The last two games have been wildly more positive and productive than the rest of his season, they're hardly blemish-free examples of something that would justify Wallace. The Panthers game had two huge drops, and the Jets game was colored by a reception that wasn't something you're are likely to see repeated anytime soon. Mike Wallace doesn't fail, he can only be failed.
Even with Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace was targeted 31 times on deep balls last year and caught 6. His catch rate was 19.4% on passes 20+ yards down the field. This year, his catch rate is 20.8%, so it is actually up some from last year (25 targets, 5 receptions). Last year, 8 of 31 were considered to be catchable passes. He had 6 receptions and 2 drops. So, 26% of Ben's throws to Mike last year down the field were catchable. This year, 7 of 24 are considered to be catchable passes. He has 5 receptions and 2 drops. So, 28% of Ryan's throws have been catchable. Bottom line. The guy has been targeted on 56 throws of greater than 20 yards over the past two years, and he has 11 receptions on those throws. Catching the ball down the field is not his greatest strength, because one of his weaknesses is tracking the ball in the air and making a play on it. Essentially, you have to put it in a bucket for him to catch it down the field. His biggest strength is running shallow crosses underneath coverage where he doesn't have to track the ball or try to make an over the shoulder grab. Those are really the only two things you can really game plan for Mike to do. He may run other routes, but he runs them so poorly that he might as well not be in the game for those plays.
So you credit the increase in WR touchdown production to Mike Wallace instead of recognizing that the improvements that Ryan Tannehill has made in his decision making and ball placement have much more to do with it. Even with the latter, this is little more than a regression to the mean. Miami has gotten below average TD production from the WRs for years now. It was going to improve at some point due to simple regression to the mean phenomenon.
OMG. No, I am not attributing it to better ball placement when he still has issues there. You wanted some statistical proof. I gave it to you. It was in response to yours and others comments about completions being about the same. I was responding to you. If that doesn't prove anything to you, then your argument is really bad. If you don't want to accept that, then there is nothing that will prove it to you. You will just believe what you want. That's all there is. Yeah it's all due to ball placement. You're funny.
Regression to the mean has more to do with it, but Ryan's improvements have a lot more effect than Mike Wallace.
How exactly is Wallace dramatically improving the number of TDs? He only has 3. Most of the team's other TDs passes have been short passes in the red zone, an area in which Wallace's theoretical field stretching abilities are irrelevant. And the Dolphins have actually been less efficient in the red zone (TD %) this year than last. The reason we have more passing TDs is because our short-yardage running game is an atrocity. We have 7 rushing TD, compared to 15 last year. And as previously mentioned, we are throwing 7-8 times more per game. In 12 games this year Tannehill already has more red zone passing attempts than he had in 16 last year.
Seriously. That's all you have?? You just said to someone that they were shifting blame when they mentioned some issues with his ball placement and now you come here saying it's because of better placement, which is a joke. Who's shifting now? I responded to your argument and your weaker statistical proof. You are now just creating a merry-go-round from hell. Any statistical proof which can possibly be given has been and it's been in response to your weaker statistical proof. There's also been pictures which speaks more than a thousand words. I must jump off this merry-go-round now. Rock on again.
That defensive alignment for the Jets in that picture is very atypical. Teams have not been playing the safeties much, if any, further back this year than last. Not sure what the down, distance and time was for that play but it is clearly a passing situation. And it seems a stretch to claim that it is Wallace that caused them to play the safeties so deep when the S on Hartline's side is 17 yards off the LOS.
This is starting to go in circles. You, among others kept mentioning there's proof in the completion percentages and I previously explained why that is not good enough to measure the improvement or regression with the passing game and or if Wallace has an effect on the other players and the teams' passing game in general. People are obviously just going to believe what they want, so just leave it there. Fact, a very important part of the passing game has improved this year as opposed to last....TDs!! Attribute that to what you will.
How is 5 catches out of 25 attempts a catch rate of 20.8%? Is that the new math or the Mike Wallace effect?
Yes, when you're talking about if he has an effect on other players around him. Already explained. Better than just comparing completion percentages from last year. Also previously explained. The whole receiving group is performing better by scoring more, but I know, it's just because of Tanne's better ball placement?LOL. Believe what you will.
It's the definition of spinning stats the suit your view. Just face the fact. Mike Wallace has had very little impact on this team, just as I predicted before he signed.
I'm not the one spinning stats. Just using more telling ones. You're right, it's just better ball placement. LOL!
I would not say that Wallace is affecting other receivers performances but it is fair to say that Wallace just like all players affect how a defense operates. If Wallace demands double coverage from defenders and part of the field that his presence demands is on the deep perimeter the effect is going to lessen some of the pressure off of the rest of the offense. That is just basic common sense. Just like if they had a formitable RB it would force defenses to stack the box to some degree and lessen their pressure for the receivers. What is debatable is how effectively The offense has been able to exploit the coverage changes that Wallace commands.
Nobody said the completion percentages are conclusive proof. But they are evidence. So are TDs, but they are very weak evidence for the reasons I mentioned: (1) Wallace himself has only 3 TDs; (2) his theoretical field-stretching is useless in the area where all but one or two TDs were scored -- the red zone; (3) our team's overall red zone efficiency has declined; (4) passing TDs are up because running TDs are way down and we are throwing much more in the red zone. And you have offered nothing to suggest that whatever improvement we have had in TD passes is attributable to Wallace as opposed to Tannehill's development, or Clay's development, or Brandon Gibson, etc. And if Wallace has such an effect on TD passing, why is Roethlisberger throwing more TDs per attempt this year than in 2010 and 2011 when Wallace was at his best? Antonio Brown seems to have little problem working the short passing game despite not having Wallace there to stretch the field. And Jericho Cotchery is catching a TD on 22% of his receptions this year after having none last year with Wallace.
This assumes that Wallace is drawing double coverage, which really hasn't been the case. At least not any more than any other WR who runs deep against a two-deep zone will draw deep safety help. Teams are playing the same standard coverages against us that they play against every other team. Most coverage packeages have some kind of deep zone coverage by a safety. Against such defenses, whether the guy going deep is the Dolphins' Mike Wallace or 60 Minutes' Mike Wallace, the safety's job is to help cover that guy when he enters that zone. Yeah, using 60 Minutes' Mike Wallace is an extreme example, but the safety's assignment is to help cover any receiver who enters that deep zone, whether that is a 4.3 speed guy or a 4.6 speed guy.
That's fair too, to an extent. It really depends on who effective the guy is at the position. If Wallace and Tanny were more in sync it would force defenses to put their best players on coverage of him just to shut that part of the game down and force the offense to beat them elsewhere. I do agree that has not been the case so far. I do think that Wallace has had a greater impact on the offense than when we had hartline playing that role.
Exactly. Wallace also clearly does not get bracket coverage the way Brandon Marshall did, and even then, Marshall's overall impact on the Dolphins offense was minimal. Also, Ryan Tannehill has a 96.3 rating when the ball is on the opponent's 19 yard line to the goal line. That goes up to 109.7 when it is on the opponent's 10 yard line to goal line. This is the area of the field where Wallace's "field stretching" is minimized due to working on a shorter field. Ryan has 12 TD passes and 1 INT in the redzone. This is compared to 8 and 1 all of last season. So, yes, the TD production has more to do with Ryan Tannehill's improvement than anything Mike Wallace has given.
But I think that is a function of how often and how well you throw deep and not the name on the back of the receiver's jersey. The fact is, however, that the Dolphins' deep passing game was more effective/efficient last year than this year and Hartline was more effective/efficient as a deep receiver in 2012 than Wallace has been this year.
Maybe because the Steelers are down in a lot of games and they have no running game to speak of. They're not a run first offense like they were in previous years now they are forced air it out and that will increase your stats Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
Obviously the safety is playing on their heels and not on their toes when Mike Wallace is in a football game. When he's not double covered I'm pretty sure it's not because they think he cant get open ( unless they're just not watching tape) it's because they think the quarterback either won't have time or the ability to get him the ball. Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
If people want to say Mike Wallace makes too much money okay I'll agree with that, but to take it a step further and claim he has no effect on this offense, is dumb. Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
You were right in that context relative to the production thus far, lets let it play out for another four games.
Their concept is still to play good defense and run the football, their lack of offense of lineman have force them into bad situations that make you pass more than you like to. Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
Also I'm doing voice to text on my cell phone for these posts, so if the grammar is off or doesn't make sense???? Blame Mike Wallace Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
What he does in the next four games isn't going to offset the fact that he has made little to no impact on this team to this point. He'd have to average over 200 yards per game and at least 2 touchdowns in each game over the final four to justify his contract.
And the same is true of the Dolphins. The running game has been weak, especially in short yardage situations, so we are throwing more, especially in the deep red zone.
Well that would depend on your definition of major. No I don't really want to know Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
Honestly what he gets paid affects the way we look at him as a player. But I do feel we are now finally incorporating him into the playbook. I not only blame Wallace for some obvious drops, Tannehill for missing some very open throws, and Sherman for calling some dumb *** plays. Was last week we've ran and threw to a slant? Wallace had one and so did Hartline. This amazes me as Wallace always has a cushion, surprised this hasn't been thrown more. Get the ball in his hands and let the speed do the work.
That has beent he case for several years, including when Wallace was there. That is not a new phenomenon.
Its only dumb because Sherman has been dumb in using him. If we had been throwing more deep shots per game, this would open up more lanes for everyone else. Problem is it took 8 weeks to really start employing this tactic. I do believe that Wallace has helped a guy like Clay get matchups against Lbs more than safeties.
No, that's not "obvious." I have been watching this closely for years. Safeties don't play more on their heels against Wallace. Teams play their same basic defenses and coverage schemes week after week. They don't create new ones for specific opponents or specific receivers. Teams that play two-deep zone play it against everyone. It doesn't matter if the receivers they are facing are fast or slow. The scheme is the scheme and the parameters of the zone are pretty much the same, as are the safeties' responsibilities when a receiver enters his zone.
1. That's as many as the whole receiving group last year. Just saying the passing game has greatly improved. 2. It gets you in the red-zone. 3. No good power backs. Not Wallace's fault. I offered as much or more than just citing completion percentages. It was just a way of showing the passing game has greatly improved. Attribute that to what you will.
