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Miami Playoff Paths & Who to Root For

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 18, 2020.

  1. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Being a pro can be cutthroat and that statement above rings true. Millions of the dollars are on the line for a lot of these guys...Big opportunities. The ones that are fighting for a roster spot... You'll probably find that these players are the most competitive.
    In the case of Pittsburgh sitting Ben, Mason Rudolph is still going to want to play well. He's probably looking for some sort of redemption after basically becoming a living meme for the last year. He's also playing for his future. I would not be surprised at all if he has a "good enough" game and they end up beating the Browns.
     
  2. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    Mason Rudolph is a pretty capable QB, his numbers from last year when Big Ben was out wasn't too bad and he won 5 of the 8 games he started.
     
  3. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    If the Steelers are sitting starters why wouldn't the Bills? They both have the 2-seed to play for.
     
  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Aww &$@*!!!
     
  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Cleveland favored by 7...Bills favored by 3, currently
     
  6. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Fins/Bills is now a pickem. I think they know something.
     
    thetylernator and PhinFan1968 like this.
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Wow...they gotta...Vegas is all about their lines.
     
  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Several aren't listing the game at all now, and a few also aren't listing the Steelers game.
     
  9. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    There is no possible way the Fins/Bills game is a pick em unless the Bills are sitting Josh Allen and which case, I could see that.
     
  10. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    So, we have the Bills and Steelers essentially saying they are 'taking a bye-week' for week 17? Rested and healed is better than the effort and injury risk of fighting for that #2 seed which doesn't come with a bye this year?

    Also, Mason Rudolph was carried by the Steeler defense last year. They won IN SPITE of him, he wasn't even a good game manager. He can take a shot to the head though, I'll give him that. :couch:
     
  11. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    That's the point.
     
  12. Phil Hutchings

    Phil Hutchings Active Member

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    Maybe they’ve yet to decide which game to show.
     
  13. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The notion that teams intentionally lose in order to secure the number one draft pick is ludicrous.

    If a team is that horrible, the head coach is going to do everything he can to secure his job...or prove he is a good coach, but lacked the support from the executive level to help him succeed in order to secure another HC position.

    Players are going to try and prove they are good players if for no other reason than to secure as lucrative a contract as they can, either with their parent team or in free agency.

    It's only the fanbase that cheers for their horrible team to continue to lose for that coveted number 1 draft pick.
     
    Phil Hutchings and KeyFin like this.
  14. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    The seeds arent locked so i dont understand what Vegas is calculating. Buffalo has talked about playing home games throughout the playoffs and forcing opponents to play in their weather conditions - they can guarantee two home games with the second seed. Theres talk that Buffalo will allow some fans in their stadium for the playoffs.

    Cleveland a 10 point favorite against the Steelers is just weird to me.. something is going on in Pittsburgh, they got a shot st the second seed too..

    Does cleveland winning eliminate the ravens?
     
  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Playoff picture and scenarios.

    2020 NFL Playoff Picture | NFL Playoffs | NFL.com
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The quick answer is that if everyone wins, Indy is out-

    Miami clinches playoff berth with:

    1. MIA win OR
    2. BAL loss OR
    3. CLE loss OR
    4. IND loss OR
    5. MIA tie + BAL tie OR
    6. MIA tie + CLE tie OR
    7. MIA tie + IND tie OR
    8. MIA tie + TEN loss
    Baltimore clinches playoff berth with:
    1. BAL win OR
    2. CLE loss OR
    3. IND loss OR
    4. BAL tie + MIA loss OR
    5. BAL tie + TEN loss OR
    6. BAL tie + CLE tie OR
    7. BAL tie + IND tie
    Cleveland clinches playoff berth with:
    1. CLE win OR
    2. IND loss OR
    3. TEN loss + MIA win or tie + BAL win or tie OR
    4. CLE tie + BAL loss OR
    5. CLE tie + MIA loss OR
    6. CLE tie + TEN loss OR
    7. CLE tie + IND tie OR
    8. CLE tie + TEN tie + BAL win + MIA win
    Indianapolis clinches AFC South division title with:
    1. IND win + TEN loss or tie OR
    2. IND tie + TEN loss
    Indianapolis clinches playoff berth with:
    1. IND win + BAL loss or tie OR
    2. IND win + CLE loss or tie OR
    3. IND win + MIA loss or tie OR
    4. IND tie + BAL loss OR
    5. IND tie + CLE loss OR
    6. IND tie + MIA loss
    Tennessee clinches AFC South division title with:
    1. TEN win OR
    2. IND loss OR
    3. TEN tie + IND tie
    Tennessee clinches playoff berth with:
    1. BAL loss OR
    2. MIA loss OR
    3. TEN tie + CLE loss OR
    4. TEN tie + MIA tie OR
    5. TEN tie + BAL tie
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2020
  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay, I think I fully understand this puzzle now and it all has to do with the Steelers (#3 seed), us (#5 seed) and the Ravens (#6 seed). The Steelers don't want to face either one of those teams and believe that #7 team may actually be tougher than the #6. So I think they're intentionally handing the Bills the #2 seed to avoid a 1st round Ravens/Dolphins loss.

    The Bills meanwhile, would rather not face us or the Ravens in round one either....but they also partially control our destiny. If the Bills let the Dolphins win then we stay # 5, the Ravens stay at #6 the Bills will face the Colts, Titans or Browns in the 1st round. Why on earth would the Bills intentionally face a division rival or the Ravens in week 18?

    So long story short, I think the Steelers are tanking to avoid the Fins/Ravens, which means the Bills will tank as well to increase the odds of the Steelers catching the Ravens. And I'm guessing Vegas caught wind of this and realized that they can't take money on the Fins in essentially the closest thing to a rigged match-up they've seen.

    I have no "proof" and no source...this is 100% me putting pieces together. I believe it is the only thing that fits though and my money would be on Miami (if we could actually bet).
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'm playing around with the playoff machine and if you assume Cleveland, Titans, Ravens, Colts all win, then Buffalo winning would lead to them playing the Colts and if they lose they play the Browns. They wouldn't play us in either scenario. They only play us if Pittsburgh wins which is now a 10 point underdog. So this isn't about a division rival.

    As far as the spread, Bills are back to being favorites again at -2 spread. Home field advantage is usually 3 points (should be a tiny bit less this year if bettors are accurate), so that's basically a pick'em on a neutral field, which is consistent with uncertainty about whether the Bills will rest their starters. It's not consistent with knowing they will or will not rest them.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, my theory was Miami and Baltimore were the two teams to avoid- which the #3 & #4 seed would face if everyone won. If Miami loses and Cleveland loses, then Miami is the #7 and Pitt gets Cleveland all over again...while the Bills get the repeat of Miami. So neither Pitt or Buffalo really has incentive to win here because you don't want division rivals in the 1st round of the playoffs and you're definitely not wanting the Ravens.

    I did notice on DraftKings the Miami betting line is back, so maybe it was a glitch or something that made it go offline. I just found it interesting because you know teams think out these scenarios and try to create their best path.
     

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