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Is Lamar Miller the KEY to the playoffs for us this year?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by SICK, Jul 24, 2015.

  1. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    It wasn't a fact in the year previous. Given the sample size of 2013 and 2014, there's no statistical argument to be made either way.


    I was just proposing an idea, since there no facts that can be derived from the data. Lamar Miller only averaged 13.5 carries a game. Suggesting carries 11-13 are definitive proof of anything isn't accurate. It's absolutely potato.

    Miami's run blocking ranked bottom 5 in the NFL in 2014. How exactly is Miller suppose to prove himself in your hypothetical situation? It's akin to suggesting Ryan Tannehill should thrive amidst massive pressure. Our last three 1000 yard rushes (Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Reggie Bush) both experienced similar fluctuation in their 11-20 carries during their time in Miami. With Reggie, you could argue similar to Lamar miller. With Ricky and Ronnie, you can't. I'm using Ricky's last two 1000 yard seasons, Reggie's only two seasons in Miami, and Ronnie's best two seasons in Miami.

    2009 Ricky Williams
    1-10: 149 693 4.7
    11-20 75 330 4.4
    21-30 17 98 5.8

    2003 Ricky Williams
    1-10: 160 547 3.4
    11-20 : 140 509 3.6
    21-30: 69 220 3.2
    31+: 23 96 4.2

    Reggie Bush 2011
    1-10: 146 734 5.0
    11-20: 63 239 3.8
    21-30: 9 113 12.6

    Reggie Bush 2012
    1-10: 152 567 3.7
    11-20: 68 377 5.5
    21-30: 7 42 6.0


    Ronnie Brown 2006
    1-10: 130 471 3.6
    11-20: 88 434 4.9
    21-30: 23 103 4.5


    Ronnie Brown 2008
    1-10: 164 703 4.3
    11-20: 58 218 3.8
    21-30: 4 14 3.5

    Power runners vs. speed runners. The results? Flucuations in their 11-20 carries year to year. Especially in a two back system, as they dont have enough attemps in the 11-20 category. Hell, the most talented RB of all-time, Adrian Peterson has the same flucuations between his first 10 and second 10 carries throughout his career. I guess he's weaker from year to another? lol.

    There is no evidence Lamar Miller gets "weaker" after 10 carries. And there's no evidence that Lamar Miller isn't a feature back. He's in a pass heavy offense, featuring a two back system. A lack of volume is not indicative of his ability.
     
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  2. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Who said he lost speed? Lamar Miller has said the opposite. I haven't heard a single bad thing about Miller this off-season from any media folk. And considering he was one of the most efficient RB's in the NFL, the weight gain from 2014 turned out to be a smart decision.

    Dion Jordan gained 25-30lbs pounds in a year (steroids induced, no less). Lamar Miller gained a 14 lbs in two years. The 7 or so lbs from 2014 proved useful, as he was one of the most efficient RB's in the NFL. The 30 lbs Dion Jordan gained proved as useless as his play from one year to the next.


    How do you know they have no confidence in him being a workhorse? Because he's in a two back system? The same two back system Miami has been running since 2008, with power rushers Ricky and Ronnie?

    Jamal Charles isn't an every down back either. Only had 206 carries for 1033 yards. Down from last years 259. Which was down from the last year before that, 285. I mean, he was averaging 5 yards per carry, why would you take him out for Kniles Davis, who averaged 3.6? It's obvious Charles should gotten almost every carry... It's almost like there was a purposeful strategy behind limiting his carries...



    1). Miami went run heavy against NE because the pass game was struggling.

    2). Knowshon Moreno got 24 carries because Lamar Miller got "benched" for fumbling in the 2nd quarter. Prior to the fumble, Miller and Moreno were trading out every series. After the fumble, Moreno started every series from that point on, with Miller spelling a play or two, until the 4th quarter. Lamar started 1 series in the 4th. Go check the game log to confirm if you wish. And yes, he was "benched" as discussed during the game, by the commentators. And Miller's production, outside of his fumble, was strong at 5.3 YPC. Moreno was like 5.5 ypc. So it wasn't based on production. Both had big days.

    3). Joe Philbin has discussed his preference for the two back system. He believes the two back system keeps the runners fresh. It's also an attempt to minimize injury over the course of the season. And lastly, different running styles (power vs. speed) gives the defense different looks and keeps them off-balance. This according to our HC, who has been saying this since 2012 back when Miller was 3rd string.


    [DukeNukemVoice]Damn, I'm good[/DukeNukemVoice]
     
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  3. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Lamar Miller is one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL based on 2014.

    - Converted 82% of first downs on 3 and 1.
    - Converted 70% of his first downs on 3rd and 3.
    - More than half of his carries went for 4 yards.
    - 40% of his carries went for 5 yards or more.

    All the while Miami had one of the worst run blocking lines in football. If Lamar Miller loses playing time, it's because of his blocking and receiving ability (both he claims have improved). Not his rushing ability. Ajayi is going to have to be damn good to stop Miller from getting 215-230 carries. Real ****ing good. Pro Bowl caliber good, because that's the level where Lamar is at right now.
     
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  4. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm saying that Miller isn't a guy who breaks tackles or makes people miss. When you get late in the game and you want to run out the clock and control the game and your opponent knows that's what you want to do then your back has to either break tackles or make people miss. The defense knows you're running so you're not going to have a numbers advantage or be able to spread them out. Miller wasn't that guy two years ago or last year even with a fluctuation in average. If he does it this year then he'll have to be a different back than he was the last two years.
     
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  5. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Running back claims running back didn't lose speed.

    And you see how slow he was. 8 lbs on a thin frame like Miller is significant when speed, not power, is his game. Miller was good last year, nobody disputes that. But he wasn't a workhorse.

    Because they haven't ran him like a workhorse.

    We've had the same coaches since 2008?


    So you present evidence of Charles's workhorse workload in 2012, as evidence that Charles is not a workhorse ... Prior to this past year, Charles had around 330 touches in 2012 and 2013. If you followed Charles at all you'd know he was hobbled in several games, having to miss one and then battled ankle, knee and hamstring issues all year. You'd know this if you were making an informed argument. Suffered a knee, then ankle injury in December but played through it. Elbow and shoulder in Nov. Listed with a back injury in Oct., as well as a head injury (helmet to helmet).

    Despite all of that ... still about the same touches as Miller. Tell you something? Also of note, Jamaal Charles is "losing" weight this year to be quicker and faster. Let's see who is more successful in their approach this year.

    Our pass game only struggled against NE in the first game? Never struggled again all year? Amazing.
    11 for 59 is not a big day. It's an efficient day save for the fumble.

    So when Moreno went out, and Miller was now the #1, of course Miller had plenty of 24 carry games. So I guess we're debating over nothing. Let me see how many 24 carry games Miller had. Oh wait, he didn't, because our passing game never struggled again.

    A two back system doesn't preclude a running back from getting 20 carries a game. A two back system with Moreno in it produced 35 carries, 24 to Moreno, 11 to Miller.

    I'd say delusional more like it ;)
     
  6. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And who is to say that Moreno would have replicated week 1 on a consistent basis? Denver would not have let him get away if that was the case. Look, I liked Moreno as much as the next guy but we cannot keep comparing Miller to him when Miller was consistent and played every week and Moreno, for all intents and purposes was a one week wonder for us.
     
  7. The Sportz Guy

    The Sportz Guy New Member

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    Technically, I'd say no. I believe the offensive line is the bigger key for success. We're all painfully aware of the struggle there -- especially at OG -- so if Miami can get at least decent to good production, that will be HUGE. A rushing attack in the NFL is essentially based on the offensive line's effectiveness, too, so Lamar can be individually playing well, but if the holes aren't there, the holes aren't there.

    Also, I say no because of the presence of Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams. I think Ajayi could start right away and do great without Miller in the mix. But that's not my call, soooo....

    If you're saying Lamar individually, no. If you're saying the running game in general, I'd say it's close.
     
  8. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    He didn't look slow at all.

    Because we throw the ball 37 times a game. We're a passing offense. Take it up with Philbin if you have a problem with that.

    Does it matter? Both coaches ran a 2 back system.

    You're missing the point. KC limited Charles to keep him fresh and healthy. They've been cutting back, purposefully. He hasn't started 16 games in a few years because of those injuries. One of the benefits of the two back system. And if you were making an informed argument, you would know about Lamar's shoulder injury, which limited him too. Quit making excuses to support a bs argument.

    Ok...



    5.4 yards per carry, running at will, is not a big day... Right. Add in 20 yards receiving and a TD too. You're purposefully confusing volume w/productivity.

    We never ran on teams at will like we did in week 1. And one of the biggest complaints the fans had was Lazor's inconsistency to stick with the running game when it was effective. Lamar would be getting 4-5 yards a pop and we would just stop running. More than 50% of his carries went for 4 yards or more.

    We are a PASSING TEAM. That's what the owner, HC, and OC want. I caps locked that for you. So you don't miss it again. How many times did Miami fans complain at the lack of carries Miller was getting, in favor of passing? Like it or not, that's what this offense is designed to do. And the only reason Moreno got 24 carries was because Miller was benched. That number would of been closer to 50/50 otherwise.

    You're creating a narrative out of thin air, that can't be supported. The entire basis of your argument is based on Lamar's YPC on carries 11-20. The sample size is too small to be meaningful. That's a fact. And in the year previous, Lamar's carries 11-20 showed him getting stronger. Neither is statistically relevant because the sample size is too small. Yet, you have decided that Lamar Miller is incapable of getting 20 carries a game simply because he doesn't. The argument you're creating is completely potato. Period. Done.

    /end conversation.
     
  9. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    It's not just about Gordon, we didn't really do much to improve the blockers up front either.
     
  10. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    How much faith does the team really have in Lamar? They wanted to use their first pick on a RB.
     
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  11. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    I think you mean, YOU wanted to use our first pick on a runner. Devante Parker was our guy.
     
  12. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    After Gurley was off the board.
     
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  13. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    Miller bulked up. I hope he gets a few more touches this year considering his YPC for his career 4.6.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The sample size alone doesn't give you enough information to determine whether one can say there is a statistically significant difference between the two datasets. You need the standard deviations of the two sets (at a minimum) in addition to the means and sample sizes. There are statistical tests that can then (even with unequal sample sizes) determine whether there is a significant difference between the two means.

    Problem here is I can't find every run by Miller in 2014 so that I can calculate the standard deviations. If someone can find that, I can run a test to see what stats says about this. In any case, it's important to remember that in general you need more info than just the sample size to determine whether statistics says anything about significance.
     
  15. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just maybe, Williams or Ajayi will be that 4th 1/4 bruiser that we need but to discount Lamar Miller's upward trend since he was drafted, to last year's awesome season, I don't really understand why some try and find his worst numbers to post. He is a great part of our offense and he will do what he does best and the others will provide the power y'all say he does not have. Some of you may not remember how many years, and I mean many, that we went without a 1000 yard rusher.......Now Miller makes the fourth in a row and everyone wants to forget our years of trouble running the ball and talk about Miller's numbers like they were nothing. I think that Miller has earned our respect and should get it. Think about it guys.:up:
     
  16. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    is he "THE KEY"? no. the coaching staff and defense not ****ting the bed and giving up 3-4 games is "THE KEY"
     
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  17. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe both
     
  18. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I thought the responses and analysis were very fair. Miller was an efficient runner who hasn't shown the capability to take over a game. He seems like a great change of pace guy but not a bell cow. I don't see that as not giving respect. I see that as being honest about what Miller has shown and what he hasn't.
     
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  19. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ok Rafs....Fair enough.....I went back and reread your post and I realized exactly that.:up:
     
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  20. ASUFinFan

    ASUFinFan Uh huh

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    Wow, you took me back to 2000. Half my life ago....Really depressing. I remember that Lamar showdown like it was yesterday.
     
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  21. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Wanting an explosive back to pair with an already established running back is hardly showing a lack of faith. It's 2015. Pretty much everyone uses multiple running backs in order to keep guys fresh.

    I would have loved Gurley too. But not because I don't believe in Lamar Miller, because BOTH Gurley and Miller would have been a great 1-2 punch.
     
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  22. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    How much faith can they possibly have in him when they've been reluctant to give him a heavy workload and they were going to use their 1st pick on a RB coming off a major injury? Good chance Lamar would've had the same reaction as this guy:

    http://fansided.com/2015/05/01/tre-mason-angry-rams-draft-todd-gurley/
     
  23. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    I thought the consensus was saying they are going to pick Parker all along?
     
  24. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    lbfinest has a hardon for gurley and gordon, just ignore him like everyone else. the pick was parker, always going to be parker.
     
  25. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No, actually they were going Gurley if he would have still been on the board...per Ross...once Gurley came off the board we went with our next favorite....Parker.
     
  26. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I cringe when people say Miller needs more carries, he averaged 5.1 YPC so and so. The reality is that Miller was effiecient in no small part BECAUSE his carries were limited. The idea that he could have run for 1600 yards on 20 carries per game implies that the coaches held him back, basically in an attempt to lose games. Denver, Detroit, GB, NY, for example.

    Moving forward the ideal situation is to keep Miller at or near his production/usage levels from 2014 while finding a quality back to keep the running game viable through ought the game/season.
     
  27. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No, they admitted they wanted Gurley. But it doesn't have to mean anything beyond they saw Gurley and Parker as special players (Gurley as more special).
     
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  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But you don't draft a Gurley if you have Jamaal Charles or a Marshawn Lynch in his prime, etc. etc. Lamar Miller is good. This staff doesn't think he's a bell cow.
     
  29. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    he'll have a better nfl career than gurley and gordon at least. gurley if treated as a bell cow will be injured by the 2nd qtr of the game. and gordon is going to find out the chargers o-line isn't wisonsin's.
     
  30. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is there anyone on the team that you do like? I am just curious, because all you do is complain about every player that comes up for discussion and when you are asked about those feelings you go silent...I got ya, you just like to lay in the shadows and strike and then go on ignore until you are ready to come out of the shadows again.
     

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