You have got to be kidding me. That, or maybe you don't actually watch the games, I don't know. No offense, but that sounds like the response of someone who has a restricted view dominated by statistical analysis and fails to see any nuance of what's actually going on, that which eyeballs provide. Is there a stat for "WR way the f*** open deep" throws? Maybe that stat would give a bit more insight as to how efficient, or inefficient, Tannehill is with his deep passes.
And there are few players where this kind of speed can change the game.. Listen I'm not saying KB is wrong saying that he's overpaid, but this is football and the mind of the player matters, this kind of speed can absolutely affect a defenders position or thought process.
I'm focused on that because that was the very specific issue to which I was responding when you stepped in claiming I am missing the point. You continue to say that even though you are apparently completely oblivious to the point to which I was responding. The bigger picture issue is that our passing game is no more open than last year. It is arguably less open because we have been less successful on deep passes and there is no evidence that we have been appreciably more successful on short passes. The focus on WR TDs arose because that is literally the only objective data to suggest notable improvement beyond just the expected development of Tannehill. And I have responded to that point by saying that WR TDs, as distinguished from other TDs, is not a meaningful stat to point to, especially when the increase in WR Tds is accompanied by lower red zone efficiency.
Don't injure yourself contorting into a position in which you can pat Wallace on the back. That is a crazy stretch. Wallace started in the slot on the other side and went straight out 5 yards past the LOS and stopped. No defender that even looked at him had any impact on that play. http://www.miamidolphins.com/multim...eception/0bd3f0b9-5d4f-436d-bb04-1311cad054f3
Uhm, how about more passes, especially in the red zone. Tannehill has already thrown more red zone passes this year than all of last year. And he has improved some since he was a raw rookie. As mentioned before, if you exclude his first 5 starts as a rookie, in which he had just 2 TD passes, his TD% is not much higher than last year. And some of the difference is just happenstance -- in just the last 3 games he has 3 YAC TDs (Hartline and Wallace last week and Clay against SD) that he had virtually none of last year. And it is a silly stretch to claim that they were caused by any special effect Wallace has on defensive spacing.
Ahhh. Not claiming anything except they're getting more points from the passing game this year. How did we get into the red-zone so much this year? Ahhh!
Uhhh, sure. The other words aside, our lack of success going deep is most attributable to the throws of Ryan Tannehill. Don't let blind allegiance to statistics cloud you from the truth.
That's mostly about field position and turnovers. The offense is actually averaging fewer yards per drive this year (26.85 compared to 29.31 last year) and has a lower drive success rate (DSR) (.643 this year compared to .661 last year).
Again, mostly due to field position and turnovers. The offense is actually averaging fewer yards per drive this year (26.85 compared to 29.31 last year) and has a lower drive success rate (DSR) (.643 this year compared to .661 last year).
Yds per drive is about the same in the numbers I have seen (26.2 this yr vs 26.8 last year). And what's a successful drive in DSR? Our scoring % (drives ending in a score) was 27.4% last year, but 32% this year.
And it doesn't mean he was. In fact, there is no evidence at all to suggest he was. It was a 5 yd curl by Wallace. How much safety reaction are you claiming there was to Wallace that wouldn't have happened for another receiver? And if the argument is that every S is qualking in his boots about Wallace's deep speed, there'd logically be less tendency for the safety to go charging in to stop a 5 yd curl than there'd be for a slower receiver.
I always love the blind allegiance to stats comments. It's like when you trust your eyes, you see what you want to see as opposed to what is actually happening.
And it doesn't mean he wasn't...So what are you saying then, that elite speed in one of your two starting receivers does not change defensive alignment?
The numbers I stated came from Football Outsiders. What is your source? DSR measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Not whole drives, but drive series. The scoring % improvement is likely due to forcing more turnovers and better field position IMO.
What I'm saying is that the impact is not nearly as big as most of you want to believe. The biggest impact a player has on the game is when he touches the football. This idea that "creating space" has this large impact is baloney, because it means absolutely nothing unless the player who touches the football actually makes a play. There is a reason the quarterback is the single most impactful player on a football team. He touches the ball every snap. A great wide receiver may touch it 7 times out of 80 plays.
If you are trying to make the argument that Wallace deserves some credit for Hartline's TD on the other side of the field, it seems to me that you bear the burden of proof on that. Saying the S may have reacted differently doesn't cut it. Especially when all he did was a 5 yd curl. If the defense was so concerned about his deep speed, it would have had little, if any, reaction to his 5 yd curl. On the bigger issue, I am saying that such speed has a small impact on defensive alignment, if any. I have been paying attention to this for years and have seen virtually no difference in how teams play defense with or without a Wallace or Ginn. There have been A LOT of plays this year where there has been no deep safety help on Wallace. And I see no evidence that Wallace being on the field opens up the underneath routes more for others. Tannehill's ypa (which accounts for completion % and distance of completions) this year is virtually identical to last year's. Do you have any evidence that Wallace's speed does change DB alignment? Any at all?
Do you have a specific stat that you can point me to, one that shows how often WRs are clearly open on deep patterns and the QB either underthrows them for no completion, the ball is actually caught for a limited gain or the play results in a touchdown? Maybe it's called "deep ball efficiency" stat or something like that. Seriously, if one exists please respond back with a link to it, I'm curious. Other than that- your steadfast refusal to give Mike Wallace much credit at all for his production and how often he has done a big part of his job, ie getting open deep, is telling. The QB has failed to deliver a solid deep ball so often, yet you don't seem to want to acknowledge this. You'd just rather try to convince everyone, including yourself, that you're right. I think that the last quarter of this year and next year will show that you're actually quite wrong.
PFF tracks deep passing by receiver. Wallace has been targeted on 24 deep balls. 7 were deemed catchable, 5 were caught and 2 were dropped. Hartline has caught 5 of the 10 deep balls thrown to him. Last year, 21 of Tannehill's 48 deep passes were deemed catchable (43.75%). This year it is 13 of 36 (36%). Both fo those percentages are generally in the middle 35 percentile of starting QBs, so roughly average. When you are talking about deep pass completion percentages, you are talking about pretty small sample sizes and you often see big differences from QB to QB from year to year. For example, Kapernick dropped from a league best 60% in 2012 to 45% in 2013, RG3 dropped from 50% in 2013 to 29.5% this year and Newton dropped from 52.4 to 28.6% this year. Meanwhile, Wilson's deep pass completion % jumped from 48.4 to a league best 60 (both very good), and Christian Ponder increased from 25 to 42%. I don't think the QB is likely to have greatly improved or gotten worse at it from year to year -- there's a lot of circumstance that goes into it.
Thank you. You mentioned at the end circumstances that go into the whole deep ball efficiency issue- exactly which stats measure those exact circumstances? The most telling part of your post is the second sentence and the first four words of the third sentence. That bombshell should drop almost anyone in their tracks if they want to blame Wallace for a lack of deep ball efficiency. 7 catchable deep balls out of 24 thrown? That's way worse than I would have imagined. Not 7 out of 24 caught mind you, 7 out of 24 catchable.
Oh, I'm sure it will continue to add support to my view. What you will see is Ryan get better and others such as Hartline make small improvements, but you will see Wallace continue to be a limited receiver that doesn't fight for the ball and his numbers will continue to trend down.
You do realize that a lot of throws Ryan has made to Mike were made to a spot where he was supposed to be but wasn't there because he doesn't consistently run his routes the same? Explain to me why Ben Roethlisberger threw it to him 31 times with only 8 of them catchable last year?
Not sure, unlike you I'd actually have to watch the plays to form an opinion. I could form a crappy just going by stats, but what's the point in doing that?
You'd rather watch tape and ignore the stats so you can just tell me what you want to see as opposed to what is actually happening. It's fine if you think a quarterback should hit the receiver in stride on a 50+ yard throw. Just say it. You just won't ever find a quarterback that can do that consistently. I'd much rather have a receiver that is going to be physical and fight for the ball. It's a lot easier to find a receiver that can do that than it is to find a quarterback that consistently hits a receiver in stride on long throws. Also, both of Mike Wallace's dropped passes were on perfectly placed passes that hit him in stride....one against New Orleans and the last one against Carolina.
Who said anything about ignoring the stats? Also, do you plan on answering my question about whether a specific stat is available? You can refer to post #260 in this thread if the question slipped your mind.
Because as lousy as some of Rts throws have been, I expected more than 7 out of 24 being catchable, especially given how wide open Wallace has been on multiple occasions.
Have you not learned yet? If it cannot be put into a stat it never happened on the football field. I cannot believe there is even a debate whether our WRs are greatly improved from last year. 2012 was Hartline, Bess, and a whole lot of nothing. Our 3rd most productive WR was rookie Matthews with a whopping 11 catches. 2013 is Wallace, Hartline, Gibson, & Matthews all contributing significantly. Is there really any doubt whether this year's group is much better? Granted, Wallace appears to be overpaid so far relative to his production. That is usually the case with big money UFA deals, but he is significant contributor nonetheless.
Fair enough...no I don't have any tangible evidence of how great speed on a perimeter receiver can affect the mentality and alignment of a defender..just thru experience, and the knowledge of playing and following football and the players all my life..and I would think some common sense.. A safety ultimate responsibility is to protect from big plays happening..that's why the named the position..if your telling me that the safeties in play do not adjust their position and mentality when they know an elite speed, pretty well rounded receiver is on the field, I'll just agree to disagree.
I'm sure there are people who track things such as "how often a receiver is hit in stride when he has a 2+ yard cushion on his defender going in a vertical route" and such, but I don't have those numbers available. I think you would probably be surprised that the % of receivers who are hit in stride with a 2+ yard cushion is a lot lower than you are thinking it will be. Most teams teach their QBs to just throw it up so the receiver can make a play on it.
Wanna hear something really funny, stats are now getting some folks to rethink their position on Andrew luck.. Lol
i agree with your last statement and I do believe that is something that Ryan has not accomplished yet in his development.
As they should. The stats are showing that there are some clear limitations to Andrew's game. There were some stats from college that showed this as well.
I disagree. He has shown that he is very capable at throwing the ball to where Mike Wallace can make a play on it. Mike just very rarely leaves his feet or gets physical with a DB to make a play.
I'd have to see that Saints pass, I don't recall it specifically. The Carolina pass- I think that Wallace should have caught it, but I also don't think that it was as easy a catch as you make it out to be. You can see it here at 3:15: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0t44xgKLse4 That was in some ways an impressive 65 yard or so throw by RT, but he threw it late once again and it was a bit behind Wallace, who tried to adjust for it. Could Wallace have caught that ball? Heck yes. But I think that you are reaching here if you want to call that a perfectly placed pass. RT waited too long- he waited so long that a ball that traveled 65 yards in the air was underthrown- if he threw the ball sooner it's a touchdown. It takes 2 to tango- RT threw it late, it wasn't a great throw, but still Wallace had a solid chance to catch it. Don;t forget that the ball being thrown late and short allowed the DB to make up ground and get in Wallace's way. That's on Tannehill- Wallace got behind the defense with 20 seconds to go and his team down by 4, let's not forget that either. I'll say this for RT- that 65 yard throw showed off a pretty solid arm. What I'm waiting for, and what I think will happen, is that RT and Wallace will do a much better job of synching up and next year they will be a much more lethal deep ball combo.
