Miami Playoff Paths & Who to Root For
138 replies
KeyFinForum VeteranOPFor those who aren't keeping up with this sort of thing, Miami currently holds the #7 seed over the Ravens due to conference record. We're both 8-5, so we just have to have the same or a better record than Baltimore. However, the Ravens SHOULD go 3-0 with their fairly easy remaining schedule, which means we need to go 3-0 as well.
Other good news, there's really nobody besides the Ravens to worry about- it's them or us for that #7 spot. The Pats have to win out to overtake us for #2 in the East and have any shot at the playoffs, while the Raiders have self-destructed and aren't in the picture anymore. Of course, for us these are both must-win games regardless.
Looking ahead in the seeding, there aren't too many teams that can drop to help us out. The Browns, Titans and Colts are one game ahead, and of course one of them will win the division out of Tenn/Indy. If one of them self-destructed down the stretch, there's a chance us and the Ravens make the playoffs. It's not likely though. Would be great to see the Browns lose to the Jets or Giants and the Colts to lose to the Jags or Texans. Then they each have a game against the Steelers which could also be a L. But again, this would require one of them to lose two out of three while we go 2-1 or better.
Which brings us back to our 1st scenario- win three and we're in. Win two and we're probably out, unless the Ravens lose once OR the Browns, Titans or Colts lose twice.
One more scenario which could actually become a possibility- if any team gets COVID these next three Sundays and can't play in a meaningful game with playoff implications, then the fields expand to 8 teams automatically. That means we're in at #8 as long as we beat the Pats....a 9-7 record should lock us in for that. So today's game is definitely the most important of the three.
Updated after week 15:
Teams playing Baltimore we're rooting for-
(For the #7 seed- any loss here lets us lose one as well)
Giants week 16
Bengals week 17
Teams to root for against higher seeds-
(We need the Browns or Colts to lose both IF we take a loss AND the Ravens win both)
Jets over Browns week 16
Steelers over Browns in week 17
Steelers over Colts in week 16
Jags over Colts in week 17
* Updated based on Bills winning the division.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
Crazy that it is going to take 11-5 to land the 7th seed in the AFC wild card race. Good thing there was a 7th or it’s possible 11-5 would be left in the cold lol
TheHighExhaultedForum VeteranThe good news is that they are a better team than their next two opponents.
I'd rather have Buffalo win the next two so they have nothing to play for Week 17 and they lay down against Miami.
Only shot.
mlb1399Forum VeteranYeah, I dont see is beating Buffalo if that last game matters. I think we can beat NE and LV but part of me feels like injuries are piling and this good run is over. Either way it’s a win. Better draft picks or keep on exceeding expectations for wins.
It’s only getting better #finup
KeyFinForum Veteran"mlb1399 wrote:
Yeah, I dont see is beating Buffalo if that last game matters. I think we can beat NE and LV but part of me feels like injuries are piling and this good run is over. Either way it’s a win. Better draft picks or keep on exceeding expectations for wins.
It’s only getting better #finup
That's why I included the Ravens schedule as well and the other teams- it's possible we don't have to win all 3 if the Ravens lose once or teams above us lose twice. Someone will choke, they always do.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
KeyFinForum Veteran"TheHighExhaulted wrote:
The good news is that they are a better team than their next two opponents.
I'd rather have Buffalo win the next two so they have nothing to play for Week 17 and they lay down against Miami.
Only shot.
If that were to play out and Buffalo rests starters in week 17, it would be intentionally to let us in the playoffs. I mean, that's not the main reason...but their front office would definitely see those implications and think it out.
Would they intentionally want to face our young defense twice? I'm not sure anyone would wish for that.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
"KeyFin wrote:
If that were to play out and Buffalo rests starters in week 17, it would be intentionally to let us in the playoffs. I mean, that's not the main reason...but their front office would definitely see those implications and think it out.
Theoretically I think not having your QB injured in a meaningless game would be reason enough, even if it let us in.
KeyFinForum Veteran"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:
Theoretically I think not having your QB injured in a meaningless game would be reason enough, even if it let us in.
No sure...it would be a heck of an incentive to start him as well. The last thing they want is to face our defense in the playoffs if they can avoid it.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
Unlucky 13SupporterBuffalo resting starters to allow us into the playoffs could also mean that we have to play them, in their building, again the next week as well. That's a huge advantage for them. Watch what you wish for. It will depend on how the seeds work out.
FinatikStaffRight now we would play Pittsburg. I like that matchup.
Lots of people will tell you what they think about you and what you shouldn't and should do. Not everyone's thoughts are worth consideration. Don't take criticism from anyone who you wouldn't also go to for advice.
KeyFinForum Veteran"Finatik wrote:
Right now we would play Pittsburg. I like that matchup.
As crazy as this sounds, I'm honestly not sure if Pittsburg is a playoff-caliber team. They've squeaked by a lot of much weaker opponents throughout their schedule for single-TD wins. I would love to draw them round 1 as well!
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
"KeyFin wrote:
No sure...it would be a heck of an incentive to start him as well. The last thing they want is to face our defense in the playoffs if they can avoid it.
I dont think of it that way personally. A playoff team shouldnt be scared or worried about beating anyone. If you are playing for matchups in my opinion you werent good enough to be a champion anyway.
Their mentality should be that they would love to knock off a division foe in the playoffs and that they can beat anyone on any given week.
Though I do see what you are saying.
KeyFinForum Veteran"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:
I dont think of it that way personally. A playoff team shouldnt be scared or worried about beating anyone. If you are playing for matchups in my opinion you werent good enough to be a champion anyway.
Their mentality should be that they would love to knock off a division foe in the playoffs and that they can beat anyone on any given week.
Though I do see what you are saying.
Our defense is probably the best in the league at the moment and that makes us a genuine wildcard. I mean, if we need 24 points on average to win and the defense is setting up 2 or 3 scores in some games, NOBODY would intentionally hope to draw us after seeing how we played KC.
Coaches would never come out and say, "I really hope we don't have to play Miami," but I guarantee you that they're thinking it. Buffalo could actually be in the very unique position to help us get into the playoffs over Baltimore, so it really comes down to who they're more worried about.
Honestly, it might make sense to fear Baltimore's offense more...to me it's just a very interesting concept to think about. Buffalo's D is legit as well though so all kinds of factors would play into that decision.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
"KeyFin wrote:
Our defense is probably the best in the league at the moment and that makes us a genuine wildcard. I mean, if we need 24 points on average to win and the defense is setting up 2 or 3 scores in some games, NOBODY would intentionally hope to draw us after seeing how we played KC.
Coaches would never come out and say, "I really hope we don't have to play Miami," but I guarantee you that they're thinking it. Buffalo could actually be in the very unique position to help us get into the playoffs over Baltimore, so it really comes down to who they're more worried about.
Honestly, it might make sense to fear Baltimore's offense more...to me it's just a very interesting concept to think about. Buffalo's D is legit as well though so all kinds of factors would play into that decision.
Yeah, I totally get what you're saying and agree somewhat but I guess my point is, if Josh Allen breaks his leg in the 4th but the Bills dont have to face our defense in the playoffs is that really a win?
I just dont think not facing us in the playoffs is worth that sort of risk.
Now if they could improve their seeding and get a bye week or something it would be different to me.
Deus ex dolphinForum Veteran"KeyFin wrote:
That's why I included the Ravens schedule as well and the other teams- it's possible we don't have to win all 3 if the Ravens lose once or teams above us lose twice. Someone will choke, they always do.
I just hope that 'Someone' won't be Miami. :couch:
On the plus side, there are a number of paths to the playoffs for the Phins, but starting with a win over the Pats this week will be a great first step.
A terrible play call, terribly executed.
FinatikStaffThis is a must win game. Period.
Lots of people will tell you what they think about you and what you shouldn't and should do. Not everyone's thoughts are worth consideration. Don't take criticism from anyone who you wouldn't also go to for advice.
KeyFinForum Veteran"firedan wrote:
Three must games. One at a time.
Yup. The "it would be nice to win" games have concluded for the season.
Thinking back, it's such a shame this defense and the o-line wasn't together like this in the first three games. With that week 4-14 team, we win all three of those and are probably sitting in the #1 seed. Doesn't matter now though- what does is exactly what you just said. Three huge wins, one week at a time.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
ExplosionsInDaSkyForum VeteranAs i said a few days ago...Our playoffs start this weekend and only get more and more intense by the week. WE HAVE TO beat New England on Sunday or it's over for the season. I know some are fine with the progress and would be ok missing the playoffs, but if we are actually in a position to make the postseason (which we are)...Then why wouldn't you want to be there? Here's the thing, whether we though we would be or not, we're an 8-5 team currently holding a playoff spot. Yes...It's a pleasant surprise, but now this it is attainable...screw it, lets go all in and try and get there! It would be a heck of an achievement from last year to this year if we were to make the dance. I don't think anyone is thinking Super Bowl here, but the postseason is still a lot of fun and I know that if we do make it...whoever we end up playing, we are going to at least scare the hell out of them. In short, making the playoffs can only benefit this young roster. While missing them isn't the end of the world, in no way am I ready to personally throw in the towel and call the season a success without them.
texanphinaticForum Veteran"KeyFin wrote:
As crazy as this sounds, I'm honestly not sure if Pittsburg is a playoff-caliber team. They've squeaked by a lot of much weaker opponents throughout their schedule for single-TD wins. I would love to draw them round 1 as well!
The Bears of the AFC, but their better coach and QB will keep them from the kind of slide the Bears had. Very beatable team though, that offense is not good. Chiefs are the team to beat, and I suspect they will hold things closer to the vest these last few weeks before unloading in the playoffs.
Man that stupid loss to the Broncos was a tough one, put us in a bad spot now that the Ravens have picked it up a bit.
TheHighExhaultedForum Veteran"Sceeto wrote:
Didn't the Raiders losing last night help us?
Not really it just makes them less relevant.
Unlucky 13Supporter"Sceeto wrote:
Didn't the Raiders losing last night help us?
A small bit. It basically takes Vegas out of the equation, since they can't possibly tie with us at ten wins. That's good, because there were scenarios where being in a 3 or 4 way tie with them was bad for Miami.
We seem to have the tiebreaker edge over the Colts, because the playoff machines all give us the edge with the same AFC record. That likely comes down to games vs common opponents, and should we beat Oakland, that would put us at 5-0 in those games, while Indy can't be better than 4-1. (They finish with Jacksonville).
So, should the Colts lose the next two vs Houston and Pittsburgh while the Fins beat New England and Las Vegas, we would likely be in following the Week 16 games no matter what, and Week 17 would then only determine seeding. That's our easiest path in without winning Week 17.
MediocrityLivesOnForum VeteranThree more games and we get a taste of the playoffs. It will build confidence with this squad. Please. Just. Win.
Marlins, Dolphins, Lightning, Heat, Canes.
Puka-headSupporterI don't see the Fluffy Ho's laying down week 17 regardless of playoff scenarios. They and their mafia hate on the Phins like we hate on the jest. They will be playing to win, especially if beating us keeps us out of the playoffs