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Murder by Numbers: What do Stats Say About Pennington's Arm?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keypusher, Jan 5, 2009.

  1. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

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    As the regular season ran down I began to wonder if Pennington's arm was wearing out, as I had a vague sense that he was throwing shorter passes. I went ahead and figured out his yards per completion for each game of the year, then compared the first and second half of the year. This is what I found.

    Pennington threw 476 passes in the regular season, which is a pretty low total for a modern NFL QB starting all 16 games.

    In the first half of the year, Pennington completed 163 passes for 1,991 yards, an average of 12.2 yards per completion. If he had retained that average over a full season, he would have finished 7th among NFL starting QBs in that category.

    In the second half of the year, Pennington completed 158 passes for 1,662 yards, an average of 10.5 yards per completion. If he had retained that average over a full year he would have finished 29th among starting QBs (but still ahead of Brett Favre, believe it or not).

    In other words, his yards per completion was in the top quarter of the league in the first half of the year, but near the bottom in the second half.

    Yards per pass attempt give similar results. He averaged 8.3 YPA in the first half of the year, which would have put him second to Philip Rivers in that category over a full year, and 7.1 YPA in the second half of the year, which would put him in a tie with Shaun Hill for 16th in the league over a full year.

    His completion percentage was all but identical in the two halves of the season (67.9% in the first half versus 67.5% in the second). His TD pass rate actually went up late in the year and his INT percentage stayed low. The combination of those two factors kept his rating high, despite his big drop in YPA.

    So, bottom line, his passes were a lot shorter in the second half of the year than the first.

    One obvious explanation: arm fatigue.

    This simple analysis has a lot of shortcomings. First, I don't have any numbers that will allow me to distinguish yards that the ball is actually in the air as opposed to yards after catch gained by the receiver (as many remember, Pennington's longest pass of the year was a screen that Cobbs took 80 yards). For lack of anything better, I am assuming that YAC evens out over a year, but maybe I am wrong. Con suggested, for example, that Bess may run shorter patterns than Camarillo. After Camarillo got hurt, Bess took over as Pennington's "security blanket."

    Also, I haven't adjusted for strength of defense. I am assuming that there wasn't a significant difference in the strength of defenses we played in the two halves of the year, but I didn't check.

    Also, I didn't check to see if this effect is general among quarterbacks -- maybe all QBs throw shorter as the year goes on (especially if they are playing in bad weather). I would be very surprised if the league as a whole averages nearly two yards per completion less in the second half of the year, though.

    If I am right and Pennington's arm really does wear out over the course of a year, this may explain some of the playoff failures we've heard about (and the one we witnessed last Sunday). I don't think Pennington is incapable of playing against top defenses. He looked pretty good in the first game against the Ravens, after all. But he may be incapable of playing against top defenses late in the year -- at least if he has to throw a lot.

    I like Pennington as much as any player in football -- probaby as much as I like any athlete, period. But if his arm can't handle a full NFL year, we may need to get Henne in there sooner than I would like.
     
    adamprez2003 likes this.
  2. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Did you take into account the loss of Camarillo?

    People will point out to his ypa being excellent, and similar to other stronger armed QBs. But this is misleading in one regard. He is very efficient, which is a good thing, but that increases his YPA since he is very accurate. Now, I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but something to keep in mind when dissecting stats.
     
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  3. LikeUntoGod

    LikeUntoGod Season Ticket Holder

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    We are simply not able to make big plays. Most of our pass completions are curls or outs with little YAC. I was at the game and the Ravens were not allowing anything down the middle but they could not stop the short outs. We did have WRs open down field at times but Chad did not have the arm or really the time to hit them.

    Chad was being chased most of the time and he should have been sacked 3-5 more times. He is amazing how he gets away and completes passes.

    We really need to improve on the area from guard to guard on the OL. Like Tony said, he wants better starters and better back ups. We have the running backs to run between the tackles but not the OL.

    Our defense played well but the turnovers were too much to handle.

    If a star running back fumbles 2-3 times you set him down. The Jets made a good point about pulling Favre when he was throwing picks. When a QB is having a bad day he rarely if ever turns it around in the same game.

    Joe Flacco was 9 for 23 for 135 yards. He did not win the game for the Ravens. Chad Pennington lost it for us.

    I would have pulled Pennington after this 3rd interception. Another reason being that only Chad Henne's stronger arm gave us a chance of catching up. The game was lost anyway so why not give it a try.

    I'm a fan of Chad but the truth is the truth. Here are some passages from a survival guide I read on the way home.

    Sticking to "the plan" can get you killed. So many people force a situation to meet their plan or schedule, and end up being killed or hurt by that thinking. It's better to to let the situation form the plan, even if that might mean abandoning a schedule entirely.

    True survivors are not afraid to make U-turns. They take a cold hard look at their decisions and are not afraid to make modifications according to the situation unfolding before them.


    A old military adage is that a plan only last until the first contact is made.
     
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  4. codizzle

    codizzle New Member

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    either way u look at it big decisions coming up for the dolphins staff. chad is not going to win u guys a superbowl... is it time to try henne? chad is gonna be 35 next year. his arm is only getting weaker. with these stats that show his arm prolly cant take it a whole playoff season, is it time for Henne?
     
  5. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Chad will be 33 not 35.

    Favre is 2 years to 200.

    Grant it he's no good but there's still a few years left for Pennington.
     
  6. funkdat

    funkdat New Member

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    Nice................can you please tell us how Chad is going to age 3 years in the time span of one year.http://www.nfl.com/players/chadpennington/profile?id=PEN375096

    Also did you know Chad has taken his teams to the playoffs 4 out of 7 years.
     
  7. FinSane

    FinSane Cynical Dolphins Fan

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    in dog years you are....
     
  8. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    Bottom line is that Henne has more tools and is considered to have a higher ceiling. He dosen't have the physical limitation Pennington does. That said, we don't know when or if he'll develop the same mental aspect Pennington brings to the table.

    If Henne shows he's ready and playing at a level above Pennington then I find it hard to believe the Phins will simply give Pennington the job based on what happened this year. I would hope not.

    That said, if Henne dosen't show he's ready then we'll be fine with Pennington. He's got more positives than negatives and he's proven himself a solid starter. He's not going to carry a team but the elite level QB that can is hard to find. I believe you guys won a Super Bowl with a QB that clearly brought more negatives to the table than positives didn't you?
     
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  9. codizzle

    codizzle New Member

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    my bad. somebody on here said before that chad was 34 so i assumed he was right.

    yes he's been to the playoffs 4 times but only one year did his playoff experience produce anything good right? they made it to the championship game once?
     
  10. codizzle

    codizzle New Member

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    no we won the superbowl with a qb that brought "us" no negatives that was why he was our qb. we didnt need him to throw more than 20 times and we just needed him not to throw picks

    Dilfer just had to control the ball and not turn it over. plus we had possibly the greatest defense ever that year so dilfer and ur situation is not a great comparison
     
  11. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    As excited as I am about Henne's potential, he is not even in Chad's league mentally. It would be unfair to hope for that.

    Chad was a finalist as a Rhodes scholar. Every coach and player says he is smarter than anyone they've met. Even Dan Henning said Chad was the smartest guy in the Dolphins organization, except maybe 'you know who upstairs'... then Henning said he had to say that because 'you know who' (Parcells) might get mad otherwise. Then he laughed. Essentially, Henning thinks Chad's a genius, and all the evidence of Chad's past bears this out.

    The only evidence I have of Henne's intelligence thus far is from Sparano's interaction with Henne on NFL Network when they miked Sparano up during training camp.

    Sparano asked Henne a question, and Henne mumbled something back. He had no answer. Sparano replied "Nothin'? That's not too good for a quarterback (pause) Kinda stupid answer. I wouldn;t like to think that in four years at Michigan you learned nothin'. I know you know the fight song. I heard that."

    So...

    I am sure Henne is far from stupid... but he is also far from being like Chad mentally. Pennington is another coach on the field. Henne will be what he is, a good quarterback.
     
    alen1 likes this.
  12. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    I agree that Pennington is a very smart individual and probably one of the most mentally strong players in the game.

    However, that made his horrible decision making all that much worse on Sunday. The first pick he threw was on a 2 and 8. The second was on a 3 and 8 where we were backed up in our own territory. Both of these were forced throws into double and triple coverage on attempts of over 25 yards.

    Now if this was a desperate situation then by all means, do what you have to do. But, the score was tied during both of these plays. Why take the risk and just wing it up there when Pennington knows he doesn't have a cannon on his shoulder?

    Like I said, I like Chad and believe he is very smart. But Sunday was a complete meltdown for him that seemingly could have been avoided. I'm not calling for Henne to start next season or forgetting all the good things Pennington did this year. But it still pisses me off that that's how our season ended.
     
    Bpk likes this.
  13. phineas64

    phineas64 Season Ticket Holder

    This is pretty much what we need Chad to do - play smart, don't make mistakes. Game manager.
     
  14. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Please... dude was getting harrassed all day, and a couple of throws to smurf receivers were a tad high- Chad had a bad day and bad luck- and his a** pounded all day by the Ravens defense, he's probably sitting on one of those rubber donuts right now. His arm looked better this year than I've seen in maybe the last three or four. I can't believe all this talk after the guy was #2in NFL MVP voting- borderline comical. You didn't like the offense? Well then you should be all for us drafting/getting in FA what we really need- a stud #1 WR and some solid OL help.
     
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  15. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Question: When did the team lose Smiley and Camarillo?
     
  16. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    How quick we turn on a player around here. One playoff loss after winning the AFC East and we're right back to the "Chad can't win a big game" talk. The Jets game wasn't a big game? All those wins down the stretch weren't big games?

    Chad made some mistakes Sunday. But some credit is due to the incredible Ravens defense, and not so much on Chad's arm.
     
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  17. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    I agree with this, Chad did very well this year and we shouldn't dump all over him because of one bad game in which the OL was horrendous, which made the running game nonexistent, and facing a very good Ravens D. Yes he made some mistakes, but the loss isn't his alone.

    With that said, Chad is who he is and he does have some limitations. He's never going to be a gunslinger and he has durability issues. This is only the 2nd year that he's played a full season in his career, so we need Henne to be ready to step in in the event that Penny can't go. But that doesn't mean that Penny shouldn't be viewed as the starter next year, right now he's the best man for the job and we should ride him until we have a better option.

    This was only year one of the rebuilding process, we have a long way to go and more changes need to be made, but having a winning QB who is a very good game manager behind center will help our youngsters mature faster. It was a tough loss on Sunday, but it was a team loss.
     
  18. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I dont think the question is wether Chad can win a BIG game or not. The question is ............Can he win a Super Bowl. Big difference. After our last 2 games, the difference is obvious to me. THe jest are NOT a playoff team, and Balt definately IS. We beat the jest and lost to Balt. We beat ONE PLAYOFF TEAM this year, and they were 8- 8. We only played 2 teams that made the playoffs, and the other one has beaten us TWICE.

    I am NOT..........BASHING PENNY. I have ALOT of respect for him. BUT.... He is what he is. He got us out of a BIG HOLE this year.
     
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  19. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Surrounding talent also needs to be taken into account, that loss isn't all on him, the OL was responsible for Penny seeing all that pressure. Hell, some people here even commented that Jake Long was out there yelling at his fellow OLmen for their poor play. Because they did poorly, the running game wasn't effective and Penny was pressured into making mistakes. Without Thomas and without Smiley, this OL isn't the same one that we had earlier this year. :wink2:

    One thing to keep in mind about the Jets fans and NY media is that they are super impatient and quick to point the finger. Penny didn't have great surrounding talent there either and he was the scapegoat for everything that went wrong in NY. That doesn't mean that he can't win the SB, it means that he didn't have the surrounding talent to help him get there and have a chance to win the big one. :up:
     
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  20. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Pennington's arm looked great on the TD to Ginn against the Jets
     
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  21. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    True, but that was only one play. Pennington doesn't make that pass with regularity, it's not his game. If there is a criticism of Penny it's that he doesn't have the arm strength to consistently make the deep throws. Occasionally he'll make one and people will say "see, Penny can throw deep", but our whole gameplan is designed to take advantage of his dink and dunk game. You can see him putting all of his energy and his whole body into throws that people like Favre make look effortless. That's my biggest gripe with the guy, I think he handicaps our big play potential, but he's still the best QB for this offense at this time. If we can run the ball more effectively, Penny will be even better than he was this year.
     
  22. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And it looked like crap on Sunday..
     
  23. LikeUntoGod

    LikeUntoGod Season Ticket Holder

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    Give Chad Pennington a decent running game and the game would have been different.

    We need to be stronger from guard to guard.
     
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  24. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Smiley and Donald Thomas would have done a lot for us towards winning that game.
     
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  25. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    You need to read the whole post before you start talking.

    Yea he was def getting harassed all day because our OL had the worst game of the season against their most difficult opponent. However, getting harassed is no reason to start throwing up hail marys when the game is tied! There was no desperation what so ever to make those first 2 picks.

    Someone as smart as Chad knows that its always better to throw it away instead of forcing a play into double or triple coverage. Why he didnt just throw those first 2 picks away is a mystery. Maybe his nerves got to him, who knows.
     
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  26. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    Dilfer brought you "no negatives"?

    Come on bro.
    He was clearly one of, if not THE weakest link on your team at that point.
    You won the Super Bowl in spite of Dilfer and because of that defense you brought up. I have reservations about the weaknesses Pennington has but he is a starting caliber QB and one with more talent than Dilfer had hands down.
    I mean come on, Dilfer is one of the only Super Bowl winning QB's ever to be cut the year after winning the big game.
    That speaks volumes.

    It's why I offered that rebuttal to you in response to your assertion that it wouldn't be possible to build a team around Pennington good enough to win a Super Bowl. You guys did it with a QB with less talent. It certainly isn't the blueprint to winning a super bowl but a complete team can overcome certain weak spots.
     
  27. DrAstroZoom

    DrAstroZoom Canary in a Coal Mine Luxury Box

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    A couple of things to consider:

    Pennington's velocity and depth has improved this year as a result of altering his mechanics to produce more leg drive. Unfortunately, when you throw as you are being plastered or right before you are about to be, you lose that leg drive. Three of Pennington's four interceptions were under those circumstances Sunday. He should have eaten the ball.

    As far as Pennington's durability is concerned, I'm not that worried about Pennington's health this year being an aberration. Rather, I think it's the start of a new trend -- one the entier roster is enjoying as a result of our vastly improved conditioning program.
     
  28. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

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    Reading through the comments, a few things came up.

    Did I take into account the loss of Camarillo and Smiley? When did they get hurt?

    No, I did not. I didn't know how. Camarillo got hurt in the second NE game. Smiley got hurt a week later against the Rams.

    There has been a lot of back and forth about the Ravens playoff game. I did not analyze that game at all; I looked at regular season games only.

    That sounds plausible, but it does not explain Pennington's shorter passes in the eight games preceeding the playoffs.

    It would be useful to see if this pattern of shorter passes later in the year also happened with the Jets. If I ever find the time, I'll try to repeat the analysis for 2006 (post-surgery) and 2002 (pre-surgery).

    A lot of people have said, and I agree, that it is amazing that a QB with two rotator cuff surgeries is playing football at all. Unfortunately it seems that the two surgeries may be too much even for someone with as much heart and drive as Pennington to overcome.
     
  29. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    How many teams are starting all 5 first team O-linemen in December/January? - not many. Having better depth rather than relying on not getting injuries is the better way to go.
     
  30. Dolphin1184

    Dolphin1184 Member

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    The decision is already made. Penny is the starter.
     

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