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Josh Rosen Isn't the Future

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Aug 31, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In my opinion any team that believes it has a franchise quarterback should be trying to win now, especially if its quarterback is counting very little against the cap, as Rosen is.

    And that opinion is merely a function of the importance of the quarterback position in today’s game.

    If the Dolphins believe Rosen is a franchise quarterback at present and they aren’t trying to win now, then that’s even more troubling than whatever else they may mistakenly be doing.
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If the top goal was to win now, then Adam Gase would still be the head coach. Ross made it clear that winning in 2019 wasn't a priority.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah but the validity of the reasoning in your original post doesn't depend on what YOU think a team should do, it depends on what coaches and/or GM's do when they think they have their franchise QB.

    So let me ask the question.. is Brady a franchise QB? Because Belichick has never acted like he's in "win-now" mode with Brady.

    On the contrary, Belichick is precisely the type of GM/coach that would love this trade because he wants to build a consistent winner. And building a consistent winner means you don't sell out for short term gain ignoring long term gains. There has to be a balance.

    Also, there are some factors here that you're not considering (at least not explicitly). Flores does NOT have to "win now" to keep his job. He most likely needs to prove within 3-4 years based on Ross's previous record that he can "build a consistent winner" (something Ross wants btw). So why sell out this year? You do realize these are high draft picks in the next 2 years, not 4-5 years down the road.

    Another thing you're not considering (quite obvious one actually) is that nowadays franchise QB's last a long time, like a decade or more. You sell out too early and miss (winning the SB is not easy) you probably have a smaller chance of winning X number of SB's over the next decade than if you try to build a consistent winner, and of course Belichick is the best example.

    So, no I don't think your assumptions are correct. And as I said before, there are really no realistic options for us to "win now" as a bottom feeder anyway. I mean.. we have so many holes you really do have to think about being a serious contender in 3+ years or so.
     
  4. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, but how big are you prepared a price on Rosen are you willing to forgo? If you can get a 2021 1st round pick for Rosen, take that **** and run.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Depends on how good Rosen is. I mean, would you have traded Earl Morrall for a 1st before the '72 season? Kiss goodbye to maybe the greatest season in NFL history if you do. Shula understood how important a good backup QB is and it would have to be a real steep price before I'd agree to trade a good backup QB.

    But more specifically to the hypothetical scenario you described in your previous post. If Rosen plays well enough early in 2020 that he's above average but not great AND the 2020 draft pick can't outperform him to replace him from mid-season, then no I don't trade Rosen for a 1st because you don't know what you have left at QB. The 2020 QB could end up being a bust.

    But if that 2020 draft pick at QB replaces Rosen (who by assumption played well) mid-season and performs better, then yeah a 1st is good enough because you should be able to get a decent backup QB with a 2nd rounder or in FA.

    Anyway, my bias is to not trade but yes there's a price for everything.
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It seems like you’re neglecting to consider that Rosen isn’t starting in taking this approach?

    For me it’s the combination of his not starting, and the trade, given that he started 13 games last year. Either one in isolation wouldn’t have as much significance, but both together mean a whole lot in my opinion.

    Do you really think that given that, the Dolphins are viewing him as a franchise quarterback at the present time?

    Again my contention is not that they can’t possibly view him as one at some point in the future, just that they aren’t right now.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No I already said I don't think he's franchise QB material. And clearly Flores doesn't think he's ready right now.

    But for the reasons I listed in post #16 as well as the post you just quoted, I don't think the trade we just saw had anything to do with Rosen's play in preseason. He could have won the starting job and I still think Flores is on a 3-4 year clock, not a "win now" clock. I think Flores wants to build a consistent winner and this trade could help accomplish that IF (really big IF) the team drafts well.
     
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  8. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    You have to wonder though, if Flores and Grier did think of Rosen as a franchise player, maybe they shut the door harder on the Texans, or even make enough public noise that the Texans dont bother.

    I dont know if the events are directly linked, but indirectly at least they likely play into each other.
     
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  9. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I think we're looking too deep into this.

    1. Rosen could be had for just a second and he appeared to have potential.
    2. The Tunsil offer was too good to pass up and came up way after Rosen was a target.

    1 & 2 can both be true and completely unrelated to each other. Offseasons, like literally everything else in life, are probably more fluid than we're acting they are.

    I doubt Miami went into this offseason planning on trading for Rosen and then trading away Tunsil. I also doubt either decision influenced the other.
     
  10. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    He's kind of old, being 54. Would Will Smith come with him?
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It really doesn't require all that deep a look, and this again is another post (above) that doesn't seem to consider the fact that Rosen isn't starting.

    To make it simpler, consider another team in the league in which 1) it had a QB on the roster who was not starting, and 2) its young, premier left tackle, and the only high-quality offensive lineman on its roster, had just been traded.

    Would you consider that non-starting QB to be viewed as a franchise QB by that team, at that particular time?

    The length of the discussion here belies the simplicity of the original point. It's in fact elementary that the Dolphins don't consider Rosen a franchise QB at this time, in my opinion.

    If they considered him a franchise QB at this time, 1) he'd be starting, or (notice I said "or" and not "and") 2) Tunsil wouldn't have been traded. When neither is true, he can't possibly be viewed by the team as a franchise QB at this time, in my opinion.

    This'll make it even simpler: if you do believe the team views Rosen as a franchise QB right now, on what basis do you believe that? If you have trouble answering that question, consider then that the original point isn't all that complex.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2019
  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I don't think you can confidently know what the Dolphins are thinking in regards to Rosen.

    Possible Hints:
    - Not starting first game.
    This likely means they don't believe he's ready to start yet, but that is all it tells us. They could still potentially view him as a franchise QB but feel like the best way to bring him about is slowly. Or not. But it is a hint, not an indictment.

    Not Hints:
    - Anything related to Tunsil.
    Maybe you'd have something IF the Dolphins had been actively shopping Tunsil, but they weren't. They were approached by Houston and Houston made a helluva offer. Also, the league is different than it was when LT was a premier position. Hell, we had one of the best rushers ever in Wake, and LTs were useless against him because he rushed form the right. The point is, the Tunsil trade and the info we have available doesn't point in anyway to the FO's view of Rosen. More info can come to light and change that, but right now with what we know, I don't see it.
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with that. We can't confidently know.
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the scheme and the pick routes this offense runs will get some separation for the tight ends we have, but Imo we don’t have a # 1 tight end... not close..
     
  15. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Whoever plays at QB this year is literally going to die from repeated trauma to the brain.

    We will never know if Risen is the guy now. He literally has 0 chance to succeed if he sees the field.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2019
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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You’re essentially alluding to the Tunsil trade there, and why the accurate interpretation of what’s going on may be that they already know he’s not the guy.

    If they thought he had a strong probability to be the guy, certainly they would try to create the most favorable surroundings possible.
     
  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's how I see it too- it really doesn't matter who starts week one because they'll be on injured reserve by the bye. No quarterback is going to look good behind this line and it could honestly end Rosen's career...I'm not sure you get a chance at a 3rd team when the 1st two sabotage you so hard. So yeah, the longer he's on the bench, the better chance he has of becoming "the man".

    I'm hoping we grab several linemen off waivers today- that's about the only thing that can somewhat save the season and let us win a few.
     
  18. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Prior to the Tunsil trade, I was 100% on the start Rosen no matter what train.

    However, I remember way back to the acquisition of Rosen, and I remember hearing that the Dolphins brass said that they could evaluate Rosen even if he never starts. When Flores announced that Fitzmagic was the starter, I think Tunsil was already off the team in his mind.

    I really think that they might actually simply keep his evaluation to practice and give him a redshirt year. I 100% think that they will still look at QBs, but I think that these QBS will have to impress enough that they are better than what will become a known commodity with Rosen.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I certainly hope they will be trying to get one of the top QBs at the top of the draft in 2020 if what they are seeing from Rosen isn’t inspiring any more an aggressive approach to winning now than this.
     
  20. freeperjim

    freeperjim Member

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    Louis Riddick is one of a VERY FEW honest & intelligent talking heads at ESPN - a couple of recent tweets...



     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why should someone who’s proven absolutely nothing in the league determine the personnel approach of an entire organization?

    This team just spent seven years trying to surround an inadequate quarterback with enough pieces to make him successful. I’m about done with that approach.
     
  22. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The Tunsil offer wasnt good. We got fleeced horribly.
     
  23. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think you can say he is or isn't the future at this point really. I'd rather see him playing all 16 games this year to see what he is. If he's not ready though, or doesn't quite have command of the new offense yet, I'd rather not put him out there behind what is likely to be an awful OL, and shaky offensive unit as a whole. That's the last thing you need for the team, or him. So go with the vet who can make the quick decisions to get rid of the ball behind a shaky OL until Rosen is more equipped.

    You have him under contract for what, 2 years? or is it 3 more? Either way, he's very much a part of the future of this team. Whether that's as a starter, a backup, or trade bait remains to be seen. There's no such thing has having too many QB's on your roster. Even if we drafted one next year pending the outcome of Rosen's season Id still keep him. You just never know when someone else is going down, and you can get more value for him than he's worth.

    I thought he looked pretty good in the preseason, albeit against 2nd stringers, but I thought he still did things well regardless of the level of competition he was against. Arm looked good, decisions looked good, awareness looked good. Comfort with the system will come. So is he the future in that regard, who knows... maybe. I just don't think the recent decisions from the FO and staff have anything to do with Rosen's abilities or future role. It's more about continuing the rebuild, pressing the button for a complete fresh restart, clearing out players who have big contracts, or are due for them if you dont see them as longterm fits. I've seen people in the media say they're confused, why trade for Rosen if you're going to trade away the LT, and top WR? You trade for him because the value was there at the time, you can never have too many QB's on your roster, and who knows what happens when you get him in the system.

    The writing was on the wall long before the Rosen trade, or the starting QB decision, or the Tunsil & Stills trade; this year was going to be a complete rebuild. So the starting QB decision at this point I don't think is an indication of anything. If you think the team was going to change it's direction if Rosen won the starting job clear out of camp, I've got some ice to sell you for your igloo. He could have looked like a pro-bowler all camp and preseason and this team was still going to do exactly what it did. They've been on this path since firing Adam Gase and clearing out the FO. Nothing was likely to stop these moves, and it's not an indication of any one player's future prospect IMO.
     
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  24. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  25. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ???We got QB value for a T!!!???

    I could understand not wanting to trade a player at any cost, but there's no way we got "fleeced".
     
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  26. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I look at it like this. After the picks are made will I be ahead or behind in talent?

    Chances are at least one of the firsts, if nothing else gets traded, will be a bust. It's just the NFL.

    Chances are the next pick, even if successful, will be a talent downgrade overall from Tunsil.

    Both are going to be late firsts and the 2nd is basically a third.

    We didnt really get any value for what we gave up. If I'm to assume every pick will be a home run you're right, but they wont be.

    In 3 years we may have 1 average player in return.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'd put Josh Rosen as the chalk favorite to be the starting QB of this team in 2020.

    And almost 0% chance he's the starter in 2021.
     
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  28. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Been saying this all offseason. It will behoove this staff to develop him, but not to start him long-term... to flip him for picks and make room for the rookie that has a fresh 5-year contract.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If one or any combination of those picks becomes a quarterback who is top-five in the league, the team will be far and away ahead of where it was with Tunsil and Stills.
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But imagine if he is the starter in 2021 and what that would imply...
     
  31. Big Phin

    Big Phin Member

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    I hope you're right, but a top 5 prospect in the last 20 years? I'm not seeing it but I guess time will tell.
     
  32. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    That's a major if. When a QB prospect is that good, you arent trading up for him because 95% of the time a team isnt passing on that for any offer.
     
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  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Personal preference as just a fan. He's specifically the type of QB that I want, to run the type of offense that I want. I also like everything about him off the field that I've heard and learned.
     
  34. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't agree with your odds and I'm not sure that they will be late picks. I think there's a a decent chance that Houston implodes and if you're talking top 10 picks then those general odds of 50% of first round picks bust improve. And OL picks have a lower bust percentage in general so if they are used in those areas then you can't go with the standard 50% metric either. My guess is that if none of those picks are traded then we probably end up with a a couple of stater level players from the three picks. Even if those two starters aren't as good as Tunsil, most football people recognize that having two decent Ts will help your OL as much or more than having one great LT and a below average RT. We also gained some salary cap flexibility to get a couple of OL in FA next year. So we may end up getting four OL starters (couple of picks and a couple of FAs) out of that trade not to mention that we also got a developmental T included in the deal.

    But that ignores the fact that the picks can be traded. That flexibility has value too. Getting the right QB is the #1 goal. If we need to use some of those picks to get the QB then it's unquestionably a win. If we trade down for multiple picks then that changes the odds as well.

    IMO we got incredible value in the deal.
     
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  35. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You arent trading up for a legitimate QB. It's a fairly uncommon event for anyone to trade up to the #1 or #2 pick for a legitimate player. At best you will get an RGIII type of failure out of it. Teams dont bypass generational talent, it isn't just about the ammo.

    I doubt Houston implodes but even finishing middle of the pack, no, two first rounders are never worth one proven player, especially a young one.

    The offensive line is also obviously not as easy to fix as youd like people to believe considering ours has been broken for the better part a decade or more.

    I'll be honest and say it's the most brain dead trade I've seen in my life. Its really pathetic and there is no defending its sheer stupidity IMO

    People over value picks without using their brains.
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    One of the ways you fix an offensive line is by having a good enough pass defense to keep you in games so that your offensive line isn’t trying to protect a quarterback from an opposing defense that knows he has to pass the ball and can pin its ears back and come after him.
     
  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Another way to achieve a great oline is to have more draft and cap capitol then any other team in football for the next two years..

    :)
     
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  38. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In this draft I'm not talking about generalities. There are two teams that are likely candidates to have the first overall pick and to draft a QB (Cincy and Miami). The other teams likely to have a bad record just drafted QBs this past draft and without going into each situation, are all unlikely to draft a QB. I also happen to have two QBs rated as being likely worth the #1 pick by the time the draft rolls around. IMO this draft will be more like the Eli, Rivers, Big Ben draft in terms of strength. So in terms of this draft, the odds of Miami either organically or by trade up landing one of those two QBs I like, is very, very high.

    "Proven" is a relative phrase. Tunsil was considered a great young LT, but he was by no measure already considered one of the best Ts in the league. IMO he was a solid pass protector but a below average run blocker. He was also very penalty prone. His holds on average killed one drive per game. PFF had him way down the rankings for last season (far lower than even my estimation). He has yet to make the probowl. To eventually become one of the best Ts in the game he'll have to improve considerably.

    And nobody has claimed that the offensive line is easy to fix. But having the resources to throw draft picks and FAs at it increases your odds. Heck one of those FAs may even end up being Tunsil as Houston has yet to sign him to a long-term deal.

    You are far in the minority in considering this a poor trade for Miami. For the most part people have focused on whether or not Miami is tanking. But the analysts who have actually looked at the trade itself all pretty much say it was just too much to pass up or focus on how Houston over paid due to desperation.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Just for info: Vegas (or at least sportsbook which I use to bet) thinks Miami is the most likely to get that #1 draft pick with an expected 4.5 wins, but 2nd most likely is Arizona with 5.5 wins, and 3rd and 4th most likely are the Giants and Raiders who are tied at 6. It's after that with 6.5 wins that you get a tie among Cincy, Washington, Tampa, Buffalo and Detroit:
    https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/season-wins.sbk

    How accurate is Vegas? The standard deviation of the absolute difference between expected total wins and actual wins is 2. In other words, there's about a 67% chance that a 4.5 ends up being between 2.5 and 6.5. So Vegas thinks we have some real competition for the #1 pick.
     
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  40. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Of those teams you listed, I'd be most worried about the Bengals and Lions, with the Raiders being a distant 3rd.
     

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