoothly he gets off the line. He runs solid routs and consistently found holes in the defense. With Drew Brees and Sean Payton, I think New Orleans is a perfect match for him. Goedert can be most successful in a creative offense. Goedert is a fringe first round guy that I like more than most in the draft community. Goedert needs to work on his consistency of catching the ball. A 28. Pittsburg Steelers –Rashaan Evans, LB Alabama After losing Ryan Shazier to a catastrophic injury, they look to find a replacement to anchor the defense. Unfortunately, for the Steelers, much of the top tier linebacker talent is off the board. I yawned while watching Evan’s college tape. Evans was consistently where he was supposed to be and doing what he was supposed to do. Additionally, the word “good”came to mind when watching Evans. He does a lot of things well, but never really jumped off tape. His most impressive trait is his lateral quickness and his ability to cover in zone situations. When watching Alabama players, I have grown accustom to watching them jump off the tape. In recent history, Alabama players have had the benefit of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. It is not until they move onto the NFL where they become more exposed. So in this sense, the fact that he is not jumping off the film is concerning. Ultimately, the Steelers replace a great linebacker with a very average player. B- 29. Jacksonville Jaguars –Hayden Hurst, TE South Carolina Ideally, the Jaguars would look to get better at receiver, but unfortunately, an Allen Robinson replacement is not readily available at this position. Aside from receiver, the Jaguars do not have any glaring holes. Ultimately, they select the former baseball player, Hayden Hurst. Hurst was a fun guy to scout because I think that he will be a better pro than collegiate player. I looked at Hurst as having the traits needed to be a solid player at the pro level. Hurst has a solid frame and is built like a TE. He could eventually morph into a complete package at the NFL level. He can block, catch, run solid routes, and brings dynamic speed to his game as well. You may not have heard of Hurst because his quarterback was not very good. I suspect that had he played with a more reliable quarterback, he would be a more highly coveted prospect. B+ 30. Minnesota Vikings –Will Hernandez, G UTEP If there are any certainties in the 2018 draft, it is that Minnesota needs to address their offensive line situation –likely early and potentially often. Minnesota has a great nucleus of young guys at skill positions on offense. After spending a lot on Kirk Cousins, it is now time to protect their investments with a line. Will Hernandez is probably the second strongest lineman in the draft (Nelson). He has a sense of nastiness as he bullies defenders. Hernandez has thrived on strength alone at the college game. To say he has poor technique is an understatement. I fear that this gives him the possibility of bust potential, but I also think that Mike Zimmer could help him develop some semblance of technique. B- 31. New England Patriots –Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M As soon as I saw the tape on Christian Kirk, I had visions of him in a New England Patriots’uniform. If any team understands the value of a slot receiver, it is the Patriots. The Patriots have lost Brandon Cooks, Danny Amendola, and Dion Lewis. To be blunt, the Patriots need playmakers. I truly think Christian Kirk could revolutionize the slot position. He has great hands, runs solid routes, and has breakaway speed. He specializes at turning ordinary plays into big plays. He reminds me of a Jarvis Landry with speed. Additionally, Kirk is an elite returner that brings solid special teams value. In my opinion, Kirk is the best receiver in the draft. It does not concern me that he is “just a slot receiver.” A 32. Philadelphia Eagles –Sam Hubbard, DE The Ohio State University After the recent arrest of Michael Bennett, the Eagles suddenly are in need of a defensive end. The Eagles are a well-built team, and have the ability to make such a pick. Ultimately, this could be both a long term and a short-term fix as Chris Long is getting up there in age. This would mark consecutive years in which the Eagles addressed the end position. The end position is not very deep this year, and the Eagles look to take an aggressive approach at adding talent. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Hubbard was one of the prospects that I just never understood. He’s big. That to me is his biggest asset. He looks the part. Aside from that, he has average strength and average speed. The players that were drafted ahead of him exploded off the tape. If it wasn’t for Bennett’s recent legal problems, I think that they Eagles would have taken a chance on Arden Key. In the aftermath of player personnel scandals, teams tend to be overly cautious. C+ Big Board 1. Quentin Nelson, G Notre Dame 2. Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State 3. Bradley Chubb, DE NC State 4. Sam Darnold, QB USC 5. Denzel Ward, CB The Ohio State University 6. Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech. 7. Roquan Smith, LB Georgia 8. Harold Landry, DE Boston College 9. Derwin James, S Florida St. 10. Vita Vea, DT Washington Top Quarterbacks 1. Sam Darnold, USC 2. Josh Rosen, UCLA 3. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 4. Josh Allen, Wyoming 5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville 6. Mike White, Western Kentucky Order in Which the QBs Will be Drafted 1. Josh Allen, Wyoming 2. Sam Darnold, USC 3. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 4. Josh Rosen, UCLA 5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville Top 3 Most Overrated Players (True Value in Parenthesis) 1. Kolton Miller, T UCLA (4th) 2. Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan (3rd) 3. Leighton Vander Esch, LB Boise St. (2nd) 10 years from now, we will say the best player in the draft in the draft was Sam Darnold, QB USC. 10 years from now, we will say the biggest first round bust was Kolton Miller, T UCLA. The annual hidden gem of the draft Shaqem Griffin, EGG UCF. Odds and Ends As this whole process has come together for me, I really think that this year is about one thing: fit. I cannot remember a single time in recent history where I haven’t had at least one quarterback as one of my most overrated players. I think that this is one of the best quarterback classes in quite some time, and I think all five of the top guys deserve their first round grades. That being said, undoubtedly, there will be busts. Teams that try and fit a square peg into a round hole may be just as much to blame for the failure of a quarterback as the quarterback himself. Additionally, just looking at the quarterback ranking in a linear manner may be doing a disservice to your understanding of the evaluation process. In order to really clarify the most important position of the draft, I will discuss types of teams that would fit each quarterback –regardless of draft position. Sam Darnold –Would be a fit for all 32 NFL teams. Josh Rosen –Would fit anywhere but the Jets for political reasons. Baker Mayfield –Would fit best in warm weather teams or dome teams or teams that run an offense predicated on short passes. Ideally, he would start sooner rather than later. Good fits –Miami, Arizona, New England, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Los Angeles Chargers Josh Allen –This is the most complicated one. He needs to go to a place with a stable head coach anda veteran QB that could start for at least two years and a team with a solid infrastructure for developing a quarterback. Good fits –New England, New Orleans, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Baltimore Lamar Jackson –Would best fit a warm weather or dome team and have a coach that shows creativity and ability to design a scheme around his game. Ideally, putting him on the field with other great athletes would make sense. Good fits –New England, New Orleans, Miami. Crazy good fit –Jacksonville Many of the talking heads are saying there are between 10 and 15 blue chip prospects this year, and after that, there is a significant drop off. They are saying that after that the talent level that will be mid to late first round prospects will be the same talent level that will be available midway through the second round. Now here is the thing about the pundits, sometimes they are right, and this is one of them. Here is an interesting tidbit. If you look at my big board, you will notice that there is only one quarterback in my top ten, but my mock has five going early. The crystal ball seems to be forecasting quarterbacks flying off the board early. Now if you are a mathematician, you could probably figure out that the magic line in the sand is somewhere in the late teens. Most NFL fans agree that trades are the most exciting part of the draft. This year, you want to be buying not selling. I personally view picks after pick 18~ as a second round picks because the value simply is not there. Ideally, if I were the GM of a team picking early, I would try and stay away from the 18 mark because as your approach that position, you are limited in choice of player and position. Once that magical line has been crossed, the draft strategy immediately flips. These mid to late first round picks may want to trade back and try and pick up a second round pick because you are now picking from the same talent pool. There is nice pass rushing talent available in this draft, but there is limited supply. Arden Key is a great talent that has fallen. He walked away from the LSU team, and I imagine teams may view him as a potential Dion Jordan. This is one of the worst years for receiver talent that I have seen in in a long time; however, there is depth to be found at the running back position. Mike White is really underrated. I don’t see a big difference between him and the top 5 quarterbacks. Mason Rudolph is really overrated. He really doesn’t have top-flight accuracy, and claims that he has “the best deep ball in the draft”are vastly overstated.
