I think a really genuinely elite middle linebacker is about as big an impact as you can get defensively. It's someone who can contribute in all areas of game-play, and help make other players look better.
We'll just have to see over the next three weeks whether we should even be talking about Te'o any more than we should've been talking about Cam Newton in 2011.
Obviously there are no guarantees, but the way he flows within the play, the speed and size, the leadership, the accountability he creates within the defense. Ray Lewis is who I see. Maybe others are right with Urlacher. Either way yeah I would move up to get him. He will probably go lower than he should anyway as middle backer gets undervalued in the draft.
That's a good point: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/LB-1980-now.htm Most MLBs/true linebackers don't go significantly higher than the Dolphins are probably going to pick. I'm not sure if there's a great case for T'eo to be the exception. I think a point to be interested is T'eo's speed and how it impacts his draft status. A lot of the previously mentioned guys were fast, I don't know T'eo will stack up with a lot of them. A lot of people don't seem to think T'eo is going to be in the 4.5-4.6 range a lot of those non-Rolando McClain guys were. I dunno, I'm not great at that game.
Problem is Dansby is a pretty damn good MLB. Is he great? No, but he is top 10. So if we draft Te'o and cut Dansby in order to free up cap space it is a lateral move. You are getting younger at a position, but I don't think Te'o will be better than Dansby in his first one to two years. I still don't see why people are so enamored with Te'o. He has a good make up and is a good leader but talent wise (and value wise), I'd rather have Alec Ogletree, Kevin Minter, or even a Shayne Skov later on in the draft. As someone mentioned I don't expect Te'o to have elite speed. Great player but I don't see Ray Lewis, Pat Willis, or Seau. If I had to say who he compares to most I would probably say Urlacher. That being said, I still don't think we should take a MLB with our first freaking pick. Even if you look at Kuechly (who also compares well to Te'o) he has 130 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack, and 3 FF. The Panthers are still rated 20th against the run AND he only had 5 plays that likely led to a turnover (INT, sack, FF). On the other hand you look at some of the DEs taken this past year Chandler Jones (6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) 9 plays that likely led to a turnover; Bruce Irvin (8 sacks, 1 FF) 9 plays that likely led to a turnover. This is a different NFL now-a-days. In my opinion, the most important thing to do on defense is to force turnovers or produce plays that will likely lead to turnovers.
More proof: Averages of the Top three defenses in terms of points allowed: Points allowed: 15.5 Plays that led to turnovers: 62.0 Average Plays from scrimmage: 801.33 Average Plays from scrimmage compared to Plays that led to turnovers: 12.92 Averages of the Worst three defenses in terms of points allowed: Points allowed: 29.93 Plays that led to turnovers: 61.67 Average Plays from scrimmage: 867.67 Average Plays from scrimmage compared to Plays that led to turnovers: 14 Once every 13 plays do the top defenses make plays that likely lead to turnovers, whereas the worse teams make plays that lead to turnovers every 14 plays. Keep in mind this relationship is compounded by the fact that offenses run about 65 plays a game.
I'm a pretty big Dansby fan, but I think T'eo is potentially a different kind of player. Karlos Dansby is a quality linebacker, and I don't have that much of a problem with what the Dolphins are paying him. He's overpaid, but I don't think that's all that problematic- It's the nature of free agency, and he is reasonably productive all things considered. Maybe I'm getting a bit unreasonable and fetishising a certain style of play, but Dansby isn't so much an middle linebacker as he is a linebacker. I'm talking very much about the "field general" cliche. Karlos Dansby is a fine jack of all trades, but I don't think he has the same kind of instincts and intellectual game(not to say he's dumb by any means) as some of these other guys. He's only been making defensive calls since 2011, and I don't know that he's the kind of tactician or sideline to sideline linebacker that some MLBs are. I think Urlacher is a much bigger physical freak than you give him credit for, and I don't think Luke Kuechly is really setting the world on fire just yet.
Was that because VD was flashy or an immature guy that was more interested in partying then getting the most out of his talent?
You dont necessarily have to cut Dansby. You can simply swing him over to WOLB where he has payed some in his career. You can cut Burnett or ask him to be in a platoon with Misi based on run (Misi) or pass (Burnett). Having 2 excellent coverage LB's (Dansby and Burnett) with teo could allow you to run a base D in certain passing situations meaning the other team has to adjust more to you then you do to them.
I think Burnett is better and more cost effective than Dansby right now. If you've got to get rid of someone, it's him. Dansby started his career playing what I believe was pretty close to Misi's position now. If you really wanna massage that whole thing I think you'd end up moving him back there.
That is a damn fine stat. But it also completely skews my understanding of turnovers. I mean, basically it's a draw. It's only the lowest three defenses defend against more plays. Along this line of thought, it's more important to get more 3 and outs or at least get off the field as fast as you can. I guess the moral is that each game is unique, and to couple all the games in a season together can be misleading. I still think you're onto something...
