All during the offseason and a good portion of last season I could not help but observe one thing about the Parcells track record. It seems to come almost complimentary to the massive turnover of his rosters. I have come to call it his sophmore swoon....... The swoon does not always occur during the second year. In New England (6-10) it was year three (1995). In New York (8-8) it was year three (1999). In Dallas (6-10) it was year two (2004). In any event if anything has been as consistent as his proven track record of improving the talent on a roster, it is the fact that his teams will have a down year very early in his tenure. For the majority of the time I have been pondering what seems to be an anomoly. I kept wondering what could be the root cause of this consistently poor performance. So I went off on what seems to be an investigation focusing on the three worst records (listed above) in his recent tenures. What do the years 1995, 1999, and 2004 have in common? * They are the three worst of his 19 years with regard to total net yards per pass attempt by the opposition. * 1995 and 2004 ranked in the bottom 20% of the league in total interceptions. * In 1995 and 2004 they ranked in the bottom 15% in total TDs given up through the pass. * The years were 3 of the worst 5 years in total yards given up through the pass. * The three years were 3 of the worst 4 in yardage differential per opponent. Nothing I have found statistically has been more consistent in regards to the poor performance years. The years have consistently been early in his tenure. I think we are well on our way to adding 2009 to the bottom of that list. At least one of you may remember that I attended the Carolina/Dallas playoff game in 2003. This was the same year that Jay Fiedler torched the Cowboys on Thanksgiving day while I was in attendance. I remember heading to the playoff game that year thinking "Dallas cannot cover anyone." And then Carolina proceeded to kill the Dallas defense through the passing game. The Carolina QB receives a massive contract in the offseason and the rest is history. Yet statistically Dallas ranked near the top of the league defensing the passing game that year. Go figure....... 2004 was the year of the much "ballyhooed" transition from the 43 to the 34 in Dallas. I do not think attention was paid to where the actual transition occured. It was not a massive transition within the front. It was a massive transition within the coverage. Statistically, Dallas did not rank in the top ten of the league again (as it pertains to coverage) until Parcells left. In Parcells last year they ranked 13th in total passing yards given up. So what am I saying? I think we are seeing the worst year of a transition. It's not a transition to a shutdown coverage seen during the Wannstedt/Johnson years. It's not a transition to a 34 defense. It's a transition to a bend but don't break philosophy. It's a philosophy rooted in zone coverage. It's rooted in zone coverage to get the secondary involved in defensing the run. I am not attempting to make a statement confirming or denying whether this is the right path to follow. I'm just looking at a trend. This is what I know about that trend. With the exception of 2006 none of Parcells teams (within recent memory) have ranked in the top 50% of the league in total points given up other than two of the three puking up passing yards years listed above. In 1999 his team actually ranked 9th in total points. This team seems to be following the same path to a philosophy and if history serves as any barometer, we are in for a long year giving up a massive total yardage through the passing game.
Great post. We, the Dolphins, run the "Fairbanks-Bullough" 3-4 it is the 'bend but don't break' version of the 3-4. The Patriots used to run the same system, until this year I suppose. Read this article to find out the different types of 3-4 defenses: http://www.milehighreport.com/2008/5/7/481970/mhr-university-modern-3-4
Just a question; how about strength of schedule the from the year before. We are playing one of the toughest if not the toughest we have played in a long time. Would that have anything to do with it also?
Not really D1, we only added San Diego and Pitt, the rest of the division plays the same teams as we do otherwise. The problem(s) in a nutshell is, we are finding ways to lose games and our schedule is front loaded with tough tough teams, our games before the bye week include 4 teams that are more than likely going to the playoffs and the Bills. I'd love to be 3-3 heading into the Bye Week but that would mean defeating the Jets, who are hot right now, and the Saints who are just an offensive juggernaut.
i'm sure we are not transitioning to a bend don't break defense, that is just not a Parcellian style. we just don't have the LBs to play a tough in your face defense. Roth being injured has hurt a lot, JT and JP are just not every down players any more, and our inside LBs as a whole are terrible. fix that and our defense gets a WHOLE lot better, even with our current secondary problems. i do firmly believe that we will sign Merriman next year, especially if SD lets him walk ... which still leaves ILB as a serious need ...
great post. indeed, our best days are ahead. i think i can point to the main reason why his teams do this. when you focus on building from the inside out. you're naturally going to be weak in the secondary until you finally draft the guys you need and give them time to develop. in 95 with the Pats, he drafted Ty law with his first pick. in 04 with Dallas, he drafted 3 DBs, including our own Nate Jones and here in 09, 'he' drafted 3 DBs, who could all be starting this coming week.
