Just thinking back a few years, and I want to look at the concept of 'mirage seasons'. i.e. seasons that give you a false perspective of a team and make the fans over rate the team. We have had two classic examples of mirage seasons in recent memory with Saban and Sparano. I would also argue that Cam Cameron's season whilst bad wasn't as horrific as his W-L record warranted. In retrospect the keys to failure were apparent if we knew what to look for. I remember being uneasy about Saban and Sparano winning something like 80% of games decided by less than 7 points when history suggests that teams will be 50-50 in those games. I didn't diagnose the other problems that doomed them to being inadequate NFL HCs until after the event. So what are the criteria we can use to assess whether Philbin is an heir to Don Shula, not an heir of George Wilson? 1) Record in close games: I've done some serious number crunching on the topic and I have yet to find any evidence that anyone has figured out any magical ju-ju for being better than 50% in close games. On that score Ohilbin scores well in that his record in low margin games was negative, which indicates that over time it should come back up. The other corollary to this is that if your team is a genuine contender you should be beating the scrubs by 14+ points. 2) Development of young players: Too early to say anything. I dp like that we are one of the youngest teams in the NFL. , and we have done that by choice. IMO this is the single best indicator of ongoing success, 3) Discipline. The 1970s under John Madden are about the only team I can think of who were successful despite the penalties. I expect a team to be consistently successful if it is in the bottom third of the league in terms of penalties given up. 4) Dynamic plays. This is something that I find hard to properly define. Making a 4th down converson, Interceptions, 20+ yard plays, making or stopping 3rd and shorts etc. I want to see a positive ratio Again it is about doing it consistently. It is one of the things I love about watching games of the 1970s Dolphins - they grind grimd grind and then sudenly Paul Warfield makes a 50 yard reception or Jake Scott takes an interception. At the moment our hopes are ahead of our proofs. So what are the criteria you look at to work out if Philbin will be the real deal in 2013 or not? Nailing my colors to the mast: I think the Phins will be improved in 2013, but 2013 is the season to develop the talent we have and it will be 2014 onwards that we will see the proof of Philbin.
Fourth quarter comebacks would be a specific one of mine, the good teams find a way to win when they're down late in the game. I don't expect them to win every game when they're getting beat, but there has to be signs of what a team is like when it faces adversity. Tannehill and the offense's progress, or not, will have a big impact on how we do in this criteria, but it's also impacted by the coaching and the coach's philosophy. I looked for it in the Henne years, but it never really happened. A lot of that was down to Henne, but some of has to be laid at the feet of Sparano and the coaching. Like you though, I'm hopeful this year, more than I've been for a while. I just hope it's not another false dawn...
I don't think its as complicated as all that. You need a coach and a QB, each with certain traits/abilities. Coach: - Smart - Not afraid to step on the gas - Controls the locker room - Adapts and adjusts - Ability to develop players - Leader QB: - Smart - Can make all the throws - Confident - Driven to succeed - Driven to improve - Leader Once you have those 2 things, its harder to not be a good team than it is to be a good one. Its why I'm pretty confident this year....we have those two things.
Holy Smoke, Pauly...George Wilson, Paul Warfield, Jake Scott....you must be as old as I am.... Seriously, There are similarities and perhaps this group might have more in the fire right now (before the season) than that group did before the season. Philbin has qualities that are similar to Shula's. I see this year as the year we start to look like a winner. We'll win some games we shouldn't and lose some we shouldn't but I don't think this will be the year we set the league on fire. There are too many pieces, yet again, that have to come together all at once for this to be that season. I do like the way the structure of this team is being laid out by Philbin. He's slowly turning everything into HIS team...another sign of a good coach.... But we'll have to wait until the wins begin before we go too far in praising what Philbin is doing...
I came away very impressed with what Philbin and Tannehill did in their first seasons but let's face it, it was only one year and it was played in a pressure free environment. More talent tends to bring more pressure from the outside and more egos to deal with on the inside. Tannehill won't have Long and Bush to handle the leadership duties, Philbin is going from a coach viewed as handicapped by a lack of talent to a coach viewed as having benefited from a major offseason spending spree. Neither of them have "rookie" to fall back on, both of them will have to alter their approaches and improve their performance considerably.
Agree with FinD, it's mostly about the coach and QB. Actually if the QB is good enough, you don't even need more than a decent coach. So what I would look for more than anything is, do we have the franchise QB. Once you have that, you're always in the playoff hunt. There'll be good and bad years, but the range of those will be higher, more in the 7-12 win range than in the 9-5 win range you're more likely to get w/o a QB. And when I say I look at the QB, I don't mean doing something as stupid and simplistic as just comparing rookie QBRs. I look for whether he has the physical and mental traits that make him likely to succeed. RT is off the charts in those categories. (I chuckle at those comparisons to Henne. If you can't see the difference...well I guess you just can't see it) His odds of success are extremely high and odds of failure are extremely low. For him to fail he'd almost have to succumb to injuries to his arms, leg or concussions. But that's the same risk for most any QB. (In this offense it may actually be less than most). Obviously that doesn't mean that I'm making SB reservations, but I do believe that absent injury we'll be a team that is a legitimate and consistent contender for years. How far we make it will depend on the development of the rest of the team, luck, etc.
Win/loss record. That'll give him the whole year to prove whether he's the real deal in 2013, or not. No excuses.
One thing that was only partially brought up so far is the time it will take for them to gel. I am preparing for a slow start and a good finish. They might have to learn to play together before it works. The slow start might be camouflaged by beating Cleveland in the opener, though. I wont be surprised with a win there.
To me, you know it when you see it. Unless you have a franchise Qb, getting your butt kicked for most of a game to then mount a 4th qtr comeback win for most of your wins chances are good it's just a horseshoe stuffed up your *** so to speak. Good teams just beat the snot out of the other team, like the Ravens whipping our butts consistently, that is what a good team looks like.
