People think I am crazy when I tell them that I have West Virginia's Tavon Austin as the best receiver in the draft over the likes of Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Robert Woods, etc. The Miami Dolphins should study Austin hard as he is a game changer that they should really take a look at with the 12th pick in the 2012 NFL draft. Austin holds numerous state records in Maryland where he played running-back for Dunbar high school. In his senior season at Dunbar, Austin rushed for 2,600 yards and 34 touchdowns (Wikipedia). Austin grew up in a "not-nice" part of Baltimore, Maryland where he faced many hardships and was faced with constant adversity. Living in less than ideal circumstances can really define a man and while it is easy to conform to norm and make the wrong decisions, Austin remained focused on football and his family. Austin is a high character man willing to dedicate himself to his craft putting endless time into making himself a better football player. Tavon Austin is one of the most dangerous receivers I have seen as he has sure-fire homerun ability due to his unparallelled change of direction skills combined with his balance, coordination, and ability to make defenders miss in the open field. Austin' best position in the NFL will be in the slot where he was primarily used in West Virginia' spread offense as he will create nightmares for opposing defensive coordinators with is uncanny game speed. Austin is fast and should run in the 4.4 range at the NFL combine but his game speed is much faster than his forty time would indicate. Given that Austin was a high school running-back there should be no question to why Austin was as effective as a runner than as a receiver while at West Virginia. Austin had a monstrous senior season for the Mountaineers accounting for 1,289 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns and an additional 639 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. You can truly see Austin's brilliance as a runner when he thrashed the Oklahoma Sooners for 344 yards on the ground and two scores on November 17, 2012. Both as a receiver and as a runner the one thing that separates Austin from the pack is his ability to change speeds as well as his ability to start and stop without hesitation. This poses a serious threat to defenders as Austin will consistently set them up forcing them to take poor angles in their pursuit of him. To increase Austins' effectiveness whomever drafts him should develop an offensive scheme similar to that run at West Virginia which focus on getting the ball to Austin quickly via screens, slants, and end-arounds so that he can get opposing corners one on one in space and ultimately make them miss and make a big play out of nothing. Austin also offers great value in the return game as he is no stranger to returning kicks/punts. He had four kick returns for touchdowns while at West Virginia. Dolphins' fans are going to be scared off due to the painful memory that is Ted Ginn Jr. but believe me when I say that Austin is a totally different player as he does not shy away from hits and is even more elusive than Ted Ginn Jr. Tavon Austin is a far more developed receiver entering the pro ranks in comparison to Ted Ginn Jr. in 2007 coming out of Ohio State. Unlike Ginn, Austin has the ability to beat press coverage due to his quickness and can adjust to the ball while it is in the air which is something that Ginn simply did not do well. There are some flaws in Tavon Austin's game that cannot be ignored. First you cannot ignore the fact that Austin is only 5"9, 180 lbs soaking wet and that small frame will have scouts wondering whether Austin will be "injury-prone" similar to Percy Harvin in Minnesota. Additionally Austin is not a brilliant route runner by any means. Austin needs coaching at the next level to blossom as a route runner and develop a route tree that will make him even more of a threat. When you see Austin' statistics at West Virginia you would think that he caught a ton of fly routes just simply beating defenders with his straight line speed but that is not the case. As mentioned earlier the West Virginia offense was focused on getting the ball to Austin on short and intermediate routes rather than throwing the ball down field. With that said we truly do not know how effective Austin will be as a down field receiver in the NFL. The Dolphins are in the market for weapons with names such as Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings being thrown around. Austin brings a dimension that the Dolphins' offense clearly lacks and brings big play ability to the sunshine state. Drafting Austin would almost certainly spell the end for Davone Bess in Miami as Austin is strictly a slot receiver but with that said Austin also present a major upgrade from Bess. Miami needs to surround Ryan Tannehill with weapons and Tavon Austin is the type of player that can be a great security blanket for the Dolphins' young signal-caller.
I am no expert and I love Austin's abilities. But, he's still very small. I guess the question is, are there dominant WR's (which is what you want if you draft a guy in round 1) who are that size in the last decade? Other than maybe Wes Welker? He has a lot to offer in versatility (PR/KR; some RB situations; and as a slot WR). But, I can't see him as a great WR as a starter out wide. A Welker with speed - that could be a great addition. I would like him at the end of round 1. Either going to a team that is already a contender or - for the Dolphins, trading down into the 20's. He may be better than any of the other top WR candidates - but their size is significant when it comes to being a dominant WR.
My concern about Tavon Austin is whether you have to scheme him open on routes. He's a guy that works the slot and works out of the backfield, takes advantage of mismatches with linebackers. You get the ball to him in space and then let him just GO, like a wind-up toy. But can he go out there in one-on-one situations with real corners or defensive backs and just consistently create separation and haul in the football? That's my question for him. You could also say that about Cordarrelle Patterson as it's clear Tennessee tried to get him the ball anyway they could especially in space. I think Tavon Austin is a lot like Cordarrelle Patterson. Except, Patterson is like 6 inches taller. Even though Patterson doesn't have a ton of experience, you still have seen him actually get out there and run real receiver routes and get open against the likes of Florida's Louchiez Purifoy, Florida's Jaylen Watkins, Georgia's Branden Smith, Georgia's Sanders Commings, Mississippi State's Darius Slay, Mississippi State's Johnthan Banks, North Carolina State's David Amerson, Alabama's Robert Lester, Missouri's E.J. Gaines and Vanderbilt's Andre Hal. These are all draftable defensive backs.
It's a very valid concern but I am a believer in Austin. I am in no way shape or form a scout or do I have an NFL eye but Tavon Austin is one of the most dynamic players I've witnessed. I think he can be a better pro than Percy Harvin and that is pretty bold.
Considering Patterson's low % of passes that are essentially screen passes, I'm not sure they did enough to get him the ball in space.
The biggest concern about snagging a receiver at 12 is that rookie receivers rarely make a difference. I know there a few exceptions but when it comes to the receiver position it seems even the best collegiate players need time to adjust to the pro level. I think you answer the wide receiver issues via free agency. Resigning Hartline and landing one of the big three does that
That actually brings up something that I've been thinking. Aren't screen passes essentially run plays? That's how most people consider them. Yeah you have to catch the football but it's not like it's difficult catch. When you're looking at a Keenan Allen or Stedman Bailey and you see that between 30-35% of their plays are screen passes, and you see that screens account for like 25% of the catches of Markus Wheaton and Quinton Patton...why are we looking at Cordarrelle Patterson's run production and completely separating it out from his receiving production? The Vols did not run a lot of screens. They replaced them with end-arounds which functioned as pretty much the same thing for them. I don't think Cordarrelle Patterson's 25 run plays for 308 yards should be considered any differently from Quinton Patton's ~27 screen passes for ~167 yards, Stedman Bailey's ~36 screens for ~288 yards, Keenan Allen's ~18 screens for ~114 yards, or Markus Wheaton's ~22 screens for ~126 yards. I would note that Cordarrelle Patterson had 4 real screens for 48 more yards, a 12.0 yard per screen average that mimics his 12.3 yards per carry average...although it should be noted 4 screen plays isn't enough to really draw conclusions on. Markus Wheaton had 20 carries for 142 yards, a 7.1 yard average that is not statistically dissimilar from his 5.71 yard per screen average. Keenan Allen only had 3 carries for 39 yards, a 13.0 yard average, but as it's only 3 plays...again I'm not sure if there's any conclusions to be drawn. Stedman Bailey had 2 carries for 13 yards, a 6.5 yard average...versus his screen average of 8.0 yards. Quinton Patton only took 1 carry for -5 yards. Anyway the bottom line I'm getting at is that any analysis of Cordarrelle Patterson probably needs to consider the 25 runs for 308 yards and 3 TDs as part of the production, giving him 71 plays for 1086 yards and 8 TDs. I think we can leave out the 28 yard pass he threw because I don't see any rationale that says the skill he displayed on the throw has anything to do with what he'll do out on routes or with the ball in his hands. On the other hand, while I would not dare pollute catch/run data with returns data...I do strongly feel that TOUCHDOWNS need to count, no matter how you scored them. The production comparison: Stedman Bailey - 116 plays, 1640 yards, 25 TDs Tavon Austin - 184 plays, 1939 yards, 17 TDs DeAndre Hopkins - 82 plays, 1405 yards, 18 TDs Terrance Williams - 99 plays, 1846 yards, 12 TDs Quinton Patton - 105 plays, 1387 yards, 13 TDs Markus Wheaton - 111 plays, 1386 yards, 13 TDs Cordarrelle Patterson - 71 plays, 1086 yards, 10 TDs Justin Hunter - 73 plays, 1083 yards, 9 TDs Keenan Allen - 64 plays, 776 yards, 8 TDs
Im telling you, I stopped watching the youtubes of Stedman Bailey because I just get this nasty feeling he wont be in Miami next year, and I don't want to be angry in April.
Agree. Before you take players who need specific, non-bread-and-butter plays to be productive, you add traiditonal WRs who can line up and contribute. Tavon, to me, is like a faster Dexter McCluster. That's not a bad thing, but it would be mis-appraising him to project him as a guy who can play the role of a traditional receiver effectively. He is built perfectly for screens, for example, but not a corner route. I would not send him on a deep in route where he would need to go up in the air over a linebacker and safety to secure the ball. Sideline routes? Not a strength. He is a guy you have to find ways to get the most out of. That's certainly possible, but not ideal. It means it is easier for him to disappear from games depending on how the defense is schemed. I don't like that. And I really dislike looking at any high-pick as a guy with special teams contributions, because the truth is, if he's contributing significantly there it's because he never became important enough to your base offense over the long term so you are salvaging value from him now. He's not as "wide receivery" as Percy Harvin (sorry for the technical terms, for those who aren't famimliar). http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=65839&draftyear=2010&genpos=WR
If you take one of these guys, and he is NOT a disappointment as a receiver, meaning he is a starter and providing good production, there is no way you are playing him as a returner over his career. As a rookie, maybe (though maybe not, if you want him to focus on being a decent wide receiver! look at how vets like Armstrong and Gaffney even had some transition time with the playbook) but I don;t see a single very successful wide receiver who is taking significant snaps as a returner save Steve Smityh and Devin Hester. But Hester was PRIMARILY drafted for that production. Steve MSith drastically reduced those duties as he got banged up more, because you don;t want your staritng #1 WR to be on a return unit. So don;t count return stats, because in what scenario would Cordarrelle be spending full time at both over his career? Especially if we have a guy like Thigpen. If anything, look separately at the return stats as your hedge agains him underperforming at WR so you can then play him less at WR and dedicate him more to returns. It's an either or, not a both and.
I agree. Austin is a specialty player. Could he be another Harvin? Maybe. But specialty players tend to have a higher bust potential. For every Percy Harvin there seems to be a handful of Dexter McClusters. Bailey on the other hand just looks like a complete WR. He may not have that dynamic upside, but he's a guy that I think will come in and will contribute early and be a good WR for a long time in a Reggie Wayne mold.
I don't see his running abilities any better than Patternson's or Allen's. All three of these guys can juke like no other. He may be the fastest, pure speed-wise. Allen has the best hands and i would say Patternson has the best physical gifts of these three. Austin, from what I have seen, does't have the hands of Allen or Patterson. I think he is the fastest pure speed of the three, but the other things are just as important. He would be a good second round pick if we don't pick a WR in the 1st round and Allen and Patterson are gone, but I would like Hunter too especially if we sign Wallace or something, because he has hands like Allen's but not the legs.
welcome to the site man. I see your from Georgia, any insight on all the talent that is on that bulldog defense.?
damn, Deej, for a guy who adores what athletic QBs bring to the game, I'd have thought you'd be salivating over the idea of adding Austin. You're slipping, Dougy. Close your eyes and imagine it: Tavon Austin in the left slot; Mike Wallace split wide left; Thigpen in the slot to the right; Miller as the lone back. The very next play, without having to change personnel, we run the zone-read triple option out of the pistol with Miller as the fullback next to Tannehill and Austin at tailback behind Tanny. Mike Wallace is wide left running a vertical pulling the corner & safety with him. Tannehill reads the left DE as the first option and keeps it, runs around the left side with Tavon Awesome as the pitch option. Wallace's speed has already helped clear out space. Tannehill reads the outside linebacker and pitches it to Tavon who quickly beats a weak open-field tackle attempt and subsequently has no one within 15 yards of him. Tavon gashes the defense for a 50 yard TD. With the same personnel we could run a zone-read triple option but with a bubble-screen to Tavon replacing the pitch option. Or how 'bout a quadruple read option with Miller at fullback, Thigpen lined up behind Tannehill as the pitch option, and Austin as the pass option where Tanny can either keep it, pitch it to Thigpen, or quick pass to Austin. Can you imagine how much misdirection we could run with Austin on the field to help create defensive hesitation? How 'bout extra pre-snap motion to cause confusion like bringing Austin in motion on an end around where Tannehill can either give it to Tavon <after faking the dive to Miller> or Tanny can keep it and run the read option with either Thipgen or Miller as the pitch option. Then to top of off, Tavon is a legitimate receiver IMO, not just a running back playing receiver like McCluster. With Tavon in the slot and the entire field to work with he can be damn near uncoverable, especially on option routes and jerk routes after he and Tannehill have built up some chemistry together. The more I think about it, the more I think Austin could be one of the single greatest additions to our team this offseason.
Allen is smooth, can weave around and make some nice cuts, good combo of a cagey WR with speed/quicks- good but not great. Patterson kind of strikes me as a long legged, big receiver who is fast and kind of lowers his head and makes one good cut, then maybe another downfield if he's still going. Tavon Austin on the other hand can stutter, accelerate, cut hard, everything. Much more of a jitterbug than a one cut guy, but that's what you get if you're lucky with 5-9 170 as opposed to 6-3 220. Very slippery, electric player, really outstanding movement skills, lightning in a bottle. Look at the stutter move at :45- one of my favorite- and the quick feet, acceleration and explosion at 1:08- phenomenal. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxzPryPMB74 Tavon Austin gets a "wow". If he were available at 2a and we got a #1 who can stretch the defense in FA you change the whole offense- imagine him and Mike Wallace on the field as opposed to Hartline and Bess- huge difference. And Lamar Miller's quick feet and speed to that equation and a functional seam busting TE (Clay, Egnew or a rookie, check out Zach Sudfeld below 1:16) and you're in business. Check out Da'Rick Rogers below at :40, I like his quicks there and his speed, total package imo, one of my favorites except for the off field stuff. Anyway, Tavon Austin is electric, very hard not to like him imo. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF3BUyakyag
Bailey reminds me of Mark Clayton of the Marks Bros. A more recent comparison would be Steve Smith of Carolina, but I don't think he's as strong.
I respectfully disagree with this, Barry. Austin has plenty of receiver potential to him, and I wouldn't downgrade him as a receiver just b/c he contributes as more than just a receiver. He's not McCluster with more speed. McCluster caught just 1703 yards & 7 TDs in 4 years. Dexter had twice as many rushing yards than receiving as a senior and twice as many career rushing TDs than receiving. Austin had 3400 receiving yards and 29 receiving TDs, with 3.5 times as many receiving yards than rushing, and 5 times as many receiving TDs than rushing. I, too, wouldn't call designed 50-50 balls to him; I mean why would you need to when he has the speed to run by defenders? He'll be playing the slot, so sideline routes wouldn't really matter.... not unless we're talking about out-breaking routes from the slot where neither a linebacker, safety, nor most nickel corners have a chance to stay with him. His hands aren't terrible, and IMO there's nothing in his ability to suggest he can't run good routes, and it's not like he's been used so infrequently as a slot receiver that he has only a fundamental understanding of the position. Heck, he has 215 catches the past 2 years. I know a bunch of those are screens, but a lot of them aren't. Austin caught 11 balls for 187 yards vs LSU in 2011, the nation's #3 pass efficiency defense and #7 passing yards/game at 171.43.... and it wasn't from screens that tacked on tons of yac; it was from being a legitimate receiver. Watch Tavon find the open spot over the middle on this 4th & 4 that he houses (working the inside left slot). [video=youtube;pvLmWVn0w_A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvLmWVn0w_A[/video] 2:35 (below clip): outbreaking route to the sideline from the left slot. easy 3rd & 4 conversion. 3:10 (inside slot on the right): option route vs the linebacker that's as close to indefensible as you can get b/c of Tavon's speed & suddenness. The linebacker slips trying to stay with him. Easily converts the 3rd & 8. 8:14 (inside slot to left): why a need to go "over a linebacker" when he can do this instead for a 34 yard TD on 3rd & 15? [video=youtube;-dEHB--65kQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dEHB--65kQ[/video] 0:30 (below clip): Out-breaking route vs LSU for another easy 3rd & 4 conversion. 1:13: Jerk route vs Tyron Mathieu (left slot). Eats the honey badger up. 3:22: Why go over the top of a safety when he can run by him on a post for 72 yards? [video=youtube;bd8Y-PLYi7M]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd8Y-PLYi7M[/video] He can make plays downfield, like in this one vs Baylor (the full view replay is at 2:09). [video=youtube;kpahNSznW7A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpahNSznW7A[/video] .... or turn a 2 yard pass into an easy 44 yard gain (2:25 below) 3:10: beats the defender on the under throw [video=youtube;OwIXMSlywGw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwIXMSlywGw[/video]
That has more to do with the route than Austin's YAC ability. His intermediate receptions involved a lot a out breaking routes that carry him into the sideline, most of which caught just in front of the safety closing in. There were also a handful of short passes that required diving catches. IE: no YAC. I'm guessing the screen YAC is low b/c he caught the most in the country, likely making it the most defensively prepared for screen in the country.
