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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 3, 2020.
I'd rather trade Tua personally but what do I know. Kind if getting tired of being a Madden team who makes trades that dont matter.
Picks beyond the 4th round the 5th, 6th, 7th, in my opinion have little to no value. I'd rather go after UDFA who tend to pan out better than 6th or 7th rounders. Having a bunch just means a bunch of guys who wont be on your team in 2 years. It's better to trade them away for average players.
Anything short of an expected early 3rd is just a bad trade value wise in this scenario. I'd rather get nothing and hold on to a player than lose a young player by receiving something with absolutely no value back.
It would have to be for a good price. Fitz is riding into the sunset and Tua has legitimate durability concerns. If you trade Rosen away you're just going to have to replace him and at what price? Typical Dolphins MO is to acquire a QB for a second rounder, give him away for a fourth and, replace him for a second, wash, rinse, repeat. I would hope that we could break away from terrible habits. Rosen is a good fit right where he is.
That makes a whole lot more sense than relying on an 'oulde' quarterback to carry the team the whole season (unless Tagovailoa a simply blows our socks off.) Unless someone offers us the keys to the car for Rosen, keep him at least until next year's draft and see if anyone offers enough for him then (still depending on our viability in the QB room.)
Why would you rather trade Tua? Josh Rosen has failed 3 times in 3 years and will be a journeyman QB.
Please explain that statement.
Good teams move on from players they don't feel have the ability or the mindset to succeed. Would you prefer a return to the ego driven days of Tannenbaum that refused to accept reality? Or the days when Drew Brees wasn't drafted as to not insult Jay Fiedler?
This is a new way of doing business and one that will be far more, and I mean far more successful. Watch and see.
It also has the secondary effect of putting players on notice - Put up or shut up time in Miami with no explanation needed.
The only keys to the car Rosen is getting is a used 1985 Yugo.
I would hold on to him personally, but maybe the FO doesn't see his return value getting any higher than what it is now.
I'd be happy if they can get anything — a 7th even — for him. Rosen = major time bust.
Regardless, my respect for Flores will go up if they get rid of him. Can't keep busts on the team around like that.
Guy has played on some of the least talented teams ever assembled and he's a bust. Ok.
There have been a lot of QB's that have played on teams with minimal talent. Rosen is hardly unique in that. However, as far as I can tell, he's the ONLY QB since 1978 whose first 16 starts were ALL below league average passer rating.
Puts him in the record books in the wrong way.
I also didn't see any improvement in his decision making/processing speed last year (a major weakness of his), so it's not like the trajectory was going up from a bad start. No, as far as I'm concerned he's one of the biggest busts at QB in the last 20 years given his draft position.
He wasn't that good in college and was drafted higher than he should have been. He is what he is, and that's fools gold.
Funny, Ryan Fitzpatrick looked pretty good when he was renamed the starter..
And please don't use the Ryan Fitzpatrick veteran argument, a lot of people that have defended Rosen will also criticize Tua for not beating out Fitz.
Top 10 QB's (draft wise) should have no problem maintaining the starting position during a tank season. He wasn't even competent enough to have Flores give him more time on the field when the season was all but over.
To be fair, I thought Rosen looked better than the results said, in his shorttime he got last season.
I don't think it's just the eye test.. I think it's his ability to process the field and make quick decisions. He folds under pressure. Did it in AZ and did it in Miami.
I say hold on to him for another season. Fitz is a reckless player and Tua is a rookie that isn't ready. I'm not saying that Rosen is a good player, but the odds are high that Fitz wont finish the season as the starter. We need to carry three QBs this year. Sorry, but Hell NO to Jake Ruddock.
And his trade value isn't going to go up any as he 1) gets older, and 2) sits on a bench.
I can’t agree that Rosen is a major bust.
He was drafted 10th overall in 2018 and went to a dumpster fire of a team in Arizona.
He gets traded to Miami...new team, new head coach, new offense, gets what, 3 starts before he was replaced and ride the bench since.
Rosen hasn’t had a true opportunity to fully develop, much like Tannehill. Let’s be honest, the Dolphins were a second rated stripped of talent team.
If Rosen can actually get under center of a team that needs just a quarterback as the final piece, he may actually be able to play the level everyone expected him to
And you could say that about every quarterback in the league. The problem however is that those surroundings don't exist, and so you're making Josh Rosen's success dependent on something unrealistic.
Like I always say, we might be able to get an exceptionally talented high school quarterback to play adequately in the NFL if we surrounded him with the 10 best other offensive players in the history of the game. The problem is of course that those surroundings can't possibly exist.
So sit back and ponder for a moment that you've just made Josh Rosen's ability to succeed in the NFL dependent on something that doesn't exist in the NFL. Doesn't that tell you something about Josh Rosen's ability?
A lot of QB's drafted high go to bad teams. It's why they get drafted high. But some show an immediate impact like fellow draftee (in 2018) Mayfield. Cleveland was historically bad, going 1-31 the prior 2 years. Neither Arizona in 2018 nor Miami in 2019 were historically bad like Cleveland was. Maybe only the expansion Tampa Bay Bucs in 1976 compare.
Anyway, Mayfield (unlike Rosen) makes an immediate impact and leads that team to multiple wins. You can even see that the QB was responsible for that difference when you watch the games. No.. you can't just create a web of excuses for poor play. At some point you have to produce. And like I said Rosen's first 16 starts ALL were below league average!
You think that compares to Tannehill? Not even close. Did you know that 8 out of 16 of Tannehill's first 16 starts had a passer rating above league average? That was his rookie year in supposedly a "bad" situation. Even below average QB's (not talking about Tannehill) have multiple games above league average. Not Rosen. Why? Because Rosen = BUST.
Rosen has done something not even Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith or JaMarcus Russel were able to do. Yes they were all QBs on bad situations on bad teams but all of them managed at least one game with an above league average passer rating in their first 16 starts. Even Jared Goff in his infamously bad rookie QB season, the one that had many pundits saying it was so bad that no QB had come back from such a bad rookie season to be a viable NFL QB, had one game with an above average passer rating.
For the record I don’t think Rosen has any problems with throwing the ball. It’s what’s between his ears that worries me.
I don’t think Rosen’s inability to deal with pressure can be fixed.
I don’t think Rosen’s leadership skills allow him to rally a team in a bad situation.
I get the impression Rosen thinks he is better than he really is and therefore doesn’t do the hard graft.
He has had like 5 or something o coordinators in the last 5 years, terrible teams in front of him, from what I have see is that he can throw a nice ball, has nothing between the ears and can not process dog sh*&. Id keep him as our back up for now and next year and pray we never have to use him
The Dolphins would like to trade Rosen?
That's another brilliant observation brought to you by Obvious Man and Captain DUHHH!
If they could trade him for a years free landscaping service I'd say take it.
It's funny- so many here said after 2018, Tannehill was washed out. Then he posted the league's best passer rating a year later with a new team. Do I really have to remind folks that the talent Tannehill had around him in Miami in 2018 was all-pro compared to our 2019 roster that Rosen played a few games behind?
Last season, Rosen had three beautiful deep TD passes dropped. He also had two interceptions that hit receivers in stride and watched the ball tipped to defenders. Plus he was under tremendous pressure the entire time behind the league's worst line. Reverse those five plays and he had a decent showing in limited action with probably the league's worst team in NFL history around him.
We're paying Rosen 2M a year to develop behind Fitzpatrick. He's young and still growing as a player- there is ZERO REASON to trade a guy like that in a COVID season. Folks need to calm down and take a breath here- the plan was never for Rosen to make the Pro Bowl year one. He's a solid insurance policy against Tua's hip and he's younger than Joe Burrow. Miami has no intention of trading him unless someone overpays, which I doubt anyone will. We are in an ideal position with Rosen at this point.
I think why some of you are freaking out is because where he was drafted- but I'll remind you that we got him for the 60th overall pick, which we snagged in a trade-down. We got a steal on a young QB that may or may not develop, and he's easily the most talented 3rd stringer we've had in decades.
It's only a steal if he pans out. If he flops that's a wasted draft pick (fairly high one too).
To be clear, I think it was a good move to trade for him — you need to keep trying until you find a franchise QB — but you also need to know when to cut your losses. "Hope for the best" is not a good strategy.
I honestly don't understand why we wouldn't keep him on the cheap as a backup?
It's a test of your evaluation ability. If your eval says he's almost certainly not going to pan out, then go get another prospect that's also cheap and see if he can develop.
I agree, but "cut him after a few games with the worst offense in the history of the league" isn't a strategy either. The only way we know if he's a deal or not is to let the kid play out his ultra-cheap contract and see what happens.
We have this year and two more full seasons that will cost us $6M total...you can't find a decent backup QB for that so there's already some value there by doing nothing. It's obvious that Fitz pretty much has one foot out the door already, so Rosen will be much more valuable to us next season anyway. There's just zero reason to trade him UNLESS someone's going to pay a 2nd rounder or an immediate starter.
It's really not helpful to vastly exaggerate how "bad" things were for us, not just last year but in previous years.
You say "worst offense in the history of the league". Yet there were 7 offenses that were worse than us JUST in 2019 (by points scored)!! Like I said earlier, historically bad is what you saw from Cleveland from 2016-2017, and the Dolphins have NEVER been that bad.
Finally, it's not just a few games here. It's a full season's worth of games. That's still small sample size, but when your QB has not even ONCE shown he can perform at average level (by passer rating), it's really stretching credibility to suggest there's evidence we should keep Rosen as a future prospect instead of another cheap option.
The 2018 Cardinals were the 32nd ranked offense in the league. Lol. Don't know how they were historically, but that was a terrible offense that year.
Yeah, and Rosen was a major contributor to that. The z-score for points scored by the 2018 Cardinals offense is -1.9497 while Rosen's z-score rating was -2.1854. In other words, it's not like Rosen was performing above the rest of the offense (and there are many cases where you see a discrepancy: QB did well but offense overall did not, or vice versa).
The Dolphins team that ended 2019 wasn't the same one they started with- and I mean that literally because we traded to fill holes throughout the season. Maybe you forget how bad Fitzpatrick looked early on and how many hits he endured under center before things started to click around week 10.
The week 1-4 Dolphins were HISTORICALLY BAD with the worst point differential in history when Rosen took over. You can twist that as much as you want by factoring out the entire season, but the fact of the matter is that Rosen had almost zero chance to be successful in those three games.
And yes, I realize he started 13 horrible games in Arizona. Things weren't much better there- dead last in offensive production and leading the league in sacks, time to pressure, etc. He made several jaw-dropping plays in Arizona and he had a few more in limited action in Miami. For instance, you can't fault him for Preston Williams and Grant dropping deep TD passes that were on the money as Rosen ran for his life...those were big-time, carer defining types of throws that Fitzpatrick couldn't make. Rosen has a better arm than Fitz and Tua, has more power and velocity, so it's crazy to just write him off when he's (A) basically a free highly rated quarterback prospect and (B) not given a fair chance to succeed in any of those 16 starts.
Again, I'm not saying Rosen will develop or even that he'll be an average NFL starter...but he still very easily could be. When you weigh the risks/rewards on him it would be insane to trade him today when he's already paid for by another team. Because despite what everyone else has said here, there's still a chance that he ends up being great.
First 2 weeks yes. The games Rosen started we were bad but nowhere near historically bad.
Yeah, most of them were plays demonstrating bad decision making, or just slow processing speed in general, you know.. like throwing to a place the receiver was a while earlier.
That's the point. Rosen (based on his previous play) does not look like he could "easily" be average. He hasn't even done that ONCE. So the risk/reward calculation is mostly one of opportunity cost. Why not go after another low cost option? You haven't given any good argument against that approach. For example, I was banging the drum suggesting we draft another QB to replace Rosen with a late round pick or possibly an undrafted one.
This is a QB eval question dude. Rosen doesn't have it. Best to try out another low risk low probability prospect.
And even if he could be just average, you don't build around QBs like that. Too many stars have to align to win a Super Bowl with that caliber a QB.
People need to recalibrate their expectations for QBs drafted highly. The supply and demand dynamics surrounding that position dictate that many more of them than would be expected will be busts. Don't let the draft position fool you in this day and age.
For a starting QB I agree, which is why I'm glad we finally got a blue chip prospect in Tua (even if the chances are low any such prospect pans out). But if we're talking a backup QB's, then I'm fine with "average", which is why I'm happy we have Fitz because he makes for a very good backup QB.
Problem is.. Rosen doesn't look like he'll get close to "average" (based on the data so far).
I'm just saying you throw a QB in there that definitely needs time to develop, what do you expect to happen? When you're dead last, it isn't simply the QB. All I'm saying is, I think some people have unrealistic expectations for what these young QBs can do. There is such a thing as developing a QB, and there are right ways and wrong ways. I believe that you can ruin a QB that could otherwise have a good career, by bad coaching/situation early. Not that they would be great, but they could be good.
I agree with all of that, but I don't agree that Rosen has shown he can be "good" much less "decent". It's not just the stats, the coaches and GM's are speaking too. You usually don't trade away a top draft pick like Rosen after one year. And now Miami is looking for trade offers?
Writing's on the wall. The debate here isn't about "QB development" per se, it's about Rosen specifically.
And I for one did not see ANY improvement in his main weakness: decision making/processing speed. Had we seen improvement, I wouldn't be so vociferous in arguing he's a bust. But there was no improvement.
So you'd draft Tua AND another 2nd round QB this past draft? That doesn't make much sense when you already have a guy you just picked up who started 3 total games.
The points here that I think you're missing is that-
1) The front office traded for Rosen
2) The front office has not tried to trade Rosen this season (the recent quotes says we're "accepting offers"...when are we not accepting offers on any player? That's a complete BS story that only points out OTHER TEAMS besides Miami also see potential in Rosen."
3) So far, Rosen has outplayed Tua in training camp.
4) If Fitz goes down early this season (or gets COVID), it's likely Rosen who will get the call to start once again.
All this thread proves is that Miami and other organizations see potential in Rosen. But you're telling me that based on his stats for the first 16 games, he's already washed up. As a fan, should I believe you or multiple teams who see potential there...when my gut says that I believe the same things those GM's are thinking?
We traded for Rosen in order to get an ultra-cheap four year tryout. If he's not the guy, then we really didn't lose anything...which is why Miami is still betting that he could be the guy someday. You're being irrational about this and ignoring Rosen's path based on an obscure one-season stat that says he should have had a good game in there somewhere...yet you haven't watched game-by-game film and did 100% of your analysis based on stats and a highlight video.
My point here is that Miami (and others posting here) have taken a deeper look and they still believe there's potential. If you don't trust their process, then this team is doomed regardless.
No. Read the sentence right after the one you quoted. I said a late draft pick or undrafted. How is that not a better option if there's no good evidence Rosen will even be "average".
You're forgetting the most important event: we drafted Tua. Why do that if coaches were confident in Rosen?
No, keeping him as possibly a 3rd string QB (Tua is clearly the future) doesn't mean coaches are confident he'll turn into something valuable. He's just cheap, so the cost of keeping him isn't that great. That's not a vote of confidence.
We know Fitzpatrick is retiring....he's already said that he knows he's a placeholder. So Rosen's role is to be a 2nd stringer both this season and in the future, unless he plays well enough to make them rethink that. But what if Tua goes down after Fitz retires? That 3rd string QB is extremely important this season with the COVID stuff going on.
And honestly, we don't know today whether Rosen is 2nd or 3rd string....I have a feeling he will end up #2 on the depth chart.