Looking ahead to 2010 prospects

"ToddsPhins wrote:

:lol:
Fine...then 18+ is for merely trading future picks. LOL.

You know what would be the icing on this s#!tty cake- we finish 5-11, get the 7th pick, and Berry is taken 6th. :sidelol:
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Ugh dont say that!

"ToddsPhins wrote:

My rough personal top 4 based on team needs are (in no particular order yet):
Picking in the top 10 --Eric Berry
Picking in 11-18ish --Dez Bryant, Jermaine Gresham
Picking 19+ -- Rolando McClain

Edited: #5...picking 25+ --CJ Spiller :shifty:

Gresham will fall because of the injury.

McClain has some issues with regards turning and running and change of direction. I've seen ferries go round quicker at times.

"Boomer wrote:

Gresham will fall because of the injury.

McClain has some issues with regards turning and running and change of direction. I've seen ferries go round quicker at times.

I thought Gresh making it to 18 would be considered dropping. LOL.

Thanks, I'll have to keep an eye on McClain. I wasn't paying too much attention to those aspects, b/c ideally I was looking at him as our playmaking MIKE and leader of the defense..... and then figure out a playmaker WILL after. :dunno:

"Boomer wrote:

As opposed to.......?

You said why wait to draft Bryant. I said, because we have one pick. That one pick will be used on Eric Berry. I thought you knew that, my bad.

Fresno State runningback Ryan Matthews is apparently going to declare for the draft this year. Very early to say that but he's told Tony Pauline from what I understand.

"ToddsPhins wrote:

I thought Gresh making it to 18 would be considered dropping. LOL.

Thanks, I'll have to keep an eye on McClain. I wasn't paying too much attention to those aspects, b/c ideally I was looking at him as our playmaking MIKE and leader of the defense..... and then figure out a playmaker WILL after. :dunno:

I think if he'd have come out this year, he wouldn't have gone higher than 18. Coming off a serious knee injury and a year out, he's going to fall. He's not Keith Jackson.

"Ashraf wrote:

You said why wait to draft Bryant. I said, because we have one pick. That one pick will be used on Eric Berry. I thought you knew that, my bad.

Dude, are you mentally unstable?

"Boomer wrote:

Dude, are you mentally unstable?

You're quite the gentleman.

"Boomer wrote:

I think if he'd have come out this year, he wouldn't have gone higher than 18. Coming off a serious knee injury and a year out, he's going to fall. He's not Keith Jackson.

Well... then I'd say: Ronnie Brown is no Jim Brown....<despite the same last name> so does that mean he was unworthy of a 1st round pick from anyone? LOL. :tongue2:

Gresham's one of the best TE prospects to come out in the past 10 years, and history has shown that minor surgery means very little in the grand scheme of things. Great TE's help teams win, and good teams typically have <or like to have> great TEs.... which is why they re-sign them to huge contracts.

Heath Miller 6yr $35mill... Dallas Clark 6yr $36mill... Jason Witten 6yr $29mill... Gonzalez 5yr $35mill... Todd Heap 6yr $29mill... Gates 6yr $24mill... Cooley 6yr $30mill... Winslow 6yr $36 mill... Shockey 5yr $26mill...

That said..... 1st round TE's have had a virtual zero bust factor over the past 10 years. Most all of them have become highly productive, and coincedentally on winning teams. Compared to other 1st round positions, TE's might have the highest success rate in the NFL over the past 10 years. If percentages show that top TE's are typically successful and Gresham is as good or better talent than the names above, then it would be a huge bargain to get a $36mill Heath Miller caliber player for around $12mill. IMO of course. LOL.

We need a playmaking TE regardless.... would you rather have Robert Royal 4yr $10mill, Donald Lee 4yr $12mill, Randy McMichael 3yr $11mill, or Visanthe Shiancone 5yr $18mill than Gresham for a similar contract?

Question: If the Colts offered us Dallas Clark for a 1st, and his contract would only cost us 5yr $12 million.... would you take it? If you say yes.... then what FA would you use the extra $24mill in savings on? :lol:

"Ashraf wrote:

You're quite the gentleman.

Is that a yes or a no?

"ToddsPhins wrote:

Well... then I'd say: Ronnie Brown is no Jim Brown....<despite the same last name> so does that mean he was unworthy of a 1st round pick from anyone? LOL. :tongue2:

Gresham's one of the best TE prospects to come out in the past 10 years, and history has shown that minor surgery means very little in the grand scheme of things. Great TE's help teams win, and good teams typically have <or like to have> great TEs.... which is why they re-sign them to huge contracts.

Heath Miller 6yr $35mill... Dallas Clark 6yr $36mill... Jason Witten 6yr $29mill... Gonzalez 5yr $35mill... Todd Heap 6yr $29mill... Gates 6yr $24mill... Cooley 6yr $30mill... Winslow 6yr $36 mill... Shockey 5yr $26mill...

That said..... 1st round TE's have had a virtual zero bust factor over the past 10 years. Most all of them have become highly productive, and coincedentally on winning teams. Compared to other 1st round positions, TE's might have the highest success rate in the NFL over the past 10 years. If percentages show that top TE's are typically successful and Gresham is as good or better talent than the names above, then it would be a huge bargain to get a $36mill Heath Miller caliber player for around $12mill. IMO of course. LOL.

We need a playmaking TE regardless.... would you rather have Robert Royal 4yr $10mill, Donald Lee 4yr $12mill, Randy McMichael 3yr $11mill, or Visanthe Shiancone 5yr $18mill than Gresham for a similar contract?

Question: If the Colts offered us Dallas Clark for a 1st, and his contract would only cost us 5yr $12 million.... would you take it? If you say yes.... then what FA would you use the extra $24mill in savings on? :lol:

Not at all, but value changes because of extenuating circumstances. Generally the value on the tight end spot is less than that of the tailback when you think yoru average back touches the ball 30 times a game and most tight ends don't touch it more than about 5-8 times a game. Similarly, coming off an injury as Gresham is, his value, by the very nature of the business, is going to fall. He's fortunate that the position is a weak one in 2010, but regardless, he will tumble.

And he's not the great all round hope. He's not a particularly good blocker and I wouldn't call a season ending knee surgery a "minor" surgery: when a player has a knee injury that knocks him out for the season, keeps him on the sidelines for 6 months, etc. THAT affects his valuation. Always has done, always will. the single exception to that rule is Willis McGahee and there were vast, extenuating circumstances behind that.

"Boomer wrote:

Not at all, but value changes because of extenuating circumstances. Generally the value on the tight end spot is less than that of the tailback when you think yoru average back touches the ball 30 times a game and most tight ends don't touch it more than about 5-8 times a game. Similarly, coming off an injury as Gresham is, his value, by the very nature of the business, is going to fall. He's fortunate that the position is a weak one in 2010, but regardless, he will tumble.

And he's not the great all round hope. He's not a particularly good blocker and I wouldn't call a season ending knee surgery a "minor" surgery: when a player has a knee injury that knocks him out for the season, keeps him on the sidelines for 6 months, etc. THAT affects his valuation. Always has done, always will. the single exception to that rule is Willis McGahee and there were vast, extenuating circumstances behind that.

How about Cromartie going 18th to SD?
It could be considered "minor" if you consider a "full tear", "multiple tears", of "full reconstruction" to be major. I don't think of it as a serious issue bc I've had it done, and I was back to 100% within a few months. But I would agree that just having surgery alone could be considered serious.

To me, it just seems like there is an unusually high correlation between late 1st-early 2nd round picks becoming successful, playmaking TEs....and a similar correlation between great teams taking TEs in that range and being successful with them.

I agree TEs are directly involved in less plays...but how about indirectly? Does how a defense has to play us change by having a guy like Dallas Clark or Tony Gonzalez on the field? Do they help open up more short and underneath routes by drawing more coverage from LBs? Do they open up more intermediate to long passes by drawing more coverage from the safeties, allowing WRs to be in more 1 on 1 match ups? How did Clark affect or enhance Harrison's or Wayne's play/success?....or will his presence help with the earlier production from Austin Collie? Does his presence help Donald Brown out of the backfield? Does his presence keep LBs and Safeties a hair more honest allowing more success at running? Did it help Addai's? Does all of this in turn help open up playaction, screens, or draws? I thought it did, but I wasn't sure to exactly what extent and what value you associate to something abstract like this. :dunno:

Fasano can block....Nalbone can block...how many blocking TE's do we need? Not every TE on the team needs to be a road grader. LOL. Conservatism is what's getting us into trouble now. Many of the great teams in the NFL have TE's who are receiving threats but merely adequate blockers.

IMO, sacrifices can be made to ensure production and scoring, especially when we already have half the US deficit invested into our blocking ;). I think we can give run-blocking a rest for the time being. LOL.

"ToddsPhins wrote:

How about Cromartie going 18th to SD?
It could be considered "minor" if you consider a "full tear", "multiple tears", of "full reconstruction" to be major. I don't think of it as a serious issue bc I've had it done, and I was back to 100% within a few months. But I would agree that just having surgery alone could be considered serious.

To me, it just seems like there is an unusually high correlation between late 1st-early 2nd round picks becoming successful, playmaking TEs....and a similar correlation between great teams taking TEs in that range and being successful with them.

I agree TEs are directly involved in less plays...but how about indirectly? Does how a defense has to play us change by having a guy like Dallas Clark or Tony Gonzalez on the field? Do they help open up more short and underneath routes by drawing more coverage from LBs? Do they open up more intermediate to long passes by drawing more coverage from the safeties, allowing WRs to be in more 1 on 1 match ups? How did Clark affect or enhance Harrison's or Wayne's play/success?....or will his presence help with the earlier production from Austin Collie? Does his presence help Donald Brown out of the backfield? Does his presence keep LBs and Safeties a hair more honest allowing more success at running? Did it help Addai's? Does all of this in turn help open up playaction, screens, or draws? I thought it did, but I wasn't sure to exactly what extent and what value you associate to something abstract like this. :dunno:

He went 19th. ;)

I accept that there are exceptions to the rule, but a #1 CB with the potential of Cromartie is going to be higher rated than a TE who can't block very well. Plus he was 100% athis pro day and you only have to look at the numbers to see why he went so high. Essentially he went higher off an injury year than Gresham would have gone in 2009, uninjured. That's just the value of the TE.

I certainly agree that TE's play more of a role in terms of how you manage them on the field, but the fact is thata TE who is coming off an injury year, that plays in a wide open offense and who has some big old blocking issues, isn't going high in R1. Look where Witten or Clark went. Look where a much more rounded TE like Todd Heap went.

"ToddsPhins wrote:

Fasano can block....Nalbone can block...how many blocking TE's do we need? Not every TE on the team needs to be a road grader. LOL. Conservatism is what's getting us into trouble now. Many of the great teams in the NFL have TE's who are receiving threats but merely adequate blockers.

IMO, sacrifices can be made to ensure production and scoring, especially when we already have half the US deficit invested into our blocking ;). I think we can give run-blocking a rest for the time being. LOL.

You draft a TE that high in the modern game, you better be damn sure he's a dual threat.

"Boomer wrote:

You draft a TE that high in the modern game, you better be damn sure he's a dual threat.

So then was it a mistake for the Jets taking Keller, Chicago taking Olsen, and Pitt taking Miller? :dunno:
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I would rather have Dez Bryant or Berry over a TE to be honest.

"BuckeyeKing wrote:

I would rather have Dez Bryant or Berry over a TE to be honest.

Absolutely!! I would too. Especially since that would mean we'd be picking Top 10. LOL. If that were the case, I would use a high 2nd or future 1st on Gresham. Imagine Dez and Gresham together!! It would take surgery to remove Henne's boner. :lol:

If we draft Dez then that means we could trade Ginn or Bess to keep from having to use a 1st. ????

Edited: Oops...removing it might be a little excessive....maybe just relieve it instead. :D

"Boomer wrote:

Is that a yes or a no?

That's a GFY.

"ToddsPhins wrote:

Absolutely!! I would too. Especially since that would mean we'd be picking Top 10. LOL. If that were the case, I would use a high 2nd or future 1st on Gresham. Imagine Dez and Gresham together!! It would take surgery to remove Henne's boner. :lol:

If we draft Dez then that means we could trade Ginn or Bess to keep from having to use a 1st. ????

Edited: Oops...removing it might be a little excessive....maybe just relieve it instead. :D

Maybe even Camarillo. Imagine Bryant on one side and Ginn on the other.

The more I think about who we are going to pick next year the more Jerry Hughes name comes up. I haven't watched him play but from what I have read about him and just my gut tells me he will be a dolphin next year. I want dez though fwiw. Logically though they will take a lb. Always seem to.

Strategically, if we do finish 6-10/5-11, we would be making a mistake to not pick either one of the Stud NT or a passrushing OLB when you choose that high you have to have value for a long time out of the player to me that trumps even "need" at Wr.

"padre31 wrote:

Strategically, if we do finish 6-10/5-11, we would be making a mistake to not pick either one of the Stud NT or a passrushing OLB when you choose that high you have to have value for a long time out of the player to me that trumps even "need" at Wr.

Depends on how they feel about Solai.

I still think you Take Berry or Bryant.

We would have a very good Receiving core with Bryant as our number 1 Ginn at 2 and Bess as the slot guy.

I think we need Berry more however.

Imagine having Eric Berry, Vontae Davis, and Sean Smith in your secondary for the next 10 years.

Okay ash. You have me salivating at the thought of those three in miami