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Josh Rosen is the future a counter offer thread

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dorfdad, Sep 2, 2019.

  1. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Or they simply had too good of an offer to refuse. Couple that with the premise that Rosen isn’t ready now, you let him develop, Fitz takes a beating as the starter and next year you come back with more talent for Rosen IF he’s ready or whoever we draft at QB.
     
    resnor likes this.
  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    WADR, there's 3 things wrong with that take:

    1. It doesn't make a lot of sense to assume they'd do what you'd do.
    2. This appears to be too binary. I don't think FOs view players as either 100% or 0%. They may feel, for example, that Rosen is a 65% at making it. Or they could feel him being in this tough position, with coaching they agree with, will tell them what they need to know. After all, it rarely makes the best sense to gauge another's ability in ideal situations.
    3. The Dolphins didn't shop Tunsil. If they did, that would lend credence to your take.

    The point I'm making is that there a few different reasons that aren't crazy, out there, insane or bizarre as to why the Tunsil deal doesn't necessarily point to their view of Rosen.
     
    resnor likes this.
  3. Makados10

    Makados10 Active Member

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    We saw Rosen start for 13 games last year for the Cards, and they saw enough to take a loss & move on. Rosen was drafted as the 4th QB in round 1 last year, and led his team to the worst record in the league. His team drafted the smallest QB in the league #1 overall and didnt even want to keep him as a cheap backup in case of injury. They dumped Rosen to us for a late 2nd round pick to the team actively trying to tank so they can select a QB next draft too.

    I don't understand what people think is going on with Rosen... lol
     
    The Guy likes this.
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When you consider the base rate of quarterbacks’ becoming exceptionally good in the league, and then combine it with what was said in the post quoted above, the expectation for Rosen’s becoming exceptionally good should be almost nil.

    And that’s even without considering the fact that he isn’t starting presently, and without considering the Tunsil trade. When you include those other two factors, the expectation should be even closer to nil.

    Having a thread with the title this one has appears ridiculous under those circumstances in my opinion. Imagine how loudly it would be laughed at if it were posted on another team’s message board.
     
  5. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I love when people use the simplistic view of the QB “led” them to the worst record. Do you think the worst OL in the NFL, a HC that got fired and the 7th worst scoring defense had anything to do with it? Football is a “team” sport. He was a rookie QB. Clearly his value dropped after a season that showed a lot of issues which is why he went from being worth a 1st round pick to a late 2nd round pick.

    But trying to somehow blame him for those results.... Come on man!
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Rosen didn't "lead" the team to a 3-10 record when he was a starter, that is true. However, Rosen did not play above or below the level of a 3-10 team based on his passer rating. That is, a QB could play a lot better than the defense or running game for example. But not Rosen.

    [​IMG]

    Rosen's 2018 passer rating was 66.7. Plug that into "PR" in the equation above and you get an expected win% = 22.62%. His actual win% was 3/13 = 23.08%. So yes the rest of his team was really bad, but so was Rosen. And that's so far the only data points we have from him as a starting QB in the NFL.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Cardinals’ personnel people, who were in the best position to appreciate the effect of all of those surrounding factors on Rosen, traded him away for a second-round pick after only one season, and drafted a different quarterback instead of drafting a player who could’ve helped him (a left tackle for example).

    I’m not sure why we should think any of us is in a better position to evaluate the effect of those surrounding factors on Rosen than the team who was privy to all of that in the closest way possible and made quite an indicting judgment of him.
     
  8. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Look, I’m not saying he’s the best thing since sliced bread because clearly he’s not. He wasn’t ready to be a NFL starter as a rookie but you know what, not every QB is. I wouldn’t call it an indictment. They were bringing in a head coach who wanted a different QB, one they thought would give them a better chance to win.

    QB’s who are good to elite don’t get traded for such low draft capital. But let’s not act like the Cardinals failed just because of him or that somehow he doesn’t have some potential that can develop. How many late 2nd round QB’s turn out to be good? Clearly our staff that it was worth the gamble.
     
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