Miami Draft Strategy

I didn't know we run a Walsh style WCO. Does Philbin know this?

wow, you're absolutely clueless about Austin with all due respect. One of the greatest aspects to Austin's game is that he IS a vertical threat from the slot and HAS BEEN ONE all through college. He instantly becomes one of, if not the league's best vertical threat from the slot the minute he's drafted. If we want to run 3 & 4 verticals we'd have more than enough firepower to do so with Wallace, Austin, Keller, and Hartline. It's like you understand the X's & O's but don't understand the players, which is a dangerous combination.

LOL. So Tavon was "shut down" by Kansas State when he had 6 catches, 34 yards, 1 TD, and 100 yard KO return TD? Agree to disagree. I find it categorically absurd that you think a player won't translate to the NFL because he has one down offensive game amidst an amazing season. Find me a player who doesn't. Yeah, ignore that Austin torched one of college's best defenses [LSU, that's loaded with top NFL talent] for 11 catches & 187 yards.... and ignore that he easily got the best of this year's top coverage safety Kenny Vaccaro.

By your silly definition of a player having a down game = unlikely to translate to the NFL, then why do you so strongly favor Swope over Austin when Swope, by your statistical standard, was shut down by Florida (5 catches, 16 yards), South Carolina St (2 catches, 9 yards), Louisiana Tech (1 catch, 5 yards), and Sam Houston St (1 catch, 6 yards)?

 

We understand the concepts perfectly fine. You're hitting a brick wall b/c you don't understand the first thing about the players involved.

 

Exactly what I was thinking.

 

Now you're being combative to be combative and it's starting to piss me off. I specifically made that preface to illustrate the differences between Walsh's WCO and the modern derivative that commonly uses three and four receiver sets.

I understand Austin's game just fine, probably better than you do because I can imagine ways to use him that would never occur to you. My point was that his dynamic play ability would largely be wasted in Miami at the present time. If you can't immediately wring every ounce of his ability out of him from a schematic perspective, there's no reason to burn a first on him.

Despite a spectacular off-season so far, Miami's house is not yet in order and drafting Austin won't make it so. If we could sit here and honestly say, "This is a playoff team and with Austin it's a Super Bowl team," then my tune would be different.

 

Yeah, but that doesn't mean you let a special player jut by you. You draft him, and have him, when optimally you are ready (in your scenario). There's not going to be tons of Tavon Austins in the future, and there's just no guarantee the team will be in position to get somebody like him if there was.

 

I understand what Austin does and I understand what Swopes does. I understand that you're overly enamored with the sexy pick, whereas I'm concerned about scheme and where personnel fit in. I also understand that you don't really get what I've been saying, because if you did then you wouldn't be so nastily defensive.

 

Barry Sanders was once in a generation. Tavon Austin is not, I assure you. Hell, Kenjon Barner can do many of the same things as Austin can, he's just .2 seconds slower.

 

Edited before you got in . But you're right, once-in-a-lifetime was a little drastic. However, we are a lot more stable than the Lions when they had Barry Sanders, and the league has changed a lot since then. You're also comparing running backs with wide receivers.

 

Kenjon Barner is not a wide receiver.

 

Funny you should say that, because I'd motion Austin from the slot into the backfield about a quarter of the time. Especially when I suspected the opposing defense had something up its sleeve. All of a sudden the defense has to account not only for a different passing concept, causing a cascade of coverage shifts, but also has to worry about double read or power triple option to the far side. That will break a defense every time, especially if you scheme the blocking correctly. Aren't spread running concepts fun?

 

Thanks for making our case?

 

Nor was he entirely a running back. In the same manner, Tavon Austin was not entirely a wide receiver for West Virginia. Funny thing that happens in a spread offense, your best player is used in every way you can make use of him.

 

Except it doesn't work unless you have a legitimate deep threat in the slot other than Austin.

 

Tavon Austin was used in other ways, however the guy did have over 100 receptions two years in a row. He is primarily a wide receiver.

 

Tavon Austin
Receiving 2012: 114 REC, 1289 yards, Average 11.3, Long 75 yards, 12 TD
Rushing 2012: 72 attempts, 643 yards, Average 8.9, Long 74 yards, 3 TD

Kenjon Barner
Receiving 2012: 20 REC, 256 yards, Average 12.8, Long 48 yards, 2 TD
Rushing 2012: 278 attempts, 1767 yards, Average 6.4, Long 80 yards, 21 TD

That's a big difference, man.

 

I'm optimistic of a trade back into the 1st round for a 2nd big name prospect. The idea is to make a splash and sell tickets, sway voters, etc. What would it cost us to get back into the low 20's ? Couldn't we avoid giving up a later 1st rounder, with our abundance of 2nd day picks ?

Here's something intriguing: Taking Austin/Patterson and then coming back for Rhodes/Trufant/Eifert/Carradine/etc.

 

you mean the modern one that often uses a TE/Hback as one of those receivers in the 3+ WR sets, which you seem hell bent on ignoring? Why the heck do you think we just inked Keller to a $4+ million deal, drafted Egnew last year in the 3rd round, and have ANOTHER Hback in Clay rostered?.... to sit 'em on the bench?

haha yeah ok. You obviously shown you don't understand him very well at all.

This statement couldn't be FURTHER from the truth. Wallace alone makes Austin a tremendous addition considering they pair perfectly together and are ideal compliments as far as both being able to either stretch the field simultaneously or having Wallace stretching it vertically while Austin does so horizontally. On top of that we have an athletic QB, a coach who wants to run more read-option & pistol stuff, a system that wants to spread the field and create space (which Austin thrives in), and an owner & GM who want more explosiveness & big play ability. It couldn't be ANY MORE PERFECT of a scenario to add Austin. Quick, somebody tell Dearborn that Tony Sparano & Dan Henning are long gone!!!

A piece to the puzzle is a piece to the puzzle, and I find it bothersome that you feel it's ok to plop $60 million on Wallace and then not focus on maximizing his potential and our huge investment into him. You act like we don't have an extra 2nd & 3rd round pick, and you seem to think this draft is loaded in premium talent in the 10-20 range when it in fact is pretty weak this year, making Austin a justifiable pick this year. None of the top 3 tackles will be there at 12, and the top pass rushers will be off the board; we don't need a QB; corners can be gotten in the 2nd & 3rd round; so there's absolutely NOTHING wrong with adding the most explosive offensive player the draft has seen since Percy Harvin. Austin is a rare talent; there's no reason to pass on him for a more common type player you can get the likes of in any draft and just about any FA.

 

Somebody can correct me here, but it would most likely be one of our third-round picks. Which one would depend on how far we are moving up.

 

I get what you're saying perfectly fine. Repeating it over and over wont change the fact you have no idea what you're talking about in regards to Austin. I'm enamored with him b/c he's an ideal scheme fit who offers tremendous versatility & flexibility along with his game-changing ability. What I understand is that you have no understanding of how Austin would fit into this offense as you're selling him short as just a "sexy pick", which is ridiculous. How in the world you undervalue & understate a player who could very well lead the WR/TE cast in touches on a yearly basis is beyond me.

 

Because that's a 31 personnel set? I'm sure we'll run that quite a bit, but the 41 set was the easiest to explain three verticals.

By all means, then, fire up paint or photoshop and diagram a variation of a typical WCO play. Your challenge is to use Austin in a manner atypical for the NFL in general and the WCO specifically. I shall eagerly anticipate your genius.

One of them, if not two, will be there at 12.

 

LOL, now I know you're off your rocker, man. Firstly, Austin is an elite slot receiver prospect/Xfactor, and those guys do not come along every year. Secondly, Kenjon Barner can't do crap that Austin can b/c he's not a goddam receiver. Comparing Austin to a running back tells me you have no idea what you're talking about. None.Zip.Zilch.Nada.

 

Great, now tell me how you're going to create space for Austin to do his thing without multiple 4.3 receivers threatening the verticals. If you motion him into the backfield without a another 4.3 guy in the opposite slot, you've just made an NFL defense's job easier, not harder.

 

Austin is a vertical threat in the slot. Wallace is a legitimate vertical threat next to him, and Keller is most definitely a seam threat from the TE position or opposite slot..... and you can toss Hartline into the slot who becomes a vertical threat there when matched against linebackers & safeties.

 

You have a different vision of Austin than I do.

I see a slot wide receiver with big play potential. A player that could be used to extend a lot of drives with the added bonus of having the ability to take one to the house.

Kind of like a Bess who has the ability to go deep and have a big play.

 

You're going to sit there and tell me you couldn't use Kenjon Barner in the same way that you would Austin? I'm talking schematically, not results. Arguing the latter is ridiculous because neither has played an NFL down. You can tell me how elite Austin is five years down the road he's led the league in all-purpose yards multiple times.

I hope that diagram is good, oh Master of the West Coast.

 

*yawn* Boring. You've been screaming about how great Austin is and how he's going to change the game, then you throw that vanilla **** out there? Give me a break.

 

Somebody gets it. About ****ing time.

If that's what you're aiming for, you're wasting your time with Austin. His route running isn't going to wow anybody and that's a great part of what makes guys like Welker and Bess good slot receivers, they played in college offenses that demanded an absolute mastery of route running.

 

Has it escaped your mind that we just signed the NFL's best vertical threat? How 'bout the solid seam threat TE we also inked? Those 2 can easily stretch the field vertically to create space; meanwhile Austin can create his own space horizontally simply b/c he's a nightmare to cover, runs a variety of routes, and runs them well. He can also create his own space vertically by separating from coverage for chunk yardage plays. And the notion that Hartline has to run a 4.3 to help create space for Austin is just plain silly.

you say that as if Dustin Keller matched up on a linebacker is an advantage for the defense. C'mon man.

 

Why do I have to use Austin in a manner atypical for the NFL in general and the WCO specifically? I simply don't understand this mentality of yours that Austin isn't a qualified receiver in his own right. How do you come to this odd conclusion?

No they won't.

 

I do not agree. His route running looks pretty good, at least good enough with his quickness. His ability to get open is also pretty good as well. Watching full game tapes shows a player who is a reciever and an athlete.

Bess has to be a perfect route runner because he doesn't have the explosion or quickness. Welker has amazing quickness and uses that to get open as well as being a good route runner.

 

finally we agree. here's one example of a potential scenario. i don't know if teams use this specific value chart anymore (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php), but for the sake of argument lets say they do.

so we take our guy at 12. now to move back into the 1st we'd for sure have to give up our higher 2nd (42 overall, 480 pts). if we throw in our other 2nd from the Colts that's another 360 pts, which comes out to 840 pts. looking at the draft value chart, that's enough to get us to move all the way back up to pick 20 or 21. but I don't know if Ireland would want to go without a pick in the 2nd round...so.....

if we wanted to keep a 2nd rounder, you instead package our 2A and our 3A (77th overall, 205 pts). that's 685 pts, which is enough to get us into the 27-28 range. this plan seems more probable. Tank could still be there, as well as Eifert and Trufant. you could even throw in our 5A on top for an extra 33 pts to move up to the 24-25 range.

we could also pull this off by first moving down some in the 1st to pick up an extra 3rd. because if Ireland wants to get aggressive and pick twice in the 1st he might prefer to trade down a bit to get some more ammo. moving from #12 (1200 pts) to #16 (1000 pts) with STL for instance...they'd give up their 3rd (78th overall = 200 pts) so it's a perfectly even trade, 1200 for 1200. now we have three 3rd rounders so when we package one of them with a 2nd to move up we still have two left.

moving down from 12 is risky though, even if it is only 4 spots. I'd be too paranoid and stay put, especially if we're talking Rams here, if both Austin and Patterson were there at 12, Stl would probably be moving up to our spot for one of them anyway, and the other could go a couple slots later to Carolina at 14. and then of course a wildcard team could always move into the 13-15 range and steal em away.

 

He runs two routes. Jailbreak screen and a 9 route with multiple options along the stem. I've seen plenty of route-running that made my jaw drop, Tavon Austin is not one of those players to have elicited that reaction. He's fast and he runs what routes he knows adequately, which is more than a lot of college receivers can say.

You assume Dustin Keller is ever going to be matched up on a linebacker. I make no such assumption, especially considering what a below-average blocker he is, and the same can be said of Egnew. Clay's another beast altogether, but he's not really a TE anyway.

 

LOL. Yes, I'm sitting here telling you EXACTLY that. Show me Kenjon Barner running pivot routes & shake/jerk routes at an elite level. Show me Barner running effective slants, posts, post-corners, speed outs, deep outs, go routes, etc with success. Show me Barner understanding zone coverage and knowing how to work it as a receiver. Show me Barner setting up defenders as a receiver. Austin has spent 4 years grooming as a receiver. RECEIVER!! Barner is a running back. Do you understand the difference between the 2? Schematically Barner couldn't touch what Austin can do as a receiver, not with a hundred foot pole.

 

LOL, it's a direct response to something you said. Nice straw argument buddy.

 

He's a qualified receiver in his own right, but an x-factor is somebody that by definition breaks the status quo with what they do. Using Austin in a manner typical of NFL/WC offenses does not an x-factor make. If all you want is a blazing fast receiver in the slot, we don't have to draft anybody at all. If you want to draft somebody with 4.4 speed or better to compliment Wallace, I would trust Swope's knowledge of the offense, rapport with Tannehill, and route running ability over that of Austin's.

 

Man, you really don't know the first thing about Austin. His route running ability is one of his many strong suits.

 

yep, you're clueless.

 

West Virginia doesn't use either route. Not as part of an overall concept, not as an individual route, and not as a stem break in a 9 route.

EDIT: I stand corrected. I did a little quick research and apparently WV installed a switch concept with an underneath playside wheel out of necessity. The reason? Three of their running backs were out, including the starting RB and FB.

 

Thanks ! I'm with you on Patterson too. We have the talent now to be patient with him. As far as our dis-agreements on the GM..... i cherish them . I have a feeling they'll be over soon, Ireland is either going to be running for executive of the year or long gone this time next year.

So for only both our 2nds, and maybe a throw in.... you know if we were ever going to (attempt a) trade back into the 1st, it would be now. Two 3rds to fall back on.