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Mission impossible: Duplicating Super Bowl success

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The_Dark_Knight, Oct 22, 2011.

  1. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well I've been saying this for how long? No one wants to listen to me. Maybe someone will listen to Jason Cole.
     
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  2. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

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    Stereotypes are made to be broken .There is always a first time.I think it would depend on the age of the coach involved.I am sure someone like Gruden or Tomlin will eventually win a SB with two teams.

    I will guarantee it will happen eventually .
     
  3. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    An evidently false argument doesn't become true just because Jason Cole repeats it.
     
  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Hiring Super Bowl-winning coach offers no guarantees of NFL titles

    Then there was this article back in 2009 by Don Banks

    In fact, the odds actually FAVOR hiring a Super Bowl LOSING coach.
     
    PhinPhanatic likes this.
  5. gamblerx

    gamblerx New Member

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    Jeff Fisher?
     
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  6. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Sometimes some of you guys remind me of the proverbial child who's told by his mother not to touch the stove because it's hot...but you gotta touch it anyway!!!

    Super Bowl winning coaches don't win Super Bowls with different teams...period! More often than not, they end up with losing records.

    You children just go right ahead and touch the stove and when you get burned, I don't wanna hear you cry.

    You were told it was hot!!
     
  7. gamblerx

    gamblerx New Member

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    Depends on the situation. If I tell you that Jon Gruden took the head coaching job for the Pittsburgh Steelers, he'll win the Super Bowl less than 3 seasons.
     
  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You know, time is my ally here and I'll be vindicated. Whether it takes, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years or 5.

    Let the Dolphins hire a former Super Bowl winning coach...let Ross hire Bill Cowher, or Jon Gruden or even our arch nemesis Bill Belichick as our next head coach and at the end of each of the season, I'll post in this forum, "Hey how about that Super Bo....oh wait, we didn't win, did we?"

    One of these days you guys are gonna listen to me and realize the old guy here knows what he's talking about.
     
  9. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I promise not to cry if you promise not to repeat the same silly argument again and again even though you've been proven wrong countless times. I admire your tenacity but it gets tiresome to read the same logical fallacy over and over and over.
     
    ssmiami likes this.
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I've been proven wrong??? REALLY????

    Tell me Vendigo...which coach has won Super Bowl with two different teams again?

    Game, Set, Match...

    I haven't been proven wrong.
     
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  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Tell you guys what, here's how confident I am.

    I'll wager a 1 year ban from thephins.com.

    If the Dolphins do indeed hire Bill Cowher or John Gruden or any other former Super Bowl winning head coach, and the Dolphins do win a Super Bowl with that coach...period. Not within so many years of his hiring, but wins a Super Bowl PERIOD, I'll subject myself to a one year ban from the forum.

    But if you lose and it doesn't come to pass, you subject yourselves to the same ban.

    Any takers?

    MODS, I'm serious here. If there's any takers make any annotations you need to.
     
  12. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    There was this girl in my math class at school, who, when asked to calculate her chances to win the lottery, emphatically replied with "fifty-fify": either you win or you don't. When the ensuing hilarity eventually died down, she adamantly refused to acknowledge that there was anything wrong with her logic and today she's into politics. Go figure.
     
  13. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think part of the problem is that when a coach leaves a Superbowl Title winning team he takes control of the next franchise, has 100% say in the roster, etc, they have a lot of leverage in their next job. I wouldn't give Cowher or Gruden final say on who we pick up or draft, they should have final say on who plays though. I don't know if they are the best guys for the job but dismissing someone because they've had success is about the dumbest thing I've ever even heard of.
     
    aesop likes this.
  14. PigMuffin

    PigMuffin New Member

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    Still with this nonsense? And he still doesn't understand the Fallacy in his argument. Anyone see that south park episode where jonnie Cochran uses the "chewbacca defense" in court.
     
  15. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I think it's unfair to lob Vermeil in with the others. He went to the superbowl and lost. then he went to another team and won the superbowl.

    and Parcells won multiple superbowls with the G-men, came back and might have won the superbowl with patsies if it wasn't for the heroics of D Howard.

    So, if you had the choice to take one of these coaches knowing it could get you to the superbowl with a chance (win or lose) to win the big one, would you really be stupid enough to say no?
     
  16. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    THis clinches it. Bring in Butch Davis :shifty:
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think when you have coaches that have been to superbowls with different teams, the argument that it can't be done loses steam imo, because when you can get to two superbowls with 2 different teams, you obviously have the grit, the work ethic, and the passion to achieve the ultimate big game, which is the theory usually used asmto why it can't be done in the first place, Then the game itself is just a game, it can go either way based on talent and variables, not whether the coach has some mysterious curse hanging over them keeping them from functioning mentally..
     
  18. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    There have been only what 46 Super Bowls played? That means only 46 coaches have been Super Bowl winners. Less than that given that several have repeated. Now how many men have coached in the NFL during that time span? I have no idea but it is surely a big number. You can safely say that only a small percentage of NFL head coaches have ever won a Super Bowl, period. This argument saying that because they have done it before they'll never do it again has no substance. History says that the odds of any man you hire winning a Super Bowl are very low. To use a sample size of 12 men out of the scores who have coached in the NFL during the Super Bowl era is silly. You hire the best coach you can find, bottom line.
     
  19. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    Why exactly would we need to listen to Jason Cole? Or Don Banks? Or any one of probably dozens of individuals who have notated that in the past.

    The fact that it hasn't been done isn't proof that it can't (or won't) be done, especially given the size of the sample and the simple fact that it's been done in other sports.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    So any takers on the wager or are you guys going to just keep sitting around whistling Dixie? Because that's all I'm hearing. :words:

    If you guys are soooooo confident a former Super Bowl winning head coach like Cowher or Gruden can win a Super Bowl with our team...and you guys are sooooooo tired of hearing my argument, SOMEONE...ANYONE....JUMP!!!

    MAKE THE WAGER!!!

    Dont be scared. Be a man! Surprise yourself!!
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    aren't you coming home soon from over there?
     
  22. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    That's a ridiculous wager. The odds of any coach winning a Super Bowl are very low. You're trying to prove a point with a wager that has little risk for you and still won't mean anything.
     
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  23. Hobiesailor

    Hobiesailor Season Ticket Holder Club Member


    There is a saying that goes around in Science circles that centers around the causes of results

    "Correlation does not equal Causation"

    meaning, that just because something correlates to a result, such as 'Coaches who have won a Super Bowl have not won another on with a second team', does not mean that the event caused the result. For example, I drink Sobe Lizard Fuel drinks everyday, I have never had cancer, Sobe Lizard Fuel prevents cancer! Now we can see that this is utterly ridiculous. There are other reasons why I haven't had cancer such as, no family history of it, not old enough to have developed one, ect. Drinking Sobe was not the cause, but it correlated.

    With Super Bowl coaches, other factors have kept them from winning another super bowl. Giving them total control, not finding the right quaterback, ect. Them winning the super bowl was not the cause. Only a correlation.
     
  24. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    If we hire say, Gruden or Cowher, I cant believe it will actually make you happy to root against them winning a Super Bowl just to stick it up our collective.......
     
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  25. Mrtree

    Mrtree Juan Huron's agent

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    God is love
    Love is blind
    Therefore we can conclude that God is Ray Charles.
     
  26. PigMuffin

    PigMuffin New Member

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    No person has ever won the Florida state lottery more than once therefore it is impossible for somebody who has won the state lottery to win it again if he continues playing it. If you don't believe me I will make you a wager. If within the next five years someone wins it twice I will leave the site. If a different person wins it each week I win and you have to forfeit your account

    Any takers? Cmon be a man and prove me wrong
     
    Ohio Fanatic likes this.
  27. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    Give one of those guys Andrew Luck and see where it goes from there.
     
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  28. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Different fallacy
     
  29. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Glad Indy didn't think like you when no Black coach had every won a superbowl....
     
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  30. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Ill take that...
     
  31. NaboCane

    NaboCane Banned

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    Bull****. There's no physical law that prevents a HC from winning SBs with two different teams. Might just as well go all-in on the immutable power of horseshoes or four-leaf clovers.

    It's an interesting stat. That's all.
     
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  32. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Wow. Simply ridiculous.

    You want to know the truth? The odds are heavily in your favor should anyone be foolish enough to take it.

    Not because a coach who has won a superbowl has a worse chance as a coach who hasn't, but because IT'S ****ING HARD TO WIN A SUPERBOWL!

    Just because the media is crazy enough to report fallacies as data doesn't mean you have to be crazy enough to buy into it.
     
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  33. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Yup I might too. What nonsense, 40 years of statistics, the sheer difficulty of winning a SB in the first place, and somehow this is the all empowering statistic that proves everything? Phil Jackson retired undefeated in any series that he won the first game. He came four points away from losing that. Do you realize what four points is? Four points is a ticky-tack foul on Pau Gasol in that game 7 leaving him in foul trouble early.

    The ebb and flow of history and the odds are so fluid so dynamic that you may see two HCs that have won SBs before win them again in the next five years. There is nothing in the real odds, the actual difficulties you have to overcome that says they can't do it.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Yea, more than likely in December. Mrs TDK needs a break from me being gone all the time...not to mention her parents aren't doing so well.
     
  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Hey, "you guys" are the ones that want a coach (Cowher/Gruden) that history has clearly demonstrated will NOT win a Super Bowl with a different team.

    Now I don't know about you guys, winning games is great, but if you're not holding up the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season, you failed...and many folks here say my logic is failed...that it can be done, so...

    The Wager. :up:
     
  36. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Does Sobe Lizard Fuel win Super Bowls????
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Are you kidding me? That statement is as stupid as a football bat!! I've been a die hard Miami Dolphins fan, probably since before you were born.

    I bleed aqua and coral...and will bleed aqua and coral until the day I die. Do you really think I'd root against my Dolphins? :pity:
     
  38. PigMuffin

    PigMuffin New Member

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    If ignorance is bliss this thread must be Eden.
     
  39. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    *DING DING DING DING*

    We have a taker!!!

    Gonna miss you Nappy :tongue2:
     
    Nappy Roots likes this.
  40. PigMuffin

    PigMuffin New Member

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    Yep. Going by ops logic, carolina were crazy to draft cam newton because no black qb has ever won a super bowl with the original team that drafted him. I'm right I'm right. Look it up
     

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