We can each pick a player (or pick two - one player from the East and one from the West) and then post how they did after the game. What do you think? I think we have enough members to cover all the major players. alen1, Conuficus, Boomer, ckparrothead, Aqua4Ever04, Vengeful Odin, Stitches, padre31, joeydolfan, RealDriscoll, Biggtyme13, jwong, NJFINSFAN1, BuckeyeKing, jim1, Jaj, Regan21286, Roman529, DonShula84, Mile High Fin, Silverphin, Vendigo, PerfectTeam, anlgp, PMZQ, Frayser, PENNSYLVANIADOLPHAN, Rick 1966, RonnieBrownTown, KB21, pocoloco, dolfan32323, Motion, djphinfan, New Era, CANEPHINS, bluegrassbubba, RalphX19Xoday, dolphinkev, etc. I apologize if I forgot anybody. All are welcome to participate. Just pick a player or two. I would love to hear what you guys think. Who wants in? Here's the roster for the East. 1 Darius Passmore WR 6’3 188 Marshall 2 Greg Orton WR 6’3 199 Purdue 3 Deon Butler WR 5’10 168 Penn State 4 C.J. Spillman DB 6’0 192 Marshall 5 Jake Richardson P 6’1 208 Miami 6 Curtis Taylor DB 6’3 204 LSU 7 Brian Hoyer QB 6’3 215 Michigan State 8 Brandon Underwood DB 6’1 190 Cincinnati 10 Chase Daniel QB 6’0 225 Missouri 12 Lawrence Sidbury DL 6’4 265 Richmond 14 Hunter Cantwell QB 6’5 236 Louisville 19 Tyrell Sutton RB 5’9 190 Northwestern 20 Marlon Lucky RB 6’0 215 Nebraska 21 Keith Fitzhugh DB 5’11 205 Mississippi State 23 Morgan Trent DB 6’1 188 Michigan 27 Don Carey DB 6’1 180 Norfolk State 28 Javarris Williams RB 5’11 220 Tennessee State 29 Bradley Fletcher DB 6’2 200 Iowa 30 Collin Mooney FB 5’10 247 Army 33 Dannell Ellerbe LB 6’1 232 Georgia 34 Michael Tauiliili LB 5’11 235 Duke 35 Robert Francois LB 6’2 253 Boston College 36 Courtney Greene DB 6’2 215 Rutgers 38 Stryker Sulak DL 6’5 250 Missouri 43 Graham Gano K 6’1 197 Florida State 44 Mortty Ivy LB 6’3 236 West Virginia 51 Johnny Williams LB 6’3 244 Kentucky 52 Jasper Brinkley LB 6’2 275 South Carolina 53 Clinton McDonald DL 6’3 285 Memphis 56 Augustus Parrish OL 6’5 305 Kent State 63 Edwin Williams OL 6’3 315 Maryland 64 Cecil Newton OL 6’3 300 Tennessee State 66 Etienne Legare DL 6’4 265 Laval 67 Terrance Taylor DL 6’0 319 Michigan 70 Ryan Durand OL 6’5 303 Syracuse 71 Seth Olsen OL 6’5 305 Iowa 72 Alex Boone OL 6’8 312 Ohio State 75 Andy Kemp OL 6’6 315 Wisconsin 76 Jaimie Thomas OL 6’4 330 Maryland 77 Jamon Meredith OL 6’5 301 South Carolina 78 Ramon Foster OL 6’8 325 Tennessee 80 Aaron Kelly WR 6’5 190 Clemson 81 Taurus Johnson WR 6’1 205 South Florida 85 David Johnson TE 6’2 270 Arkansas State 88 Nick Walker TE 6’5 248 Alabama 89 Brian Mandeville TE 6’7 253 Northeastern 90 Orion Martin DL 6’2 252 Virginia Tech 91 Sammie Lee Hill DL 6’4 329 Stillman 92 Matt Shaughnessy DL 6’6 253 Wisconsin 95 Darryl Richard DL 6’4 290 Georgia Tech Here's the roster for the West. 1 Manuel Johnson WR 6’0 183 Oklahoma 2 Ryan Palmer DB 5’10 186 Texas 3 Darcel McBath DB 6’1 197 Texas Tech 4 Kevin Ellison DB 6’1 230 USC 5 Gartrell Johnson RB 6’0 227 Colorado State 6 Jason Williams LB 6’3 235 Western Illinois 7 Tom Brandstater QB 6’5 225 Fresno State 9 Anthony Felder LB 6’3 235 California 10 Mike Thomas WR 5’8 195 Arizona 11 Jorvorskie Lane FB 6’0 285 Texas A&M 12 Stephen McGee QB 6’3 207 Texas A&M 13 Mike Reilly QB 6’3 212 Central Washington 17 Matt Fodge P 6’1 195 Oklahoma State 18 David Buehler K 6’2 225 USC 19 Sammie Stroughter WR 6’0 186 Oregon State 20 Al Afalava DB 5’11 212 Oregon State 21 Ryan Mouton DB 5’10 180 Hawaii 22 Lendy Holmes DB 6’1 201 Oklahoma 23 Aaron Brown RB 6’1 196 TCU 25 Cary Harris DB 6’0 180 USC 36 Brandon Hughes DB 5’11 178 Oregon State 39 Jason Phillips LB 6’1 234 TCU 41 Ian Johnson RB 6’0 196 Boise State 43 Kaluka Maiava LB 6’0 230 USC 49 Nick Reed DL 6’2 248 Oregon 50 Jon Cooper OL 6’3 290 Oklahoma 51 Victor Butler LB 6’2 238 Oregon State 53 Phillip Hunt DL 6’2 260 Houston 55 Worrell Williams LB 6’0 250 California 57 Fenuki Tupou OL 6’6 322 Oregon 58 Juan Garcia OL 6’3 305 Washington 65 Simeon Rottier OL 6’6 286 Alberta 66 Louis Vasquez OL 6’6 335 Texas Tech 68 Nick Sundberg LS 6’0 244 California 71 Dan Gay, IV OL 6’5 282 Baylor 73 Cedric Dockery OL 6’4 315 Texas 74 Travis Bright OL 6’5 329 BYU 76 Ray Feinga OL 6’5 331 BYU 79 Sebastian Vollmer OL 6’8 315 Houston 81 Jarett Dillard WR 5’11 185 Rice 82 Marko Mitchell WR 6’3 210 Nevada 84 Jared Bronson TE 6’4 260 Central Washington 85 Bear Pascoe TE 6’5 260 Fresno State 87 Mark Hafner HB 6’3 235 Houston 90 Jarron Gilbert DL 6’6 280 San Jose State 91 Pannel Egboh DL 6’6 270 Stanford 92 Michael Bennett DL 6’4 261 Texas A&M 95 Ra’Shon Harris DL 6’5 321 Oregon 98 Roy Miller DL 6’2 295 Texas 99 John Faletoese DL 6’3 292 UC Davis
If nobody minds I'll take Robert Francois from Boston College since I'll be paying particular attention to him anyway.
Hahaha, had to laugh, I was going to pick one player from each squad and try to avoid a player someone else had mentioned previously. I was going to take Francois. Its all good. I liked what I saw from him in a few games this year and felt he may have gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because BCs other Linebackers get a lot of attention. I will take Jasper Brinkley LB 6’2 275 South Carolina Ray Feinga OL 6’5 331 BYU
Murphy's Law, right? I'll take Lawrence Sidbury if you want Francois. I like your idea of one player from each squad. I'll also take Anthony Felder from the West since I missed his bowl game.
Cool. So I've got these two. 35 Robert Francois LB 6’2 253 Boston College 9 Anthony Felder LB 6’3 235 California
Works for me, Francois is peaking my interest due to the lack of depth at MLB this year and he has the size the front office likes for the position. Made in that thumper mode if you know what I mean.
I really like this punter, and he is also a really good field kicker and someone who booms kickoff (unlike Dan Carpenter): 43 Graham Gano K 6’1 197 Florida State I will scout Gano.....I have heard he could be drafted in the 5th round. I just heard Ramses Barden, Cal-Poly's WR, is opting for the Senior Bowl over the East-West.
I'm interested in Deon Butler for sure. I don't foresee us taking him, but I want him to succeed. And I think he can.
With the way he punts the ball the 5th or 6th round sounds about right for Gano. The bowl game against Wisconsin he was just mad sick, first 3 punts downed inside the 3 yard line.
Stinker, Brinkley was the one to watch. Assuming the game is in the evening (some of us have jobs ya know..) Two from the East Courtney Greene S Rutgers #36 #89. Brandon Mandeville, Te Northeastern Two from the West #68 Sunderberg, LongSnapper, California, we've forgotten Denny botching two snaps against the Jets, Sparano hasn't, to be sure. #53 Phil Hunt Dline Houston.
BuckeyeKing, the practices started on Monday. Graham Gano has an amazing leg. This season for FSU he did all the punting, kickoffs, and field goals. Two players in one. Deon Butler is very underrated.
The game is at 3pm CST this Saturday on ESPN2. That's 4pm (Eastern) and 1pm (Pacific). http://www.shrinegame.com/
Darn, I'd hoped it was a night game, I won't be home and in front of the TV...err..."scouting device" until almost 6pm... Scratch me off the list fellas..
Damn are they reshowing Day 1 and DAy 2 anytime soon? For some reason I thought it started after the AFC/NFC championship game.
I'll take... 8 Brandon Underwood DB 6’1 190 Cincinnati 27 Don Carey DB 6’1 180 Norfolk State 29 Bradley Fletcher DB 6’2 200 Iowa 33 Dannell Ellerbe LB 6’1 232 Georgia 36 Courtney Greene DB 6’2 215 Rutgers 43 Graham Gano K 6’1 197 Florida State 52 Jasper Brinkley LB 6’2 275 South Carolina 76 Jaimie Thomas OL 6’4 330 Maryland 77 Jamon Meredith OL 6’5 301 South Carolina 78 Ramon Foster OL 6’8 325 Tennessee 89 Brian Mandeville TE 6’7 253 Northeastern 92 Matt Shaughnessy DL 6’6 253 Wisconsin 95 Darryl Richard DL 6’4 290 Georgia Tech 1 Manuel Johnson WR 6’0 183 Oklahoma 2 Ryan Palmer DB 5’10 186 Texas 10 Mike Thomas WR 5’8 195 Arizona 11 Jorvorskie Lane FB 6’0 285 Texas A&M 19 Sammie Stroughter WR 6’0 186 Oregon State 21 Ryan Mouton DB 5’10 180 Hawaii 25 Cary Harris DB 6’0 180 USC 36 Brandon Hughes DB 5’11 178 Oregon State 39 Jason Phillips LB 6’1 234 TCU 57 Fenuki Tupou OL 6’6 322 Oregon 76 Ray Feinga OL 6’5 331 BYU 79 Sebastian Vollmer OL 6’8 315 Houston 81 Jarett Dillard WR 5’11 185 Rice 84 Jared Bronson TE 6’4 260 Central Washington 90 Jarron Gilbert DL 6’6 280 San Jose State 91 Pannel Egboh DL 6’6 270 Stanford You guys can have the rest.
Is Chase Daniel playing the Senior Bowl as well? Kind of surprised that a guy with his pedigree/numbers wouldn't get an invite to the big game.
Not to highjack the thread or anything but on their forums this guy broke down 25 NFL busts. At first I thought I clicked on a Mock draft but it had me rolling. He's got some sound analyst but his values on the prospects.
Peria Jerry has no pass rush skills? O.K. fine, then who does then. I'd like to see that list right now. One note, neither Michael Johnson or Orakpo are on that list.
I saw the saw list, figured it was so much Garbage I did not bother to post. Did you see the response from the moderator of that board just below his post?
What should hit home is what he says: Historically only 1/3 of the first day picks make it. The top 64 will only have 1/3 make it. Really? T Lets look at this a little more in depth for about a millisecond. They've only had that format I believe for 1 YEAR. So he has historical data for one year, which proves nothing other than aberrations are possible, and it certainly doesn't represent a trend or trends of any kind due to the sheer mass of humanity selected. One year as a sample size in this scenario is not enough, regardless of the total number of players selected. He also never says the exact sample size; how many years this was done, and during what era etc. From how he has put it, it would be only last year. If so, then how can you judge if they made it? It has only been one year, how is that possible? I can show that every team in the league did not only hit on 1/3 of their picks last year. Right now that rate is higher. I have shown some my pet project that I have been working on, and frankly his numbers don't make sense. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but again he never stated the sample size. Also, typically the success rate is around 40% overall. So numerically speaking, if the success rate is only 1/3, then the rest of the draft must be over 40% success rate to compensate for the abysmal record of the first 64. Say there are 300 players chosen; 64 equates to 21.33% of the total draft choices taken. The other 78.66% of the draft has a higher success rate than the top 64; who are typically the "best" players chosen? That flies in the face of the declining rate of return normally seen as the draft progresses. Somewhere there must be a higher level of success to get that 1/3 rate of the top 64 to the known average of around 40%. So which round does that occur in? Also, I'd like to know the low rate of return in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds factor into this. Their rate is lower than 1/3, so again my query is where is this higher rate of success located to make up for now 5 out of 7 rounds having less than 40% success rate. In layman's terms these numbers don't add up.
Conu, the top 64 typically contains players who have high "bust" factors, like Qb's or Lb's or Rb's...great athletes but not translatable to the NFL. Wereas the rest of the draft contain the the ugly grunts who can stick around like Olinemen or DT's? Qb's and Rb's make up maybe...8% of the top 64, add in Wr (especially Florida or FSU Wr's) and you could find your missing 12% or so.
I don't have the time to do this right now in its entirety but let me put it to you this way. I have every team's drafting history for the last five years in front of me. Cardinals - 0 (10 picks) Falcons - 1 Jimmy Williams (11 picks) Baltimore - 1 Dan Cody (9 picks) Buffalo - 0 (9 picks) Carolina - 1 Eric Shelton (9 picks) Chicago - 1 Dan Bazuin (10 picks) Roughly a 5th of the league = 58 picks, with 4 players not in the league. = 14.5%.............. thats so far, but it doesn't look good. The next 6 teams would have to double that at minimum to make the number rise. If I get a bur up my *** I will finish this later on.
I'll join in. I'll take. 38 Stryker Sulak DL 6’5 250 Missouri 63 Edwin Williams OL 6’3 315 Maryland 90 Orion Martin DL 6’2 252 Virginia Tech
My mistake Conu, I had what you were attempting reversed. You are looking for the higher percentage of non bust players in later rounds. The guys who make it, but are chosen later in the draft.
Here's the other thing I was trying to get at. If the number for those 6 teams was 14.5%, do you know what the next 6 teams would have to be like to double the overall percentage (make it 29% overall) for the now, 12 teams? You think double right? Check it out. Before 4 players out of 58 didn't make it. If double it and made 8 out of the next 58 then you'd have 12 out of 116 that didn't make it. That works out to be 10.34%. The % dropped even with more players busting out. Its the numbers game. The greater the end number becomes, the exponentionally bigger the number of busts must become. So again if you want to get to 29%, you'd need 33.64 players (over 8 times the 4 for the first 58)to bust out to get exactly 29% worth of busting out players for 116. Now that is not the top 64 players as 116 is a good bit more, but the numbers would still have to behave in the same fashion. 29 more players out of the next 58 selections would have to bust out - 50% of all players selected would be gone. He's saying that 33% of the top 64 will bust out. Thats 21.12 players for exactly 33% for the 64 players chosen. 12 players away from the total I needed to get 29% for 116 players.
Ehh...but Conu, the average NFL career is maybe 3 years or so? Now what would be really interesting is seeing the percentages of Tuna players that busted, say from the Jets period forward. Because IIRC, Tuna was really good at using all 7 or more draft choices and creating players out of them...the polar opposite of Pioli/Belicheck, when a guy doesn't make it in NE, they don't make it...period.
I'll be watchin Big Red...i'll see who stands out but i'll put some focus on T taylor from michigan and alex boone from ohio state.
