Kiper's first mock (1-12)
58 replies
CWBIIIsubscriberOP1) St. Louis Rams Record: 1-15 - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Nobody questions that the top need for the Rams is a quarterback. But unless St. Louis trades down -- an extremely difficult proposition on multiple levels -- it shouldn't take a quarterback with its first pick. Suh is maybe the most dominating defensive tackle I've seen in 32 years of doing this. He can be effective immediately for the Rams.
2) Detroit Lions Record: 2-14 - Gerald McCoy*, DT, Oklahoma
Getting McCoy both fills a big need for the Lions and is an extraordinarily good consolation prize for any team unable to get Suh. McCoy makes his living in opponents' backfields and is such a talent he could have landed in this position last year had he declared as a redshirt sophomore.
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Record: 3-13 - Eric Berry*, S, Tennessee
This is very early for a safety to go off the board, but Berry is that kind of talent. A player compared often (not unfairly) to Ed Reed, Berry is a difference-making safety headed to a league that has seen those types (Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders) become more and more notable in recent years.
4) Washington Redskins Record: 4-12 - Sam Bradford*, QB, Oklahoma
Mike Shanahan and the Redskins can get a quarterback here who might have been the top player taken had he opted to come out last year. The Redskins need to find their franchise quarterback, and when healthy, Bradford is an exceptionally accurate passer with an underrated arm. Shanahan also hit on his last QB selection, when he drafted Jay Cutler in Denver.
5) Kansas City Chiefs Record: 4-12 - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
I think the Chiefs could use help at safety as well, but Berry likely won't fall this far, and they'd be reaching on either of the two other safeties with first-round grades. Okung could solve two problems, making him a good value. He also could step in at LT and allow the Chiefs to move Brandon Albert to the right side. A pick that can pay immediate dividends for the Chiefs.
6) Seattle Seahawks Record: 5-11 - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Many in Seattle will view the offensive line as a greater need, but Morgan fills another huge hole for a team that simply couldn't get to the quarterback in 2009. He represents great value because he can rush the passer, is productive against the run and can even drop back -- a versatile talent. Pete Carroll knows defense and should love what Morgan can offer.
7) Cleveland Browns Record: 5-11 -Joe Haden*, CB, Florida
I'm not convinced the Browns will be willing to draft a quarterback simply because the position is unsettled. In Haden, they can't go wrong with by far the top CB on the board, a player they can plug in from day one. A deft cover corner and great tackler, Haden is the complete package.
8) Oakland Raiders Record: 5-11 - Anthony Davis*, OT, Rutgers
Davis might not be the most complete tackle in the first round, but he is the most naturally gifted and should get better. Great feet, ideal size and he has the ability to maul defenders in the run game. After a whiff in the first round last year, the Raiders should address a big need here.
9) Buffalo Bills Record: 6-10 -Jimmy Clausen*, QB, Notre Dame
People will debate Clausen's merits long after he shakes the commissioner's hand, but he has continued to improve, has showed toughness, has an NFL arm and, perhaps most importantly, has experience under center in a pro-style offense. That was a key for Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, and is a huge consideration for scouts.
10) Denver Broncos (from Chicago) Record: 7-9 -Dez Bryant*, WR, Oklahoma State
In all likelihood, Brandon Marshall is headed elsewhere, so the Broncos will attempt to fill the void with the best deep threat in the draft. Bryant has great size and was unstoppable in the Big 12. He represents an immediate weapon in the passing game.
11) Jacksonville Jaguars Record: 7-9 - Jason Pierre-Paul*, DE, South Florida
This is no place to draft a guy like Tim Tebow just to sell tickets. Pierre-Paul is local enough and could be the Mario Williams of this draft class, a raw talent but one with remarkable athleticism and an incredible burst off the line. Could be a terror for QBs in the future.
12) Miami Dolphins Record: 7-9 - Rolando McClain*, LB, Alabama
A potential home run for Miami, which needs an inside linebacker and could get the best one in the whole draft after the top 10. The Dolphins also could go after Bryant if he were to fall to them here.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=4841432
Offense(24) QB(2) Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 Tua Tagovailoa #1 RB(4) Jordan Howard #34 Matt Breida #20, Kalen Ballage #27, Malcolm Perry #10 WR(6) DeVante Parker #11 - Albert Wilson #15 - Preston Williams #18 Isaiah Ford #84, Jakeem Grant #19, Allen Hurns #17 TE(3) Mike Gesicki #88 Durham Smythe #81, Michael Roberts #89 OL(9) Austin Jackson #73 - Ereck Flowers #75 - Ted Karras #67 - Jesse Davis #77 - Robert Hunt #68 Michael Deiter #63, Solomon Kindley #66, Julién Davenport #70, Donell Stanley #72…
JajNew MemberIt does seem to be Bryant or McClain right now which is fine with me.
Bring this man back into the fold if you want some real leadership on this team.
Desidesforum_veteranAh, 'tis the draft season when Mel Kiper's name appears in a cloud of hair.
His mock drafts are entertaining, but the guy has something like a 25% success rate, so I wouldn't bother taking anything written here as gospel. After all, there's a 3/4ths chance that it's incorrect.
"Not you." — Tywin Lannister
Stitchesluxury_boxI scrolled and saw Bryant went at 10 and I was like "****, ****, mother ****ing, ****, ****!"
But then I scrolled down 2 more picks and I was alleviated somewhat. McClain is a great consolation prize.
2017 Dream Draft (3/17 – NFLDraftScout ~ Rankings used)
22. Zach Cunningham, LB, Vandy
54. Desmond King, S/DB, Iowa
97. Demarcus Walker, DE, FSU
166. Jermaine Eluemunor, OL, TAMU
178. George Kittle, TE, Iowa
184. Charles Walker, DT, Oklahoma
223. Aviante Collins, OL, TCU
azfinfanmangluxury_box"Stitches wrote:
I scrolled and saw Bryant went at 10 and I was like "****, ****, mother ****ing, ****, ****!"
But then I scrolled down 2 more picks and I was alleviated somewhat. McClain is a great consolation prize.
Exactly!!!!
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All that being said, although one of the Guru's in here swears that kiper is the best thing since pockets on shirts, I think he's a meathead and gets too much play by being a "Shock" type of guy.
rafaelforum_veteran"Stitches wrote:
I scrolled and saw Bryant went at 10 and I was like "****, ****, mother ****ing, ****, ****!"
But then I scrolled down 2 more picks and I was alleviated somewhat. McClain is a great consolation prize.
I see McClain as a decent consolation prize as well. Although I'm not sure if he or Thomas would be the smarter choice.
padre31luxury_boxRams really should take Suh as Clausen is just not #! overall Qb imho.
They have the #33, that would be a good place to pick up a Qb.
As for Ro McClain...heck yes...welcome to Miami!
And My.02 but Jason PP has a incredibly high bust potential, if the Jags take him they sort of are buyng the car without the test drive.
Which would also mean Q Groves or Richardson would not be in a good place in Jax.
texanphinaticforum_veteran"padre31 wrote:
Rams really should take Suh as Clausen is just not #! overall Qb imho.
They have the #33, that would be a good place to pick up a Qb.
No it really wouldnt be a good place. In the past 10 years you have 1 QB to come out of round 2 a success - Drew Brees, and it took him years to ascend to his current level. Chad Henne had a good season Kevin Kolb has flashed, and thats it. Its a QB wasteland once you get out of the first round.
If you need a QB, you take him in the first, end of story imo. The Rams need to bring in someone and just be done with it, or they will continue to be a mediocre franchise for years to come, with or without Suh.
BigDogsHuntNew Member"Desides wrote:
Ah, 'tis the draft season when Mel Kiper's name appears in a cloud of hair.
His mock drafts are entertaining, but the guy has something like a 25% success rate, so I wouldn't bother taking anything written here as gospel. After all, there's a 3/4ths chance that it's incorrect.
To be fair, Raiders have been picking in top portion and they screw up every MOCK, year after year, by taking the likes of Darrius Heyward-Bey.
And trade ups like what the JETS did screw the pooch too.
So, all in all these top 12 are hard to argue with.....will it happen like this...probably not, but on 1/20/10 its not like he had other directions to go.
BDH -
"To me, there are three things we all should do every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And Number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy.
"If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day. That's a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you're going to have something special."
Jimmy V. (Mar '93)
padre31luxury_box"texanphinatic wrote:
No it really wouldnt be a good place. In the past 10 years you have 1 QB to come out of round 2 a success - Drew Brees, and it took him years to ascend to his current level. Chad Henne had a good season Kevin Kolb has flashed, and thats it. Its a QB wasteland once you get out of the first round.
If you need a QB, you take him in the first, end of story imo. The Rams need to bring in someone and just be done with it, or they will continue to be a mediocre franchise for years to come, with or without Suh.
I'd say just the opposite Rd 1 is Qb Bustland, rds 2 and 3 are much more productive.
We took Chad Henne were?
Drew Brees?
mrozsubscriber"rafael wrote:
I see McClain as a decent consolation prize as well. Although I'm not sure if he or Thomas would be the smarter choice.
Thomas would be a smarter choice IMO because it would comeplete the secondary... making it a strenght of the team.
RIP CHP Officer Kirk Griess ID#15810
EOW 8/10/18
Desidesforum_veteran"BigDogsHunt wrote:
To be fair, Raiders have been picking in top portion and they screw up every MOCK, year after year, by taking the likes of Darrius Heyward-Bey.
And trade ups like what the JETS did screw the pooch too.
The actions of two teams does not knock an accuracy rate all the down to 25%.
"Not you." — Tywin Lannister
BigDogsHuntNew Member"Desides wrote:
The actions of two teams does not knock an accuracy rate all the down to 25%.
On 1/20/10 who is higher than 25%???
BDH -
"To me, there are three things we all should do every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And Number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy.
"If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day. That's a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you're going to have something special."
Jimmy V. (Mar '93)
Desidesforum_veteran"BigDogsHunt wrote:
On 1/20/10 who is higher than 25%???
The problem is that Kiper is 25% at the end of April.
"Not you." — Tywin Lannister
BigDogsHuntNew Member"Desides wrote:
The problem is that Kiper is 25% at the end of April.
ehhh......darts on a dart board really when 32 NFL WARROOMS/clubs are making random decisions and over 224 kids are getting their names called, etc.
never have tracked who the BEST of the BEST are at this prediction stuff...so couldnt tell you if 25% is meaningful.
BDH -
"To me, there are three things we all should do every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And Number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy.
"If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day. That's a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you're going to have something special."
Jimmy V. (Mar '93)
Vendigosubscriber"BigDogsHunt wrote:
never have tracked who the BEST of the BEST are at this prediction stuff
Read Gosselin the day before the draft. Means you won't have to watch the stuff yourself.
We can forgive a man for making a useful thing as long as he does not admire it. The only reason for making a useless thing is that one admires it intensely. All art is quite useless.
BigDogsHuntNew Member"Vendigo wrote:
Read Gosselin the day before the draft. Means you won't have to watch the stuff yourself.
Not fair, they have 10 people working on the mocks....:lol:
"http://www.realbollywood.com/news/up_images/11112175.gif"
BDH -
"To me, there are three things we all should do every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And Number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy.
"If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day. That's a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you're going to have something special."
Jimmy V. (Mar '93)
Vendigosubscriber"BigDogsHunt wrote:
Not fair, they have 10 people working on the mocks....
/quote Monty Python
You are a very silly person and I'm not going to talk to you anymore.
/end Monty Python
We can forgive a man for making a useful thing as long as he does not admire it. The only reason for making a useless thing is that one admires it intensely. All art is quite useless.
GunnerNew Member"BigDogsHunt wrote:
never have tracked who the BEST of the BEST are at this prediction stuff...so couldnt tell you if 25% is meaningful.
For what it is worth, this site "claims" to be the best predictors :lol: even post their numbers on the front page! lol
BigDogsHuntNew Member"Gunner wrote:
For what it is worth, this site "claims" to be the best predictors :lol: even post their numbers on the front page! lol
http://ourlads.com/
So over the last 5yrs the best is 26.4% and Kipers is 2nd @ 25.2% :lol::lol: yeah, what a bum!
BDH -
"To me, there are three things we all should do every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And Number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy.
"If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day. That's a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you're going to have something special."
Jimmy V. (Mar '93)
GunnerNew Member"BigDogsHunt wrote:
So over the last 5yrs the best is 26.4% and Kipers is 2nd @ 25.2% :lol::lol: yeah, what a bum!
Yep,
I followed that other link where that site got the info from and found this page - it list the best of the 2009 draft in the story
Desidesforum_veteran"BigDogsHunt wrote:
ehhh......darts on a dart board really when 32 NFL WARROOMS/clubs are making random decisions and over 224 kids are getting their names called, etc.
never have tracked who the BEST of the BEST are at this prediction stuff...so couldnt tell you if 25% is meaningful.
25% is abysmal, but the entire field is terrible.
Edit: Looks like the link was already posted. Okay then, you see what I mean.
Son of Edit: Nope, two different articles, same source, same topic. Both are informative and make the point very well.
"Not you." — Tywin Lannister
Frayserforum_veteranOn ESPN today, the word was that Chan Gailey would stick with Trent Edwards as he's the kind of guy that "can get the most out of him."
BigDogsHuntNew Member"Desides wrote:
25% is abysmal, but the entire field is terrible.
Edit: Looks like the link was already posted. Okay then, you see what I mean.
Son of Edit: Nope, two different articles, same source, same topic. Both are informative and make the point very well.
I dont know, if the BEST of the BEST is 26/27% on what they are grading...and the guy you badmouth is 2nd/3rd and just a tick below.....harsh to use the excuse that ALL are TERRIBLE.
Are you claiming you are better than this, over 27% (if so how much better), over the last 5 or 6 drafts from a mock to reality standpoint?
Seems a lot to do about nothing...its a mock, and Kiper is right up there on trying to be as accurate as the next guy is trying. Nothing to rip him for.
BDH -
"To me, there are three things we all should do every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And Number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy.
"If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day. That's a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you're going to have something special."
Jimmy V. (Mar '93)
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