Josh Rosen Isn't the Future

"Fin D wrote:

I think we're looking too deep into this.

1. Rosen could be had for just a second and he appeared to have potential.
2. The Tunsil offer was too good to pass up and came up way after Rosen was a target.

1 & 2 can both be true and completely unrelated to each other. Offseasons, like literally everything else in life, are probably more fluid than we're acting they are.

I doubt Miami went into this offseason planning on trading for Rosen and then trading away Tunsil. I also doubt either decision influenced the other.

It really doesn't require all that deep a look, and this again is another post (above) that doesn't seem to consider the fact that Rosen isn't starting.

To make it simpler, consider another team in the league in which 1) it had a QB on the roster who was not starting, and 2) its young, premier left tackle, and the only high-quality offensive lineman on its roster, had just been traded.

Would you consider that non-starting QB to be viewed as a franchise QB by that team, at that particular time?

The length of the discussion here belies the simplicity of the original point. It's in fact elementary that the Dolphins don't consider Rosen a franchise QB at this time, in my opinion.

If they considered him a franchise QB at this time, 1) he'd be starting, or (notice I said "or" and not "and") 2) Tunsil wouldn't have been traded. When neither is true, he can't possibly be viewed by the team as a franchise QB at this time, in my opinion.

This'll make it even simpler: if you do believe the team views Rosen as a franchise QB right now, on what basis do you believe that? If you have trouble answering that question, consider then that the original point isn't all that complex.

"The Guy wrote:

It really doesn't require all that deep a look, and this again is another post (above) that doesn't seem to consider the fact that Rosen isn't starting.

To make it simpler, consider another team in the league in which 1) it had a QB on the roster who was not starting, and 2) its young, premier left tackle, and the only high-quality offensive lineman on its roster, had just been traded.

Would you consider that non-starting QB to be viewed as a franchise QB by that team, at that particular time?

The length of the discussion here belies the simplicity of the original point. It's in fact elementary that the Dolphins don't consider Rosen a franchise QB at this time, in my opinion.

If they considered him a franchise QB at this time, 1) he'd be starting, or (notice I said "or" and not "and") 2) Tunsil wouldn't have been traded. When neither is true, he can't possibly be viewed by the team as a franchise QB at this time, in my opinion.

This'll make it even simpler: if you do believe the team views Rosen as a franchise QB right now, on what basis do you believe that? If you have trouble answering that question, consider then that the original point isn't all that complex.

I don't think you can confidently know what the Dolphins are thinking in regards to Rosen.

Possible Hints:
- Not starting first game.
This likely means they don't believe he's ready to start yet, but that is all it tells us. They could still potentially view him as a franchise QB but feel like the best way to bring him about is slowly. Or not. But it is a hint, not an indictment.

Not Hints:
- Anything related to Tunsil.
Maybe you'd have something IF the Dolphins had been actively shopping Tunsil, but they weren't. They were approached by Houston and Houston made a helluva offer. Also, the league is different than it was when LT was a premier position. Hell, we had one of the best rushers ever in Wake, and LTs were useless against him because he rushed form the right. The point is, the Tunsil trade and the info we have available doesn't point in anyway to the FO's view of Rosen. More info can come to light and change that, but right now with what we know, I don't see it.

"Fin D wrote:

I don't think you can confidently know what the Dolphins are thinking in regards to Rosen.

Possible Hints:
- Not starting first game.
This likely means they don't believe he's ready to start yet, but that is all it tells us. They could still potentially view him as a franchise QB but feel like the best way to bring him about is slowly. Or not. But it is a hint, not an indictment.

Not Hints:
- Anything related to Tunsil.
Maybe you'd have something IF the Dolphins had been actively shopping Tunsil, but they weren't. They were approached by Houston and Houston made a helluva offer. Also, the league is different than it was when LT was a premier position. Hell, we had one of the best rushers ever in Wake, and LTs were useless against him because he rushed form the right. The point is, the Tunsil trade and the info we have available doesn't point in anyway to the FO's view of Rosen. More info can come to light and change that, but right now with what we know, I don't see it.

I agree with that. We can't confidently know.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I am really excited at the thought of Rosen throwing the ball to the combo of Parker and Williams on a regular basis, plus the TEs. I want that consistent, quick intermediate passing game all day long. After they figure out who's playing LT while getting 14 killed in the process, maybe we'll see.

I think the scheme and the pick routes this offense runs will get some separation for the tight ends we have, but Imo we don’t have a # 1 tight end... not close..

Whoever plays at QB this year is literally going to die from repeated trauma to the brain.

We will never know if Risen is the guy now. He literally has 0 chance to succeed if he sees the field.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

We will never know if Risen is the guy now. He literally has 0 chance to succeed if he sees the field.

You’re essentially alluding to the Tunsil trade there, and why the accurate interpretation of what’s going on may be that they already know he’s not the guy.

If they thought he had a strong probability to be the guy, certainly they would try to create the most favorable surroundings possible.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Whoever plays at QB this year is literally going to die from repeated trauma to the brain.

We will never know if Risen is the guy now. He literally has 0 chance to succeed if he sees the field.

That's how I see it too- it really doesn't matter who starts week one because they'll be on injured reserve by the bye. No quarterback is going to look good behind this line and it could honestly end Rosen's career...I'm not sure you get a chance at a 3rd team when the 1st two sabotage you so hard. So yeah, the longer he's on the bench, the better chance he has of becoming "the man".

I'm hoping we grab several linemen off waivers today- that's about the only thing that can somewhat save the season and let us win a few.

Prior to the Tunsil trade, I was 100% on the start Rosen no matter what train.

However, I remember way back to the acquisition of Rosen, and I remember hearing that the Dolphins brass said that they could evaluate Rosen even if he never starts. When Flores announced that Fitzmagic was the starter, I think Tunsil was already off the team in his mind.

I really think that they might actually simply keep his evaluation to practice and give him a redshirt year. I 100% think that they will still look at QBs, but I think that these QBS will have to impress enough that they are better than what will become a known commodity with Rosen.

"tirty8 wrote:

Prior to the Tunsil trade, I was 100% on the start Rosen no matter what train.

However, I remember way back to the acquisition of Rosen, and I remember hearing that the Dolphins brass said that they could evaluate Rosen even if he never starts. When Flores announced that Fitzmagic was the starter, I think Tunsil was already off the team in his mind.

I really think that they might actually simply keep his evaluation to practice and give him a redshirt year. I 100% think that they will still look at QBs, but I think that these QBS will have to impress enough that they are better than what will become a known commodity with Rosen.

I certainly hope they will be trying to get one of the top QBs at the top of the draft in 2020 if what they are seeing from Rosen isn’t inspiring any more an aggressive approach to winning now than this.

Louis Riddick is one of a VERY FEW honest & intelligent talking heads at ESPN - a couple of recent tweets...

"freeperjim wrote:

Louis Riddick is one of a VERY FEW honest & intelligent talking heads at ESPN - a couple of recent tweets...

Josh Rosen could not have asked for a more 💩 start to his career from an organizational support standpoint. I don’t care if you like the kid or not “personally”. He has been set up to fail. Nice job. 🙄

— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) September 1, 2019

Let’s put it this way...all of those that were screaming that QB Jarrett Stidham sucked while he was at Auburn...do you think if he had been drafted by Miami that he would be doing what he just did for the #Patriots this preseason? Hell no. And we KNOW WHY!

— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) September 1, 2019

Why should someone who’s proven absolutely nothing in the league determine the personnel approach of an entire organization?

This team just spent seven years trying to surround an inadequate quarterback with enough pieces to make him successful. I’m about done with that approach.

"Fin D wrote:

I think we're looking too deep into this.

1. Rosen could be had for just a second and he appeared to have potential.
2. The Tunsil offer was too good to pass up and came up way after Rosen was a target.

1 & 2 can both be true and completely unrelated to each other. Offseasons, like literally everything else in life, are probably more fluid than we're acting they are.

I doubt Miami went into this offseason planning on trading for Rosen and then trading away Tunsil. I also doubt either decision influenced the other.

The Tunsil offer wasnt good. We got fleeced horribly.

I don't think you can say he is or isn't the future at this point really. I'd rather see him playing all 16 games this year to see what he is. If he's not ready though, or doesn't quite have command of the new offense yet, I'd rather not put him out there behind what is likely to be an awful OL, and shaky offensive unit as a whole. That's the last thing you need for the team, or him. So go with the vet who can make the quick decisions to get rid of the ball behind a shaky OL until Rosen is more equipped.

You have him under contract for what, 2 years? or is it 3 more? Either way, he's very much a part of the future of this team. Whether that's as a starter, a backup, or trade bait remains to be seen. There's no such thing has having too many QB's on your roster. Even if we drafted one next year pending the outcome of Rosen's season Id still keep him. You just never know when someone else is going down, and you can get more value for him than he's worth.

I thought he looked pretty good in the preseason, albeit against 2nd stringers, but I thought he still did things well regardless of the level of competition he was against. Arm looked good, decisions looked good, awareness looked good. Comfort with the system will come. So is he the future in that regard, who knows... maybe. I just don't think the recent decisions from the FO and staff have anything to do with Rosen's abilities or future role. It's more about continuing the rebuild, pressing the button for a complete fresh restart, clearing out players who have big contracts, or are due for them if you dont see them as longterm fits. I've seen people in the media say they're confused, why trade for Rosen if you're going to trade away the LT, and top WR? You trade for him because the value was there at the time, you can never have too many QB's on your roster, and who knows what happens when you get him in the system.

The writing was on the wall long before the Rosen trade, or the starting QB decision, or the Tunsil & Stills trade; this year was going to be a complete rebuild. So the starting QB decision at this point I don't think is an indication of anything. If you think the team was going to change it's direction if Rosen won the starting job clear out of camp, I've got some ice to sell you for your igloo. He could have looked like a pro-bowler all camp and preseason and this team was still going to do exactly what it did. They've been on this path since firing Adam Gase and clearing out the FO. Nothing was likely to stop these moves, and it's not an indication of any one player's future prospect IMO.

From Barry Jackson at the Miami Herald. Note the comment about Josh Rosen in relation to the main point of this thread:

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article234548232.html

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

The Tunsil offer wasnt good. We got fleeced horribly.

???We got QB value for a T!!!???

I could understand not wanting to trade a player at any cost, but there's no way we got "fleeced".

"rafael wrote:

???We got QB value for a T!!!???

I could understand not wanting to trade a player at any cost, but there's no way we got "fleeced".

I look at it like this. After the picks are made will I be ahead or behind in talent?

Chances are at least one of the firsts, if nothing else gets traded, will be a bust. It's just the NFL.

Chances are the next pick, even if successful, will be a talent downgrade overall from Tunsil.

Both are going to be late firsts and the 2nd is basically a third.

We didnt really get any value for what we gave up. If I'm to assume every pick will be a home run you're right, but they wont be.

In 3 years we may have 1 average player in return.

I'd put Josh Rosen as the chalk favorite to be the starting QB of this team in 2020.

And almost 0% chance he's the starter in 2021.

"ckparrothead wrote:

I'd put Josh Rosen as the chalk favorite to be the starting QB of this team in 2020.

And almost 0% chance he's the starter in 2021.

Been saying this all offseason. It will behoove this staff to develop him, but not to start him long-term... to flip him for picks and make room for the rookie that has a fresh 5-year contract.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

I look at it like this. After the picks are made will I be ahead or behind in talent?

Chances are at least one of the firsts, if nothing else gets traded, will be a bust. It's just the NFL.

Chances are the next pick, even if successful, will be a talent downgrade overall from Tunsil.

Both are going to be late firsts and the 2nd is basically a third.

We didnt really get any value for what we gave up. If I'm to assume every pick will be a home run you're right, but they wont be.

In 3 years we may have 1 average player in return.

If one or any combination of those picks becomes a quarterback who is top-five in the league, the team will be far and away ahead of where it was with Tunsil and Stills.

"ckparrothead wrote:

I'd put Josh Rosen as the chalk favorite to be the starting QB of this team in 2020.

And almost 0% chance he's the starter in 2021.

But imagine if he is the starter in 2021 and what that would imply...

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I guess we'll disagree on that one too, lol. For me, Rosen is a top 5 QB prospect in the last 20 years. Maybe third after Luck and Palmer. And I liked RT a lot too. After Luck, he was probably me second favorite one in the window from 2009-2014.

I hope you're right, but a top 5 prospect in the last 20 years? I'm not seeing it but I guess time will tell.

"The Guy wrote:

If one or any combination of those picks becomes a quarterback who is top-five in the league, the team will be far and away ahead of where it was with Tunsil and Stills.

That's a major if. When a QB prospect is that good, you arent trading up for him because 95% of the time a team isnt passing on that for any offer.

"Big Phin wrote:

I hope you're right, but a top 5 prospect in the last 20 years? I'm not seeing it but I guess time will tell.

Personal preference as just a fan. He's specifically the type of QB that I want, to run the type of offense that I want. I also like everything about him off the field that I've heard and learned.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

I look at it like this. After the picks are made will I be ahead or behind in talent?

Chances are at least one of the firsts, if nothing else gets traded, will be a bust. It's just the NFL.

Chances are the next pick, even if successful, will be a talent downgrade overall from Tunsil.

Both are going to be late firsts and the 2nd is basically a third.

We didnt really get any value for what we gave up. If I'm to assume every pick will be a home run you're right, but they wont be.

In 3 years we may have 1 average player in return.

I don't agree with your odds and I'm not sure that they will be late picks. I think there's a a decent chance that Houston implodes and if you're talking top 10 picks then those general odds of 50% of first round picks bust improve. And OL picks have a lower bust percentage in general so if they are used in those areas then you can't go with the standard 50% metric either. My guess is that if none of those picks are traded then we probably end up with a a couple of stater level players from the three picks. Even if those two starters aren't as good as Tunsil, most football people recognize that having two decent Ts will help your OL as much or more than having one great LT and a below average RT. We also gained some salary cap flexibility to get a couple of OL in FA next year. So we may end up getting four OL starters (couple of picks and a couple of FAs) out of that trade not to mention that we also got a developmental T included in the deal.

But that ignores the fact that the picks can be traded. That flexibility has value too. Getting the right QB is the #1 goal. If we need to use some of those picks to get the QB then it's unquestionably a win. If we trade down for multiple picks then that changes the odds as well.

IMO we got incredible value in the deal.

"rafael wrote:

I don't agree with your odds and I'm not sure that they will be late picks. I think there's a a decent chance that Houston implodes and if you're talking top 10 picks then those general odds of 50% of first round picks bust improve. And OL picks have a lower bust percentage in general so if they are used in those areas then you can't go with the standard 50% metric either. My guess is that if none of those picks are traded then we probably end up with a a couple of stater level players from the three picks. Even if those two starters aren't as good as Tunsil, most football people recognize that having two decent Ts will help your OL as much or more than having one great LT and a below average RT. We also gained some salary cap flexibility to get a couple of OL in FA next year. So we may end up getting four OL starters (couple of picks and a couple of FAs) out of that trade not to mention that we also got a developmental T included in the deal.

But that ignores the fact that the picks can be traded. That flexibility has value too. Getting the right QB is the #1 goal. If we need to use some of those picks to get the QB then it's unquestionably a win. If we trade down for multiple picks then that changes the odds as well.

IMO we got incredible value in the deal.

You arent trading up for a legitimate QB. It's a fairly uncommon event for anyone to trade up to the #1 or #2 pick for a legitimate player. At best you will get an RGIII type of failure out of it. Teams dont bypass generational talent, it isn't just about the ammo.

I doubt Houston implodes but even finishing middle of the pack, no, two first rounders are never worth one proven player, especially a young one.

The offensive line is also obviously not as easy to fix as youd like people to believe considering ours has been broken for the better part a decade or more.

I'll be honest and say it's the most brain dead trade I've seen in my life. Its really pathetic and there is no defending its sheer stupidity IMO

People over value picks without using their brains.