Based on recent history, Dan Williams will not be much help as a NT in his rookie year, or even his second year. NT is the hardest position to play in the league, its the most physically demanding, and 99% of the college DTs being asked to play the position never played it in college, so theres a huge learning curve. Thats why there's there's not a single starting NT in this league with less than 3 years experience. Soliai just finished his 3rd year so he's getting there. Everyone one dumps on him for not playing well, but look at the other NTs in the league: Wilfork 6 years (28) 1st round Jenkins 9 yrs (30) 2nd round Ferguson 13 years (35) 7th round Ratliff 6 years (28), 7th round Franklin 7 years (29) 5th round Pickett 9 years (30) 1st round Hampton 9 years (32) 1st round Gregg 10 years (33) 6th round Peko 4 years (25) 4th round Williams 12 years (33) 2nd round Tyler 3 years (25) 3rd round Watson 4 years (26) 4th round Paul Soliai 3 years (26) 5th round Dan Williams 0 years (22) 1st round All of the good ones have several years experience, are pushing or above 30, and only three were taken in the first round. The lone age exception is Peko, probably the top young nose in the league. Back to Williams though. If you think we're going to fill the NT spot with a rookie, youre dreaming. Its much more likely we'd take Williams and spend a few years watching him struggle as a starter, or not start at all. We cant slide him over to DE, we're already stacked there, and he certainly wont be any help on special teams. Williams probably rides the pine as the 2nd highest paid player on the defense. Daydreaming about ways to spend his millions while the rest of the team sweats it out on the field. How do you think thats gonna play in the locker room? Meanwhile, we'd be passing on several players who could come in and start. E Thomas, D Bryant, E Griffen, B Graham etc. Players who wont have to change positions, who have more than just one good year on their resume. Or we can spend our 1st rounder, and the 15+ million guaranteed that comes with it, on a backup. Not saying that we dont need a NT, just thats its much smarter to grab a guy in the later rounds, when the value is better. The top round picks and the big money go to players who can contribute right away, the mid-late rounds are for projects. Unless youre Pat White.
If we could guarantee Williams would be a very solid starting NT on day one, I'd say, sure, draft him. But we can't...
No ones a guarantee, not even my boy E Thomas. But I can just about guarantee that Williams WONT be a solid starter for at least a few years.
you're right. and thats true about the position in general. But in order to get an elite NT you either have to draft one and hope he becomes elite, or pay big time for one later. If Williams is going to become an elite NT, and i know i don't know enough about talent evaluation to say he will, but if he can be then i totally believe he's worth the #12. Either way, it's not my call. I'm very hands-off with this draft. I don't really care who we take because there's a lot of good talent and quite frankly it's not going to be an easy choice no matter what. Personally, i think we're going Morgan unless he's gone. He just seems like he fits what this FO wants.
Yes, we have other holes to fill on the defense. But as you stated NT's need a couple years to develop and most elite are drafted in the 1st round. By passing on Dan Williams this year only sets us back for future years. We are not ready to contend for a title and before we are we need an elite NT. I can't say I completely agree with what I typed, but I am using the logic you presented in the OP. I still think there are better prospects then Williams on the board at #12. (Bryant, Thomas, Berry (A guy can dream), Spiller) But taking Williams over any of these prospects is reasonable, if the FO believes he can become an elite NT.
Mt Cody is the only Day 1 plug and play 3-4 NT in this draft. Everybody is going to need time to develop, just like all of the DE/OLB conversion candidates. If I had to take a NT at 12. I'd take Cody although I really prefer to trade down.
I agree we're not ready to contend, but I think our best chance to do so would involve building around Chad Henne and our OL. Maybe not Bryant specifically, but we definitely need to add a playmaker or two. Scoring more points and holding on to the ball improves the defense as well.
Dan Williams is a long way from being elite. He's a 2 down 43 defensive tackle with no pass rush and very inconsistent technique. Taking Williams at 12 is yet another sideways step for this franchise.
Say Hello to Cam Thomas in the 3rd. baby! I wish. With so many teams running the 3-4 for the most part and he having the ability to be a true NT, imo, I doubt he will last that long, but that would be sweet.
Well whatever Boomer says I'm agreeing with him in general! There are no guarantees at any position though... I'd say that if he can't at least handle 20 snaps a game with some flashes of brilliance or if thats not what they would see then don't draft him. Ireland did remind everyone though that he found Ratliff in the seventh or whatever though so maybe that was a sign of things to come.
We've got 3 six round picks and a couple 7th rounders. Take a couple NTs and let em battle it out in camp.