Jason La Canfora: The Miami Dolphins are overhyped

I'm not trying to be harsh but you might be sounding a bit pessimistic.
Let's see what's in the glass before you drink it.
As the saying goes, it sounds good on paper.....
My personnel opinion is that I hope you're wrong.

 

Wait, Hartline must've come on the field late and Bethea just didn't see him, right? ---I mean that's the only reason he'd have his back turned to such a great 20+ yard receiver, no?

That might as well be 9 in the box on 2nd & 9. lol
Situations like that is when we need Pouncey pulling to the weak side and let him have some fun with a free safety.

 

Good post CK, nice to see you back in action and I mean that sincerely . Nothing personal with me bro, either giving or taking...

But you're wrong .

Phins vs Colts 2013 will be defined by two matchups. The first is Pouncey vs Franklin. Franklin is a nice player but Pouncey will handle him one on one meaning Cogs and Jerry will be able to release, combo block at worst, and pick off the Colts' inside LBs with relative ease. That might be OK if they had dominant guys at the DE spots, but they don't so it'll be a long day for their ILBs as they constantly have OGs getting onto them and preventing them from doing their jobs. There are a couple ways to combat this and we saw them both in the 2012 matchup. The first is to have the ILBs move to fill a count early, before the OGs can get up field and take them on. That's fine when it's Fasano at TE but if Indy's ILB cheat on the run this year it'll be Keller leaking out behind them for easy catches over the middle and neither Angerer nor Freeman have the ability to stay with Keller, especially if he has a head start. As you can see here, Angerer is matched up 1 on 1 vs Clay b/c the Colts decided to send a 6 man pressure. The result? TD.


Keller is even more adept as a route runner so any time he's matched up w/ a Colts LB its going to be advantage Miami. Indy's other option will be to use their safeties to guard the the intermediate middle, allowing their LBs to cheat vs the run. That will also be hard to do this year because of Mr. Wallace. If the safeties cheat up even a little Wallace becomes a major threat and it's not just the 9 route. If the Db presses, the faux outside release then hard slant to the inside is wide open. If the DB plays press w/ inside leverage then obviously the go route is a option w/ no chance of safety help. If the Db is soft/off then the smoke route, the dig, comeback, post are all available depending on alignment. The simple fact that Pouncey can handle Franlkin 1 on 1 throws the Colts' entire defense of kilter.

OTOH Soliai vs Satele is a total mismatch in Miami's favor. Not a chance in hell they'll single block Big Paul, matter of fact they can't handle Starks 1 on 1 either. That means our LBs will have free runs at Ballard, Bradshaw or whoever runs the ball for Indy. Leave Satele 1 on 1 on Soliai will have his *** 5 yards in the backfield, and BTW, don't even think about bouncing outside b/c Wake and/or Misi will have that ish shut down all day long. It'll be more of what happened last year, lots of 3rd and 10, 12, 13, 14. But there won't be any Jimmy Wilson's or Nolan Carroll's to throw 18 yd curls against this year. It'll Brent Grimes, Richard Marshall, and whoever runs the training camp gauntlet to become DB3. Wake won't be the only pass rush threat, and with better CBs outside, expect more blitzes from the LBs and safeties. Luck will not be a happy camper in the pocket on those 7 step drops, at all.

Long story short, Miami will dominate both sides of the LOS, again, only this time the Colts will not have an equally sizable advantage at the skill positions; in fact they'll be "Luck"y to draw even. And we're going to beat their asses.

 

Las Vegas has the Dolphins at a 7.5 win over/under. One book had us at a 6.5 win over/under. I just outlined a schedule that has the Dolphins winning 8 games and beating both of those over/unders.

I'm not trying to be harsh but what exactly do you expect me to say? This post is pretty much the epitome of how a rational person's entirely rational analysis will be unwelcome on a fan message board because it doesn't involve the Dolphins winning the Super Bowl.

 

Totally agree here.

I actually think Cleveland will be a more difficult matchup than Indy. We won't be able to manhandle them they way will vs Indy, they are familiar with how to play Wallace and they have a DB in Joe Haden who can hold his own vs Wallace w/o safety help. I can see that game being tight deep into the 2nd half, with the first team to make the major mistake or wear down being the loser.

I also think ATL is a tough game. With Stephen Jackson on board how in the hell do you defend them? Jones is a must double, especially with hour smallish corners. White can get open vs just about anyone, Gonzales catches balls whether he's open or not. The only answer for them is a relentless pass rush. They can't play defense worth a **** but with the offense they have I'd have to favor Ryan over Tannehill if it comes a shootout. If we can run, run, run, force some turnovers, keep Ryan off the field and wear them down in the heat we might be able to get a win. Almost worked vs Nawlins back in 09. Gonna be tough though.

 

Vegas lines are set based on what number is most likely to attract the most wagers, INOW based more on public perception than anything else. You set the line at 7 and if you get a lot of overs you move it up to get more unders and vice versa. It's a prediction on how people will bet not how teams will fare.

 

2nd and 9 near mid field in the first qtr of a scoreless game TP... Who the frick does that in the NFL????

BTW, Hartline got that same treatment all day long and he actually ended up w/ 8 for 107. Not because he's a deep threat, but because he's sooooo not a deep threat. That's a concept that's hard for some to pick up on. I'm so glad Wallace is here, a few months from now we'll be able to post screenies and say "Cotdayimitman that's how NFL defenses treat you when you're a true threat".

 

This scares the hell out of me. I saw a 7-9 team that lost a few on missed kicks in OT. They upgraded some weaknesses and had a rookie QB that will now be in his second year. I thought 8-8 or 9-7 was a pretty safe prediction - but seeing those Vegas numbers was a bucket of cold water to the face.

 

The thing about the Cleveland game is they will now have to deal with playing without Josh Gordon in that game. They're counting on him this year. He's a guy that stretches the field. I happen to think they can do some damage over the middle against us with Jordan Cameron and Davone Bess (Bess is more up-and-down than people generally think IMO, and I can guarantee against Miami he will be "up"), but it won't be enough. Without Josh Gordon to stretch the field vertically, Norv Turner won't necessarily be able to hit the team up for big damage in the flats, which is something he's always loved to do. They're going to have to hit Miami with the ground attack and that flies right into the strength (or what should be the strength) of the Miami defense.

I happen to agree with you about their defense. From a personnel standpoint, I believe their defense is as legitimate as Miami's. However, they're switching schemes. I suppose the scheme could all fall into place immediately as if they've been playing it for years, but common wisdom holds that it should take a little bit of time for that to happen.

The big X-factor is turnovers, as usual. If Ryan Tannehill starts off this year throwing picks in the first game like he did left and right against the Texans, then the Dolphins may lose the game after all. But I tend to doubt it. Without Josh Gordon in the game I think the Browns lose solidly.

In fact, if the Browns do win that game, you're going to get upset with me again very quickly because to me that would be a very EARLY turning point in my projections for how good the team really is going to be.

 

I don't think this is true. I've spoken with a fair amount of Vegas insiders over the years and everything they tell me says that what you say isn't really the case. They set these based on systems of power ratings in which they take into account previous performance, personnel, coaching changes, venues, etc.

The thing they seem to manipulate in order to get the public betting on both sides is the vig. For instance there's a very common sentiment that the Dolphins will win more than 7 games. As such, when the betting started to flow after they set the 7.5 over/under, there have been adjustments to the vig to where books like Bovada are charging -145 for an Over bet on the Dolphins at 7.5. That kind of vig will quickly kill the enthusiasm for Over 7.5 bets and allow the Under 7.5 bets to trickle in (with the enticement of +115 payout) to get the book even or close to it.

So I don't think I agree with you that Vegas is doing this based on the public perception. Vegas is doing this based on their research and power ratings and those can at times put them at odds with the public perception, as is the case here, which necessitates changing the vig around to accomodate.

 

I was at about a 7.5 and then the news came out on Josh Gordon being suspended for the Miami game. That actually does affect me because I think the Browns outcome is now a virtual certainty. I think I'm at about an 8 right now, one win better than a year ago.

 

Really? If I was a betting man in a better location I'd have wood and take that over asap.

 

A long long time ago I played a little QB and I can tell you that for a right handed QB, pressure off of RE (Wake's side) is the easiest to deal with. You can see it in your peripheral vision, anticipate it, and avoid it by stepping up into the pocket provided there is no pressure from the middle. Pressure off the LE (Jordan?) is much more difficult to deal with. Can't see it till the last second unless you're not focused down field and you're hearing footsteps. Pressure up the middle is the absolute worst b/c it prevents you from stepping into your throws with the proper mechanics. Your vision is impaired, your passing windows close, balls will sail or get batted down, and getting hit in the face and/or planted on your back hurts a lot more than getting hit in the back and landing on your abdomen. Can't use your arms to break your fall when you're falling backwards. If you're lucky your ***/rib cage hits first and you only lose a breath or two, if not you might be winded for a significant period, gasping to call the next play. Worst case you hit head first, your vision is blurry, your OL has to guide you back to the huddle, you cant see the signals from the sideline, the next call has to be run in by a sub and hopefully you remember how to run the play.

 

Excellent point on Josh Gordon. He's the one guy that can discourage us from putting Jones in the box to snuff out Richardson and it'll be tough for them to move the ball w/o TRich keeping them out of obvious passing situations. What worries me is it's the first game of the season, everyone's undefeated and playing with a sense of urgency, etc. They are a physical team who may be able to neutralize our run game w/o Wallace and Keller going bonkers on them. I think we win the game but it won't be pretty and a loss wouldn't shock me. We dominated Cleveland back in 2010 and ended up losing in the final seconds.

 

I find the whole betting thing fascinating so thanks for the insight.

Sidenote, we are 1 pt favorites at Cleveland @ Sportsbook.com and the season wins number is 7.5 with a heavy fade vs the over. To make $100 you'd have to put up $135 on the over, to make $100 on the under you'd have to wager about $95. People more in tuned w/ betting may correct me (please do), but to me it sounds like they are expecting more $$$ on the over 7.5 and are trying to give an incentive to betting on the under. If they genuinely thought the number was 7.5 then why do that? If they think Miami will will hit 8 wins it makes sense, if they think Miami will go under it doesn't. IMO they set a number they think will attract the heaviest/equal action, it'll be interesting to see whether the line moves as we get closer to the season.

 

JLC is a pompous jerk

 

Gotta remember the non Dolphin fans all saw the same old 1 trip to the playoffs in 11 years Dolphins. Why set the line at 8 or 9 and have an avalanche of under bets when you can play if safe, set it at 7.5 with a tease towards the under, get equal action and move it as needed if the betting gets one sided in either direction? They're trying to make money, not predictions.

 

Bingo. Any action is good action when you think about how many people will jump on that and tie it to parlays and whatnot.

 

They set the number according to what their power ratings dictate, but the power ratings will also dictate whether they shade toward the over or under. In this case they probably started out with Over 7.5 at -120, which is normal when your power ratings are saying something like 7.6 or 7.7 or something like that, but the public betting is what has led them to move the vig to -135 and in Bovada's case -145 (which I'm not sure I've seen before on an over/under, to be honest). The reason they don't just move the rating to 8.0 is they don't want to get squeezed at 8 wins. Everyone that bet Over 7.5 thinking there's a great chance the Dolphins go 8-8, suddenly will have the ability to bet the Under on 8.0 wins, closing up their own liability to where if the Dolphins go 7-9 or worse, or 9-7 or better, then the bettor is completely covered and breaks even, yet if the Dolphins go 8-8 (which is the most likely outcome) the bettor gets to collect on the 1st bet while getting his money back on the 2nd bet. Essentially moving the line from 7.5 to 8.0 gives everyone that bet Over 7.5 an opportunity to take riskless money away from the Casino.

 

Helluva post. Thanks for breaking it down for the noobs.

 

Pinnacle is the most accurate sportsbook. Here is what they have Miami at now:

Over 8 Wins +104
Under 8 Wins -121

Don't have time now, but I have some comments on how lines are set and move.

 

I believe the biggest difference in that game was lucks individual play making ability..If we can just contain him somewhat, we win, we didn't and he went off, something has to be done on every team in the league to contain this special trait, or else it will continue to happen, protection breaks down, special trait kicks in, first down..it's completely backbreaking in a football game, getter faster and more athletic around the Los is essential if you are to stand a chance.

 

A safety turning his back to his outside receiver and cheating the run...the theory of worry does not apply..tangible evidence of how speed affects space.

 

That makes a lot of sense, and why I'm talking so much about a specific talent that Luck has..When we face this type of Qb, the right move might be to play Dion vrs Luck, let him rush thru the inside gaps but not with a full rush, let him keep everything in front of him, spy and track the player, use all that delicious explosiveness and speed to distract, pursue, deflect, and finish.

 

I actually really like how the first two games set up for us..I prefer being away from home to start and I like both matchups.

 

sounds like another patriots fan impersonating a media clown to me.

 

I don't mind being away for the first two games, kind of like bonding a little more before the home opener.

 

Yeah. I'd hate for them to come out for the season opener at home and see the stadium 2/3 full .

 

exactly why I said what I did..it's a shame..I live in the present, I'm excited for my team.

 

Yeessir. I think history repeats itself.

2010 2-0 start @Buffalo and @Minnesota. Dansby destroys Peterson in the hole on 4th and goal from the 1. Helluva stand.

 

Yeah I see us winning the first two.

 

That would be awesome, but I'm not counting my chickens until after the games.

 

I count chicken wing bones after games

 

I'm banking on it b/c the D is going to get a serious workout in weeks 3-5.

 

I like the fact that whenever I heard one of our new players talk they mentioned how the identity of the team is hard working, if that is indeed true, they should be really freakin hungry for the browns..and there's no way luck can play at the level against us again, I hope..

I want our defense to be the star..I want Lamar Miller to explode on the to the scene, catching and running, I want Dion Jordan to take the NFL by storm and I want Ryan to manage the game with controlled precise athleticism.