Thanks for starting this thread. I've been wanting to get into a Banks discussion. Coming into the year, he was touted as the highest CB prospect... and looked on fire and a sure top ten pick. Then I heard a ton of buzz that he struggled, that he is too slow, etc. It's had me re-thinking if he is right at 12, or risky at 12. I still haven;t watched any 2012 video so I can't say. Regarding his speed questions... I did this comparison: Pro Bowl CB's Jonathan Joseph 4.31 (Fastest 40 times) Darrelle Revis 4.38 Champ Bailey 4.28 (Fastest 40 times) Charles Woodson 4.4 Brandon Browner 4.63 Carlos Rogers 4.44 Charles Tillman 4.49 JONATHAN BANKS 4.42-4.6 (thus I want to see a strong 20 yard shuttle time) Carlos Rogers and Charles Tillman both had top 20 fastest 20-yard shuttle times over the last ten years of all combine participants. Change of direction makes up for lack of elite straight line speed. THis is a great example of a player for whom the combine matters a LOT, to me anyways. If he posts an average or poor shuttle time, I move him down into the mid to late teens, maybe lower on my draft board. If his shuttle tests well, then I think he still has a good chance at playing at a high level in the NFL instead of being 'just a guy'.
He played injured throughout the season but showed improvement in his game, namely technique. He still has much to learn though and certainly possesses talent to be a top corner.
The characteristic that Banks has that is severely lacking in Miami's secondary is ball skills. The guy has a nose for the football. He gets interceptions, and he also strips the ball and forces fumbles. He is really good at reading the quarterback's eyes. I don't know if anyone on here remembers Walt Harris, but Walt was a former MSU cornerback that was a first round pick in 1996. Johnthan is very similar to Walt, only he's bigger. Walt was drafte #13 in the first round in 1996 by the Bears and had 35 interceptions over a 12 year career.
This is what initially had me all over the idea of drafting Banks... but the speed question concerns me. Those INTs may come with a side dish of being burned for big play touchdowns, which makes it less great.
I have his game against Arkansas on tape an was not overly impressed mainly due to not being able to change direction quick enough to stay with guys in the open field. If alen is right about him playing injured, then it could explain things though.
He hurt his knee against Middle Tennessee State the week before the Alabama game. He played against Alabama, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Ole Miss with a bum wheel. Prior to the MTSU injury, I do not believe Banks gave up a touchdown reception all season. The week prior to the MTSU game, Banks held Cordarrelle Patterson to 1 catch for something like 12 yards on plays where they were matched up one on one, and Banks was in a cover 3 zone on that play.
Here's some more on Banks, some video in the link: "Milliner may be slightly ahead of Banks in terms of pure technique, but it's the latter who is superior as a ball hawk and blitzer, and that's what makes him worthy of a selection of a top 20 selection. If the Dolphins like what they see in Banks, they might be able to trade down a bit and still land him. Given Miami's current corner group, the team could do so much worse than Johnthan Banks right now. But could they do better? That remains to be seen." http://www.thephinsider.com/2013/1/18/3889590/2013-nfl-draft-video-review-johnthan-banks My best guess is that Banks is the guy, very good cover corner with a knack for turnovers, just what the doctor ordered. I like the case for Patterson, it just strikes me as risky at #12, not enough of a body of work from him. Something just doesn't sit quite right as per him at #12. It's good that he runs reverses well and can handle kickoff returns, but I'm more interested in his pure receiving skills. Nice cut back ability and change of direction, especially for a man of his length, but I think that the comparisons to Harvin in that regard are overblown. With plenty of 2nd round WR and pass rush candidates likely to be available, Banks just seems to fit the bill. We'll see how the Hartline and Sean Smith contract demands go, that should factor in as well. I don't think that either one deserves to get overpaid, if they were all that good there wouldn't be such a need for either position. Interesting note from KB21 how Banks shut down Patterson in their match up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dO1Cs_Yu1w http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW1sc2_HxFk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FuEbHN2YGs
IMO Banks is a good, but not great CB. He has a ton of big play potential, but will also give up the big play. I don't see him as a shut-down CB at the next level. Personally I would prefer more impact from a 1st round pick in the top half of the first round. I see him as very comparable to Sean Smith when he was coming out. In most drafts you get this level of talent in the 2nd round. I think the only reason he's being talked up to our pick at #12 is that this is such a poor CB draft.
Plus, teams only averaged around 35 yards a game throwing the ball at him. On the year, he gave up only 422 yards on 60 pass attempts.
Honestly, Antonio Cromartie is a better comparison. I think I read where Jerry Reese made that comparison at one point. Only Banks has better character than Cromartie.
I think Cromartie was both bigger and faster. I would put Banks below Cromartie as a prospect and even then Cromartie developed into a #2 CB at the next level. I think it would be a mistake to use #12 on a future #2 CB.
I think that Cromartie is clearly a #1 CB type talent, he's just paired with Revis and that makes him a #2 on the Jets. Banks and Cromartie seem pretty to to the same size to me, both with those long arms.
Cromartie has most of the talent to be a No. 1 corner. It's his technique that has always been awful. Banks has been lauded for his work ethic in the past, which Cromartie has sorely lacked. As for the comparison to Cromartie, Cromartie was faster and slightly taller. Obviously you can't have perfect comparisons.
Cromartie seems to be somewhat of a bonehead. Iirc someone had a clip of him avoiding making a tackle that was pretty hilarious, I think that I saw it on this site.
I don't think he's a guy that you can say will eliminate one side and let you have that flexibility on defense that a guy like Revis does. IMO that's what makes you a #1 CB that has a big impact. If not you end up having very marginal impact on your defensive production. I don't think it's any coincidence that Revis missed most of the year and the Jets' D had far less impact this year. I'm not sure what the stats were, but I don't focus on those much anyways. Their defense just wasn't scary this year. I think that's what you get in terms of impact when you draft a non-elite CB and expect him to be your #1 CB, very little defensive impact.
Agreed that comparisons can't be perfect. Cromartie was faster and taller, but more of a head case. Smith was also bigger and faster, had similar ball skills, but was slightly less quick. I also think Banks played more like Smith in terms of physicality. I don't see the Cromartie comparison as better.
Yeah, but Revis is either unique or close to it in that regard. I don't think that he's a relevant benchmark, he's that rare Hall of Fame CB who can shut down half of the field. Revis kind of transcends this discussion imo. I see your philosophy when it comes to CB's, bit I don't think that you can just give up and concede those battles to the WRs and QBs, or leave it in the hands of just the pass rush. I think that the onus on the defenses is to overcome the rules changes and favoritism to the passing offenses by attacking with both good coverage and an aggressive pass rush. The Jets defense was of course no the same without Revis, but who knows how much further they would have fallen without Cromartie.
I think that people only still believe that CB is a big impact position b/c of rare guys like Revis. Most other so-called elite CBs don't have much impact at all. In fact, I would say the impact is at best only marginally more than adding a mid-level CB. So why does it makes sense to use a premium pick on a guy who'll have no more impact than a mid-level talent?
WADR that's an assumption that you make. Personally, when it's 3rd and 8 I want CBs out there who have a decent chance of preventing 1st downs, obviously moreso in clutch situations. I just think that you take it too far, kind of an All-Pro or bust attitude when it comes to corners. That's an impact position in my book, one of those must haves- and if I can;t get an All-Pro I sure as heck want to get some good ones anyway, because without them my defense has major problems.
I don't know what WADR means. I just don't believe that any but the few rare CBs actually have a decent chance of preventing that first down. Statistically, you generally find that the difference between most highly paid CBs and most mid-level CBs in terms of stopping those plays over any 3 or 4 year stretch is almost identical. I don't think I take it to far. I think people just fail to understand how little the actual difference is in terms of impact. They have this romanticized image of the CB stopping more passes. Reality is that it doesn't happen. You see it every year when the top CBs change teams (players like Asoumagha, Champ Bailey or Assante Samuel). They sign these huge contracts and the teams pass defense is about the same. For example, in 2010 Asoumagha was on the Raiders and they were the 31st ranked pass D. He leaves and they actually improve to #6. Philly went from #18 w/o Asoumagha to #23 with him. Bailey goes from Washington to Denver after the 2003 season. Denver's ranking is unchanged (27th both years). Washington drops from 19 to 26. The Pats were 27th in 2007 with Samuel and then 22nd without him. Philly went from 15th to 27th when they added him. These are just a few examples, but it's something I've noted over the years. Teams don't get better when they use high resources on CBs. At least not since the passing rules were changed. I don't believe that our record would be any different if we had Cromartie on this team this past year. (And I think he's a better prospect than Banks, not to mention that Asoumagha, Bailey and Samuel are far better). As for my All-pro or bust attitude, it only applies to the first round at lower impact positions. I don't want to use premium resources when I can get the same production elsewhere. I'd easily take Warmack over Banks at #12. I just don't see the impact from the CB position.
If you have a good pass rush you really need smarts and discipline at CB rather than rare athletic ability. Ofcourse someone who can CATCH would be a welcomed addition aswell.
I agree. I would rather spend my premium resources on players that could contribute to that really good pass rush. If you recall, coming out Sean Smith was similarly lauded for his ball skills. Like Banks, he was a WR convert who had a ton of INTs.
I agree. I also don't think there's a whole lot of difference between the majority of the WRs in league right now. I think you have the elite 2-3 guys the low 2-3 guys and then more or less everyone else. Because of that, I don't think you need top 2-3 CBs.
I'm not crazy about these acronymes, but that one stands for "with all due respect". There are plenty of movable parts on a defense, so again, wadr, I don't know the specifics of the Raiders post Asoumagha, et al. Football is still football though, and corners still have to cover, they just can't make contact after 5 yards like they used to. Better corners will stop more, passes, prevent more 3rd downs, than not so good corners. That just seems to be straight up logic. My problem with your argument is that you seem to be saying that the CBs have no real chance, unless they're ultra elite, so screw it. Get average corners and focus on the pass rush. That just doesn't make sense to me, but to each his own.
I remember the acrobatic interceptions in college and even the preseason, not sure where it all went wrong.
I think that you're better off having three good CBs than looking for the top guys. Basically, three $5 mill per year types than a $12 - $15 mill and scrubs. I also think that you're odds of fielding a good secondary are best when you bring in 2nd - 5th round CBs and mid level FAs than when you use first round picks and pursue top FA CBs. I would then use those premium picks/$ on QB, pass rushers and safety along with top 5 potential talent at WR, TE, LT, C, DT. IMO that results in having a salary cap where most of your dollars go to the impact positions.
The thing is, it's not just an opinion. If you look at the passes defended stats, completion stats, etc. for just about any CB over a 3 or 4 year period, you'd be hard pressed to find any difference between most of the so-called elite guys and the so-called average guys. (I used to have a few sites that tracked this kind of stuff, but I don't currently). I understand your logic and it seems reasonable, but it doesn't reflect what actually happens. People want to say that CBs are more important after the rule changes, but it doesn't work out that way. I actually can't recall a single instance in the last dozen years or so where a team signed the top CB and their defense got a lot better. It happens when a team adds a productive pass rusher or S, but not with a CB. Obviously there are many moving parts on any team, but it's also obvious that certain positions have greater impact. I haven't seen any evidence that supports CB being one of those high impact positions.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have fielded elite level defense the past 15-20 years with IMO average cornerbacks. If you can get to the QB in 3 seconds as opposed to 5 then you can take that approach. This is why I tell Sean Smith to make sure the door doesn't hit his *** on the way out.
Bumping this because I think Banks is being a bit overlooked as a guy with a fairly decent probability of being ours at #12. Not much new to add, though a recent mock I saw had Banks going in the second round, which seems ridiculous.
http://nflmanniac.blogspot.com/2013/01/2013-nfl-draft-prospect-cornerback-cb.html Wow! I knew he was good, but I did not realize that he intercepted 38% of the passes he got his hands on. Does this secondary need someone with those kind of ball skills or what? I like that this blog post somewhat compares him to Richard Sherman, who might just be the best cornerback in the NFL right now. Both are bigger, more physical cornerbacks that have a nose for the football. Former Mississippi State defensive coordinator Chris Wilson needs his rear end kicked for playing so much soft zone coverage with two of the top 7-8 cornerbacks in this draft on his team. They should have had Banks and Slay locked up in man to man coverage on the outside, but instead, MSU played more cover 3 and soft cover 2. Johnthan Banks checks off many columns that Jeff Ireland is looking for. He's a high character guy who was a team captain at Mississippi State, and he's a play maker in the secondary. He's got the size Jeff likes in his cornerbacks, as Jeff was recently quoted saying "I like big cornerbacks." I have to admit that althought I'm not crazy about Sean Smith's lack of ball skills, I am intrigued by the possibility of resigning him and pairing him with Johnthan Banks. If we could get Smith to play like Brandon Browner, Banks could be our Richard Sherman.
Oh, I forgot to add that after Johnthan runs at the combine next month, all these folks that have been ranking him in the late first to early second will move him back up because his times will answer any questions about his speed. Once he runs, suddenly folks will be able to focus more on his pure coverage ability, which is tops in this draft, IMO.
Yeah I've been harping on that for a while. He's going to re-stabilize himself at the Combine at a time when several of his competitors will suddenly develop questions.
Every time they've gotten a chance, Jeff Ireland and Joe Philbin have talked about a need to add play makers to the offense and takeaways to the defense. Drafting Johnthan Banks would fit perfectly into that context. With Dee Milliner (who is and has always been my #1 CB in the Draft) seeming more and more likely to go top 10 before we pick, Johnthan Banks is one of, if not the most likely pick at #12 overall for the Miami Dolphins, absent a trade down.
