Josh Rosen cut

"cbrad wrote:

It's only a steal if he pans out. If he flops that's a wasted draft pick (fairly high one too).

To be clear, I think it was a good move to trade for him — you need to keep trying until you find a franchise QB — but you also need to know when to cut your losses. "Hope for the best" is not a good strategy.

I honestly don't understand why we wouldn't keep him on the cheap as a backup?

"resnor wrote:

I honestly don't understand why we wouldn't keep him on the cheap as a backup?

It's a test of your evaluation ability. If your eval says he's almost certainly not going to pan out, then go get another prospect that's also cheap and see if he can develop.

"cbrad wrote:

It's only a steal if he pans out. If he flops that's a wasted draft pick (fairly high one too).

To be clear, I think it was a good move to trade for him — you need to keep trying until you find a franchise QB — but you also need to know when to cut your losses. "Hope for the best" is not a good strategy.

I agree, but "cut him after a few games with the worst offense in the history of the league" isn't a strategy either. The only way we know if he's a deal or not is to let the kid play out his ultra-cheap contract and see what happens.

We have this year and two more full seasons that will cost us $6M total...you can't find a decent backup QB for that so there's already some value there by doing nothing. It's obvious that Fitz pretty much has one foot out the door already, so Rosen will be much more valuable to us next season anyway. There's just zero reason to trade him UNLESS someone's going to pay a 2nd rounder or an immediate starter.

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree, but "cut him after a few games with the worst offense in the history of the league" isn't a strategy either.

It's really not helpful to vastly exaggerate how "bad" things were for us, not just last year but in previous years.

You say "worst offense in the history of the league". Yet there were 7 offenses that were worse than us JUST in 2019 (by points scored)!! Like I said earlier, historically bad is what you saw from Cleveland from 2016-2017, and the Dolphins have NEVER been that bad.

Finally, it's not just a few games here. It's a full season's worth of games. That's still small sample size, but when your QB has not even ONCE shown he can perform at average level (by passer rating), it's really stretching credibility to suggest there's evidence we should keep Rosen as a future prospect instead of another cheap option.

The 2018 Cardinals were the 32nd ranked offense in the league. Lol. Don't know how they were historically, but that was a terrible offense that year.

"resnor wrote:

The 2018 Cardinals were the 32nd ranked offense in the league. Lol. Don't know how they were historically, but that was a terrible offense that year.

Yeah, and Rosen was a major contributor to that. The z-score for points scored by the 2018 Cardinals offense is -1.9497 while Rosen's z-score rating was -2.1854. In other words, it's not like Rosen was performing above the rest of the offense (and there are many cases where you see a discrepancy: QB did well but offense overall did not, or vice versa).

"cbrad wrote:

It's really not helpful to vastly exaggerate how "bad" things were for us, not just last year but in previous years.

You say "worst offense in the history of the league". Yet there were 7 offenses that were worse than us JUST in 2019 (by points scored)!! Like I said earlier, historically bad is what you saw from Cleveland from 2016-2017, and the Dolphins have NEVER been that bad.

Finally, it's not just a few games here. It's a full season's worth of games. That's still small sample size, but when your QB has not even ONCE shown he can perform at average level (by passer rating), it's really stretching credibility to suggest there's evidence we should keep Rosen as a future prospect instead of another cheap option.

The Dolphins team that ended 2019 wasn't the same one they started with- and I mean that literally because we traded to fill holes throughout the season. Maybe you forget how bad Fitzpatrick looked early on and how many hits he endured under center before things started to click around week 10.

The week 1-4 Dolphins were HISTORICALLY BAD with the worst point differential in history when Rosen took over. You can twist that as much as you want by factoring out the entire season, but the fact of the matter is that Rosen had almost zero chance to be successful in those three games.

And yes, I realize he started 13 horrible games in Arizona. Things weren't much better there- dead last in offensive production and leading the league in sacks, time to pressure, etc. He made several jaw-dropping plays in Arizona and he had a few more in limited action in Miami. For instance, you can't fault him for Preston Williams and Grant dropping deep TD passes that were on the money as Rosen ran for his life...those were big-time, carer defining types of throws that Fitzpatrick couldn't make. Rosen has a better arm than Fitz and Tua, has more power and velocity, so it's crazy to just write him off when he's (A) basically a free highly rated quarterback prospect and (B) not given a fair chance to succeed in any of those 16 starts.

Again, I'm not saying Rosen will develop or even that he'll be an average NFL starter...but he still very easily could be. When you weigh the risks/rewards on him it would be insane to trade him today when he's already paid for by another team. Because despite what everyone else has said here, there's still a chance that he ends up being great.

"KeyFin wrote:

The week 1-4 Dolphins were HISTORICALLY BAD with the worst point differential in history when Rosen took over.

First 2 weeks yes. The games Rosen started we were bad but nowhere near historically bad.

"KeyFin wrote:

He made several jaw-dropping plays in Arizona and he had a few more in limited action in Miami.

Yeah, most of them were plays demonstrating bad decision making, or just slow processing speed in general, you know.. like throwing to a place the receiver was a while earlier.

"KeyFin wrote:

Again, I'm not saying Rosen will develop or even that he'll be an average NFL starter...but he still very easily could be. When you weigh the risks/rewards on him it would be insane to trade him today when he's already paid for by another team. Because despite what everyone else has said here, there's still a chance that he ends up being great.

That's the point. Rosen (based on his previous play) does not look like he could "easily" be average. He hasn't even done that ONCE. So the risk/reward calculation is mostly one of opportunity cost. Why not go after another low cost option? You haven't given any good argument against that approach. For example, I was banging the drum suggesting we draft another QB to replace Rosen with a late round pick or possibly an undrafted one.

This is a QB eval question dude. Rosen doesn't have it. Best to try out another low risk low probability prospect.

"cbrad wrote:

That's the point. Rosen (based on his previous play) does not look like he could "easily" be average. He hasn't even done that ONCE.

And even if he could be just average, you don't build around QBs like that. Too many stars have to align to win a Super Bowl with that caliber a QB.

People need to recalibrate their expectations for QBs drafted highly. The supply and demand dynamics surrounding that position dictate that many more of them than would be expected will be busts. Don't let the draft position fool you in this day and age.

"The Guy wrote:

And even if he could be just average, you don't build around QBs like that. Too many stars have to align to win a Super Bowl with that caliber a QB.

For a starting QB I agree, which is why I'm glad we finally got a blue chip prospect in Tua (even if the chances are low any such prospect pans out). But if we're talking a backup QB's, then I'm fine with "average", which is why I'm happy we have Fitz because he makes for a very good backup QB.

Problem is.. Rosen doesn't look like he'll get close to "average" (based on the data so far).

"cbrad wrote:

Yeah, and Rosen was a major contributor to that. The z-score for points scored by the 2018 Cardinals offense is -1.9497 while Rosen's z-score rating was -2.1854. In other words, it's not like Rosen was performing above the rest of the offense (and there are many cases where you see a discrepancy: QB did well but offense overall did not, or vice versa).

I'm just saying you throw a QB in there that definitely needs time to develop, what do you expect to happen? When you're dead last, it isn't simply the QB. All I'm saying is, I think some people have unrealistic expectations for what these young QBs can do. There is such a thing as developing a QB, and there are right ways and wrong ways. I believe that you can ruin a QB that could otherwise have a good career, by bad coaching/situation early. Not that they would be great, but they could be good.

"resnor wrote:

I'm just saying you throw a QB in there that definitely needs time to develop, what do you expect to happen? When you're dead last, it isn't simply the QB. All I'm saying is, I think some people have unrealistic expectations for what these young QBs can do. There is such a thing as developing a QB, and there are right ways and wrong ways. I believe that you can ruin a QB that could otherwise have a good career, by bad coaching/situation early. Not that they would be great, but they could be good.

I agree with all of that, but I don't agree that Rosen has shown he can be "good" much less "decent". It's not just the stats, the coaches and GM's are speaking too. You usually don't trade away a top draft pick like Rosen after one year. And now Miami is looking for trade offers?

Writing's on the wall. The debate here isn't about "QB development" per se, it's about Rosen specifically.

And I for one did not see ANY improvement in his main weakness: decision making/processing speed. Had we seen improvement, I wouldn't be so vociferous in arguing he's a bust. But there was no improvement.

"cbrad wrote:

Why not go after another low cost option? You haven't given any good argument against that approach.

So you'd draft Tua AND another 2nd round QB this past draft? That doesn't make much sense when you already have a guy you just picked up who started 3 total games.

The points here that I think you're missing is that-

1) The front office traded for Rosen

2) The front office has not tried to trade Rosen this season (the recent quotes says we're "accepting offers"...when are we not accepting offers on any player? That's a complete BS story that only points out OTHER TEAMS besides Miami also see potential in Rosen."

3) So far, Rosen has outplayed Tua in training camp.

4) If Fitz goes down early this season (or gets COVID), it's likely Rosen who will get the call to start once again.

All this thread proves is that Miami and other organizations see potential in Rosen. But you're telling me that based on his stats for the first 16 games, he's already washed up. As a fan, should I believe you or multiple teams who see potential there...when my gut says that I believe the same things those GM's are thinking?

We traded for Rosen in order to get an ultra-cheap four year tryout. If he's not the guy, then we really didn't lose anything...which is why Miami is still betting that he could be the guy someday. You're being irrational about this and ignoring Rosen's path based on an obscure one-season stat that says he should have had a good game in there somewhere...yet you haven't watched game-by-game film and did 100% of your analysis based on stats and a highlight video.

My point here is that Miami (and others posting here) have taken a deeper look and they still believe there's potential. If you don't trust their process, then this team is doomed regardless.

"KeyFin wrote:

So you'd draft Tua AND another 2nd round QB this past draft?

No. Read the sentence right after the one you quoted. I said a late draft pick or undrafted. How is that not a better option if there's no good evidence Rosen will even be "average".

"KeyFin wrote:

The points here that I think you're missing is that-

1) The front office traded for Rosen

2) The front office has not tried to trade Rosen this season (the recent quotes says we're "accepting offers"...when are we not accepting offers on any player? That's a complete BS story that only points out OTHER TEAMS besides Miami also see potential in Rosen."

3) So far, Rosen has outplayed Tua in training camp.

4) If Fitz goes down early this season (or gets COVID), it's likely Rosen who will get the call to start once again.

All this thread proves is that Miami and other organizations see potential in Rosen. But you're telling me that based on his stats for the first 16 games, he's already washed up. As a fan, should I believe you or multiple teams who see potential there...when my gut says that I believe the same things those GM's are thinking?

You're forgetting the most important event: we drafted Tua. Why do that if coaches were confident in Rosen?

No, keeping him as possibly a 3rd string QB (Tua is clearly the future) doesn't mean coaches are confident he'll turn into something valuable. He's just cheap, so the cost of keeping him isn't that great. That's not a vote of confidence.

"cbrad wrote:

No, keeping him as possibly a 3rd string QB (Tua is clearly the future) doesn't mean coaches are confident he'll turn into something valuable. He's just cheap, so the cost of keeping him isn't that great. That's no vote of confidence.

We know Fitzpatrick is retiring....he's already said that he knows he's a placeholder. So Rosen's role is to be a 2nd stringer both this season and in the future, unless he plays well enough to make them rethink that. But what if Tua goes down after Fitz retires? That 3rd string QB is extremely important this season with the COVID stuff going on.

And honestly, we don't know today whether Rosen is 2nd or 3rd string....I have a feeling he will end up #2 on the depth chart.

"KeyFin wrote:

We know Fitzpatrick is retiring....he's already said that he knows he's a placeholder.

Placeholder for Tua.

"KeyFin wrote:

But what if Tua goes down after Fitz retires? That 3rd string QB is extremely important this season with the COVID stuff going on.

Agree.. which is why we should have taken a late round or undrafted QB instead of keeping Rosen — you know, someone who might have a better chance of playing some games at "average" level.

"cbrad wrote:

You're forgetting the most important event: we drafted Tua. Why do that if coaches were confident in Rosen?

I contended a year ago that the coaches weren't confident in Rosen:

https://thephins.com/threads/josh-rosen-isnt-the-future.94535/

"cbrad wrote:

Agree.. which is why we should have taken a late round or undrafted QB instead of keeping Rosen — you know, someone who might have a better chance of playing some games at "average" level.

Again, we'll see what happens but I'm pretty confident that your stat-based opinions will be proven wrong this season.

"KeyFin wrote:

Again, we'll see what happens but I'm pretty confident that your stat-based opinions will be proven wrong this season.

Yes we'll see. First question is who gets cut tomorrow.

"Silverphin wrote:

Surprise cut: Dolphins are releasing QB Josh Rosen, source tells ESPN.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 5, 2020

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29813475/dolphins-releasing-quarterback-josh-rosen

Ugh, I hated that trade so much.

Arizona absolutely fleeced us in that trade. Still can't believe we gave up a second rounder.

That should be a referendum on the ability of NFL personnel to tease apart quarterbacks’ ability from their surroundings on film.

"KeyFin wrote:

Again, we'll see what happens but I'm pretty confident that your stat-based opinions will be proven wrong this season.

"cbrad wrote:

Yes we'll see. First question is who gets cut tomorrow.

Didn't even take till tomorrow lol. Now it's 2 teams that realize the obvious: Rosen = BUST.

Respect to Flores for his no nonsense attitude!

Oh.. one more thing: note that there were no teams willing to trade for Rosen. Not even a 7th rounder.