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Kiper's first mock (1-12)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by CWBIII, Jan 20, 2010.

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  1. CWBIII

    CWBIII Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    1) St. Louis Rams Record: 1-15 - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

    Nobody questions that the top need for the Rams is a quarterback. But unless St. Louis trades down -- an extremely difficult proposition on multiple levels -- it shouldn't take a quarterback with its first pick. Suh is maybe the most dominating defensive tackle I've seen in 32 years of doing this. He can be effective immediately for the Rams.

    2) Detroit Lions Record: 2-14 - Gerald McCoy*, DT, Oklahoma

    Getting McCoy both fills a big need for the Lions and is an extraordinarily good consolation prize for any team unable to get Suh. McCoy makes his living in opponents' backfields and is such a talent he could have landed in this position last year had he declared as a redshirt sophomore.

    3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Record: 3-13 - Eric Berry*, S, Tennessee

    This is very early for a safety to go off the board, but Berry is that kind of talent. A player compared often (not unfairly) to Ed Reed, Berry is a difference-making safety headed to a league that has seen those types (Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders) become more and more notable in recent years.

    4) Washington Redskins Record: 4-12 - Sam Bradford*, QB, Oklahoma

    Mike Shanahan and the Redskins can get a quarterback here who might have been the top player taken had he opted to come out last year. The Redskins need to find their franchise quarterback, and when healthy, Bradford is an exceptionally accurate passer with an underrated arm. Shanahan also hit on his last QB selection, when he drafted Jay Cutler in Denver.

    5) Kansas City Chiefs Record: 4-12 - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

    I think the Chiefs could use help at safety as well, but Berry likely won't fall this far, and they'd be reaching on either of the two other safeties with first-round grades. Okung could solve two problems, making him a good value. He also could step in at LT and allow the Chiefs to move Brandon Albert to the right side. A pick that can pay immediate dividends for the Chiefs.

    6) Seattle Seahawks Record: 5-11 - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

    Many in Seattle will view the offensive line as a greater need, but Morgan fills another huge hole for a team that simply couldn't get to the quarterback in 2009. He represents great value because he can rush the passer, is productive against the run and can even drop back -- a versatile talent. Pete Carroll knows defense and should love what Morgan can offer.

    7) Cleveland Browns Record: 5-11 -Joe Haden*, CB, Florida

    I'm not convinced the Browns will be willing to draft a quarterback simply because the position is unsettled. In Haden, they can't go wrong with by far the top CB on the board, a player they can plug in from day one. A deft cover corner and great tackler, Haden is the complete package.

    8) Oakland Raiders Record: 5-11 - Anthony Davis*, OT, Rutgers

    Davis might not be the most complete tackle in the first round, but he is the most naturally gifted and should get better. Great feet, ideal size and he has the ability to maul defenders in the run game. After a whiff in the first round last year, the Raiders should address a big need here.

    9) Buffalo Bills Record: 6-10 -Jimmy Clausen*, QB, Notre Dame

    People will debate Clausen's merits long after he shakes the commissioner's hand, but he has continued to improve, has showed toughness, has an NFL arm and, perhaps most importantly, has experience under center in a pro-style offense. That was a key for Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, and is a huge consideration for scouts.

    10) Denver Broncos (from Chicago) Record: 7-9 -Dez Bryant*, WR, Oklahoma State

    In all likelihood, Brandon Marshall is headed elsewhere, so the Broncos will attempt to fill the void with the best deep threat in the draft. Bryant has great size and was unstoppable in the Big 12. He represents an immediate weapon in the passing game.

    11) Jacksonville Jaguars Record: 7-9 - Jason Pierre-Paul*, DE, South Florida

    This is no place to draft a guy like Tim Tebow just to sell tickets. Pierre-Paul is local enough and could be the Mario Williams of this draft class, a raw talent but one with remarkable athleticism and an incredible burst off the line. Could be a terror for QBs in the future.

    12) Miami Dolphins Record: 7-9 - Rolando McClain*, LB, Alabama

    A potential home run for Miami, which needs an inside linebacker and could get the best one in the whole draft after the top 10. The Dolphins also could go after Bryant if he were to fall to them here.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=4841432
     
  2. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    It does seem to be Bryant or McClain right now which is fine with me.
     
  3. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    McClain at 12 would be a **** in my pants type moment.
     
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  4. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ah, 'tis the draft season when Mel Kiper's name appears in a cloud of hair.

    His mock drafts are entertaining, but the guy has something like a 25% success rate, so I wouldn't bother taking anything written here as gospel. After all, there's a 3/4ths chance that it's incorrect.
     
  5. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    I scrolled and saw Bryant went at 10 and I was like "****, ****, mother ****ing, ****, ****!"

    But then I scrolled down 2 more picks and I was alleviated somewhat. McClain is a great consolation prize.
     
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  6. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly!!!!
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    All that being said, although one of the Guru's in here swears that kiper is the best thing since pockets on shirts, I think he's a meathead and gets too much play by being a "Shock" type of guy.
     
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  7. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I see McClain as a decent consolation prize as well. Although I'm not sure if he or Thomas would be the smarter choice.
     
  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Rams really should take Suh as Clausen is just not #! overall Qb imho.

    They have the #33, that would be a good place to pick up a Qb.

    As for Ro McClain...heck yes...welcome to Miami!

    And My.02 but Jason PP has a incredibly high bust potential, if the Jags take him they sort of are buyng the car without the test drive.

    Which would also mean Q Groves or Richardson would not be in a good place in Jax.
     
  9. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    No it really wouldnt be a good place. In the past 10 years you have 1 QB to come out of round 2 a success - Drew Brees, and it took him years to ascend to his current level. Chad Henne had a good season Kevin Kolb has flashed, and thats it. Its a QB wasteland once you get out of the first round.

    If you need a QB, you take him in the first, end of story imo. The Rams need to bring in someone and just be done with it, or they will continue to be a mediocre franchise for years to come, with or without Suh.
     
  10. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    To be fair, Raiders have been picking in top portion and they screw up every MOCK, year after year, by taking the likes of Darrius Heyward-Bey.

    And trade ups like what the JETS did screw the pooch too.

    So, all in all these top 12 are hard to argue with.....will it happen like this...probably not, but on 1/20/10 its not like he had other directions to go.
     
  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'd say just the opposite Rd 1 is Qb Bustland, rds 2 and 3 are much more productive.

    We took Chad Henne were?

    Drew Brees?

    http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackbusts.php
     
  12. mroz

    mroz Rosen is a franchise QB Club Member

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    Thomas would be a smarter choice IMO because it would comeplete the secondary... making it a strenght of the team.
     
  13. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The actions of two teams does not knock an accuracy rate all the down to 25%.
     
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  14. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    On 1/20/10 who is higher than 25%???
     
  15. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The problem is that Kiper is 25% at the end of April.
     
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  16. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    ehhh......darts on a dart board really when 32 NFL WARROOMS/clubs are making random decisions and over 224 kids are getting their names called, etc.

    never have tracked who the BEST of the BEST are at this prediction stuff...so couldnt tell you if 25% is meaningful.
     
  17. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Read Gosselin the day before the draft. Means you won't have to watch the stuff yourself.
     
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  18. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Not fair, they have 10 people working on the mocks....:lol:

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    /quote Monty Python

    You are a very silly person and I'm not going to talk to you anymore.

    /end Monty Python
     
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  20. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    For what it is worth, this site "claims" to be the best predictors :lol: even post their numbers on the front page! lol

    http://ourlads.com/
     
  21. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    So over the last 5yrs the best is 26.4% and Kipers is 2nd @ 25.2% :lol::lol: yeah, what a bum!
     
  22. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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  23. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    25% is abysmal, but the entire field is terrible.

    Edit: Looks like the link was already posted. Okay then, you see what I mean.

    Son of Edit: Nope, two different articles, same source, same topic. Both are informative and make the point very well.
     
  24. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher Club Member

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    On ESPN today, the word was that Chan Gailey would stick with Trent Edwards as he's the kind of guy that "can get the most out of him."
     
  25. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I dont know, if the BEST of the BEST is 26/27% on what they are grading...and the guy you badmouth is 2nd/3rd and just a tick below.....harsh to use the excuse that ALL are TERRIBLE.

    Are you claiming you are better than this, over 27% (if so how much better), over the last 5 or 6 drafts from a mock to reality standpoint?

    Seems a lot to do about nothing...its a mock, and Kiper is right up there on trying to be as accurate as the next guy is trying. Nothing to rip him for.
     
  26. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would probably lean towards Thomas myself, but the argument for McClain is that he's a "special" player that will have more impact than a typical ILB. I don't rate him that highly but I can't say it's factually incorrect. It's really an opinion thing. I have a problem with those who can't understand that some positions have more impact than others b/c that's just willful ignorance, but a difference of opinion on whether a good to very good player is potentially "elite" is a reasonable opinion no matter which side you're on.
     
  27. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Good. I would actually hate for them to get Jimmy Clause or Bradford.
     
  28. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, the thing of it is, Will Allen will be ready for Training Camp, if not earlier, it would make sense to move him to FS and then take McClain to shore up the ILB position.

    Two birds with one stone as it were.
     
  29. Desides

    Desides Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When the highest accuracy rate is 28%, considering all the inside sources and top-quality scouting and identification of team needs and draft trends these mock experts supposedly possess, yes, their performance is terrible.

    The standard "for entertainment purposes only" disclaimer used by media outlets when they pick against the spread should also be applied to their mock drafts.

    Do you see me posting a mock draft?
     
  30. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    I think where people sometimes get confused with mocks is that often they are there to address who the team should pick assuming things break right and the player they most need falls to them and that often it is simply a mixture of the best 32 players on the board and an arrangement of where they should go. they dont account for moves up or down and they dont really account for budget offseason signings that the team may have a different role in mind for and theres simply no way to know that role until its on the field.

    You may then ask what the purpose of a mock is and I would say I dont know.

    What kiper IS great at isnt mocks, its evaluation of players, plain and simple. he does a pretty good job of it overall.
     
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  31. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    This is about the 3rd or fourth time Ive seen you post it and the more I see it the more it grows on me. however nickel CB then becomes a serious need because Im not comfortable with Nate Jones on say Julian Edelman etc.
     
  32. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Julian Edelman is looking like a matchup problem regardless.
    I personally like Nate Jones, and I think he does a TERRIFIC job with what he has.... In fact, I like the idea of him playing Nickelback much more than I like the idea of Will Allen playing FS. Thats not a good thing IMO.

    Back on Edelman, chances are pretty good our Nickle wont be lined up on him for least one game next year..... Wesley Wanker is gonna miss some serious time....AND, are you ready for this........ I have a funny feeling Moss might not even be in NE next year....... :leaving2:

    BTW: I saw a spreadsheet on Cap hits salary wise next year for NE. Anybody else believe Moss is significantly higher than anybody else, including Tammy Brady?.. Its true :up:
     
  33. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    Jones lacks long speed and if he misses an initial jam hes dead. As a 4th CB hes ok and hes a very good blitzer.

    A lot of CB's make the FS conversion, Eugene Wilson and Carnell Lake some of the more successful ones in recent memory. Will Allen probably could make the conversion though Im not sure its in our plans. Just that I think Padre's suggestion is a valid idea.
     
  34. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That also provides another FS option depending on what they're expecting out of Clemons.

    If that was the team's plan for Allen then the draft plan might be to hope for Bryant (1st rd) and Spikes (2nd rd) but have McClain as the consolation prize.
     
  35. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    There is that name though B14...Jason Allen...quitely he had a really good season as the dime Cb, he has the tools for the Nickel.

    Or W Allen could play nickel and Clemmons could play Safety in those situations, Will Allen if healthy gives us alot of flexibility and...he's paid for, no signing bonus or draft pick to fill that role.

    To me it makes sense, Vontae and Smith starting Cb's Will Allen safety, that would allow for a tremendous amount of coverage flexibility, he could play S, Cb, or nickel back, and he was our most effective Cb blitzer for years.
     
  36. #1dolphinsfan

    #1dolphinsfan New Member

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    McClain would be a dream come true
     
  37. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I quite prefer no pockets on my shirts ;) and Elvis is not nearly as good as his reputation imo , especially the further away from the draft it is.
     
  38. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    You are on a roll tonight padre I can't help but agree on the Will Allen move to safety
    It make sense really
    good range
    we know he is probably penciled in as nickel corner
    I would love to see Allen as a FS
     
  39. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Jason Allen is just interesting to me, not sure where he fits in the big picture, or if he fits in the big picture, but as a role player who has made huge strides.

    Not saying we let Nate Jones walk and bump JA into the secondary rotation, but it would not surprise me if it happened.
     
  40. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Moderator Staff Member Club Member

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    Eh, I'm not sure I buy the notion that Will Allen tackles well enough to be a FS. Jason Allen, maybe, but he's probably so cross-wired from all that moves that one more might just cause him to explode.

    I'd rather take a stab at a Morgan Burnett, Nate Allen, or Larry Asante in the draft.
     

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