1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Miami Playoff Paths & Who to Root For

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 18, 2020.

  1. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

    15,612
    9,375
    113
    Dec 19, 2007
    I think waking up this morning knowing we won't have to deal with two elite QBs in our division (thanks to the Jets blowing up their chance at Lawrence) makes up a lot in seeing the Bills win the division.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  2. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And just what does that 2 seed get you?
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I think you'll have that anyway...the Steelers don't scare anybody. I can see them 1 and done.

    I believe the Bills are, right now, the #2 team in the league slightly ahead of Green Bay. Then again, I thought there was no chance in hell they'd lose to Houston last playoffs, so what do I know.
     
  4. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Some key team defensive stats:

    #2 Scoring Defense
    #1 Defense in Turnovers
    #1 3rd Down Defense (with an offense that is 21st in the league in 3rd down conversions)

    Maybe not clear-cut #1, but definitely in the argument.
     
    Phil Hutchings likes this.
  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    This board, has a LONG history of other teams' fans showing up to talk trash (usually Patriots)...and in a great percentage of those situations, their team loses and they get awful quiet.

    Bills fans have a LOT to be excited about, for the first time this century, so I can't really blame 'em. Their team is kickin' ***, I'd be hyped too.
     
  6. Fireland

    Fireland Member

    42
    40
    18
    Dec 29, 2013
    They need the Ravens to lose to Cincy I think. Losing to Giants doesn't matter much because its out of conference.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,523
    9,774
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    The good news about the Giants is that even though they're only 5-9, they're one game out from winning the division. So they're bringing everything they have to somehow steal that game.

    You're right though, if the Ravens lose to the Giants then we lose week 17, the Ravens are still in. So we really need to just win both these games and be done with it.
     
  8. MediocrityLivesOn

    MediocrityLivesOn Member

    89
    71
    18
    Dec 16, 2018
    If the Giants upset the Ravens that will be legendary. I want to happen. I seriously cannot take Ravens fans seriously at all.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  9. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    10,647
    3,867
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    Man the Steelers are getting ROLLED by the Bengals. Big Ben looks like burnt toast, godawful performance. This is a team that nobody will be scared of come postseason time.
     
    PhinFan1968 and KeyFin like this.
  10. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

    36,187
    26,927
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Dammit! I need Steeler's defense score 7 points to make the championship! They are blowing it. I hate the Steelers!
     
  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Told folks weeks ago I hope we make the playoffs and go to Pittsburgh first round. They're a joke for an 11-0 started team.
     
  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    CORRECTION:

    #1 Scoring Defense (#32 in 2019)
    #1 Defense in Turnovers (#29 in2019)
    #1 3rd Down Defense (#24 in 2019)
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,494
    9,999
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Absolutely amazing what Flores has done even if we don't end at the top, especially with our less than stellar talent.

    As far as Buffalo, they need to win a SB first before I'll envy them for anything.
     
  14. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    3,051
    1,545
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    That all seems probable. It would make for an interesting game in week 17, as both teams would play again the next weekend (assuming Miami stays at the 7th playoff spot).
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That's the great thing about a season-long statistic...it all balances out, vs good and bad. Teams don't get to the #2 seed by beating all winning teams either.

    What happened against the Titans? Was that remarkable/bad? Does that somehow negate the #2 seed the Jills currently sit at?

    Save it.
     
    Phil Hutchings likes this.
  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I was messing around with the playoff machine, and there is a pretty strange potential outcome to the playoff bracketing, if Miami could win-out.

    All 3 wildcard games in the AFC could be divisional games (Mia @ Buf, Ind @ Ten, Pit @ Cle). Quite possible.
     
  17. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    10,611
    10,285
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    The Dolphins and Bills have played identical schedules save 2 games. Slippery slope to point toward SOS.

    The Bills are very good, when they have J Brown that offense is cerebral, like can hang with the Chiefs cerebral. But it will be interesting to see if Josh Allen in the playoffs rises to the occasion as opposed to ramping his play down as he did last year in Houston. That was just a pathetic performance and his team was better than Houston. I lost significant coin thanks to that garbage performance, depending on the opponent? I will be rooting for that to happen again.
     
    Jimi and PhinFan1968 like this.
  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    When all else fails...blame COVID. Got it.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 22, 2020
    Fin-O and Jimi like this.
  19. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    They had absolutely ZERO business losing that game. Probably early-onset COVID.
     
    Fin-O likes this.
  20. Jimi

    Jimi Active Member

    127
    73
    28
    Jan 17, 2009
    The pats, you mean the team you needed a last minute fumble to beat?

    And what does having turnovers have anything to do with the performance against KC? KC still had the ball plenty due to our offensive incompetence the first 3 quarters. One of those TDs was a kick return also FYI. Trying to shame a defense for not holding KC under 26 points is a very dumb hill to die on.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,523
    9,774
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Which clearly should have come back since our gunner was grabbed from behind and thrown to the ground. The refs flat-out gifted that TD to KC.
     
    Jimi likes this.
  22. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,107
    2,016
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Look he's a Bills fan. They haven't won crap in forever just like us. I like when they come onto the board. Makes things more spicy. He has a lot to crow about winning the division. The talking down on the Fins, well like I said, he's a Bills fan. Enough said.
     
  23. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    306
    367
    63
    Dec 31, 2018
    Costa Rica
    Losing 4 Superbowls in a row leaves mental scars on your psyche to be sure. It's a dark cloud that hangs over the city of Buffalo to this day like that sad character in the Lil Abner comic strips.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2020
  24. FphinFantastic

    FphinFantastic Member

    40
    32
    18
    Aug 25, 2019
    After last nights implosion, if the dolphins win out, they are set at either 5th or 6th seed. If they lose one game, they have to rely on a hopeful jets win vs Cleveland. If Steelers beat colts and browns we could get 5th seed. If colts and browns beat Steelers we could get 6th seed. I don’t see any way just landing at 7th. So it’s 5th 6th or nothing for the phins....
     
  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,523
    9,774
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Again, this is a conversation for two weeks from now.

    It's great you beat our rookie team in week two by three points- but we aren't that team anymore. I have no problem at all with your trash talk UNLESS you're the type that won't return post-game once your team gets embarrassed. Maybe the Dolphins won't win that game, but they will show up and expose Allen every chance they get.

    BTW, I love how you throw in there that we can't beat "your starters" when we almost beat KC with our practice squad. You're very fortunate our starting WR's and TE might not be playing.
     
  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    This dude...lol. Typical.
     
    xphinfanx and KeyFin like this.
  27. Jimi

    Jimi Active Member

    127
    73
    28
    Jan 17, 2009
    You guys should have lost to the pats and let the Jets hang around for over a half of football. You guys lost to the cardinals.

    I mean I agree the bills are better right now, but your arguments are garbage.
     
  28. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    You ever seen some of that Bills Mafia crap? LOL
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 22, 2020
  29. Jimi

    Jimi Active Member

    127
    73
    28
    Jan 17, 2009
    Yes, if you want to participate in the utterly useless practice of “team A did this against team B and look what team C did against team B” then I will throw it back in your face.

    The discussion was about the defense not the team overall so your quip about overall record is similarly useless.
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,523
    9,774
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    LMAO, trolling for a few hours per season doesn't make you a 10-year member. Please don't insult the folks here who have been actually contributing for that long.
     
  31. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

    20,784
    25,899
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    NC
    Until now you didn't post for 7 years.
     
    xphinfanx, Hooligan, Jimi and 3 others like this.
  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,494
    9,999
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Says a Bills fan. Only KC fans should be allowed to say stuff like that. The Bills are currently at +1000 moneyline for winning the SB which translates to a paltry 9.09% chance.

    So we can also say to you: "Look at your Vegas lines. Nobody believes in the Bills."

    Yes, after the 2nd longest drought in SB era history for NOT making the playoffs: 17 years from 2000-2016. Only the 1967-1986 Saints had a longer playoff drought (20 years). Pretty impressive accomplishment I must say (it's actually pretty hard to do that given that teams want to win).

    Yes they are, for now at least. So? You still haven't won a SB in 54 years.
     
  33. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    13,531
    8,336
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    ********************************************

    Alright guys. Knock it off.
    I've wasted enough time editing and deleting posts and warning people who are being insulting, personal, using foul language, the whole nine yards. A whole bunch of you guys are behaving like kindergarteners, not adults.

    This forum has pretty simple rules. Be courteous. Attack the post, not the poster. People are allowed to disagree. If you see something off you should report the post and a mod will pick it up.

    Non-Dolphins fans are welcome to come here and post and challenge posts as long as they, and everyone else, abide by the rules. The mods and admins will determine who is and isn't a troll.

    Some of you are already on last warnings. Any more and you'll be enjoying a short Christmas vacation from the forums.

    Now if you have an issue with any of this, PM me or one of the other mods, don't post in here. It being Christmas I'd rather things be more "Elf" than "Die Hard".

    Thank you.

    ********************************************
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2020
    Phil Hutchings, plc001 and KeyFin like this.
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,523
    9,774
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    It's killing me that I can't think of an appropriate, yet really sassy line to quote from Elf. So I'll share this instead.

     
    xphinfanx, firedan and Galant like this.
  35. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    13,531
    8,336
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    [​IMG]
     
    xphinfanx likes this.
  36. Fireland

    Fireland Member

    42
    40
    18
    Dec 29, 2013
    They lost to two teams with losing records. Seattle, Buffalo, and KC have winning records.
     
    Phil Hutchings and PhinFan1968 like this.
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    7,523
    9,774
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Quick update on what we're rooting for this weekend. As it stands today, we own the #7 slot and we have a tie-breaker over the Ravens. If we win out, we're in regardless of other outcomes. Yet we currently have 28% odds of making the playoffs because nobody thinks we can beat the Bills next week. Tonight's game certainly isn't "a gimmie" either. So here's our best-case scenario-

    1) Obviously the most important game is our own. Beat the Raiders and we still control our own destiny & keep a half-game lead over the Ravens in conference ratings, which is where we get the tie-breaker. If we lose tonight, we drop to a 7% chance of making the playoffs.

    The remaining scenarios are based on us winning tonight.

    2) If the Giants knock off the Ravens and we beat the Raiders, we're basically locked into the playoffs. It's not a true 100% because if all the conference leaders ahead of us got upset this week, it could make some 3 and 4-way tie scenarios that could make us the odd man out.

    3) If the Ravens win, we need the Jets to find a way to beat the Cleveland Browns. A win there moves us from 46% to 68% odds of making the playoffs because we'd be entering week 17 as the #6 seed....essentially making the last slot a battle between Cleveland and Baltimore. That's why I've been saying all week "Lets go Jets...J...E...T...S!"

    4) The Steelers beating Indy has the same effect; it makes them even with the Fins but only increases our playoff odds by about 2%. However, this could also come back and bite us in those multi-team criteria for who gets in. So this game really doesn't matter when Indy takes the win.

    5) The Bills and the Patriots is possibly the most important game of the week, even though it doesn't help us with the odds. If the Bills win, they're locked into the #2 seed and they have no reason to play starters in week 17. If the Bills lose, then they have to beat us in week 17 for that seeding. The thing is, maybe they could care less about the seeding and would play or rest starters regardless. No way to know so root for whoever you want.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2020
    Phil Hutchings likes this.
  38. Fireland

    Fireland Member

    42
    40
    18
    Dec 29, 2013
    Its not even close to 100%. If the Ravens beat Cincy and the Dolphins lose either game Ravens clinch a spot.

    Miami has the tie breaker at 11-5 but not at 10-6 in that scenario.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  39. Phil Hutchings

    Phil Hutchings Active Member

    268
    199
    43
    Sep 16, 2018
    That’s some turnaround in one year.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  40. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    11,024
    4,045
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Theres a good chance that if we win next week, we face the Bills again at the wild card. Back to back weeks in possible snow at the ralph. I think flores needs to see if Tua can handle those conditions and make that decision for wild card weekend
     
    KeyFin likes this.

Share This Page